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Jeb! 2016 Iowa Presidential Caucus Media Buying Plan
Jeb Bush
Media Buying Plan copyright 2015 Coach & Cobalt Lauren Dublin, Allison Kaiser, Claire Kirk, Chris Spendlove
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Table of Contents In _ Short .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 3 Summary of data from our media plan
Who_Is_Jeb? _….........................................................................................................................................................................4 background on jeb bush and his career
Are _You_ Talkin’_To_Me? _…………………………………...............................................................5 target demographic information
A_Place_For_Everything……………………………………………….........................................6 Market area information
...And_Everything_In_Its_Place ………………………………………………………….8 strategies for reaching our goal
Not_Quite_Planes,_Trains,_Or_Automobiles…..………………………..….........9 Places we will be advertising
Put_Your_Money_Where_Your_Mouth _Is…..…….……………………….........13 SUmmary of purchased media
Wait, _What _Was _That _Word? ……………………………………………...……..15 Definitions for some words and abbreviations
We’re_ Kind _of_ A_ Big_ Deal ...................................................................................................................................16 More about us, the agency of coach & cobalt
Cold_Hard_Facts _…………………………………………………………………………....17 Research References
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In Short… || Plan Summary
Goal: Have Jeb place as one of the top four candidates after the Iowa caucus
Objective: Encourage people to turn out to vote for Jeb in the caucus
Strategy: Since many voting decisions are made lastsecond, we need to ensure Jeb’s name is on voters’ minds when they go to the polls by having a high reach and frequency
Target Demographic: Men and women over 45
Geographic Target: Western and Central Iowa
Timing: December 1 to February 1
Total Budget: $4.6 million
Media Chosen: Television, Radio, Internet, and Outdoor Media
Vehicles Used: TV: Late night and morning news, primetime sitcoms, Fox News interview shows, cable Radio: Day and night drivetimes, AM stations and FM country stations Internet: Spotify and Pandora Outdoor media: Billboards
Total Reach: 95.2
Total Frequency: 31.4 weekly
Gross Rating Points (GRPs): 11990
Cost Per Point (CPP): 372
Cost Per Thousand (CPM): 22.28
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Total Cost: $4,458,167
Who is Jeb? || Candidate Biography Jeb Bush is an American businessman and politician. He served as the 43rd governor of Florida and became Florida’s first governor to win two terms in 2002. He is the brother of former U.S. president George W. Bush and the son of former U.S. president George H.W. Bush. Because of Jeb’s policies on immigration, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute, Paul Yepsen, said: "It’s pretty hard for [Republicans] to win the White House if current Hispanic voting trends continue. (Jeb Bush) has some unique abilities to appeal to those voters and he’s going to maximize them.” Jeb is fluent in Spanish and has heavily targeted Latino voters around the U.S. Unlike other Republican candidates who are pushing to immediately deport undocumented immigrants, Jeb has created a plan for these immigrants to earn legal status in the U.S. He has made cultural diversity a fundamental part of his campaign, regularly discussing his wife, who is from Mexico, and their three multicultural children. In contrast to his older brother George W. Bush who struggled through school and suffered from alcoholism, Jeb Bush always seemed to be the more ideal Presidential candidate of the two. Jeb graduated with top honors from the University of Texas at Austin in two and a half years and subsequently married his wife at age 21. Although he is often considered to be the more calm and stable sibling, but as a presidential candidate he has several obstacles to overcome. Some of his policies, especially those on immigration and Common Core standards, lean too far left to be acceptable to the Republican Party. With such a large number of Republican candidates to choose from, these policies may be hurting Jeb’s chances at winning the Republican vote. Additionally, many voters are tired of the Bush family and would rather see someone new running the country.
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Trump and Carson’s support has steadily risen in number, together accounting for almost 50 percent of Republican supporters. Bush, however, has slowly lost support. In April 2015 Jeb reached an alltime high of 14 percent of Republican voters but his numbers have steadily decreased to only 6.3 percent.
