1ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

Frank Raes, Peter Bergamaschi, Hugh Eva, Alan Belward

Institute for Environment and Sustainability

Joint Research Centre

European Commssion

www.jrc.cec.eu.int

User Requirements and Policy SupportUNFCCC & Kyoto Protocol

2ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

INTERNATIONAL POLICY FRAMEWORK

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

Art. 2: OBJECTIVE... stabilization greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere …

Art. 4: COMMITMENTS… develop … make available national inventories of anthropogenic

emissions by sources and removals by sinks …

… promote … research, systematic observation … related to the climate system …

… limit its anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases …

3ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

INTERNATIONAL POLICY FRAMEWORK

Kyoto Protocol under the UNFCCC

Art. 3: ... Parties included in Annex I shall … reduce their overall emissions … by at least 5 per cent below 1990 levels in the commitment period

2008 to 2012.

Art. 5: … have in place (in 2007) a national system for the estimation ofanthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks …ensure Quality

… based on the work of … the IPCC and advice provided by the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice, theConference of The Parties … shall regularly … revise …methodologies … COP SBSTA IPCC research community

Art. 10: … co-operate in scientific … research and promote the maintenanceand the development of systematic observations systems … related to the climate system

4ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

EU POLICY FRAMEWORK

Implementation of UNFCCC and future Kyoto Protocol

DG ENVIRONMENT is in charge

DG ENVIRONMENT implements- monitoring and reporting of emission reductions - national system under the KP and related QA/QC programmeMonitoring Mechanism for Community CO2 and other Greenhouse GasEmissions

DG XXX implements specific reduction policies in sector XXX

DG RESEARCH is delegated to implement- climate change researchFramework Programmes- climate observations systems e.g. GMES

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MSEEA

EU=MSDG ENV UNFCCC

JRCEUROSTAT

…

ResearchGMES

...

UNFCCCguidelines

EU “NATIONAL” SYSTEMand QA/QC

6ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

Emission inventories for (UNFCCC)- CO2, ……….. NOx, CO, NMVOC, SO2

Trends of emissions for (less demanding) (KP)- CO2, …

Inventories- aggregated at country level- yearly averaged- for a wide range of sectors (35 in total)

Inventories must be of high quality: i.e- submitted timely (of year N by 15 April of year N+1)- consistent in time- complete (all sectors, all years, all countries)- comparable (among countries)- accurate (verification with other independent methods)- cost-effective

USER REQUIREMENTS

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CO2 CH4 N2O HFC PFCs SF6 NOx CO NMVOC SO2 1. EnergyA. Fuel Combustion Activities 1.Energy industries 2.Manufacturing Industries and Construction 3. Transport 4. …B. Fugitive Emissions2. Industrial ProcessesA. Mineral ProdctsB. Chemical IndustryC. Metal ProductionD. …3. Solvent and Other Product Use4. AgricultureA. Enteric FermentationB. Manure ManagementC. Rice CultivationD. Agricultural SoilsE. …5. Land-Use Change and ForestryA. Changes in Forests and Other Woody Biomass StocksB. Forest and Grassland ConversionC. …6. Waste7. Others

UNFCCC Common Reporting Format

8ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

Highest contributors to the overall uncertainty on the EU GHG inventory:CO2 sinkCH4 and N2O from agriculture

APPROACHES

- Compare and harmonize methodologies of individual countries

- Develop a EU-wide methodology for verification of national and EU emissions inventories

EXAMPLES of JRC activities: - CH4 emissions by Inverse Modeling - Workshop on Inverse Modeling, Oct 2003

- Monitoring of Land Use Change

IMPROVING DATA QUALITY

9ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

CH4 emissions 2001

COUNTRY TOTAL NATURAL ANTHROPOGENICIIASA UNFCCC UNFCCC/IIASA

Gg CH4 / yr

Germany 3879.2 255.8 3623.5 2397.1 0.66Italy 2023.0 -41.5 2064.5 1734.3 0.84France 2564.8 -114.4 2679.2 3081.8 1.15

BENELUX 1467.8 153.4 1314.5 1490.9 1.13

Austria 319.7 -14.6 334.2 432.1 1.29Spain 1844.1 -64.3 1908.3 1920.4 1.01Portugal 374.8 -18.1 392.9 513.7 1.31United Kingdom 3351.4 -38.9 3390.3 2195.5 0.65Ireland 643.7 -13.7 657.4 598.2 0.91Greece 403.7 -14.9 418.6 529.7 1.27Sweden 1075.8 853.9 221.9 278.4 1.25Finland 3227.6 2984.0 243.6 255.6 1.05Denmark 337.0 -6.4 343.4 267.0 0.78

