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CFIA-ACIA

Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) TrainingTraining

International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC)International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC)

CFIA-ACIA

Stages

• Stage 1: Initiation• Stage 2: Pest Risk Assessment

– Step 1: Pest Categorization– Step 2: Assessment of the Probability of

Introduction and Spread– Step 3: Impacts– Step 4: Overall Assessment of Risk– Step 5: Uncertainty

• Stage 3: Pest Risk Management

Pest risk analysis• Stage 1 (initiation) asked:

– What bad thing can happen?

• Stage 2 (pest risk assessment) asked:– How likely is it to happen?– How bad will it be?– Does it matter? Is the risk acceptable?

• Stage 3 (pest risk management) asks:– What can be done about it?

Overall pest risk

Response to risk

Pest identity

Stage 3: Pest Risk Management

– Identifying options

– Evaluating options

– Selecting options

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• Conclusions of pest risk assessment

• Risk acceptable? PRA ends

• Risk unacceptable? PRA continues

Stop

Conclusion of pest risk assessment

• Level of risk can be expressed in various ways– Reference to existing phytosanitary

requirements– Indexed to estimated economic losses– Expressed on a scale of risk tolerance– Compared to the risk presented by the

same pest at a different time– Compared with the level of risk accepted by

other countries– Compared with the level of risk accepted for

other pests

Acceptability of risk

• Acceptable level of risk is established by the NPPO

• When might risk be acceptable?– Level of risk is so low that specific treatment is not

cost effective

– Level of risk is no greater than that already experienced

– Cost of mitigation is excessive compared to the benefit

• When is risk unacceptable?– Pest incursion would result in economic, environmental

or social consequences

Risk is unacceptable • Western corn rootworm in

DE– Spreading in nearby countries – High potential impact due to

crop losses over large area, increasing maize production

– Natural & man-made spread– Unacceptable risk

• Next steps:– Stage 2: Pest risk

management– Identify appropriate

mitigation measures, if any

Pest risk management

• Measures can be implemented – to the growing crop– to the harvested commodity– to associated materials

• Measures can be implemented – at origin or in the exporting country – at the point of entry – within the importing country or

invaded area

• A structured analysis of measures that can be recommended to minimize risks posed by a pest or pathway

Pest risk management• Consider all pathways

– Traded plants or plant products – Natural spread of the pest– Entry with human travellers – Vehicular transport– Associated materials

• Identify points at which mitigation measures might be applied

• Identify possible mitigation measures at each point• Assess each for effectiveness, efficiency, feasibility

….• Select appropriate measure(s)

Mitigation points

Nursery or Orchard

Packing House

Containers PlantationPort of Arrival

Country of Origin Country of

Destination

In Transit

Mitigation points

▪ Place▪ Crop

▪ Commodity▪ Pathway

Country of Origin Country of

Destination

In Transit

▪ Storage Facility▪ Container(s)

▪ Transport(ship, train, truck …)

▪ Commodity▪ Pathway

▪ Place▪ Other

Country of origin• Place/area of production

measures – General or pest-specific surveillance

– Historic data

– Official measures to maintain pest-free status

• Crop measures– Treatment of the crop, field or place of

production

– Growing plants under protected conditions to prevent infestation of the crop

– Specifying time of harvest

– Phytosanitary certification

Country of origin• Commodity Measures

– Inspection or laboratory tests– Prohibition of parts of the host– Restricting the composition of a

consignment– Pre-shipment quarantine– Specified conditions for preparing

the consignment– Treatment for removal of pest(s)

• Pathway measures– Targeted inspections, publicity and

fines or incentives– Measures for machinery, modes of

transportation, or packaging

In transit• Commodity Measures

– Storage conditions may be specified

• Temperature, packaging, separation from other specified plants etc.

– Fumigation or other chemical treatment on board ship

– Ship inspection before loading or at destination

Country of destination

• Commodity Measures– Inspection of consignments at

the point of entry

– Treat the consignment to kill living pests

– Contain imported consignments to limit spread of introduced pests

– Post-entry quarantine

– Limit use, distribution, or timing of consignments

Country of destination

• Prohibition of a specific commodity from specific source– Only if no treatments or

inspection techniques are available and effective in reducing risk to acceptable levels

