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Methodology to model the future energy scenario for China
Kejun [email protected]
Energy Research Institute, China
UNFCCC Workshop on emissions projections of Annex I Parties
6-8 September 2004Wissenschaftszentrum Bonn
ERI, ChinaERI, China
2
Framework of IPAC
ERI, ChinaERI, China
IPAC-SGM
IPAC-AIM/tech
IPAC-Emission
IPAC/Tech
IPAC-TIMER
IPAC/AIM-Local
Energy demand and supplyPrice/investmentEconomic impactMedium/long-term analysis
Medium/short term analysisTechnology assessmentDetailed technology flow
Region analysisMedium/short analysisEnergy demand and supplyTechnology policy
IPAC-MATERIAL
Energy demand and supplyFull range emissionPrice, resource, technologyMedium-long term analysisEconomic impact
Environment industryPollutant emissionMedium/long-term analysis
Technology developmentEnvironment impactTechnology policy
AIM-air IPAC-health
Energy demand and supplyPrice/investmentMedium/long-term analysis
3
Understand future energy: a multiple model approach
IPAC-AIM/technology model: Bottom-up model for China
IPAC-emission model: global model IPAC-SGM: CGE model IPAC-Ele: power generation model IPAC-AIM/transport IPAC-AIM/local: regional model for China
4
Linkage in IPAC
Common parameters
Bottom-up modelAIM/TechMESSAGEAIM/Local
Top-DownSGMTIMERIGEM
IPAC-e
Technology strategy
Environment economyEnergy Strategy
sectors
Energy and Emission scenario
Dynamic economy
General equilibrium
Parameter
Common scenario
Regions/Beijing
IPAC-Air
IPAC-Health
5
ERI: IPAC-AIM/Technology model
Bottom-up model for China 26 sectors Least cost option model More than 500 technologies Medium-term scenario(2030)
6Structure of IPAC- AIM/ Technology model
Energy Energy Technology Energy Service
- Oil- Coal- Gas- Solar- (Electricity)
- Boiler- Power generation- Blast furnace- Air conditioner- Automobile
- Heating- Lighting- Steel products- Cooling- Transportation
Energy Database for China Technology Database for China
- Population growth- Economic growth- Industrial structure- Employees- Lifestyle
- Energy type- Energy price- Energy constraints- CO2 emission factor
- Technology price- Energy consumption- Service supplied- Share- Lifetime
Socio-economic Scenario for China
Service DemandsTechnology Selection
Energy ConsumptionCO2 Emissions
Structure of IPAC-AIM/Technology Model
7
Classification Technologies (equipment)& Steel Coke oven, Sintering machine, Blast furnace, Open hearth furnace (OH), Basic oxygen furnace (BOF), AC-electric arc
furnace, DC-electric arc furnace, Ingot casting machine, Continuous casting machine, Continuous casting machine withrolling machine, steel rolling machine, Continuous steel rolling machine, Equipment of coke dry quenching, Equipmentof coke wet quenching, Electric power generated with residue pressure on top of blast furnace (TRT), Equipment ofcoke oven gas, OH gas and BOF gas recovery, Equipment of co-generation.
errous metal Aluminum production with sintering process, Aluminum production with combination process, Aluminum with Bayer,Electrolytic aluminum with upper-insert cell, Electrolytic aluminum with side-insert cell, crude copper production withflash furnace, crude copper production with electric furnace, Blast furnace, Reverberator furnace, Lead smelting-sintering in blast furnace, Lead smelting with closed blast furnace, Zinc smelting with wet method, Zinc smelting withvertical pot method.
ing materials Cement: Mechanized shaft kiln, Ordinary shaft kiln, Wet process kiln, Lepol kiln, Ling dry kiln, Rotary kiln with pro-heater, dry process rotary kiln with pre-calciner, Self-owned electric power generator, Electric power generator withresidue heat; Brick & Tile: Hoffman kiln, Tunnel kiln;Lime: Ordinary shaft kiln, Mechanized shaft kiln; Glass: Floating process, Vertical process, Colburn process, Smelter.
ical industry Equipment of synthetic ammonia production: Converter, Gasification furnace, Gas-making furnace, Synthetic column,Shifting equipment of sulphur removing; Equipment of caustic soda production: Electronic cell with graphite process,Two-stage effects evaporator, Multi-stage effects evaporator, Equipment of rectification, Ion membrane method;Calcium Carbine production: Limestone calciner, Closed carbine furnace, Open carbine furnace, Equipment of residueheat recovery; Soda ash production: Ammonia & salt water preparation, limestone calcining, distillation column, filter;Fertilizer production: Equipment of organic products production, Equipment of residue heat utilization
chemical Industry Facilities of atmospheric & vacuum distillation, Facilities of rectification, Facilities of catalyzing & cracking, Facilitiesof cracking with hydrogen adding, Facilities of delayed coking, Facilities of light carbon cracking, Sequential separator,Naphtha cracker, de-ethane separator, diesel cracker, de-propane cracker, facilities of residue heat utilization fromethylene.
