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Outline
Growth of Internet users and e-commerce
High-speed access technologies Streaming multimedia Java Impact on industries Disintermediation Regional differences
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Internet Demographics
Country Number of Internetusers (millions)
Country Number of Internetusers (millions)
The World 180.0 Spain 2.7United States 92.0 Brazil 2.7Japan 19.5 Netherlands 2.3Canada 13.5 Italy 1.5United Kingdom 10.6 China 1.5Germany 8.4 Korea 1.5Australia 4.0 Finland 1.4France 2.5 Belgium 1.4Sweden 3.3 Norway 1.3Taiwan 3.0 Russia 1.3
How many Internet users are there?
2000: about 180 million2003: about 300 million
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Time Spent Online
How many hours spent per week using web browser?
Hours of webuse per week
USA (%) Europe (%) All Respondents (%)
0-1 0.9 1.1 0.92-4 9.2 8.2 9.25-6 10.9 10.8 11.07-9 13.1 14.6 13.210-20 34.4 38.1 34.021-40 21.0 17.9 21.2>40 10.4 9.3 10.6
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What Was Bought
Online market segment Millions of purchasersin this category (1998)
Software 22Hardware 18
Books 16Travel 12Music 10
Clothing 7
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How Much Was Spent
Total amount spent onlinein last six months
USA (%) Europe (%) All Respondents (%)
< $50 15.8 27.3 17.7$50 – 100 7.3 12.7 8.0$100 – 500 33.1 36.4 33.0> $500 40.5 21.8 37.8don’t know 3.2 1.8 3.6
Reported in April 1999
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E-Commerce Forecast
Estimate for year 2003 $1.6 to $3.2 trillion
That one projection makes all the effort worthwhile
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Internet Access Technologies
POPs, ISPs, and users
POP POP POP
ISP ISP ISP
ISP
ISP ISP ISPISP
user
user
user
user
user
user
user
user
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Analog Modems
Typical speeds are 14.4 to 56 kbps
Telephone System
PC Telephone and modem
Modems and servers at the ISP
ISP’s Internetconnection
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ISDN Telephones
ISDN is a digital telephone Two 64 kbps channels (two lines) Common throughput Europe and
Japan Less common in US ISDN charges per call Affects Internet usage patterns
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Cable TV
66% of US homes have cable TV Bi-directional vs. unidirectional systems
Cable TV head-end
Neighborhood
Neighborhood
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Fiber Optics
Fantastic bandwidth (25 trillion bps) Hampered by “last mile problem” Internet backbone is all fiber optic
speeds from 2.4 to 9.6 gbps FTTC (fiber to the curb)
demultiplexed into 16 copper channels FTTH (fiber to the home)
“holy grail” of telephone, cable, ISP providers
fully integrated communications system
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ADSL
Asynchronous Digital Subscriber Line 1.5 Mbps into home; 16 kbps backchannel;
plus analog or digital phone
ADSLnetwork
unit
ADSLsubscription
unit
fiber opticconnection to telephone end office
1.5 Mbps
16 kbps
telephone
set-top box
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DSL
Digital Subscriber Line Use high-power digital signal
processors between telephone end-office and home
DSLat
telephoneoffice
DSLhomeunit
1.5 Mbps*
* can also be fractional rates
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Satellite
DirecPC has downlink bandwidth of 26 Mbps; shared; user gets about 400 kbps
HughesNetworkSystems
telephone backchannel
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Wireless
Mobile professionals Wireless within buildings Wireless all over the world
{Iridium}, Teledesic, Ellipso Telecommunications vs. data
infrastructure Experimental systems
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Streaming Multimedia
Audio and video played via Microsoft Media Player Real Networks G2 player
Commercial sites www.broadcast.com www.realnetworks.com
Rate adaptive
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Streaming Multimedia
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Streaming Multimedia
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Java
Programming language that is portable
Java applications run on any platform (via a Java interpreter)
Minimizes effort for movement to new platforms
Java applications similar to C++ Java applets downloaded from server
and then run locally Security issue with downloaded code
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Factory Monitoring
Virtual Factory for continuous process ethylene plant gasoline fractionator quench tower drier demethanizer ethylene
Monitors/controls eight key parameters
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Virtual Factory
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Virtual Factory
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Revolution in Traditional Business
Banking Retailing Manufacturing Online publishing Disintermediation
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Banking
1970s: banking via touch-tone telephones 1980s: cable TV (failure) Proliferation of non-bank software
(Quicken, MS Money) Finally, online banking
stage one: review accounts stage two: move money stage three: investments & financial
