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1
ERCOT
Load Profile Transition Option 1 – 4 Analysis
August 21, 2006
2
Analysis Methodology• New profiles were simulated using the latest LRS results (reflecting 2006 AV Profile
ID assignments) and were compared to current profiles for 2005
• Data Aggregation process was approximated using a SAS program in conjunction with usage records pulled for 2006 Annual Validation
– Usage and profile data were structured to facilitate making multiple data aggregation runs over the April 1 – October 31 time period
– Code was written to approximate both Initial and Final settlements for all transition options being considered for all 6 Profile Types
– May 1 transition date was assumed in all cases
– Profiles were adjusted as needed to properly reflect the way a specific transition option would be implemented
– New profiles were considered to be loaded and available for settlement as needed back to January 1 of the transition year; old profiles were considered to be loaded and available through December 31 of the transition year
– Code was benchmarked against production settlement runs to confirm that reasonably accurate approximations were incorporated
3
Description of Option 1- Direct Cutover
– Start posting and using new profiles beginning on the transition date with no adjustments
– Continue the settlement process with no changes to the current settlement system following all current rules for data aggregation
4
Option 1 – Direct Cutover Residential Group Initial and Final
•Residential load aggregated using old profiles
Old Old + New % Difference
Option 1 Initial Settlement RESTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
Option 1 Final Settlement RESTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
5
Option 1 – Direct Cutover Residential Group Initial and Final
Old Old + New % Difference
Option 1 Initial Settlement RESTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
Option 1 Final Settlement RESTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
•Residential load aggregated using old profiles
•Option 1 Residential load aggregation with a May 1 transition date
6
Option 1 – Direct Cutover Residential Group Initial and Final
•Residential load would be overstated for both initial and final settlement by as much as 20% for about the first month after the transition date
•Residential load would be understated by about 5% for about 2 weeks prior to the transition date for final settlement
Old Old + New % Difference
Option 1 Initial Settlement RESTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 1 Final Settlement RESTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
7
Option 1 – Direct Cutover Business Group Initial and Final
Old Old + New % Difference
Option 1 Initial Settlement BUSTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
Option 1 Final Settlement BUSTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
•Business load aggregated using old profiles
8
Option 1 – Direct Cutover Business Group Initial and Final
Old Old + New % Difference
Option 1 Initial Settlement BUSTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
Option 1 Final Settlement BUSTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
•Business load aggregated using old profiles
•Option 1 Business load aggregation with a May 1 transition date
9
Option 1 – Direct Cutover Business Group Initial and Final
•Business load would be significantly understated by as much as 50% for initial settlements for about the first month after the transition date•Business load would be significantly overstated by as much as 40% for final settlements for about the first month prior to the transition date and as much as 30% for the first month after the transition date
Old Old + New % Difference
Option 1 Initial Settlement BUSTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 1 Final Settlement BUSTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
10
Option 1 – Direct Cutover Profile Total Initial and Final
Old Old + New % Difference
Option 1 Initial Settlement PROFTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 1 Final Settlement PROFTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
•Total profiled load would be understated by as much as about 20% for initial for about the first month after the transition date•Total profiled load would be overstated by about 15% for final settlements for about the first month prior to the transition date and understated by about 15% following the transition date
11
RES Base RES Option 1 Ratio Diff
Option 1 – Direct Cutover Profiled Load Ratio Share Initial and Final
• Substantial distortion in the Residential percentage of load occurs during the transition period both at initial and final settlement• Note : Business percentage of load = (100 – residential percentage of load)
RES Profiled Load Ratio ShareBase vs Option 1 - Initial Settlement
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
Lo
ad R
atio
Sh
are
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Dif
f (O
pti
on
1 -
Bas
e)
RES Profiled Load Ratio ShareBase vs Option 1 - Final Settlement
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayL
oad
Rat
io S
har
e
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Dif
f (O
pti
on
1 -
Bas
e)
12
Pros and Cons Option 1 – Direct Cutover
– Pro:• No system changes required either at ERCOT or in shadow
settlement systems– Con:
• Significant contribution to UFE– During the transition period UFE allocation will reduce the
miss-statement of Business load, but will increase the miss-statement of Residential load for all settlements
– IDR ESIIDs will be allocated UFE caused by the transition even though they are not involved in the profile changes
• Significant differences will occur between initial and final settlement … scheduling that’s right for one will be wrong for the other
• QSEs/CRs with large proportions of Business load will be affected most dramatically
13
Description of Option 4a-c – Graduated Option
– Transition from old to new profiles over a selected number of days– Transition profile = p × old profile + (1 – p) × new profile,
• Where p = percent of days through transition period
