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1
Jamaica’s Public Debt
Changing ProfilesChanging Imperatives
Presentation by Dr. Omar Davies, MPSeptember 28, 2007
UWI, Mona
2
Outline
1. Total Debt2. External Debt3. Domestic Debt4. Domestic versus External Debt5. Debt and the Fiscal
3
Total Debt
1. Total Debt Stock2. Total Debt to GDP
4
Total Debt StockTotal Debt Stock
0.00
100,000.00
200,000.00
300,000.00
400,000.00
500,000.00
600,000.00
700,000.00
800,000.00
900,000.00
Time Period
Mill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rs (
J$
)
Total Debt Stock (J$)
5
Debt to GDPTotal Debt to GDP (%)
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.001
98
4
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
90
/91
19
91
/92
19
92
/93
19
93
/94
19
94
/95
19
95
/96
19
96
/97
19
97
/98
19
98
/99
19
99
/00
20
00
/01
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/20
04
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
Time Period
Pe
rce
nta
ge
(%
)
Total Debt to GDP (%)
6
External Debt
1. External Debt Stock2. Changing Tenor Profile3. Changing Creditor Profile4. Ratio to XGS and
Remittances
7
External Debt Stock (US$)
External Debt Stock
0.00
1,000.00
2,000.00
3,000.00
4,000.00
5,000.00
6,000.00
1984
1986
1988
1990
1991
/92
1993
/94
1995
/96
1997
/98
1999
/00
2001
/02
2003
/200
4
2005
/06
Time Period
Mill
ions
of
Dol
lars
(U
S$)
Domestic Debt Stock
8
External Debt Stock (J$)External Debt Stock
0.00
50,000.00
100,000.00
150,000.00
200,000.00
250,000.00
300,000.00
350,000.00
400,000.00
Time Period
Mill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rs (
J$
)
External Debt Stock
9
External Tenor ProfileChanging Tenor Profile of the External Debt
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Time Period
Avera
ge L
ife o
f th
e L
oan (
Years
)
Multilateral Bilateral Commercial Banks Other Bonds
10
External Creditor ProfileExternal: Profile of Creditors
(1,000.00)
(500.00)
0.00
500.00
1,000.00
1,500.00
2,000.00
2,500.00
3,000.00
3,500.00
1984
1986
1988
1990
1991
/92
1993
/94
1995
/96
1997
/98
1999
/00
2001
/02
2003
/200
4
2005
/06
Time Period
Mill
ions
of
Do
llars
(U
S$)
Multilateral IMF Bilateral Commercial Banks Other Bonds
11
External Debt Servicing/ XGS; Remittances
External Debt Servicing to XGS; Remittance Inflows
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
Time Period
(%)
External Debt Servicing to Export of Goods and Services (%)
External Debt Servicing to Remittance Inflows
12
Domestic Debt
1. Domestic Debt Stock
13
Domestic Debt Stock (J$)Domestic Debt Stock
0.00
100,000.00
200,000.00
300,000.00
400,000.00
500,000.00
600,000.00
Time Period
Mill
ions
of
dolla
rs (
J$)
Domestic Debt Stock
14
Domestic vs External Debt
1. Change in relative sizes
15
Domestic: External- Changing Sizes
Domestic vs External Debt: Changes in Relative Sizes
0.00
100,000.00
200,000.00
300,000.00
400,000.00
500,000.00
600,000.00
1984
1986
1988
1990
1991
/92
1993
/94
1995
/96
1997
/98
1999
/00
2001
/02
2003
/200
4
2005
/06
Time Period
Mill
ions
of
Dol
lars
(J$
)
0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00160.00180.00
Domestic Debt Stock External Debt Stock Domestic/ External (%)
16
Debt and the Fiscal
1. Domestic Debt Servicing and the Budget
2. Various Fiscal Ratios (Total Debt)
17
Domestic Debt Service/ Budget
Domestic Debt Service/ Budget
0.00
50,000.00
100,000.00
150,000.00
200,000.00
250,000.00
300,000.00
350,000.00
400,000.00
1990
/91
1991
/92
1992
/93
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/200
4
2004
/05
2005
/06
Time Period
Mill
ion
s o
f Do
llars
(J$
)
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
Domestic Debt Service Budget Domestic Debt Service/Budget
18
Debt and the Fiscal Budget
Debt and the Fiscal Budget: Various Ratios
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
Time Period
(%)
Total Interest Payment to Recurrent Expenditure
Total Debt Service to Revenue
Total Debt Service to Total Expenditure