services Security First National Bank
www.sfnb.com, no physical presence
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Retailing
Progression through sole proprietorships (mom-and-pop) department stores (Leggett’s) discount chains (Wal-Mart) warehouse clubs (Sam’s Club) television retailing (Home Shopping
Network) CD-ROMs (interactive catalogs) and now: e-tailing
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E-tailers
Four groups retailers with physical and web
presence Wal-Mart, Sears, K-Mart
mail order merchants with online catalog
Plow & Hearth, 1-800-Flowers
manufacturers who sell without middleman
Dell Computer
“New Age” e-stores (only) Value America, Drugstore, Amazon, eBay
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Manufacturing
Lower costs using just-in-time inventory
Dell is a prime example Saturn is another
orders arrive from dealers electronically production planning on web vendors consult production database vendors deliver parts as needed receiving clerk scans barcode vendor paid electronically
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Online Publishing
Revolution in publishing lower cost of production targeted information serve niche areas
EDGAR (Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis, and Retrieval) is a prime example at www.sec.gov/edgarhp.htm
Scholarly publications, newspapers, magazines, news, movies, soap operas, etc.
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Online Publishing
Don’t have to make money if goal is information dissemination to
widest audience online pubs lower cost of distribution
But if you need to make money subscriptions pay-per-view advertising take a share of money flowing
through site
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Disintermediation
Who is at risk? (maybe) travel agents catalog publishers postal mailers, couriers retail auto salespersons CD databases some types of printed publications telephone call centers stock brokers brick-and-mortar stores with e-store
equivalents
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Regional Issues
A Tale of Three E-Stores JustToys.com VindeFrance.com MoviesForFree.com
Analysis and discussion Lessons learned
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Created a web site just for toys Very successful after their U.S. launch Japanese love toys, so contracted with
an agent to open mirror site in Japan Japanese site was a duplicate of the
American one Lots of viewers, few buyers Shut down effort after eight months What went wrong?
JustToys.com
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JustToys.com
Web site was in English Japanese prefer to read Japanese They bought from Japanese
websites, or Used web to identify products, then
bought from a retail store
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VindeFrance.com
Sell French wine to Frenchman Learned from JustToys, so website was
in French Offered well-known brand names at a
discount Payment via ubiquitous credit card Reliable delivery via reputable agents Can’t lose: high quality, lower price,
easy payment, reliable delivery But electronic shopping carts
abandoned at checkout screen
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VindeFrance.com
French don’t use credit cards like Americans
Encryption illegal until this year Banks provide automatic loans with
checking accounts So French just write a check Website didn’t support buyer’s
payment preferences
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MoviesForFree.com
Portal site for free movies JustToys: provided subtitles in major
languages VindeFrance: no payment necessary Make money from banner ads that display
continuously while customer watches movie
Works fine in U.S. When tried in Europe and Asia, customers
would look at site but not watch a movie How can this be? It’s free!
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MoviesForFree.com
In U.S., Internet connections have monthly fees but no usage charges
In Asia and Europe, Internet connections use ISDN phone that impose toll charges
Net access is free, but phone usage is billed by the minute
So result is pay-by-duration
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Japan
70% of online time spent at work Telephone company charges 200
yen/hour, plus ISP access fees Strong demand for brand names Credit card payment not universal Delivery companies make C.O.D.
very practical Preference for websites in Japanese
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United Kingdom
AOL offered “100 hours free” But free meant subscription fee, not
telephone access fee AOL dropped prices 40% June 1 AOL started “bundled” service at
£50/mo. Freecall offered free service British Telecom offers Clickfree basic
service plus a £12/mo. premium service Boycott on June 6 protesting the
telephone access fees
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Germany
Traditional ISP can be $53/hour AOL charging 8 pfennigs/min for
access Phone company charges another 8
pf/min Deutsche Telekom fighting back with
a 6 pf/min rate on its T-Online service DT has 3 million customers Basic (free) or premium (pay) service? ISPs are providing both
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France
Environmental issues more prominent than in the U.S.
