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1 p
ICT market development in Lithuania: ICT market development in Lithuania: current status and future prospectscurrent status and future prospects
Diana KorsakaitėDirector of Strategy Department
Communications Regulatory Authority
16 May, 2006, Vilnius
2 p
… 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
New regulatory framework in EU
Law on Radio Communications (no longer in force)
Law on Provision of Information to the Public
Law on the National Radio and Television
European Convention on Transfrontier Television
Conceptual Framework of the National Information Society Development of Lithuania (Government Resolution)
Strategy for the Assignment of Radio Frequencies to Broadcasting and Transmission of Radio and Television Broadcasts (Government Resolution)
Law on Legal Protection of Personal data
Law on Telecommunications (no longer in force)
Law on Electronic Signature
Control of the off-the-record information in computer networks of public usage and rules of distribution of limited public information (Government Resolution)
Order of Minister of Economy regarding the regulation of provision of some services of information society, especially of electronic commerce, in internal market
IICTCT Market Development: Market Development: Legal Aspects
Order of Director of the RRT Concerning the Approval of the Rules for Allocating and Using of Radio Frequencies / Channels
Law (revised) on Telecommunications (no longer in force)
Strategic Plan of the Development of Information Society in Lithuania (Government Resolution)
Directive 1999/93/EC on Electronic Signature
Law on Communications (no longer in force)
“Television without Frontiers” Directive 89/552/EC (amended by Directive 97/36/EC on 30 June 1997)
Directive 2000/31/EC on Electronic Commerce
3 p
IICTCT Market Development: Market Development: Legal AspectsLegal Aspects
Model of Implementation of Digital Television in Lithuania (Government Resolution)
2003 2004 2005
Law on Electronic Communications
Law concerning the ratification of the Convention on Electronic Crimes Order of Director of
RRT on Digital Terrestrial Television Development Plan
Strategy of the Development of Informational Society of Lithuania (Government Resolution)
National Radio Frequency Allocation Table (Government Resolution)
In the nearest future
Strategic Plan for the Assignment of Radio Frequencies to Broadcasting and Transmission of Radio and Television Broadcasts
Law on Services of Information Society
Order of Director of the RRT on Allocation of UMTS Frequencies / Channels
Law on Amendment of Republic of Lithuania Law on Provision of Information to the Public
Order of Director of the RRT Concerning the Approval of the Plan of Development of Radio Communications in 3,410 – 3,800 MHz Frequencies (Channels) Bandwith
4 p
Lithuanian context:
• ICT represents 8,72 % of Lithuanian GDP and approximates or even exceeds other traditionally important sectors
European context:
• ICT represents 6-8% of GDP in EU, but it determines
• EU productivity’s growth by 40% and
• EU GDP’s growth by 25 %.
0.10% 0.50%
4.40%
8.72%
0.70%0.10%
7.70%
3.80%
8.06%
5.80%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
Agriculture, forestry, hunting Fishery Mining and quarrying Electricity, gas and w atersupply
ICT
2000 2004
Trends are the same as in other EU Member States
IICTCT Market Development: Market Development: General OutlookGeneral Outlook
5 p
IICTCT Market Development: Market Development: General OutlookGeneral Outlook
1 Jan 2003 - electronic market liberalization de jure
Leading operators’ market shares continue to decline and a steady growth of new market players’ market shares indicates decreased market power of the incumbent operators
Lithuania was one of the first EU countries to refuse the licensing system and to move to the general authorization system in the telecommunication sector
Fully implemented fixed and mobile number portability and carrier selection and pre-selection stimulates competition as well
Radio spectrum policy and effective management boosts successful development of wireless technologies
Low administrative charges have created preconditions for the lowest service prices on the retail market as ITU indicates
6 p
Electronic communication market is a fast developing sector, whose main driving forces are competition, general authorization regime and technological changes
IICTCT Market Development: Market Development: General OutlookGeneral Outlook
Growth of Lithuania’s GDP and electronic communications sector (comparing with the corresponding time period of the previous year)
Source: Statistics Lithuania, RRT
Even though the prices of communication services have been falling down the growth of the sector is substantial
Electronic communications market’s share within Lithuania’s GDP structure in average amounted to 3,5 %.
