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1
Hardo Pajula
Estonian economy:Autumn 2007
2
Analytical framework
Output and income growth
Labour market
Inflation
Competitiveness
Balance of payments
Money supply and credit
Interest rates and asset prices
Cap
ital a
ccou
nt
David HumeAll water. wherever it communicates. remains always at a level. Ask naturalists the reason; they tell you. that. were it to be raised in any one place. the superior gravity of that part not being balanced. must depress it.
Exch
an
ge ra
te
3
The watershed
In the second half of this Feb-ruary rumours about an immi-nent devaluation of Latvian currency drove interbank rates from 4.5 to 9 percent and pushed the lat to touch its upper boundary.
In the following two weeks the share prices of Swedbank and SEB fell by 12 and 9 percent respectively, reflecting the worries about their exposure to Baltic credit boom.
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
1800
6.0
6
07
.06
08
.06
09
.06
10
.06
11
.06
12
.06
01
.07
02
.07
03
.07
04
.07
05
.07
06
.07
07
.07
08
.07
09
.07
Sh
are
pri
ces,
Ind
ex
13
.6.2
00
6 =
10
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
RIG
IBO
R, I
n p
erc
en
t
Swedbank SEB RIGIBOR 6 months
Latvian devaluation rumours start to go around
4
“Bronze night” takes toll on confidence
The images of shattering shop-windows which under other circumstances might have shaken off as a minor disturbance seem to have had in this phase of the cycle a more damaging impact. Its impact on transit and inbound tourist flow has been equally distructive.
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
300
1.0
6
04
.06
07
.06
10
.06
01
.07
04
.07
07
.07
Fre
igh
t tu
rno
ver:
12
-mo
nth
gro
wth
ra
tes,
%.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Freight turnover Consumer confidence
"Bronze night"
5
“Fear index” on the rise
Sharply increased risk-aversion will make it harder for parents to raise money.
The boom was predicated on the transfer of cheap funds from the core to perihery. Historically, the problems at the core tend to be amplified in the peripheries.0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
01
.90
01
.91
01
.92
01
.93
01
.94
01
.95
01
.96
01
.97
01
.98
01
.99
01
.00
01
.01
01
.02
01
.03
01
.04
01
.05
01
.06
01
.07
VIX
, %
6
Key factor: Animal spirits
“Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than mathematical expectations … Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as the result of animal spirits – a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.”John Maynard Keynes on long-term expectations
Entrepreneur from Africa
7
Growth and economic sentiment
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
141
2.9
4
12
.95
12
.96
12
.97
12
.98
12
.99
12
.00
12
.01
12
.02
12
.03
12
.04
12
.05
12
.06
Ro
llin
g y
ea
r g
row
th r
ate
, %.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Eco
no
mic
se
ntim
en
t.
GDP Economic sentiment
8
Aggregate demand and its components
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
401
2.9
4
12
.95
12
.96
12
.97
12
.98
12
.99
12
.00
12
.01
12
.02
12
.03
12
.04
12
.05
12
.06R
olli
ng
ye
ar
gro
wth
ra
tes,
%.
Investment Domestic demand Export Import GDP
9
Industrial output andconfidence
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
201
2.9
6
12
.97
12
.98
12
.99
12
.00
12
.01
12
.02
12
.03
12
.04
12
.05
12
.06R
olli
ng
ye
ar
gro
wth
ra
te, %
.
-5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
Co
nfid
en
ce in
dic
ato
r.
Output Confidence
10
Exports and order books
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
601
2.9
6
12
.97
12
.98
12
.99
12
.00
12
.01
12
.02
12
.03
12
.04
12
.05
12
.06
Ro
llin
g y
ea
r g
row
th r
ate
, %.
-50,0
-40,0
-30,0
-20,0
-10,0
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
Ord
er
bo
oks
ind
ica
tor.
Exports Order books
11
Construction output andconfidence
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
401
2.9
5
12
.96
12
.97
12
.98
12
.99
12
.00
12
.01
12
.02
12
.03
12
.04
12
.05
12
.06
Ro
llin
g y
ea
r g
row
th r
ate
, %.
-60,0
-40,0
-20,0
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
Co
nfid
en
ce in
dic
ato
r.
Output Confidence
12
Retail sales and consumer confidence
0
5
10
15
20
251
2.9
9
12
.00
12
.01
12
.02
12
.03
12
.04
12
.05
12
.06
Ro
llin
g y
ea
r g
row
th r
ate
, %.
-40,0
-30,0
-20,0
-10,0
0,0
10,0
20,0
Co
nsu
me
r co
nfid
en
ce.
Retail Consumer confidence
13
Labour market
-10
-5
0
5
10
151
2.9
4
12
.95
12
.96
12
.97
12
.98
12
.99
12
.00
12
.01
12
.02
12
.03
12
.04
12
.05
12
.06Ro
llin
g y
ea
r ra
tes,
%
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Un
em
plo
yme
nt e
xpe
cta
tion
s.
Unemployment Employment growth Expectations
14
Prices and wages
0
5
10
15
20
251
2.9
7
12
.98
12
.99
12
.00
12
.01
12
.02
12
.03
12
.04
12
.05
12
.06
Ro
llin
g y
ea
r g
row
th r
ate
s, %
.
HCPI Nominal wage Real wage
15
Balance of payments
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
251
2.9
3
12
.94
12
.95
12
.96
12
.97
12
.98
12
.99
12
.00
12
.01
12
.02
12
.03
12
.04
12
.05
12
.06
Ro
llin
g y
ea
r ra
tios
to G
DP
, %.
Current account Financial account FDI
16
Credit growth
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
800
4.9
8
04
.99
04
.00
04
.01
04
.02
04
.03
04
.04
04
.05
04
.06
04
.07
Tw
elv
e-m
on
th g
row
th r
ate
s, %
.
Corporates Individuals
17
Interest rates and asset prices
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
06
.98
06
.99
06
.00
06
.01
06
.02
06
.03
06
.04
06
.05
06
.06
06
.07Fo
ur-
qu
art
er
gro
wth
ra
tes,
%.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
3-m
on
th T
AL
IBO
R, e
nd
of p
eri
od
Stock prices Real estate TALIBOR
18
Main findings
Current statistics tells the story of a strong growth which in reality has already passed.
The leftover growth we do see is skewed heavily towards domestic demand which is particularly susceptible to abrupt changes in the expectations of residents – the animal spirits argument.
As the persistent flow of bad news makes expectations to shift, domestic demand will fall (possibly rapidly) in the second half of this year.
To the extent it does, we are going to see a process of unwinding of accumulated imbalaces with inflation and wage growth coming down and external balance narrowing.
In this different environment the expectations formation becomes once again a key issue. Deeply ingrained inflationary expectations could set fixed exchange rate under intense pressure.