American just goes to amazon.com and buys a book
Frenchman would think twice about that wrapping, boxing, fuel to deliver in a truck
Encryption was illegal in France until 1999 made credit card payments suspect
France permits easy credit through overdraft write yourself a loan with a check
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Asia
India world-famous for businessmen, scientists, and engineers
But e-commerce going slowly Indian Visa card denominated in rupees
usable anywhere in India, but not elsewhere
China trying to embrace the Internet government mandating use
South Korea flocking to online trading E*trade will launch in Japan
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Israel
Eleven banks authorized for online services three provide information only eight provide banking services
(securities) none provide bill payment or bank-to-
bank transfers Government concerned about
hackers Government very concerned about
security
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Middle East
In a ancient land, dominated by personal relationships, religion, agriculture, and oil, there is no Internet culture
Middle East and Africa (excluding Israel) account for 0.1% of world’s Internet hosts
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United States
Internet Tax Freedom Act of 1998 three year moratorium on new taxes
No state can force another to collect its sales tax
Business with a presence in a state must collect state sales tax but what is a presence on the Internet?
Which is better? tax-free zone -- bet on economic
development -- or tax like catalog sales
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Energy
“Being digital” is energy-intensive In the U.S.
20 million new computers/year (30 B kwh/yr)
3 million new routers/switches (65 B kwh/yr)
80 million extant computers (75 B kwh/yr) 4 million big servers (120 B kwh/yr) Internet-related computers and services
consume 8% of US electronic power 13% when you include stand-alone
computers
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Lessons Learned
Language. While English is the dominant language of the world wide web, it is naïve to think that electronic commerce will be transacted in only one language. Computers must adapt to people, not the other way around. International e-commerce websites must support multiple languages.
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Lessons Learned
Payment methods. Credit card payment is nearly universal in the U.S., but not so in the rest of the world. Some cultures prefer alternative methods of payment (e.g., C.O.D. in Japan), while others are genuinely concerned about the security of Internet transmission of personal and financial information (e.g., the no-encryption law in France). E-commerce sites should provide multiple settlement systems that are compatible with the way customers are used to doing business.
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Lessons Learned
Access charges. Internet access charges play a pivotal role in usage patterns. If access is free, Internet sessions are long and involved; the viewer tends to wander the web and experiment with new sites, thereby exposing himself to new ads and new marketing opportunities along the way. If access is metered, sessions are short; users tend to repeat what they have done before, thereby limiting their exposure to both new ads and new sites. Elimination of access charges will significantly increase the number and length of Internet sessions.
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Lessons Learned
Social issues. Environmental concerns, the local economy, or other local issues may affect e-commerce in ways that are difficult for a foreign company to anticipate.
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Lessons Learned
Government regulation. As a rule, governments move much more slowly than the Internet economy. Those countries that are slowest to adopt new purchasing methods will be the last to profit from the cost-cutting advantages of e-commerce.
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Lessons Learned
Growth. E-commerce is a lot more complicated than buying a computer and hiring a web programmer, but even so the world has taken to it at an astounding rate. Analysts forecast in every world region a sharp increase in the number of Internet users and the amount they will spend online.
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E-Future
Challenges are real, but the future is bright
$1.6 to $3.2 trillion worldwide Makes it worth addressing the
issues
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E-future
Market lost $2 trillion week of April 10 Serious shakeout of dot coms and
others Cisco went from $80 to $60 In the long term, this is good Companies that are going to make it
need solid technology realistic business plans visibility through marketing maybe a market niche