Lithuania’s electronic communications market grew by 11.9 % in 2005 (comparing with 2004) and amounted 2.391 billion LTL in 2004*
* Revenues from data transmission, cable TV, MMDS, radio and TV transmission and cable radio are not included
8,09
11,6512,75
14,53
5,16 5,08
10,91
13,62
1
5
9
13
17
Ist half2004
II half 2004 I half 2005 II half 2005
GDP grow th, % Sector's grow th, %
7 p
IICTCT Market Development: Market Development: General OutlookGeneral Outlook
Source: RRT
20292137
2516737
671
387
310273 277
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Y 2
000
Y 2
001
Y 2
002
Y 2
003
Y 2
004
Y 2
005
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Total revenues from electronic communicationsmarketInvestment into the electronic communicationsinfrastructure
Electronic communications sector value and infrastructure investment dynamics in 2000-2005, LTL million
Investments Market StructureDistribution of 2003–2005 revenues according to the separate electronic communications sector markets, %
26,66
24,21
21,91
20,74
17,87
16,77
48,23
50,50
51,67
50,80
46,29
46,83
6,19
6,9
8,08
7,83
9,25
18,03
17,92
18,3
19,17
21,88
21,37
5,71
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
1st half of 2003
2nd half of 2003
1st half of 2004
2nd half of 2004
1st half of 2005
2nd half of 2005
Fixed telephone communication Mobile telephone communicationLeased lines Internet accessAudiovisual services Netw orks interconnectionData transmission
Source: RRT
8 p
Mobile Communications Segment: Mobile Communications Segment: a Success Storya Success Story
Source: RRT
"The direct economic contribution of industries using the radio spectrum is already considerable, between 1 and 2% of national GDP in the EU,…" said Viviane Reding, DG InfSo.
In 2004-2005 growth of mobile communications penetration of in Lithuania was the fastest among all the EU Member States
Penetration of mobile communication was the highest in the world in December 2005
54,1 75
,0
61,0 89
,2
103,
1
127,
7
28,5
47,656,0
63,0
79,9
99,9
119,2
153,4
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2001,2 H
2002,2 H
2003,1 H
2003,2 H
2004,1 H
2004,2 H
2005,1 H
2005,2 H
Penetration against the active subscribersPenetration against all the subscribers
Mobile communication penetration growth in Lithuania in 2002-2005, %
112.26%
116.39%
116.49%
117.16%
125.12%
127.80%
128.04%
131.10%
131.95%
138.53%
100% 110% 120% 130% 140%
Hong Kong
Macau
Bahrein
Italy
Cyprus
Israel
Netherlands
Barbados
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Countries with highest penetration rates in the world as of December of 2005
Source: Informa Telecoms & Media.