-making Cooker, facilities of distillation, facilities of washing, facilities of bleaching, evaporator, crusher, facilities of de-water,facilities of finishing, facilities of residue heat utilization, facilities of black liquor recovery, Co-generator, Backpressure electric power generator, condensing electric power generator.
e Cotton weaving process, Chemical fiber process, Wool weaving & textile process, Silk process, Printing & dyeingprocess, Garment making, Air conditioner, Lighting, Facilities of space heating.
inery Ingot process: Cupola, Electric arc furnace, fan; Forging process: coal-fired pre-heater, Gas-fired pre-heater, Oil-firedpre-heater, Steam hammer, Electric-hydraulic hammer, Pressing machine; Facilities of heat processing: Coal-fired heatprocessing furnace, Oil-fired heat processing furnace, Gas-fired heat processing furnace, Electric processing furnace;Cutting process: Ordinary cutting, high speed cutting.
tion Diesel engine, Electric induct motorng works Tractor, Other agricultural machineultural products process Diesel engine, Electric induct motor, processing machine, coal-fired facilities.ry Diesel engine, Electric induct motor.al husbandry Diesel engine, Electric induct motor, Other machines. heating in resident Heat supplying boiler in thermal power plant, Boiler of district heating, Dispersed boiler, Small coal-fired stove, Electric
heater, Brick bed linked with stove (Chinese KANG).ng in resident Air conditioner, Electric fan.ing in resident Incandescent lamp, Fluorescent lamp, Kerosene lamp.ing & Hot water innt
Gas burner, bulk coal-fired stove, briquette-fired stove, Kerosene stove, Electric cooker, cow dung-fired stove,firewood-fired stove, methane-fired stove.
ic Appliance Television, Cloth washing machine, Refrigerator, others.Space heating in service sector Heat supplying boiler in the thermal power plant, Boiler of district heating, dispersed boiler, Electric heater.
ng System of central air conditioner, Air conditioner, Electric fan.ing Incandescent lamp, fluorescent lamp.ing & Hot water Gas burner, Electric cooker, Hot water pipeline, Coal-fired stove.ic Appliance Duplicating machine, computer, Elevator, others.nger & freight transport Railway (passenger & freight): Steam locomotive, Internal combustion engine locomotive, Electric locomotive.;
Highway (passenger & freight): Public diesel vehicle, Public gasoline vehicle, Private vehicle, Large diesel freighttruck, Large gasoline vehicle, small freight truck.Waterway (passenger & freight): Ocean-going ship, Coastal ship, Inland ship.Aviation (passenger & freight): Freight airplane, passenger airplane.
Tec
hn
olog
y L
ist
ERI, ChinaERI, China
8
Steel production process in China
Coke making Sintering
Iron making Pig Iron
Convertor Open HearthElectric Furnace
DirectReduction
DIOSor
COREX
Recycledsteel
Casting
Heating
Hot Rolling Steel
Heating
Cool Rolling Steel
Continuous Casting
Steel making
9
Unit Energy Use in Steel Making Industry
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
kgce
Large ConvertorContinuous Casting
Large Blast Furnace
Coke Dry Quenching
Coal Powder Injection
TRT
Fluit Gas Recovery DCF COREX
EF
10
Sector Technologies Steel Industry Large size equipment (Coke Oven, Blast furnace, Basic oxygen
furnace ,etc.), Equipment of coke dry quenching, Continuous casting machine, TRT Continuous rolling machine, Equipment of coke oven gas, OH gas and BOF gas recovery , DC-electric arc furnace
Chemical Industry Large size equipment for Chemical Production, Waste Heat Recover System, Ion membrane technology, Existing Technology Improving
Paper Making Co-generation System, facilities of residue heat utilization, Black liquor recovery system, Continuous distillation system
Textile Co-generation System, Shuttleless loom, High Speed Printing and Dyeing
Non-ferrous metal Reverberator furnace, Waste Heat Recover System, QSL for lead and zinc production
Building Materials dry process rotary kiln with pre-calciner, Electric power generator with residue heat, Colburn process, Hoffman kiln, Tunnel kiln
Machinery High speed cutting, Electric-hydraulic hammer, Heat Preservation Furnace
Residential Cooking by gas, Centralized Space Heating System, Energy Saving Electric Appliance, High Efficient Lighting
