Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1
ECONOMIC PROSPECTS IN A CHANGED GLOBAL ECONOMY
Ref: J2478 | August 2011
PRESENTATION TO
WS (Bill) Cummings
MINING, AGRICULTURE, TOURISM, TRANSPORT, CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING, DEFENCE, EDUCATION, ADMINISTRATION, SERVICES
3
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
MINING, AGRICULTURE, TOURISM, TRANSPORT, CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING, DEFENCE, EDUCATION, ADMINISTRATION, SERVICES
WHAT WENT WRONG?
4
WORKFORCE - FNQ STATISTICAL DIVISION (1) 2008 TO 2011
AverageEmployed
(‘000)
AverageUnemployed
(‘000)
TotalWorkforce
(‘000)
AverageUnemployment
Rate%
2008 1st half 130.8 8.0 138.8 5.8%
2nd half 137.4 8.0 145.4 5.5%
2009 1st half 129.1 14.6 143.7 10.2%
2nd half 132.1 16.3 148.4 11.0%
2010 1st half 133.5 16.6 150.1 11.0%
2nd half 137.3 13.1 150.4 8.7%
2011 1st Qtr 130.4 16.2 146.7 11.0%
2nd Qtr 136.9 13.7 150.6 9.0%
(1) Note: Cairns city and its servicing region.Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
DWELLING APPROVALSFAR NORTH QUEENSLAND STATISTICAL DIVISION
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
19
82
/83
19
83
/84
19
84
/85
19
85
/86
19
86
/87
19
87
/88
19
88
/89
19
89
/90
19
90
/91
19
91
/92
19
92
/93
19
93
/94
19
94
/95
19
95
/96
19
96
/97
19
97
/98
19
98
/99
19
99
/00
20
00
/01
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
20
10
/11
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
Number
5
VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVALSFAR NORTH QUEENSLAND STATISTICAL DIVISION
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
19
80
/81
19
81
/82
19
82
/83
19
83
/84
19
84
/85
19
85
/86
19
86
/87
19
87
/88
19
88
/89
19
89
/90
19
90
/91
19
91
/92
19
92
/93
19
93
/94
19
94
/95
19
95
/96
19
96
/97
19
97
/98
19
98
/99
19
99
/00
20
00
/01
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
20
10
/11
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
$M
6
7
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Year
1977/78
1979/80
1981/82
1983/84
1985/86
1987/88
1989/90
1991/92
1993/94
1995/96
1997/98
1999/00
2001/02
2003/04
2005/06
2007/08
2009/10
* Note: Expected order of magnitude growth rate 2009/10 & 2010/11.Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
ACTUAL * EXPECTED
RESIDENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH - CAIRNS
8
AVERAGE ANNUAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATEFNQ STATISTICAL DIVISION 1989 TO 2010
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS labour force data.
9
AVERAGE ANNUAL EMPLOYEDFNQ STATISTICAL DIVISION 1989 TO 2010
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS labour force data.
10
POPULATION AV UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
YEAR GROWTH 1st HALF 2nd HALF
2007/08 4.4% - 5.6%2008/09 3.2% 5.5% 10.2%2009/10 2.6% 11.0% 11.0%2009/11 Est. 1% 8.7% 10.0%
TWO YEAR LAG
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS population & labour force data.
DWELLING APPROVALSFar North Queensland Statistical Division
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
19
82
/83
19
83
/84
19
84
/85
19
85
/86
19
86
/87
19
87
/88
19
88
/89
19
89
/90
19
90
/91
19
91
/92
19
92
/93
19
93
/94
19
94
/95
19
95
/96
19
96
/97
19
97
/98
19
98
/99
19
99
/00
20
00
/01
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
20
10
/11
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
Number
11
12
WORKFORCE CHANGES CAIRNS SSD-URP
Growth 1996-2001 Growth 2001-2006
Agriculture, forestry & fishing -15.38% -27.04%Mining -23.96% 74.35%Manufacturing 5.16% 0.02%Electricity, gas, water & waste services 53.28% 21.68%Construction -14.66% 71.93% Construction affected
Wholesale trade -6.14% -8.48%Retail trade 15.23% 10.94%Accommodation & food services 1.83% -2.44%Transport, postal & warehousing 3.34% 15.32%Information media & telecommunications
-12.11% -3.94%
Financial & insurance services -13.77% 12.50% Construction affected
Rental, hiring & real estate services -6.58% 26.06% Construction affected
Professional, scientific & technical services
0.56% 21.68%
Administrative & support services 4.06% 3.65%Public administration & safety 9.21% 38.48%Education & training 19.52% 11.93%Health care & social assistance 15.14% 26.57%Arts & recreation services -6.14% 2.40%Other services -12.81% 12.45%
Total 1.21% 16.35%Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Census data.
13
ESTIMATED INCOME OF ‘BASE INDUSTRIES’EARNING INCOME FROM OUTSIDE THE REGION (1)
Estimated 2008/09 Income
Tourism $2.5 bn
Primary industries $1.7 bn
Mining $0.6 bn
Other (manufacturing, service industries, regional trade, etc) $1.0 bn
Total $5.8 bn
(1) Note: ie. approximate regional exports overseas and to the rest of Australia.
Source: Cummings Economics from various sources.