Mobile communication revenues in 2002-2005, mln.LT
610566559528527
475
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2003,
1 H
2003,
2 H
2004,
1 H
2004,
2 H
2005,
1 H
2005,
2 H
Source: RRT
9 p
1994-10
GSM 900
Omnitel
Commercial GSM services
Omnitel
1995-03
1995-05
GSM 900
Bite GSM
Commercial GSM services
Bite GSM
1995-101998-09
DCS 1800
Bite GSM
DCS 1800
Omnitel
DCS 1800
Tele2
GSM 900
Tele2
2001-01
Commercial GSM services
Tele2
2000-05
GPRS services
2001-02
GPRS flat rate
2002-07
2005-09
Live TV broadca
sting
EDGE services
2003-12
Live TV broadca
sting
2005-09
EGDE services
2003-12
GPRS services
2001-10
Mobile internet
2005-03
GPRS flat rate
2002-10
MMS services
MMS services
2002-09
Mobile internet
2005-02
GPRS services
2004-07
TV via mobile
2005-04
3G trial
2004-10
3G
3G
3G
2006
NMT
MMDSFWA
MMDS
HDTV trial
Mobile Communications Segment: Mobile Communications Segment: a Success Storya Success Story
… and all that is just 10 years’ story …
10 p0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2003 I-II Q 2003 III-IVQ
2004 I Q 2004 II Q 2004 III Q 2004 IV Q 2005 I Q 2005 II Q
Fixed Mobile
Mobile Communications Segment: Mobile Communications Segment: a Success Storya Success Story
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 0101
2001 0101
2002 0101
2003 0101
2004 0101
2005 0101
2005 0701
Mobile telephony penetration Fixed telephony penetration
2. Voice is going mobile
1. Users are going mobile
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2003 07 01 2004 07 01 2005 01 01 2005 07 01
Other
LL
Fiber optic
WLA
LAN
CaTV
xDSL
Dial - up
Mobile
3. Data is going mobile… having a clear tendency of going mobile …
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
150000
175000
200000
2003 07-01
2004 01-01
2004 04-01
2004 07-01
2004 10-01
2005 01-01
2005 04-01
2005 07-01
Other
LL
Fiber optic
WLA
LAN
CaTV
xDSL
11 p
Mobile Communications Segment: Mobile Communications Segment: a Success Storya Success Story
4. Media is going mobile
12 p
Mobile Communications Segment: Mobile Communications Segment: a Success Storya Success Story
Let’s sum up
2,6
times
32%
# of mobile operators
and services providers
(from 3 to 8)
Mobile business revenues,
LTL
# of mobile subscribers
Initiated traffic, min.
SMS, units
MMS, units
ARPU
Mobile market indicators 2004 in comparison to 2003
# of GPRS subscribers
8,52
%
57,68
%
18,4
times
6,8
times
31,99
%
54,68
%
13 p
Mobile Communications Segment: Mobile Communications Segment: a Success Story to be Continueda Success Story to be Continued
UMTS development:In beginning of 2006, UAB „Omnitel”, UAB „Bitė Lietuva” ir UAB „Tele2” were provided with a right to use radio frequencies in the UMTS bandwidth to build UMTS networks3G services are provided in the market since I quarter of 2006.
By now, 3G communication is provided in 8 cities and cover ~25 % of Lithuanian population;In 2007, 3G will be available to more than 50 % of Lithuanian population, and in 2008 – 75 %.
The new services being offered by 3G operators include high speed internet access, information services, news, video messaging or conversations, games and music downloads
Cheaper and smaller handsets for 3G available on the market are expected to be significant drivers of 3G take-up
Wireless broadband services in 3,5 GHz, 10 GHz, 26 GHZ, 28 GHz :Plan for development of 3,5 GHz was publicly consulted, and soon a relevant order will be issued;
In 2005, 2 operators had permissions to make activities in 3,5 GHz and 2 operators - in 10,5 GHz;4 operators had permissions to make activities in 26 GHz.
14 p
Fixed Communication Segment: Fixed Communication Segment: In Search for New OpportunitiesIn Search for New Opportunities
Source: RRT
• The number of fixed telephone subscribers is reducing
• The subscribers’ structure remains sufficiently stable – residential users form more than 90 %
Fixed telephone communication market revenue dynamics, 1998-2005, LTL thousand
443,
65
462,
60
809,
40
648,
00
619,
00 804,
70
658,
20
515,
30
0
200
400
600
800
1998* 1999* 2000* 2001* 2002* 2003 2004 2005
56,9% 57,3% 56,0% 54,7% 53,9% 54,0%
45,0%46,5%47,3%48,6%52,5%51,6%
32,0%35,4%
36,2%38,2%38,9%39,4%
23,5%23,9%23,9%27,0%
33,1%34,0%
10%
30%
50%
70%
Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Oct-05
The EU-25 The EU-15
The EU-10 Lithuania
Sources: ANACOM, ITU, Regulatel, RRT.