Are You Talkin’ To Me? || Target Audience
The demographic most likely to vote Republican is about equally men and women, Caucasian, ages 4565+, with a middle to upperclass income, according to the Wall Street Journal’s 2014 exit polls from the midterm elections. MRI data supports these findings and gets even more indepth. Men are slightly more likely than women to be Republicans, but both genders are more likely to be ages 45 or older, and 26 percent more likely to be Caucasian. Republicans are three to four percent more likely to live in the U.S.’s central marketing regions, and four to 25 percent more likely to live in rural counties. They are 2.69 to 3 times more likely, respectively to consider themselves “somewhat” to “very conservative,” and are significantly more likely to always or sometimes vote in statewide elections. With Iowa located almost directly in the center of the United States and having only three major metropolitan areas, it isn’t a stretch to say that Iowans have a very high chance of being Republicans. In order for Bush to be one of the top four Republican candidates after the Iowa Caucus on February 1, Jeb will need to effectively reach his target market. Who should that be? Based on data from the October Marist Poll, he is going to want to target men & women over 45 in western and central Iowa. Jeb polled at 10% among the Iowa Republican Electorate as a whole in the Marist Poll; among Iowa Republican men he polled at 12%, and only 6% among women. This index score of 120 among men (compared to 60 among women) means that Iowa Republican men are proportionately more likely to vote for him than Iowa Republican women. However, with such a big portion of Iowans fitting the characteristics of Republicans, targeting both sexes would be beneficial.
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If Bush plays his cards correctly and effectively reaches his target markets, he stands a very good chance of doing well in Iowa. With this demographic in mind, it is time to choose the market areas to focus this campaign on.
A Place For Everything… || Target Market Areas Iowa is broken down into nine different DMAs, or Designated Market Areas. A map of these areas is shown below. The Mankato, MN DMA shown in the map is usually considered part of the Sioux City DMA.
A map of DMAs in Iowa, from polidata.us
Based on data from NBC exit polls from the 2012 presidential election, Bush would do best to focus on western & central Iowa, which voted mostly to entirely Republican in the 2012 presidential elections. Below is a map with a countybycounty breakdown of the exit poll results.
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A countybycounty breakdown of the 2012 Presidential election results, from NBC
Based on this data, we chose five Iowa DMAs that we felt Bush could potentially have the most sway over. These DMAs are Sioux Falls, Sioux City, Omaha, Des MoinesAmes, and RochesterMason City.
A combined map of Iowa DMAs and 2012 Presidential Election results.
Choosing these five DMAs will put Jeb’s ads in 66 of Iowa’s 99 counties. Most of these counties voted Republican in the 2012 election, so the potential for votes is absolutely present if Jeb can effectively reach the market. Luckily, we break down how we did that in the next two sections. With a budget of $4.6 million, we felt that choosing these five DMAs would be enough to spread out our budget and still reach the target market enough times to make a difference.
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...And Everything In Its Place || Strategy The Iowa Caucus is February 1, 2016. In order to have the best chance of winning the official Republican party nomination, Bush will want to be sure to place in the top four candidates. According to the Wall Street Journal’s Midterm exit polls, many voters (83 percent) decided who they were voting for lastsecond. Bush will want to run this campaign in the months leading up to the caucuses, especially in January.
A screenshot of the Wall Street Journal's infographic from their 2014 exit poll results. The bars on the left show the overall percentage of voters who made their decision in either the last few days or before that, and the bars on the
right shows a breakdown by party.
It’s important to be talking about the issues that voters are listening to most closely, and if needed, clarify Bush’s position on immigration and Common Core standards, deemphasizing them if necessary. Purchasing media now is necessary to ensure prime media coverage at the best prices, but ads may need to be tweaked and created throughout in order to stay on top of voter concerns.
Reach and frequency will need to be high throughout the campaign in order to keep Jeb a part of people’s top of mind awareness. However, with so many voting decisions made last minute, while the campaign will run heavily throughout both December and January, reach and frequency will need to increase throughout the month of January, to really ensure that Jeb’s name is in mind when voters go to the polls.