– A measure of last resort

– IPPC principles of necessity, science-based, managed risk and minimal impact

Other measures• Document

– Phytosanitary Certificates– Import permits– IPPC stamp for SWP

• Phytosanitary Certificates– Official assurance that specified import

requirements are met– Confirms that risk management

measures have been taken– Only for regulated articles

• Educate– Educate & inform

travellers, importers, industry, government or public

Selecting appropriate measures

• Phytosanitary measures should be:– cost-effective & feasible– no more trade-restrictive than

necessary– not imposed if existing measures are

effective• Different measures with the same

effect should be accepted as alternatives

• For pests under official control in PRA area, import measures should be no more restrictive than measures applied within PRA area

Cost-effectiveness

FeasibilityMinimal ImpactEquivalenceNon-

discrimination

Evaluating options

• Evaluate each option for:– Effectiveness

– Efficiency

– Cost effectiveness

– Feasibility

– Reproducibility

– Potential negative social, economic or environmental consequences

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Pest risk analysis• Stage 1 (initiation) asked:

– What bad thing can happen?

• Stage 2 (pest risk assessment) asked:– How likely is it to happen?– How bad will it be?– Does it matter? Is the risk acceptable?

• Stage 3 (pest risk management) asks:– What can be done about it?

Overall pest risk

Response to risk

Pest identity

Selecting options

Option A Option B Option C

Effective √ √

Feasible √ √ √

Efficient √ √ √

Limitations

No Yes Yes

Conclusion

Accept Do not accept

Accept

Risk management example

NurseryPacking House

Ship PlantationPort of Arrival

Country of Origin Country of

Destination

0

20

40

60

80

100

Inspection Cleaning Fumigation No measures Document verification

Risk management example

NurseryPacking House

Ship PlantationPort of Arrival

Country of Origin Country of

Destination

0

20

40

60

80

100

No measures Cleaning, Seed health test No measures No measures Document verification

Lev

el o

f ri

sk

Conclusion of Stage 3

• Risk mitigation measures have been:– Identified– Evaluated– Selected

• Mitigation measures to reduce risk to acceptable level are selected, or

• No mitigation measures are available

Conclusion of PRA

• Pest risk management conclusion:– selection of one of more options or

series of options, OR– no suitable mitigation measures

available

• PRA ends– options form the basis of phytosanitary

regulations or requirements

Costs and Benefits

• “The cost-benefit analysis for each of the minimum measures found to provide acceptable security may be estimated. Those measures with an acceptable benefit-to-cost ratio should be considered.”

• How is this done? What does cost-benefit mean?

Costs and Benefits

• Costs = costs of measure(s) applied– Industry costs: determined from

additional costs / increased labour costs

– Government costs: staff costs to apply and monitor measures

• Benefits = avoiding the losses that the pest would otherwise cause

Costs and Benefits: example

• A risk assessment of Pest x suggests that unless measures are taken it is very likely to be carried on imported host plants from the country of origin to the PRA area where it is very likely to transfer to crops and cause yield losses of $100 ha-1 year-1.

• Based on spread elsewhere it is likely that the entire crop area of 10,000 ha would be infested within 5 years.

Four options are considered1. Source plants from a pest free area

• But exporting country cannot establish a PFA2. Parts of plants (e.g. leaves) prohibited

• But will add cost ($10,000 year-1)3. Inspect crop at origin, apply appropriate

chemical treatment if needed, inspect consignments before export and certify pest free • But will add cost ($40,000 year-1)

4. Post entry quarantine• But will add cost ($300,000 year-1)

Costs and Benefits: example

Costs and Benefits: example

1. PFA 2. Prohibit plant parts

3. Inspection & treatment

4. Post entry quarantine

Effective √ √ (partly)

√ (partly)

√

Feasible x √ √ √

Efficient x √ (partly)

√ (partly)

No

Cost ($’000)

N/A 10 40 300

Conclusion

N/A Apply Apply Too costly

Costs and Benefits: example

• In the short term (5 years) the cost of applying measures will be– Option 2= $50,000 (partly effective)– Option 3 = $200,000 (partly effective)– Option 4 = $1,500,000 (fully effective) – Option 2 & 3 = $250,000 (fully effective)

• The expected cost (5 years) of not applying measures are estimated to be 10,000 infested ha at a cost of $100/ha = $1,000,000

Costs and Benefits: example

Costs Benefits Ratio

Option 2 50,000 1,000,000 1:20

Option 3 200,000 1,000,000 1:5

Option 4 1,500,000 1,000,000 1:0.7

Option 2 & 3 combined

250,000 1,000,000 1:4

Pest Risk Management

• Risk mitigation measures are:– Identified– Evaluated– Selected

• Pest risk is acceptable

• PRA ends

Pest risk assessment

Pest risk management

Pest/pathway