Fixed telephone communication penetration dynamics in 2001–2005, %
Market share of new entrants, 2004-2005, %
3,84
%
4,63
%
5,02
%
5,65
%
5,50
%
6,25
%
6,31
%
6,45
%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2004, 1Q
2004, 2Q
2004, 3Q
2004, 4Q
2005, 1Q
2005, 2Q
2005, 3Q
2005, 4Q
Source: RRT
15 p
2003 2005
Live reality broadcasting over IP – dedicated to
special projects
ATM
1998
Privatization
199919981996
Frame Relay Internet dial-up
“Takas”
ISDN
Centrex
1999
xDSL
2001
MPLS VPN over IP
2002 2003
WLAN
2005
DVBT broadcasting:
license
2000
PSTN network
Since 1896
Fixed Communication Segment: Fixed Communication Segment: In Search for New OpportunitiesIn Search for New Opportunities
16 p
Internet Access Segment Internet Access Segment as a Step Into Broadbandas a Step Into Broadband
Source: RRT
Internet access market is one of the fastest growing sectors and is attractive for business in a long term perspective
31,7
2,7 4,77,9
14,9
18,6
0
10
20
30
40
1st halfof 2003
2nd halfof 2003
1st halfof 2004
2nd halfof 2004
1st halfof 2005
2nd halfof 2005
Penetration per 100 inhabitants
Internet penetration dynamics in 2003-2005, %
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1st halfof
2003
2ndhalf of2003
1st halfof
2004
2ndhalf of2004
1st halfof
2005
2ndhalf of2005
Omnitel Bitė Lietuva
Lietuvos Telekomas Others
Internet access service providers market shares according to the revenue in 2003-2005, per cent
Source: RRT
Active market entities, 2005
Source: RRT
188
24
10 15
98
40
10 15
115
60
11
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Fiksuotas ryšys Judrusis ryšys Skirtosios linijos Interneto prieiga
2003 2004 2005
17 p
A significant part of Lithuanian territory is covered by EDGE networks
UAB „Omnitel“ EDGE network, 2005 Source: www.omnitel.lt
UAB „Bitė Lietuva“ EDGE network, 2005 Source: www.bite.lt
Internet Access Segment Internet Access Segment as a Step Into Broadbandas a Step Into Broadband
18 p
Broadband Communications Segment: Broadband Communications Segment: a New Stara New Star
Source: World Broadband Statistics Q1 2005 // Point Topic Ltd., 2005.
Each year the broadband communication penetration in Lithuania nearly doubles (during 2005 the number of broadband Internet access subscribers grew by 81.4 %)
Broadband communication penetration dynamics in 2003-2005, %
Source: RRT
6.90%
1.11%1.94%
2.56%
3.75%
5.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
1st halfof 2003
2nd halfof 2003
1st halfof 2004
2nd halfof 2004
1st halfof 2005
2nd halfof 2005
0 10 20 30 40 50
Turkey
Thailand
Poland
Czech Republic
Lithuania
Slovenia
Australia
Venezuela
New Zealand
Mexico
The ten world’s countries with fastest growing broadband penetration, as of 1st Q, 2005
19 p
Broadband Communications Segment: Broadband Communications Segment: a New Stara New Star
Source: RRT
2004 2005
Broadband penetration, 144 kbps and more
At the end of 2005 the broadband communication, according to its provision feasibilities was available to the absolute majority of Lithuania’s residents and organizations.
20 p
Broadband Communications Segment: Broadband Communications Segment: a New Stara New Star
Source: European Electronic Communications Regulation and Markets 2005 (11th Report), European Commission, Brussels, 2006.