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Not Quite Planes, Trains, or Automobiles || Media Vehicles The best media Bush could choose to best reach his target demographic would be television, radio and outdoor advertising. When buying units of television, we decided to buy the most units during the late night news because this is when most of the target audience will get getting home from work and turning on the nightly news. Then we heavily focused on the morning news because this is the time of the day where the target audience will be waking up to watch the news before they head to work. We also bought a small percentage in prime time television because it will still increase our reach and frequency, but this area of television does not directly correlate to our target market. We chose a variety of vehicles within our TV purchases. Republicans are 59 percent more likely to watch football Bowl games, which are starting up at the end of December and wrapping up at the beginning of January. We think it would be important to put a large percent of our ads there. Republicans are also 15 percent more likely to watch the Sunday news, so putting ads there would be beneficial as well. Horse racing and golf were also popular among Republicans, so putting ads during any highprofile events throughout December and January would also help. Republicans also had a variety of channels they liked. Below is a table of channels that, based on MRI data, Republicans are more likely to watch than the average person is. It would be important to focus most of our advertising on these channels, since they have such a high Republican audience. Many of channels are focused around faith, farming, and traditional values, which are all qualities or activities many Iowans hold important. Buying commercial spots on these channels would be beneficial for getting Jeb’s political position into a better spot, and help voters keep him in mind during their caucus votes. In addition to commercials, we also plan to have Jeb make several appearances on talk shows to discuss topics relevant to Iowa voters, in order to help sway their opinions toward him. Fox News, which ranked high among Republicans, hosts talk shows such as Fox & Friends, the O’Reilly Factor, and Shepard Smith that would be good for Jeb to appear on. Our choice to buy television is efficient because men and women in our target age bracket consume a lot of cable and primetime sitcoms. With cable specifically, we wanted to target channels that index well among Republicans in general, and specifically our older age bracket. We recommend Fox News (indexing at a 141 among Republicans and a 121 with our demo), the Golf Channel (164 among Republicans, 121 with our demo), DIY Channel (128 among Republicans, 139 with our demo), and Turner Classic Movies (120 among Republicans, 138
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with our demo). These cable buys will reach the men and women who are most likely to caucus, and will ensure Jeb is on their mind when they vote at the caucus.
To the left is a table with more information about channels Republicans tend to prefer more than the average consumer. Primetime is a little tricky, but we can lasertarget our ads to reach our voters in the most efficient way possible. The only primetime programming our demo watches is sitcoms, indexing at a respectable 108. Dramas and other primetime programming barely index above 70, so focusing our spends on the air time in comedies will maximize our efficiency during a key
daypart. Big Bang Theory is still among the top sitcoms, and is geared toward a younger audience. Modern Family would be another sensible choice, as Jeb’s focus on steady, reliable principles of government speaks to families. New Girl, The Simpsons, and Brooklyn NineNine are also viable options. Our radio buying patterns were similar to our television buying patterns. We bought both the morning and evening radio units because our target market will be commuting to and from work during both of these times. Radio is an efficient buy because of its massive reach, which plays right along with our strategy of reaching as many people as we can and getting Jeb on their minds. Focusing on drivetime dayparts will ensure that working men and women will hear Jeb’s message and encourage them to choose him on February 1st. We will buy advertising time on AM stations and FM country stations throughout our chosen DMAs. Additionally, we plan to purchase some internet advertising through Pandora and Spotify music streaming services. Data from CivicScience from April 2015 showed that Pandora’s audience tends to be older than Spotify’s. Additional data from them shows that Pandora listeners are also more likely to live in rural areas than Spotify listeners. Both platforms have grown in usage over the last two years as well,with 60 million to almost 82 million active users in 2014. To the right is a table from emarketer.com summarizing data from CivicScience’s April 2015 poll regarding Spotify and Pandora usage.
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Graph from statista.com
While Pandora initially looks to be a better choice, the data from CivicScience shows that Spotify listeners are 44 percent more likely to follow current events and trends than Pandora listeners are. Additionally, 48 percent of active Spotify users also use Pandora, so purchasing time on both streaming services will ensure that our target audience is reached. Spotify allows brands to target their audience by age, gender, and DMA, and without a paid account users are unable to skip the advertising. Users are engaged with Spotify almost all day, so reaching the target audience will not be a problem no matter what time the ad plays.
Screenshot of Spotify’s website regarding media buying with them.
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Pandora offers many different varieties of advertising based on the platform purchased, and has over 300 audience segments to choose from when advertising with them. These segments come from first, second, and third party data, so they are very accurate and good for targeting specific audiences. They are able to target ads locally as well, so we can ensure that our message is only reaching people in relevant areas. The last type of media that we focused on was outdoor media. Republicans ranked between three and 21 percent more likely than average to be exposed to higher amounts of outdoor advertising, so we wanted to reach our target audience through these alternative methods of advertising. Billboards have been extremely popular with the Republican candidates this season, so it would be beneficial for Jeb to put his name out there with them as well. Outdoor advertising increased both our reach and frequency, therefore we believe that this form of media can help put Jeb Bush in a new light and bring up his rankings in the polls. Below is our media plan that shows the specific units purchased, the money we spent, and our final reach and frequency. We managed to stay under budget by spending $4.5 million overall. Our reach ended up at 95.2 and our frequency ended up being 22.4 each week.
