11

Embodying Standards in a Embodying Standards in a TextbookTextbook

Dr. Tim WaltonDr. Tim Walton

Sherman Kent School for Intelligence AnalysisSherman Kent School for Intelligence Analysis

at CIAat CIA

22

Dr. Tim WaltonDr. Tim Walton

B.A. College of William and Mary, Ph.D. University of VirginiaB.A. College of William and Mary, Ph.D. University of Virginia

1970 – 1976 US Navy1970 – 1976 US Navy

1982 – 2006 CIA1982 – 2006 CIA

Now at CIA’s Sherman Kent School for Intelligence Analysis Now at CIA’s Sherman Kent School for Intelligence Analysis

Also teaches for:Also teaches for:

Mercyhurst College program in Washington DCMercyhurst College program in Washington DC

Johns Hopkins UniversityJohns Hopkins University

DNI’s Analysis 101DNI’s Analysis 101

33

Fundamentals of Intelligence Fundamentals of Intelligence

AnalysisAnalysis

The first textbook on how to actually do The first textbook on how to actually do intelligence analysisintelligence analysis

Basic standards for what intelligence Basic standards for what intelligence analysts need to knowanalysts need to know

Drawn from experience as a practitioner Drawn from experience as a practitioner and an instructorand an instructor

44

Guiding Definition of Guiding Definition of Intelligence AnalysisIntelligence Analysis

Systematic collection and evaluation of Systematic collection and evaluation of data to improve decision makingdata to improve decision making

So applies to national security, law So applies to national security, law enforcement, and businessenforcement, and business

Goes beyond emphasis on clandestine Goes beyond emphasis on clandestine sources; value of open sources, as well sources; value of open sources, as well

55

Goals Goals Based on Detailed Assessment of Based on Detailed Assessment of

Successes and FailuresSuccesses and Failures

Standards for assessing dataStandards for assessing data

Correct and useful context, overcoming Correct and useful context, overcoming stovepipes and mindsetsstovepipes and mindsets

Ability to generate a range of plausible, Ability to generate a range of plausible, possible outcomes possible outcomes

66

PerspectivesPerspectives

Interagency (CIA, DIA, FBI, DEA, etc.)Interagency (CIA, DIA, FBI, DEA, etc.) Interdisciplinary (political, military, Interdisciplinary (political, military,

economic)economic) International (global examples)International (global examples) Historical (examples going back 3000 Historical (examples going back 3000

years)years) Practical (relevant, balance speed and Practical (relevant, balance speed and

rigor)rigor) Web-friendly (associated website)Web-friendly (associated website)

77

So what are the standards for being an So what are the standards for being an intelligence analyst?intelligence analyst?

Balance

Rigor Imagination

88

RigorRigor: Importance of a Structured : Importance of a Structured Approach:Approach:

Frameworks, Checklists, ToolsFrameworks, Checklists, Tools

Formulate a clear goalFormulate a clear goal Roadmap of how to proceedRoadmap of how to proceed Measure progress along the wayMeasure progress along the way Identify gaps in data and logicIdentify gaps in data and logic

Educators’ perspective:Educators’ perspective: Structured Structured techniques easier to pass on through techniques easier to pass on through teaching than experience and intuitionteaching than experience and intuition

99

FrameworksFrameworks

Organization analysisOrganization analysis

Systems analysisSystems analysis

Network and link analysisNetwork and link analysis

Nonlinear thinking (non-Western perspectives)Nonlinear thinking (non-Western perspectives)

Red Team (adversary’s point of view)Red Team (adversary’s point of view)

Devil’s Advocacy (counter conventional Devil’s Advocacy (counter conventional wisdom)wisdom)

1010

Checklists: Steps for Dealing with Checklists: Steps for Dealing with an Analytic Probleman Analytic Problem

Asking the Right QuestionsAsking the Right Questions

Gathering, Organizing, and Assessing DataGathering, Organizing, and Assessing Data

Recognizing and Countering Mindsets and Recognizing and Countering Mindsets and BiasesBiases

Conducting an Assumptions CheckConducting an Assumptions Check Generating and Testing HypothesesGenerating and Testing Hypotheses

