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Developing a programme for the implementation of the 2008 SNA & supporting Statistics
Oliver ChinganyaOliver Chinganya
Statistical Capacity BuildingStatistical Capacity Building
Stats Dept. African Dev. Stats Dept. African Dev. Bank Bank
Seminar on the Seminar on the Implementation of 2008 SNA Implementation of 2008 SNA
Kampala Dec 10-11, 2013Kampala Dec 10-11, 2013
OutlineOutline
• Introduction• Key findings• GDP revisions• Base years• Bank Program to support countries• Way Forward
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Concerns were raised in the international press about the quality of statistics in Africa – particularly GDP estimates
The impression left by this bad publicity was that African statistics are inherently unreliable and that foreign investors are in danger of being seriously misled about the true size and growth of African economies.
IntroductionIntroduction
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The concerns needs to be addressed to put the record
straight. Especially at the critical time when Africa is
witnessing a renaissance of its economic benefits.
IntroductionIntroduction
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But are Africa’s statistics as bad as they are being portrayed by some critics?
In attempting to answer this question, the African
Development Bank in March 2013 decided to undertake a
survey to assess the reliability of GDP data, including the
availability of survey data, price indices, and base years for
constant price GDP.
IntroductionIntroduction
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Upward revisions due to adoption of new SNA version
Improved coverage and classification
Rebasing of base years due to revised population figures, and
good use of recent survey data (agric., industrial or households)
Better coverage of informal sector activities seem to be
responsible for most of the upward revisions, (except in Ghana)
Most countries publish GDP estimates with a lag of one to two
years – this is a significant improvement compared to 10 years
ago
Richer countries are not guaranteed to have good statistics
Some poor countries appear to give high priority to their national
accounts statistics e.g. Niger, Ethiopia and Mozambique
Poor quality scores in statistics – Cong Republic, Cote d’Ivoire,
Equatorial Guinea, and Nigeria
Key findingsKey findings
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African GDPs in both size and direction are commensurate with
those of ASIA and OECD
◦ Thus, African countries do not in general make larger revisions compared to
countries in other regions
Overall, GDP estimates in Africa are NOT nearly as bad as
recently suggested
However, the survey points out some weakness which needs to
be addressed, such as
◦ Stricter adherence to SNA guidelines
◦ Adoption of a regular program of surveys of household, enterprises, &
agriculture
◦ Etc.
Need for enhanced and coordinated support for investment in
data gathering for economic statistics and make data available
to the public
Key findingsKey findings
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Asia
GDP revisionsGDP revisions
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OECD
GDP revisionsGDP revisions
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AFRICA
GDP revisionsGDP revisions
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Africa
GDP Base Years GDP Base Years
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GDP Base YearsGDP Base Years
Base years used:
9 - Cape Verde, Egypt, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Guinea, Malawi, Sao Tome & Principe, Togo and Zimbabwe – 2007 or later
19 – at least 10 but less than 20 years
8 – Benin, Central African Republic, Comoros, Congo Republic, Madagascar, Mali, Nigeria and Sudan- more than 20 years
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Bank program to support Bank program to support countriescountries
Ultimate objective - assist countries produce timely, reliable & comparable economics statistics
Source data Promote the introduction of “economic census” so that
countries can re-base economic indicators around the same period
Household and Establishment survey program Encourage countries to establish Statistical Business
Registers as a basis for improving economic statistics Assist countries immigrate to SNA 2008 within the SHaSA
framework Encourage peer review process of economic statistics
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Way ForwardWay Forward
Countries to complete the diagnostic framework questionnaires
Scoping workshops comprising the major regional & sub-regional organizations & selected African countries.
Two sub-regional workshops consisting of Anglophone countries (SADC, COMESA & the 5 Anglophone ECOWAS countries) & Francophone countries (consisting of the 4 UMA countries & the Francophone countries in West Africa)
◦ Assessment of the completed Diagnostic Framework
for National Accounts and Supporting Economic
Statistics (DF-NA&ES) by the countries
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Way ForwardWay Forward
Finalization of a Regional Implementation Plan
Development of phased national implementation plans - based on national specificities
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Thank youThank you