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Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is || Media Buy Summary To most effectively use our media, we purchased 200 units of Daytime TV, for a total cost of $71,000. We also purchased 450 30second spots of early news, at a total estimated cost of $182,250. Our last night news spots cost $2,590,000. This will include the time Jeb spends on talk shows discussing his views and increasing his likeability among Iowa voters. Primetime cost $521,000 for 521 spots, and our spot cable cost $730,000 for 2500 spots. These will be the special channels such as RFD and CMT that Republicans tended to watch more frequently than nonRepublicans.
A breakdown of spending by medium for TV and radio.
Our radio purchases accounted for about 6 percent of our spending. We spent $78,800 for 400 60second spots, and purchased an additional 500 spots during the evening drive home, and 100 spots during daytime radio, plus an additional 100 at night. Our outdoor advertising cost $94,567. Our digital advertising with Pandora and Spotify totaled about $5,000 for 500,000 impressions. In total, our total spending was $4,458,167.
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The chart above shows a breakdown of spending, GRPs generated from that particular purchase, as well as the CPP and CPM for each medium. Our campaign ended with a total reach of 95.2, and an average frequency of 125 per month, an average exposure of about 31 times a week. This results in 11,992 total GRPs.
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Wait, What Was That Word? || Glossary
Cost Per Point (CPP): How much it costs to reach 1 percent of the population.
Cost Per Thousand (CPM): How much it costs to reach 1,000 people in the target demographic. The M in CPM represents the Roman numeral for 1,000.
Designated Market Area (DMA): A geographic region surrounding a city that accounts for a proportionately high amount of TV/radio viewing/listening for that city’s stations.
Frequency: How many times on average an ad is seen. Our total of 125 is over the entire twomonth period, which means each person exposed to the ads will see them roughly2 31 times a week.
Gross Rating Points (GRPs): A figure representing one percent of the population viewing the ad one time. GRPs can be over 100 because multiple people can see the ad multiple times. GRPs are equal to the reach multiplied by the frequency.
Index Score: The relative proportion of how well a brand, candidate, etc. does compared to the market as a whole. Calculated by dividing the usage/favorability of the brand/candidate by the total usage of the population. A score over 100 means the vehicle is more likely than average to be favored.
MRI: A market research company that provides insights into demographic and consumerusage patterns.
Reach: The percentage of the population that sees an ad. The theoretical maximum is 100.
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We’re Kind of a Big Deal || Agency Bio
Coach & Cobalt was formed in 2015 in Ames, IA. Run by four Greenlee School of Journalism students, Coach & Cobalt focuses exclusively on presidential candidates and running the best possible campaigns for them. Lauren Dublin is a senior at Iowa State University studying Marketing and Public Relations. Originally from the Chicago area, Lauren enjoys petting every dog she sees and is occasionally an okay cook. Allison Kaiser is a senior at Iowa State University studying Advertising and Music. She enjoys diving and playing tennis. Claire Kirk is a junior at Iowa State University studying Public Relations and Speech Communications. In her spare time, Claire enjoys reading books and drinking coffee. Chris Spendlove is a senior at Iowa State, studying Advertising with an emphasis on media planning and creative. Chris has worked for a presidential campaign, was a missionary for a couple of years, married his high school sweetheart, and recently led a rebellion as Enjolras in Les Miserables.
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Cold Hard Facts || Works Referenced By the Numbers: Exit Polls. (2014, November 5). Retrieved October 9, 201 from http://graphics.wsj.com/exitpolls2014/ Pandora Maintains Strong Audience Lead Over Spotify eMarketer. (2015, May 14). Retrieved December 4, 2015, from http://www.emarketer.com/Article/PandoraMaintainsStrongAudienceLeadOverSpotify/1012476 POLIDATA REGION MAPS CountyBased Regions and Markets for IOWA. (2002). Retrieved October 9, 2015. Sikora, J. (2015, May 1). Differences Between Pandora and Spotify Users:Why Pandora should target the Spotify user. Retrieved December 4, 2015, from http://civicscience.com/wpcontent/uploads/2015/05/CivicSciencePandoravsSpotifyMay2015Final1.pdf Spotify vs. Pandora: Number of active users 2014 | Statistic. (n.d.). Retrieved December 4, 2015, from http://www.statista.com/statistics/293749/spotifypandoranumberactiveusers/
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