Bushilf - Option 4a - 50 Day TransitionkWh per Day - New ,Old, Transition
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5/1/2007 5/15/2007 5/29/2007 6/12/2007
kWh
per
Day
14
Option 4a – Graduated Option 50 Day Transition Residential Group Initial and Final
•Residential load would be overstated for both initial settlement by as much as 10% for about the first two months after the transition date•Transition impact would be almost completely eliminated for Residential load at final settlement
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4a Initial Settlement RESTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4a Final Settlement RESTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
15
Option 4a – Graduated Option 50 Day Transition Business Group Initial and Final
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4a Initial Settlement BUSTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4a Final Settlement BUSTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
•Business load would be understated for initial settlement by as much as 30% for about the first three months after the transition date•Transition impact would be largely eliminated for Business load at final settlement
16
Option 4a – Graduated Option50 Day Transition Profile Total Group Initial and Final
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4a Initial Settlement PROFTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4a Final Settlement PROFTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
•Total profiled load would be understated for both initial settlement by as much as 10% for about the first three months after the transition date•Transition impact would be almost completely eliminated for total profiled load at final settlement
17
Option 4a – Graduated Option Profiled Load Ratio ShareInitial and Final
RES Profiled Load Ratio SharesBase vs Option 4a - Initial Settlement
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
Lo
ad R
atio
Sh
are
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Dif
f (O
pti
on
4a
- B
ase)
RES Profiled Load Ratio SharesBase vs Option 4a - Final Settlement
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayL
oad
Rat
io S
har
e
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Dif
f (O
pti
on
4a
- B
ase)
RES Base RES Option 4a Ratio Diff
• Substantial distortion in the Residential percentage of load occurs during the transition period at initial settlement only• Note : Business percentage of load = (100 – residential percentage of load)
18
Pros and ConsOption 4a – Graduated Option50 Day Transition
– Pro:• No system changes required either at ERCOT or in shadow settlement
systems• Eliminates the large load swing at the transition date present in Option 1
– Con:• ERCOT will have to calculate old, new and transition forecast and backcast
profiles for the entire transition period• Somewhat significant contribution to UFE at initial settlement over a three-
month time period• Somewhat significant differences will occur between initial and final
settlements for business load• QSEs/CRs with large proportions of Business load will be affected most
dramatically• QSEs/CRs will have to adjust their forecasts/schedules to implement the
old-to-new transition if they generate their own forecasts• CR product offerings will be more difficult to price• Transition impacts will extend into the summer months
19
Option 4b – Graduated Option100 Day Transition Residential Group Initial and Final
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4b Initial Settlement RESTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4b Final Settlement RESTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
•Transition impact would be almost completely eliminated for Residential load at both initial final settlement
20
Option 4b – Graduated Option100 Day TransitionBusiness Group Initial and Final
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4b Initial Settlement BUSTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4b Final Settlement BUSTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
•Business load would be understated for initial settlement by as much as 20% for about the first four months after the transition date•Transition impact would be largely eliminated for Business load at final settlement
21
Option 4b – Graduated Option100 Day TransitionProfile Total Group Initial and Final
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4b Initial Settlement PROFTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4b Final Settlement PROFTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
•Transition impact would be almost completely eliminated for Total profiled load at both initial final settlement
22
Option 4b – Graduated Option100 Day TransitionProfiled Load Ratio Share Initial and Final
RES Profiled Load Ratio SharesBase vs Option 4b - Initial Settlement
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
Lo
ad R
atio
Sh
are
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Dif
f (O
pti
on
4b
- B
ase)
RES Profiled Load Ratio SharesBase vs Option 4b - Final Settlement
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayL
oad
Rat
io S
har
e
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Dif
f (O
pti
on
4b
- B
ase)
RES Base RES Option 4b Ratio Diff
• Some distortion in the Residential percentage of load occurs during the transition period at initial settlement only• Note : Business percentage of load = (100 – residential percentage of load)
23
Pros and ConsOption 4b – Graduated Option 100 Day Transition
– Pro:• No system changes required either at ERCOT or in shadow
settlement systems• Eliminates the large load swing at the transition date present in
Option 1– Con:
• ERCOT will have to calculate old, new and transition forecast and backcast profiles for the entire transition period
• Somewhat significant differences will occur between initial and final settlements for business load
• QSEs/CRs with large proportions of Business load will be affected most dramatically
• QSEs/CRs will have to adjust their forecasts/schedules to implement the old-to-new transition if they generate their own forecasts