EU-15 21512.6 3920.3 17592.3 15694.7 0.89

Relative error: 1.00 ± 0.30

Uncertainty: 2 sigma

CH4 Emissions by Inverse Modelinga priori data

10ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

CH4 Emissions by Inverse Modeling

11ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

• offline atmospheric transport model

• meteo from ECMWF

• global simulation 6o x 4o

• zooming 1o x 1o (Europe, …)

• http://www.phys.uu.nl/~tm5/

TM5 model grid

CH4 Emissions by Inverse Modeling

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observations: UBA / GAW

CH4 Emissions by Inverse Modeling

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Units: relative to a priori estimates

A priori: 1.00 ± 0.30

Uncertainty: 2 sigma

08/2001 09/2001 10/2001 11/2001 12/2001 08-12/2001Germany 0.59 ± 0.10 0.68 ± 0.12 1.03 ± 0.10 0.72 ± 0.14 0.96 ± 0.16 0.80 ± 0.12Italy 1.08 ± 0.30 1.02 ± 0.30 1.04 ± 0.28 1.00 ± 0.30 1.00 ± 0.30 1.03 ± 0.30France 1.41 ± 0.22 1.46 ± 0.24 1.25 ± 0.18 1.35 ± 0.24 1.57 ± 0.24 1.41 ± 0.22BENELUX 1.38 ± 0.22 1.42 ± 0.24 1.36 ± 0.22 1.56 ± 0.22 1.33 ± 0.22 1.41 ± 0.22Austria 0.96 ± 0.30 0.96 ± 0.30 0.96 ± 0.30 1.01 ± 0.30 0.95 ± 0.30 0.97 ± 0.30Spain 1.05 ± 0.30 1.02 ± 0.30 1.09 ± 0.30 1.02 ± 0.30 1.01 ± 0.30 1.04 ± 0.30Portugal 1.01 ± 0.30 1.00 ± 0.30 1.02 ± 0.30 1.00 ± 0.30 1.00 ± 0.30 1.01 ± 0.30UK 1.30 ± 0.26 1.25 ± 0.26 1.21 ± 0.28 1.33 ± 0.26 1.06 ± 0.24 1.23 ± 0.26Ireland 0.68 ± 0.20 0.74 ± 0.20 0.86 ± 0.20 0.44 ± 0.16 0.52 ± 0.18 0.65 ± 0.19Greece 1.00 ± 0.30 1.00 ± 0.30 1.00 ± 0.30 1.00 ± 0.30 1.00 ± 0.30 1.00 ± 0.30Sweden 0.98 ± 0.30 0.97 ± 0.30 1.00 ± 0.30 1.00 ± 0.30 1.03 ± 0.30 1.00 ± 0.30Finland 0.91 ± 0.28 0.87 ± 0.30 1.00 ± 0.30 1.00 ± 0.30 1.01 ± 0.30 0.96 ± 0.30Denmark 1.04 ± 0.30 1.04 ± 0.30 1.02 ± 0.30 1.02 ± 0.30 1.06 ± 0.30 1.04 ± 0.30

CH4 Emissions by Inverse Modelingposteriori data

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CONCLUSIONS - by scientists (Peter Bergamaschi)

- Techniques improved to the point that estimates of national emission are possible for CH4, N2O, HFC’s

- Inverse Modeling includes biogenic emissions, which usually are not in the official inventories (e.g. UNFCCC)

- Inverse Modeling of CO2 aims at biospheric emissions/sinks estimates; anthropogenic emissions well known

- Most advanced studies are based on in-situ measurements; Need for maintaining monitoring stations; set up a European framework

- Use of remote sensing is presently a problem as the column concentrations of trace gases (CH4,CO2) don’t have the required precision (< 1%)

- Need to integrate in-situ, remote sensing and modeling

- Inverse Modeling gives a consistent picture of emissions and atmospheric concentrations

JRC Inverse Modeling Workshop

15ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

CONCLUSIONS - by policy makers

- Need independent verification

- To be worth the investment IM must have a higher precision than the conventional (bottom-up) approaches

- Need for better understanding of the capabilities and costs

- Follow workshop in spring 2005

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JRC Inverse Modeling Workshop

16ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

1989 1992 1997

Monitoring De- & Reforestation

17ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

THE SECOND REPORT ON THE ADEQUACY OFTHE GLOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEMS FOR CLIMATEIN SUPPORT OF THE UNFCCC

by the GCOS secretariat for the IPCC

http://www.wmo.ch/web/gcos/gcoshome.html

april 2003

essential climate variables of high impact on UNFCCC requirementsa.o.:Atmospheric composition: CO2, CH4, O3, other long-lived GHG

aerosol properties

Systematic Observations

18ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

Post Kyoto …

ALTERNATIVE CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION STRATEGIES ?

Reduction of fossil fuel use and related CO2 emissionsremains the primary goal.

At present it is politically difficult to implement

Evaluate additional ways to reduce global warming, considering that conventional short-lived air pollutants like ozone and black carbon aerosols also have a warming effect,

Need to integrate climate change and air pollution policies.