YEAR-ON-YEAR GROWTH IN PASSENGER NUMBERS CAIRNS AIRPORT
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19
82
/83
19
83
/84
19
84
/85
19
85
/86
19
86
/87
19
87
/88
19
88
/89
19
89
/90
19
90
/91
19
91
/92
19
92
/93
19
93
/94
19
94
/95
19
95
/96
19
96
/97
19
97
/98
19
98
/99
19
99
/00
20
00
/01
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
%
14
PILOTS DISPUTE
ASIANCRISIS
ANSETTCOLLAPSE
15
ESTIMATED TOURISM EXPENDITURE FNQ
DOMESTIC $M INTERNATIONAL $M TOTAL $M2003/04 $1,424 $1,020 $2,444
2004/05 $1,319 $1,106 $2,425
2005/06 $1,468 $1,110 $2,578
2006/07 $1,545 $1,041 $2,586
2007/08 $1,546 $1,030 $2,576
2009 (YE DEC) $1,741 $813 $2,554
2010 (YE DEC) $1,440 $795 $2,235
Source: Cummings Economics from Tourism Research Australia, NVS & IVS data.
GROSS VALUE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION(LONG TERM GROWTH 1982/83 TO 2009/10)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1982
/83
1983
/84
1984
/85
1985
/86
1986
/87
1987
/88
1988
/89
1989
/90
1990
/91
1991
/92
1992
/93
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
$M
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
VALUE OF MINING FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1982
/83
1983
/84
1984
/85
1985
/86
1986
/87
1987
/88
1988
/89
1989
/90
1990
/91
1991
/92
1992
/93
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
Source: Cummings Economics from Queensland Mines & Energy data (DEEDI).
$M
17
SALE VALUESPRODUCTION VALUES
18
WORKFORCE CHANGES CAIRNS
Growth 1996-2001 Growth 2001-2006
Agriculture, forestry & fishing -15.38% -27.04% A AGRICULTURE
Mining -23.96% 74.35% M MINING
Manufacturing 5.16% 0.02%Electricity, gas, water & waste services 53.28% 21.68%Construction -14.66% 71.93%
Wholesale trade -6.14% -8.48%Retail trade 15.23% 10.94%Accommodation & food services 1.83% -2.44% T TOURISM RELATED
Transport, postal & warehousing 3.34% 15.32%Information media & telecommunications
-12.11% -3.94%
Financial & insurance services -13.77% 12.50%Rental, hiring & real estate services -6.58% 26.06%Professional, scientific & technical services
0.56% 21.68%
Administrative & support services 4.06% 3.65%Public administration & safety 9.21% 38.48% G
Education & training 19.52% 11.93% G GOVERNMENT SERVICES
Health care & social assistance 15.14% 26.57% G
Arts & recreation services -6.14% 2.40% T TOURISM RELATED
Other services -12.81% 12.45%
Total 1.21% 16.35%Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Census data.
19
20
21
22
• CONSISTENTLY HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
• LOW POPULATION GROWTH
• LOW PRIVATE CONSTRUCTION
• LOW CONSUMER SPENDING
• PROPERTY PRICES DOWN
• SHARE MARKETS DOWN
• INTERNATIONAL UNCERTAINTY
GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT $12BN 1% GROWTH NEEDS $120M
CURRENT SITUATION
23
• MINERALS / ENERGY• BASIC AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES
REGION’S POTENTIAL?
WORLD ECONOMY CHANGED
HIGH DOLLAR SUPPRESSING TOURISM
MASSIVE DEMAND CHINA & INDIA
24
25
MINERAL SALES 2009/10 $900mFIFO Est. $150m
NEAR NORTH TRADE Est. $600m
MINING
26
• REAL LONG TERM GROWTH 2-3% PA
• TOTAL INCLUDING POST FARM GATE $1.7BN
• HINTERLAND POPULATION 2010
AGRICULTURE
CAIRNS 129,000
TOWNSVILLE 104,000 Incl. Bowen
DARWIN 102,000
MACKAY 76,000 Excl. Bowen
27
AGRICULTURAL POTENTIAL
Source: NTGC University of Montana from Modis Satellite Data.
MEASURES OF NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY
28
Source: NTGC University of Montana from Modis Satellite Data.
AGRICULTURAL POTENTIALMEASURES OF NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY
29
Source: NTGC University of Montana from Modis Satellite Data.
VALUE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (FARM GATE)
FAR NORTH $1.2bn
VICTORIA $10.3bn
SE & SW QLD $4.4bn
30
ROAD
RAIL
SEAPORTS
POWER GRID
WATER STORAGE / IRRIGATION
INFRASTRUCTURE UPGRADING
31
TURNAROUND FORCES
NATIONAL SETTINGS • AUD / INTEREST RATES
CONSTRUCTION • CYCLONE YASI EFFECTS• COUNCIL / GOVERNMENT MEASURES
TOURISM • DIRECT CHINESE FLIGHTS• CONFERENCE, SPORT, EDUCATION
PNG • FLY-IN SERVICES• SHIPPING SERVICES
MINING • FLY-IN CENTRAL QLD / OTHER
HINTERLAND MINING • COPPERSTRIKE, KAGARA, CONSOLIDATED TIN• WEIPA EXPANSION
GOVERNMENT • CATCHUP UNIVERSITY• HOSPITAL (TERTIARY) • OTHER
MARITIME • NAVY, CARGO• SUPERYACHT
AGRICULTURE • SUGAR EXPANSION & NEW PRODUCTS• BIOFUELS / OTHER
32
RECOGNITION THAT THE WORLD ECONOMY HAS CHANGED
CAIRNS CAN RETURN TO STRONG GROWTH AND PROSPERITY
BUT SOME CHANGES IN ATTITUDE NEEDED
Ref: J2478 | August 2011
PRESENTATION TO
WS (Bill) Cummings
MINING, AGRICULTURE, TOURISM, TRANSPORT, CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING, DEFENCE, EDUCATION, ADMINISTRATION, SERVICES
ECONOMIC PROSPECTS IN A CHANGED GLOBAL ECONOMY
www.cummings.net.au