• CR product offerings will be more difficult to price
24
Option 4c – Graduated Option150 Day TransitionResidential Group Initial and Final
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4c Initial Settlement RESTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4c Final Settlement RESTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
•Transition impact would be almost completely eliminated for Residential load at both initial final settlement
25
Option 4c – Graduated Option150 Day Transition Business Group Initial and Final
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4c Initial Settlement BUSTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4c Final Settlement BUSTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
•Business load would be understated for initial settlement by as much as 10% for about the first six months after the transition date•Transition impact would be largely eliminated for Business load at final settlement
26
Option 4c – Graduated Option150 Day Transition Profile Total Group Initial and Final
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4c Initial Settlement PROFTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4c Final Settlement PROFTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
•Transition impact would be almost completely eliminated for Total profiled load at both initial final settlement
27
Option 4c – Graduated Option 150 Day TransitionProfiled Load Ratio Share Initial and Final
RES Profiled Load Ratio SharesBase vs Option 4c - Initial Settlement
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
Lo
ad R
atio
Sh
are
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Dif
f (O
pti
on
4c
- B
ase)
RES Profiled Load Ratio SharesBase vs Option 4c - Final Settlement
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayL
oad
Rat
io S
har
e
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Dif
f (O
pti
on
4c
- B
ase)
RES Base RES Option 4c Ratio Diff
• Small distortion in the Residential percentage of load occurs during the transition period at initial settlement only• Note : Business percentage of load = (100 – residential percentage of load)
28
Pros and Cons Option 4c – Graduated Option150 Day Transition
– Pro:• No system changes required either at ERCOT or in shadow
settlement systems• Eliminates the large load swing at the transition date present in
Option 1– Con:
• ERCOT will have to calculate old, new and transition forecast and backcast profiles for the entire transition period
• Somewhat significant differences will occur between initial and final settlements for business load
• QSEs/CRs with large proportions of Business load will be affected most dramatically
• QSEs/CRs will have to adjust their forecasts/schedules to implement the old-to-new transition if they generate their own forecasts
• CR product offerings will be more difficult to price
29
Description of Option 2 – Consumption Start Date Cutover
• ESIIDs having an actual meter reading (meter read spans trade day) available for settlement that starts before the transition date is settled with old profiles
• ESIIDs having an actual meter reading (meter read spans trade day) available for settlement that starts on or after the transition date is settled with new profiles
• ESIIDs settled with historical meter reads will be settled with old profiles if they will have an actual meter read spanning the trade day that starts before the transition date
• ESIIDs settled with historical meter reads will be settled with new profiles if they will have an actual meter read spanning the trade day that starts on or after the transition date
30
Option 2 – Consumption Start Date CutoverResidential Group Initial and Final
Old New Profile % Difference
Option 2 Initial Settlement RESTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 2 Final Settlement RESTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
•Transition impact would be almost completely eliminated for Residential load at both initial final settlement
31
Option 2 – Consumption Start Date CutoverBusiness Group Initial and Final
Old New Profile % Difference
Option 2 Initial Settlement BUSTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 2 Final Settlement BUSTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
•Transition impact would be almost completely eliminated for Business load at both initial final settlement
32
Option 2 – Consumption Start Date Cutover Profile Total Initial and Final
Old New Profile % Difference
Option 2 Initial Settlement PROFTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 2 Final Settlement PROFTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
•Transition impact would be almost completely eliminated for Total profiled load at both initial final settlement
33
Option 2 – Consumption Start Date Cutover Profiled Load Ratio Share Initial and Final
RES Profiled Load Ratio SharesBase vs Option 2 - Initial Settlement
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
Lo
ad R
atio
Sh
are
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Dif
f (O
pti
on
2 -
Bas
e)
RES Profiled Load Ratio SharesBase vs Option 2 - Final Settlement
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayL
oad
Rat
io S
har
e
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Dif
f (O
pti
on
2 -
Bas
e)
RES Base RES Option 2 Ratio Diff
• No distortion in the Residential percentage of load occurs during the transition period• Note : Business percentage of load = (100 – residential percentage of load)
34
Pros and ConsOption 2 – Consumption Start Date Cutover
– Pro:• Eliminates the large load swing at the transition date
present in Option 1• Virtually eliminates the profile transition impact for all trade
days and settlements
– Con:• ERCOT will have to calculate and post both old and new
forecast and backcast profiles for a significant length of time• ERCOT and shadow system changes will be required to
properly select the appropriate old or new profile to use• For a given trade day following the transition date some
ESIIDs will be settled with old profiles and the others would be settled with new profiles … the mix would change continuously over the transition period
35