Constructing a Sound ArgumentConstructing a Sound Argument

1111

ToolsTools

Intelligence Question RefineryIntelligence Question Refinery

Collection PlanCollection Plan

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Analysis of Competing Hypotheses MatrixMatrix

Quadrant for Generating ScenariosQuadrant for Generating Scenarios

1212

Intelligence Question RefineryIntelligence Question Refinery

New New DevelopmentDevelopment

Raw QuestionRaw Question

Key IssueKey Issue

National National InterestsInterests

Specific Specific Customers’Customers’

ConcernsConcerns

Target’s Target’s PerspectivePerspective

Refined QuestionRefined Question

1313

Collection PlanCollection Plan

SourceSource PeriodicityPeriodicity PurposePurpose UtilityUtility SectionSection CommentsComments

OSINTOSINT

HUMINTHUMINT

IMINTIMINT

SIGINTSIGINT

MASINTMASINT

1414

Analysis of Competing HypothesesAnalysis of Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1Hypothesis 1 Hypothesis 2Hypothesis 2 Hypothesis 3Hypothesis 3 Hypothesis 4Hypothesis 4

EvidenceEvidence

EvidenceEvidence

EvidenceEvidence

EvidenceEvidence

EvidenceEvidence

EvidenceEvidence

EvidenceEvidence

Total Total

numbernumber

of Isof Is

1515

Quadrant for Generating ScenariosQuadrant for Generating ScenariosFour Possible Scenarios

for China's Future

Market Economy

DemocraticGovernment

Market Economy

AuthoritarianGovernment

State-ControlledEconomy

AuthoritarianGovernment

State-ControlledEconomy

DemocraticGovernment

Democratic Government Authoritarian Government

Sta

te-C

on

trolle

d E

con

om

yM

ar k

et E

c on

om

y

1616

ImaginationImagination: Complement : Complement Structured Approach with CreativityStructured Approach with Creativity

Creativity and imagination especially Creativity and imagination especially required when there is a shortage of data; required when there is a shortage of data; ways to prompt more creative approaches:ways to prompt more creative approaches:

Guidance for better brainstormingGuidance for better brainstorming

Other specific techniques for generating Other specific techniques for generating new ideas and different perspectivesnew ideas and different perspectives

VisualizationVisualization

1717

Creativity through VisualizationCreativity through Visualization Puts a problem in a different form that prompts Puts a problem in a different form that prompts

other perspectives and possible solutionsother perspectives and possible solutions

Summarize large amounts of data; capture key Summarize large amounts of data; capture key elements without oversimplifyingelements without oversimplifying

Move easily between overall picture and detailsMove easily between overall picture and details

Easier to detect the context: patterns, Easier to detect the context: patterns, relationships, trendsrelationships, trends

Communicate with those who are visually Communicate with those who are visually oriented (used to absorbing information from oriented (used to absorbing information from television, internet)television, internet)

Detect gaps in analysis and collectionDetect gaps in analysis and collection

1818

Characteristics of Outstanding Graphics:Characteristics of Outstanding Graphics:

Integrating Multiple, Related FactorsIntegrating Multiple, Related Factors Napoleon’s army shrinks from 422,000 men to 10,000 over Napoleon’s army shrinks from 422,000 men to 10,000 over

five months (June-November 1812) and 1,700 miles (out five months (June-November 1812) and 1,700 miles (out and back), with the temperature dropping during the returnand back), with the temperature dropping during the return

1919

Value of a MatrixValue of a Matrix

Besides communicating your information as it arises . . . You might Besides communicating your information as it arises . . . You might make out a table or something in the way of columns, under which you make out a table or something in the way of columns, under which you

might arrange, their magazines of forage, grain and the like, the might arrange, their magazines of forage, grain and the like, the different corps and regiments, the works, where thrown up, their different corps and regiments, the works, where thrown up, their connections, kind and extent, the officers commanding, with the connections, kind and extent, the officers commanding, with the

numbers of guns . . . This table should comprehend in one view all that numbers of guns . . . This table should comprehend in one view all that can be learned from deserters, spies, and persons who may come out can be learned from deserters, spies, and persons who may come out

from the enemy’s boundaries.from the enemy’s boundaries.