Service Centralized Space Heating System, Centralized Cooling Heating System, Co-generation System, Energy Saving Electric Appliance, High Efficient Lighting
Transport Diesel truck, Low Energy Use Car, Electric Car, Natural Gas Car, Electric Railway Locomotives
Common Use Technology
High Efficiency Boiler, FCB Technology, High Efficiency Electric Motor Speed Adjustable Motor, Centrifugal Electric Fun, Energy Saving Lighting
Identify efficiency promised technologies
11
ERI: IPAC-AIM/Local model
Bottom-up model for 31 provinces in China 9 sectors More than 500 large point sources Focus on regional development
12
13
ERI: IPAC-AIM/Transport model
Application of IPAC-AIM/technology model for transport
For China, Beijing(extra large city), Taiyuan(large city), and Langfang(small city)
14
IPAC-Emission
Partial equilibrium model Global model:9 regions 3 economic sector: industry, building and transport Energy sources: coal,oil, natural gas, modern bioma
ss, hydro, nuclear, unconventional oil, unconventional gas, wind and solar
Cover all emission source: energy activities, industrial process and land use
Technology description: medium level cover around 40 technologies
Long-term analysis up to 2100 9 gases:CO2 , CH4 , NOx, N2O , CO , SO2 ,
HFC , PFC , SF6)
15
AIM /Em issi on-Rinka ge
S ocio-Eco no mic S cen arios
G H G s Em iss ions
C rop land
P as ture
F ores t
B iom ass F arm
O ther Land
Land Inp ut
GD P Po p u latio n Lifes ty leRes o u rce Bas e
G oods and
Servi ce P ric e
AIM / Clim a te M ode l
AIM / Im pa ct M ode l
B o tto m -up M o d el
B iom ass
Ener gy
D em and
Fee
db
ack
La nd E q uilib rium M o d el
Oth er
In p u ts
G D P
P op ulat ion
G oods &
Servi ce
D em and
G oods &
Servi ce
Sup p ly
Soci al
Ener gy
Effici ency
Endo U se
Ener gy
Effici ency
T echnology
C hange
F ood
C onsum pt ion
P at t ern
Indus t rial
P rocess
C hange
Indus t rial
P roduct ion
Soci al
Ener gyEffici ency
C hange
P rim ary
Ener gy
Sup p ly
Exp loit at ion
T echnology
Ener gy P rice
Ener gy
C onvers ion
T echnology
Effici ency
Ener gy
C onvers ion
T echnology
F inal Ener gySup p ly
F inal Ener gyD em and
End U se
T echnology
End U se
T echnology
Effici ency
Ener gy
Servi ce
D em and
E nerg y-E co no m ic M o d el
G D P
P op ulat ion
Res o u rce
Bas e
Ener gy
R esource
IPAC-Emission
16
ERI: IPAC-SGM
A CGE model dynamic model 22 sectors Energy, economic activities and environment issues Up to 2050 6 gases
17
Module of SGM
AGRICULTURE
agriculture
HOUSEHOLDSdemographics
labor supplyENERGY land supply
oil production household savingsPRIMARY FACTORS gas production final product demands
OF PRODUCTION oil refiningland surface gas refining
subsurface resources coal productionlabor biomass production
capital uranium productionhydro and solar electric power GOVERNMENT
electricity general governmentnational defense
education
OTHER PRODUCTSgoods and services
18
Economy Target of China in 2020
Government Target: Overall wealthy society On the basis of economy structure optimal and
increasing profit, GDP will be four time in 2020 comparing with that in 2000 , realize fundamental industrialization”;
Take a new way for industry development; “continually increase ability for sustainable
development”;
19
42318
31707 3084528959
26071
12068
5462
769
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
Japan Germany America France Singapore Korea The average China
GDP Per Capita
20
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
rural area in China
urban area in China
Japan(1993)
America(1995)
North Europe
England(1992)
Canada
Average living area per capita, m2
21
01020304050607080
car
stoc
k fo
r100
pers
ons
Car Ownership
22
Steel output in China
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
19
78
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
10
20
30
20
10
20
30
20
10
oth
er
Year
Mill
ion ton
IPAC-
AI M2000
IPAC-
AI M2003
23
Motor Vehicles Output in China
012345678
1978
1980
1985
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
199619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
1020
2020
30
Year
Mill
ion
24
Energy Production and Consumption in China
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
1952
1965
1978
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
years
mill
ion
TC
E
Production
Consumption
25
Primary Energy Demand Scenarios
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Mtc
e