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John Page, Chief EconomistAfrica Region, World Bank
October 31, 2006
EIGHT THINGS YOU (MAY NOT) KNOW
ABOUT AFRICA
2
1. AFRICA’S GROWTH RATES ARE CATCHING UP TO OTHER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
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-4-3-2-101234567
1990 1995 2000 2005
Developing CountriesDeveloping excluding China and India
Sub-Saharan AfricaHigh-Income Countries
African per capita income is now increasing in tandem with other developing countries …
Annual Change in Real per capita GDP %
Forecast
2008
Source: World Bank
4
… growth has improved since the 1980’s
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
80s 90s 2001-05
East Asia
Europe
LAC
MENA
South Asia
Africa
5
2. ECONOMIC OUTCOMES ARE INCREASINGLY DIVERSE, WHILE SOCIAL OUTCOMES ARE CONVERGING
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Africa’s growth experience increasingly diverse
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
% G
DP
gro
wth
, 1996-2
005%
Little or no growth countries: 20% of Africa's population
Slow growth countries: 16% of Africa's population
Sustained growth countries: 36% of Africa's population
Oil exporters: 29% of Africa's population
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SOCIAL OUTCOMES ARE CONVERGING
Share of population by under-5 mortality rate (per 1,000)
13.0%
70.4%
16.8%
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
below 100 100-200 above 200
Share of population by gross primary enrollment rate
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
below 50% 50-75% above 75%
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3. PRODUCTIVITY IN AFRICA’S BEST PERFORMERS (AND BEST FIRMS) EQUALS ASIAN COMPETITORS
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Africa’s best performers are on par with India, Vietnam
Growth, Investment efficiency and investment gap
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Africa:Sustained
growth countries
Africa: Slowgrowth countries
Africa: Little orno growthcountries
India, 1995-2004 Vietnam, 1995-2004
Incremental output/capital ratio (aspercent)
Investment as % of GDP
10
Factory floor costs compare well with India & China
$0.16 $0.18$0.12 $0.16 $0.19
$0.65
$0.17$0.29
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
Mad
agas
car
Kenya
Ghana
Moz
ambiq
ue
Lesoth
o
South A
frica
India
EPZ China
Direct cost per male shirt
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4. AFRICA IS A HIGH COST PLACE TO INVEST BUT LACK OF INFRASTRUCTURE MAY CONSTRAIN INVESTMENT MORE
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Ease of doing business rank, Simple average by region
Average Ranking of Ease of Doing Business, the lower the better
116
57
7684 87
79
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Sub-SaharanAfrica
East Asia &Pacific
East Europeand Central
Asia
LatinAmerica &Caribbean
Middle East& North
Africa
South Asia
Ran
kin
g r
ang
e 1
-15
5
Data sources: The World Bank Doing Business Database, 2005 survey.
Africa lags other regions in the cost of doing business …
Building the private sector
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24.7%
40.8%
86.6% 87.3%90.4%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Access t
o e
lectr
icit
y (
% o
f p
op
ula
tio
n)
Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Latin America & Caribbean
East Asia & Pacific Middle East & North Africa
Data sources: The World Bank WDI database, April 2006.
…and in access to infrastructure
Building the private sector
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5. SUCCESS INCREASING PRIMARY ENROLLMENTS IS NOT MIRRORED IN SECONDARY AND TERTIARY EDUCATION.
15
Gross primary enrollment rate has risen sharply
School enrollment, primary (% gross)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1991 2000 2004
16
Africa lags in secondary and tertiary education
Gross secondary enrollment ratio
2133
3947 49
57
84
3243 48
68
87
69
90
0102030405060708090
100
Per
cen
t 1990
2002
Gross tertiary enrollment ratio
2 13 16
34
655
49
17
10
24 27
44
05
101520253035404550
Per
cen
t 1990
2002
17
6. MORTALITY AND LIFE EXPECTANCY HAVE REGRESSED TO LEVELS OF PREVIOUS DECADES
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LIFE Expectancy And Mortality
300
350
400
450
500
550
1960 1970 1980 1990 1997 2002
30
35
40
45
50
55
Mortality rate, adult, male (per 1,000 male adults) Life expectancy at birth, total (years)
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Malaria has not received adequate attention and is a major cause of death of children
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Angola Benin BurkinaFaso
Eritrea Gambia,The
Ghana Guinea-Bissau
Kenya Nigeria Tanzania Uganda Zambia
Percentage of children under five sleeping under insecticide-treated bednets 2000-2004
Percentage of children under five with fever accessing effective antimalarial drugs 1997-2004
20
7. INEQUALITY LIMITS THE BENEFITS OF GROWTH TO THE POOR
21
The Poor as Percent of Total Population and Inequality:
49.8
33.2
38.350.5
32.3
37.7
2.4 3.5 9.9 14.3
31.9
46.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
MENA ECA LAC EAP SouthAsia
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Po
ver
ty h
ead
cou
nt/
Gin
i, % Gini-
Head count
Data sources: The World Bank Global Poverty Monitoring Database
Inequality limits the benefits of growth to the poor
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Rural-urban divide in access to improved water source
10 11 15 19
37 3945 48 50 52
66 66 67
82 84 8870
51
72
92 89 86 8979
96 93 9690
84
72
98 95
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Per
cent
of
popu
latio
n w
ith a
cces
s to
impr
oved
wat
er s
ourc
e
Rural
Urban
Data sources: Africa Region Household Survey Standardized Files.
And the rural-urban divide remains dramatic
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8. INTERNATIONAL FOCUS ON AFRICA IS GROWING BUT STILL FALLS SHORT OF 1990 AND THE GLENEAGLES TARGETS
24
11 1214 16
19
1 1
3
7
5
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Tota
l net
ODA
, b$ Debt forgive grant
Net ODA, excluding debt forgivegrant
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Tota
l ODA
, bill
ion
$US
0
5
10
15
20
25
ODA
as
% o
f GDP
Total ODA to SSA, $2000
ODA as % of GDP
Data sources and WBI database.
International focus on Africa is growing, but still falls short of 1990
25
… and changes in ODA composition were significant
ODA Composition
59% 59% 54%
42%48%
12% 11% 17%
28% 21%
24% 24% 21%18% 18%
5% 6% 8% 12% 13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Per
cnet
Emergency aid
Technical cooperation
Debt forgiveness grant
Net ODA excluding debtforgiveness, technical cooperation,and emergency aid
26
Africa Development Indicators ‘06
Office of the Chief EconomistAfrica Region, World Bank
http://www.worldbank.org/afr/ce