Description of Option 3 – Trade Day Cutover
• ESIIDs are settled with old profiles for all Trade days occurring before the transition date
• ESIIDs are settled with new profiles for all Trade days occurring on or after the transition date
36
Option 3 – Trade Day Cutover Residential Group Initial and Final
Old New Profile % Difference
Option 3 Initial Settlement RESTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 3 Final Settlement RESTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
•Transition impact would be almost completely eliminated for Residential load at both initial final settlement
37
Option 3 – Trade Day Cutover Business Group Initial and Final
Old New Profile % Difference
Option 3 Initial Settlement BUSTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 3 Final Settlement BUSTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
•Transition impact would be almost completely eliminated for Business load at both initial final settlement
38
Option 3 – Trade Day Cutover Profile Total Initial and Final
Old New Profile % Difference
Option 3 Initial Settlement PROFTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 3 Final Settlement PROFTOTALAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
•Transition impact would be almost completely eliminated for Total profiledl load at both initial final settlement
39
Option 3 – Trade Day Cutover Profiled Load Ratio Share Initial and Final
RES Profiled Load Ratio SharesBase vs Option 3 - Initial Settlement
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
Lo
ad R
atio
Sh
are
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Dif
f (O
pti
on
3 -
Bas
e)
RES Profiled Load Ratio SharesBase vs Option 3 - Final Settlement
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayL
oad
Rat
io S
har
e
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Dif
f (O
pti
on
3 -
Bas
e)
RES Base RES Option 3 Ratio Diff
• No distortion in the Residential percentage of load occurs during the transition period• Note : Business percentage of load = (100 – residential percentage of load)
40
Pros and ConsOption 3 – Trade Day Cutover
– Pro:• Eliminates the large load swing at the transition date
present in Option 1• Virtually eliminates the profile transition impact for all trade
days and settlements
– Con:• ERCOT will have to calculate and post both old and new
forecast and backcast profiles for a significant length of time• ERCOT and shadow system changes will be required to
properly select the appropriate old or new profile to use
41
• Questions?
42
Review of Initial and Final Settlement Impacts for all Options
By Profile Group and Type
Appendix
43
Option 1- Direct CutoverReview of Initial and Final Settlement Impacts
By Profile Group and Type
44
Option 1 – Reshiwr Initial and Final
Old Old + New % Difference
Option 1 Initial Settlement RESHIWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 1 Final Settlement RESHIWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
45
Option 1 – Reslowr Initial and Final
Old Old + New % Difference
Option 1 Initial Settlement RESLOWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 1 Final Settlement RESLOWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
46
Option 1 – Bushilf Initial and Final
Old Old + New % Difference
Option 1 Initial Settlement BUSHILFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 1 Final Settlement BUSHILFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
47
Option 1 – Buslolf Initial and Final
Old Old + New % Difference
Option 1 Initial Settlement BUSLOLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 1 Final Settlement BUSLOLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
48
Option 1 – Busmedlf Initial and Final
Old Old + New % Difference
Option 1 Initial Settlement BUSMEDLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 1 Final Settlement BUSMEDLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
49
Option 1 – Busnodem Initial and Final
Old Old + New % Difference
Option 1 Initial Settlement BUSNODEMAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 1 Final Settlement BUSNODEMAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
50
Option 4a – Graduated Option
50 Day TransitionReview of Initial and Final Settlement Impacts
By Profile Group and Type
51
Option 4a – 50 Day Transition Reshiwr
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4a Initial Settlement RESHIWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4a Final Settlement RESHIWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
52
Option 4a – 50 Day Transition Reslowr
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4a Initial Settlement RESLOWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4a Final Settlement RESLOWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
53
Option 4a – 50 Day Transition Bushilf
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4a Initial Settlement BUSHILFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4a Final Settlement BUSHILFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
54
Option 4a – 50 Day Transition Buslolf
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4a Initial Settlement BUSLOLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4a Final Settlement BUSLOLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
55
Option 4a – 50 Day Transition Busmedlf
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4a Initial Settlement BUSMEDLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4a Final Settlement BUSMEDLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
56
Option 4a – 50 Day Transition Busnodem
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4a Initial Settlement BUSNODEMAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4a Final Settlement BUSNODEMAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
57
Option 4b – Graduated Option
100 Day TransitionReview of Initial and Final Settlement Impacts
By Profile Group and Type
58
Option 4b – 100 Day Transition Reshiwr
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4b Initial Settlement RESHIWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4b Final Settlement RESHIWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