General George WashingtonGeneral George Washington

MagazinesMagazines UnitsUnits FortificationsFortifications OfficersOfficers GunsGuns

New YorkNew York

VirginiaVirginia

South South CarolinaCarolina

2020

MatrixMatrixStoplight Indications for Warning of AttackStoplight Indications for Warning of Attack

AirfieldsAirfields Army BasesArmy Bases Naval BasesNaval Bases

Leaves Leaves CanceledCanceled

Call up Call up ReservesReserves

Radio SilenceRadio Silence

Extra supplies Extra supplies accumulatedaccumulated

2121

MatrixMatrixStoplight Indications for Warning of AttackStoplight Indications for Warning of Attack

AirfieldsAirfields Army BasesArmy Bases Naval BasesNaval Bases

Leaves Leaves CanceledCanceled

Call up Call up ReservesReserves

Radio SilenceRadio Silence

Extra supplies Extra supplies accumulatedaccumulated

2222

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Selected Incidents Involving Groups -Affiliated with alQa'ida

NorthAmerica

Africa

MiddleEast

Asia

Europe

US EmbassiesNairobi

Kenya andDar es SalaamTanzania

7 August 1998

Commercialbuilding

New York CityUSA

26 February 1993

US TroopsMMMMMMMMMSomalia

3 October 1993

US WarshipAdenYemen

12 October2000

US Commercial and military buildings

New York and Washington DC

USA 11 September 2001

CommercialbuildingsBaliMMMMMMMMM

12 October2002

ExpatriatehousingRiyadhSaudiArabia

12 May2003

PublictransportationMadridSpain

11 March 2004

PublictransportationLondonUK

7 2005July

TimelineTimeline

2323

Flow ChartFlow Chart

Money

Obtain andmove funds

People

Recruitmentand training

Weapons

Choosemethod and

obtainsupplies

Target

Select andsurveil; move

operatives

Preparing for a Terrorist Attack

2424

Force Field DiagramForce Field Diagram

North Korea

Deciding

Whether to

Develop

Nuclear

Weapons

Force Field Diagram

Pros Cons

Deterrence against U.S. Attack

Diplomatic pressurefrom China

EnhancedInternational Status

Symbol of KimJong Il'sDomestic Ascendancy

Potential to SellTechnology toOther Countries

Develop DomesticTechnology Base

Threat ofInternational Sanctions

Need Funds forOther Purposes

Threat of U.S. Attack

2525

Decision TreeDecision Tree

Tracing a Government'sDecision to Go to War

Tension, threat

Attack Negotiate

Insincere SincereImmediate Delay

Eventualattack

Furtherdelay

Eventualattack

Furtherdelay

2626

Link Analysis ChartLink Analysis Chart

2727

PresentationPresentation

Pull it all togetherPull it all together

Communicate effectivelyCommunicate effectively

Written, oral, graphic optionsWritten, oral, graphic options

Create a permanent recordCreate a permanent record

2828

What Does an Analyst Need to Know/Do?What Does an Analyst Need to Know/Do?

Things that can be passed on, more or less Things that can be passed on, more or less easily, through education and trainingeasily, through education and training

Knowledge of intelligence structures, products, Knowledge of intelligence structures, products, processes, systemsprocesses, systems

Geography, culture (disciplines: political, Geography, culture (disciplines: political, economic, military, leadership, social, etc.)economic, military, leadership, social, etc.)

Analytic techniques (critical thinking, Analytic techniques (critical thinking, frameworks/tools, analysis/synthesis, frameworks/tools, analysis/synthesis, trends/patterns/relationships, multiple outcomes trends/patterns/relationships, multiple outcomes and explanations)and explanations)

Computers, softwareComputers, software

Online, offline research techniquesOnline, offline research techniques

2929

What Does an Analyst Need to Know/Do?What Does an Analyst Need to Know/Do?

Things that are harder to communicate through Things that are harder to communicate through education and training (need experience, models education and training (need experience, models to follow)to follow)

CuriosityCuriosity

PersistencePersistence

Objectivity, honestyObjectivity, honesty

FlexibilityFlexibility

Focus: attention to detail, but still see big pictureFocus: attention to detail, but still see big picture

CooperationCooperation