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1Expect The Best
Dan Borchert- EntomologistUSDA/APHIS/PPQ/CPHST/PERAL
Raleigh, NC
http://www.nappfast.org
2Expect The Best
NAPPFAST System Overview• Internet-based Pest Prediction System• Biological model (Degree day, Disease Infection,
or Multi-function) templates paired with large climate database (~2000 stations in NA)
• Produce geo-referenced output maps• Designed to assist pest
survey detection efforts:
predict when and where
3Expect The Best
Modeling- Point to Consider
“ A model is always wrong, but it can help you see the truth”
Dr. Fred Gould William Neal Reynolds Professor
North Carolina State University Entomology Department
4Expect The Best
The Purpose of NAPPFAST
• To assist the Cooperative Agricultural Pest Survey (CAPS) Program determine where and when to survey for invasive pest species
• To provide information on pests (potential distribution etc.) for risk assessment purposes
• To assist APHIS by providing relevant information in Emergency Response situations
5Expect The Best
Degree Day Model: Theory
• “Phenology and development of most organisms follow a temperature dependent time scale” (Allen 1976)
• Attempts to integrate temperature and time started 250 + years ago
• Development is widely believed to follow a sigmoid shape
Dev.
Tem
p.
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Multi-function Model
• Allows for construction of many different models using simple logical and mathematical equations:
(X>A, X and Y, X or Y, X and (Y or Z), X≥A and X≤B, A* exp(B * X), etc.)
Some examples used to date are: temperature exclusions (high and or low lethal temperatures), frost free days, and emergence dates
7Expect The Best
8Expect The Best
Infection Model
• Plant pathologist describe interactions between pathogen, host and environmental conditions as the
disease triangle.
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• Infection is often the rate limiting step in an epidemic because it requires moisture which is often limited in terrestrial environments
• Infection can be modeled by a temperature /moisture response function - a mathematical function that describes the response of an organism to temperature and moisture (Magarey et al. 2005, Yin et al. 1995, Wang and Engel, 1998)
Generic infection model
10Expect The Best
NAPPFAST Summary
• NAPPFAST is a flexible easy to use system with the ability to map multiple organisms
• Combines simple models with large amounts of high quality data
• Model Output is exportable (Geo-tiff) for easy incorporation with other types of Geo-referenced data/Spatial analysis
• Development of Global climate data and additional tools/capabilities will improve the system
11Expect The Best
NAPPFAST and Spatial Analysis
Dan Borchert- EntomologistUSDA/APHIS/PPQ/CPHST/PERAL
Raleigh, NC
12Expect The Best
Terms and Definitions• GIS: Geographic Information System
• an analytic framework for managing and integrating data; solving a problem; or understanding a past, present, or future situation.
• GPS: Global Positioning System• is a worldwide radio-navigation system formed
from a constellation of 24 satellites and their ground stations
• Spatial Analysis:• Area of GIS that utilizes multiple methods, from
simple to complex
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The Real Life Very Hungry Caterpillar
• Light Brown Apple Moth, Epiphyas postvittana• Feeds on: Apple, Citrus, Tomato, Grape, Potato,
Strawberry, Peach, Carrot, Beans, Broccoli, Pears, many forest types (HUNDREDS of hosts)
• Recently detected • Can we make a risk map to assist in
management efforts? • Quickly?
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Counties with Apples Grown
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Counties with Pears Grown
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Counties with Plums Grown
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Counties with Strawberries Grown
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Counties with Citrus Grown
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All Commodities Added
+ +++
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LBAM Host Density
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Are Hosts the Only Answer?
• Do we need to account for pest biology in addition to host?
• How can that be accomplished?
• Biological event modeling such as Degree day or infection
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Five Generations Averaged
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Standardized Global Plant Hardiness Zones
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LBAM Risk Map
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Observed distribution of Kikuyu grass observations (GBIF green points; literature records black diamonds)
Kikuyu Grass
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NAPPFAST Climate Match for Kikuyu Grass
Kikuyu Grass
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Spatial modeling as a PRA Tool
• The information (data) is becoming more readily available in spatial format
• The ability to combine and utilize multiple types of data for decision support and analysis is a rapidly developing technology
• The ability to view data in a spatial context aids in rapid understanding