59
Option 4b – 100 Day Transition Reslowr
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4b Initial Settlement RESLOWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4b Final Settlement RESLOWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
60
Option 4b – 100 Day Transition Bushilf
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4b Initial Settlement BUSHILFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4b Final Settlement BUSHILFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
61
Option 4b – 100 Day Transition Buslolf
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4b Initial Settlement BUSLOLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4b Final Settlement BUSLOLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
62
Option 4b – 100 Day Transition Busmedlf
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4b Initial Settlement BUSMEDLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4b Final Settlement BUSMEDLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
63
Option 4b – 100 Day Transition Busnodem
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4b Initial Settlement BUSNODEMAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4b Final Settlement BUSNODEMAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
64
Option 4c – Graduated Option
150 Day TransitionReview of Initial and Final Settlement Impacts
By Profile Group and Type
65
Option 4c – 150 Day Transition Reshiwr
Transition profile = p × old profile + (1 – p) × new profile, Where p = percent through transition period
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4c Initial Settlement RESHIWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4c Final Settlement RESHIWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
66
Option 4c – 150 Day Transition Reslowr
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4c Initial Settlement RESLOWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4c Final Settlement RESLOWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
67
Option 4c – 150 Day Transition Bushilf
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4c Initial Settlement BUSHILFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4c Final Settlement BUSHILFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
68
Option 4c – 150 Day Transition Buslolf
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4c Initial Settlement BUSLOLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4c Final Settlement BUSLOLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
69
Option 4c – 150 Day Transition Busmedlf
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4c Initial Settlement BUSMEDLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4c Final Settlement BUSMEDLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
70
Option 4c – 150 Day Transition Busnodem
Old Transition Profile % Difference
Option 4c Initial Settlement BUSNODEMAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 4c Final Settlement BUSNODEMAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
71
Option 2 – Consumption Start Date Cutover
Review of Initial and Final Settlement Impacts
By Profile Group and Type
72
Option 2 – Reshiwr
Old New Profile % Difference
Option 2 Initial Settlement RESHIWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 2 Final Settlement RESHIWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
73
Option 2 – Reslowr
Old New Profile % Difference
Option 2 Initial Settlement RESLOWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 2 Final Settlement RESLOWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
74
Option 2 – Bushilf
Old New Profile % Difference
Option 2 Initial Settlement BUSHILFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 2 Final Settlement BUSHILFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
75
Option 2 – Buslolf
Old New Profile % Difference
Option 2 Initial Settlement BUSLOLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 2 Final Settlement BUSLOLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
76
Option 2 – Busmedlf
Old New Profile % Difference
Option 2 Initial Settlement BUSMEDLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 2 Final Settlement BUSMEDLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
77
Option 2 – Busnodem
Old New Profile % Difference
Option 2 Initial Settlement BUSNODEMAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 2 Final Settlement BUSNODEMAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
78
Option 3 – Trade Day CutoverReview of Initial and Final Settlement Impacts
By Profile Group and Type
79
Option 3 – Reshiwr
Old New Profile % Difference
Option 3 Initial Settlement RESHIWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 3 Final Settlement RESHIWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
80
Option 3 – Reslowr
Old New Profile % Difference
Option 3 Initial Settlement RESLOWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 3 Final Settlement RESLOWRAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
81
Option 3 – Bushilf
Old New Profile % Difference
Option 3 Initial Settlement BUSHILFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 3 Final Settlement BUSHILFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
82
Option 3 – Buslolf
Old New Profile % Difference
Option 3 Initial Settlement BUSLOLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 3 Final Settlement BUSLOLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
83
Option 3 – Busmedlf
Old New Profile % Difference
Option 3 Initial Settlement BUSMEDLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 3 Final Settlement BUSMEDLFAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
84
Option 3 – Busnodem
Old New Profile % Difference
Option 3 Initial Settlement BUSNODEMAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade Day
MW
h p
er D
ay
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce
Option 3 Final Settlement BUSNODEMAggregated Across Weather Zones
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
03/31/05 05/20/05 07/09/05 08/28/05 10/17/05
Trade DayM
Wh
per
Day
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% D
iffe
ren
ce