Competition between technologies in Lithuania in the broadband communications market is the most intense in the whole EU
5756
5244434342
40383737
3535
3128
2423
1821
11
66
432
0 25 50 75 100
Lithuania
Czech Republic
Estonia
Austria
Portugal
Latvia
Malta
Netherlands
Belgium
Denmark
Slovenia
Sweden
Hungary
Poland
The UK
Ireland
Spain
Finland
Slovakia
Luxembourg
France
Italy
Cyprus
Germany
Greece
Other technologies xDSL
xDSL44,76%
LAN20,21% Cable TV
netw orks21,19%
Wireless communica
tion netw orks
7,66%Leased lines
0,61%
Other0,04%
Optical f ibre
cables5,53%
Distribution of subscribers against the broadband technologies in Lithuania 2005, %
Source: RRT
21 p
2004
Fixed IP-telephony
2004
Digital broadcasting
1989
First Cable TV network
2002
Internet via cable modem
2001
Internet via broadcasting
network
2003
Fixed telephony
Terrestrial broadcasting
networkSince 1945
Audiovisual Communications Segment: Audiovisual Communications Segment: Major Changes AheadMajor Changes Ahead
22 p
Audiovisual Communications Segment: Audiovisual Communications Segment: Major Changes AheadMajor Changes Ahead
In 2003 first transmissions in DVB-T format started by LRTC;
In 2005, digital TV station broadcasted 5 TV programs in Vilnius;
In 2005, DVBT transmission licenses were distributed and two operators have commenced to develop digital TV infrastructure:
Before 2006 June 30, digital TV transmitters will be installed in Vilnius,
Before 2007 December 31, digital TV transmitters will be installed in five largest cities;
Before start-2009, at least one digital TV network will cover not less than 95% of the territory of Lithuania.
Starting from 2012 – a gradual switch-off of the analogue TV shall be commenced in Lithuania
23 p
Envisaged coverage by digital TV (DVB-T) networks
LRTC networks
Lietuvos telekomas’ networks
Audiovisual Communications Segment: Audiovisual Communications Segment: Major Changes AheadMajor Changes Ahead
24 p
Instead of ConclusionsInstead of Conclusions
ICT sector in Lithuania if fully open;
ICT market trends:
Going to data
Going to wireless and mobile
Going to converged networks and services
Going to accessibility and affordability to everyone
ICT market prospects:
New technologies already on their way will make tremendous shifts in the established market structure
Liberal view with regard to experimental use of certain bands for demanding entities allow to check possibilities to use implement new technologies
Regulatory issues:
Alteration of the whole regulatory system to the changes in the sector
Apropos pro-/re- action to new threats in the electronic medium
Gradual introduction of spectrum trading
Wise management of radio resources: relevant spectrum ranges for new – more efficient – technologies to be ready timely without delay
26 p
NELICENCIJUOJAMI DAŽNIAI LICENCIJUOJAMI DAŽNIAI
GHz
17
.1
17
.3
43
.5
47
.2
24
.5
48
.2
26
.52
7.5
29
.52.4
2.4
84
3.4
1
HAPS
3.8
5.1
5
5.7
25
10
.15
10
.66
40
.5
2,4-2,4835 RLAN plačiai panaudojami
3,41-3,6 aktyviai naudojami
3,6-3,8 rezervuota, 2006 bus parengta BFWA
5,15-5,725 RLAN pilnai neišnaudojamas
10,15-10,66 panaudojama 75 %
17,1-17,3 RLAN praktiškai nenaudojama
24,5-26,5 panaudojama 78 %
27,5-29,5 panaudojama 43 %
40,5-43,5 nenaudojama
Vis dar galimas efektyvesnis radijo spektro panaudojimas.
Dažnių valdymas
27 p
Konkursai 2006 m.
Papildomi dažniai plėtrai
Rezervuota UMTS TDD
Reservuota palydovinio ryšio reikmėms
19
00
19
20
19
80
22
00
25
00
21
10
21
70
26
90
20
10
20
25
Nuo 2012 m. bus skirtas IMT-2000 ir
techniškai suderinamoms judriojo ryšio
technologijoms
Žemesnių dažnių spektro dalis vis dar išlieka užimta senesnių ir mažiau efektyvių technologijų. Tuo tarpu naujoms technologijoms prieinama tik aukštesnių dažnių sritis, kurios įsisavinimui reikalingi didesni ištekliai.
Į žymią radijo spektro dalį, įskaitant maždaug trečdalį žemiau 3 GHz esančio spektro, kuris geriausiai tinka antžeminėms ryšių sistemoms, teisės potencialiai gali tapti perleidžiamomis iki 2010 metų.
Dažnių valdymas