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Dr. Peder JensenProject Manager, Transport and Environment

Dr. Peder JensenProject Manager, Transport and Environment

TERM - 2008 TERM - 2008

Transport at a crossroadsTransport at a crossroads

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Organisational set-up and Organisational set-up and outputsoutputs

– Network of national experts

– Indicator fact sheets– Indicators data sheets

IndicatorsEEA

ReportsENVTREN

Country information

Policy context

Statistics

Review

– Country fact sheets– Indicator based reports– Technical/focus studies

TERM consist of:

PCPs Transport

Danmark fossilfrit i 2050... også transport sektoren

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20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Raporterede emissioner

Total

Transport

Jævn aftrapning

Vækst som hidtilInd

ex

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Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Greenhouse Gas Emissions – growth due to transport growthgrowth due to transport growth

Transport sector GHG emissions increased by 28% over the period of 1990 -2006 in EEA countries

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Greenhouse Greenhouse gas emissions gas emissions

• Austria, Malta and Slovakia were the only states that saw a decrease in transport GHG emission compared between 2005 and 2006

• Since the mid 1990s transport and emission growth in the new EU MSs have been greater than in the old EU MSs

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Climate Change and Climate Change and Transport – Transport – much is needed but too much is needed but too

little is happeninglittle is happening • Between 1990 and 2006

CO2 emissions from the transport sector increased by 27% in EU

• Had transport sector emissions followed the same reduction trend as in society as a whole, total EU-27 GHG during the period 1990–2005 would have fallen by 14% instead of 7.9%.

27%

1990 - 2006

7.9%

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Freight transport - Freight transport - growing faster than the economygrowing faster than the economy

• Transport volume growth follows growth in GDP

• No clear signs of decoupling of transport volume from economic growth

• EU-15 MSs show increase in freight intensity

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Freight transport -Freight transport -road transport dominates the inland road transport dominates the inland

marketmarket• Road transport has a 77% market share

• Road transport share has grown at the expense of rail and inland waterway transport

• In the EU-10 road transport's share reached 65% in 2005 at the expense of rail transport

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Passenger Transport – Passenger Transport – continuous growthcontinuous growth

• Growth has occurred for all modes with the exception of sea transport

• Growth has been slower on average than growth in the economy since the mid 1990s

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Passenger Transport Passenger Transport

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• In 2005, the average car ownership level reached 460 cars per 1000 inhabitants

• Liechtenstein has the highest of 705 per 1000 inhabitants. The largest growth was observed in the new MSs and Turkey

• In Lithuania car ownership has more than doubled in 10 years from 198 to 428 cars per 1000 inhabitants in 2005

Passenger Transport – Passenger Transport – car ownership increasecar ownership increase

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TransporTransport Air t Air

Pollutant Pollutant EmissionEmission

s s Between 1990 and 2006 total transport emissions of particulates, acidifying substances and ozone precursors decreased by 31% and 47% respectively

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Air emissionsAir emissionsAnnual average mean NO2 and PM10 Annual average mean NO2 and PM10

concentrationsconcentrations

Concentrationof NO2 (2010 limit)

andPM10 (2005 limit) are at or above the

Europeanair quality limits

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5

10

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

MT

CO

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Effekten af biobrændstof og elbiler i Danmark

Fortsat vækst

Biobrændstof - 10% 2020, 50% CO2 effekt

Elbiler - salg 25% af nye biler efter 5 år

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Transport Fuels -Transport Fuels - biofuel production in EU MSsbiofuel production in EU MSs

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TransporTransport fuelst fuels

The real (inflation-corrected) average price of road fuel in the EU has only increased slightly during recent decade

Fuel prices fluctuated dramatically during the last year.

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The need for demand The need for demand management management Passenger transportPassenger transport

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The need for demand The need for demand management management

FreightFreight

Demand is growing fastest for modes of transport that emit higher CO2 levels

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The need for demand The need for demand management management

Leisure, work and shopping appear to be the main drivers of travel in Europe

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The need for demand The need for demand management management

Measures such as congestion charging can promote the use of other modes such as cycling.

Since the introduction of congestion charging in London in 2003 cycling levels have increased.

Konklusion

• Teknologien kan give et bidrag til emissions reduktion men kan ikke stå alene

• Bedre udnyttelse af flåden kan give vigtige bidrag

• Efterspørgselsstyring en nødt til at være en del af pakken