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NASA Future Suborbital Activities MeetingVirginia Beach, VAMarch 8-9, 2007
Future Stratosphere/Troposphere Research with Suborbital Platforms
David FaheyNOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
Boulder, CO
and
Elliot WeinstockThomas Hanisco
Harvard UniversityCambridge, MA
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How will UT/S ozone and surface UV respond to climate
variability and change?
Future UT/S ozone amounts are the bellwether of
UT/S climate change. Developing skill for ozone
changes will require understanding of a broad range
of processes.
Major science question
Unifying theme for UT/S measurementsfrom orbital and suborbital platforms
Unifying theme for 2-D, CTM and CCM modeling efforts
Stratosphere/Troposphere Research with Suborbital Platforms
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NASA Future Suborbital Activities Meeting, VA Beach, March 2007
How will UT/S ozone and surface UV respond to climate variability and change? Research topics: • Ozone radiative forcing and sensitivity • Future UT/S ozone distribution
- Temp erature - Humidity - Convection and lightning - Pollution: NOx and VOCs - Photochemistry and transport - Strat-trop exchange
• Microphysical and chemical properties of aerosols Black carbon Sulfate aerosol and new particle formation
• Water vapor and relative humidity distributions
- Transport and dynamics - Trends in water vapor, tropopause height and temperature - Cloud formation processes
• TTL ozone photochemistry • UV dosage forecast
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Figure SPM-2
IPCC Summary for Policymakers, AR4, 2007.
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Ozone Radiative Heating and Climate Change Sensitivity
Portmann et al., GRL, 2007
Forster and Shine, JGR, 1997
10 DU/km change 10%/km change
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Figure 1. Annual and zonal mean distribution of O3 for 2000 (a); annual and zonal mean changes in O3 (b) between 2000 and 2100 without climate change (B–A); (c) between 2000 and 2100 with a double CO2 climate (C–A); and (d) between 2100 and 2100 with a double CO2 climate (C–B). Units in ppbv. Thick line shown is the contour of 150 ppbv O3, a conventional measure of the chemical tropopause.
Zeng and Pyle GRL 2003.
Trends in Future Ozone Amounts
Year 2000 ozone values (ppbv)
Year 2100-2000 ozone values (ppbv)- x 2 CO2- STE increases by 80%- PO3 increased by 25% in troposphere
7Tropopause height above all 11 million NLDN cloud-to-ground lightning flashes during July, 2006
Two recent studies have demonstrated through measurements and modeling that an upper tropospheric ozone maximum exists above the southern USA during summer.
Anthropogenic emissions and subsequent free tropospheric ozone production are partly responsible.
However most of the enhancement is due to ozone production from lightning NOx emissions that overwhelmingly dominate the upper tropospheric NOx budget in summer.
Li et al. (2005), North American pollution outflow and the trapping of convectively lifted pollution by upper-level anticyclone, JGR
Cooper et al. (2006), Large upper tropospheric ozone enhancements above midlatitude North America during summer, JGR
ECMWF tropopause height, 00 UTC July 10, 2006, with NLDN lightning flashes overlain. Histogram shows tropopause height above the flashes.
Average ozone within the troposphere at 10-11 km, August, 2006, contoured from daily IONS ozonesonde measurements.
Owen Cooper, 2007
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Glory Satellite: Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor Total Irradiance Monitor(Scheduled for 2008)
Orbital and Suborbital Platforms
WB-57FDC-8ER-2P3G-VsUAS
9Earth Science Applications from Space, NRC, 2007
Table 9.2 Status of major climate variables and forcing factors
• Total solar irradiance• Earth radiation budget• Surface radiation budget• Tropospheric aerosols• Stratospheric aerosols
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• Cloud properties• Ozone: strat and trop• Trace gases controlling ozone• CO2• CH4
Table 9.2 Status of major climate variables and forcing factors
Earth Science Applications from Space, NRC, 2007
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Science priorities driven by societal needs
• Human health• Climate and its
coupling to chemistry, radiation and dynamics
• Water resources• Weather and severe
storms• Solid Earth hazards• Land use,
Ecosystems,
• Airborne and water borne toxicity
• UV dosage levels• Optical properties of
the atmosphere and link to climate
• Regional temperatures, hurricane intensity, optical properties of atmosphere
• Earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis
• Isotopes, radicals, reactive intermediates
• Nitrate, sulfate, organics, heavy metal effluents globally
• Cloud properties, aerosol composition, size, surface properties
Decision Structures in Service to Society
for:
Required Forecasts:Critical Observations to Specifically Test Forecast Credibility
Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond, National Research Council, 2007
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Mechanisms describing the exchange between the troposphere and stratosphere must be quantified using a combination of isotopes, long-lived tracers, and reactive intermediates.
Transport and dynamics of water vapor and trace species
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Stratospheric water vapor
How will the irreversible flux of water vapor into the stratosphere change given increased forcing of the climate system by CO2, CH4, etc?
To what degree is stratospheric water influenced by tropopause temperatures and by deep convection?What controls the relative humidity at which ice particles form, grow, and are maintained?How do these processes influence stratospheric water and cloud radiative properties?
Discrepancies between in situ, frost point, and remote observations must be resolved.
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The role of convective injection of short-lived compounds through the tropical tropopause and at midlatitude continental sites must be established.
TTL photochemistry
What short-lived trace species are convected to the TTL?H2COH2O2
(CH3)2COPANPNACH3BrCH3I…? Wennberg et al., 1998
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Catalytic destruction of ozone under conditions of low temperature and elevated water vapor by halogen radicals must be determined by observing the ClO, BrO and IO concentrations in the lower stratosphere in the presence of elevated water vapor concentrations.
UV dosage forecast
An
nu
al m
ea
n O
3 a
no
ma
ly (
%)
WMO, 2006
Salawitch, et al., (2005), GRL
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Recommended Satellite Observations:Collaborative science requires a sophisticated airborne
payload
Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond, National Research Council, 2007