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Adaptive Management: Integrating Inquiry, Decisions,
Policy and Practice
Session IUncertainty and other
Barriers to Adaptive Management
Adaptive Management: Integrating Inquiry, Decisions,
Policy and Practice
Session IUncertainty and other
Barriers to Adaptive Management
Jan Sendzimir
Environmental Partnership for Central Europe - Austria
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Two Main Questions
What is Adaptive Management? - What does it aim to do?
- What has it achieved in theory and practice?
- What factors enhance it?
What is not Adaptive Management? – What has it yet to develop?
– What blocks it?
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OutlineOutline
Brief Overview of AdaptivenessWhat Started the Search for
Adaptiveness?Types and Sources of Uncertainty
Nature - Complexity in time and spaceSociety - Immature management
Barriers to Adaptiveness
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Adaptive PracticesAdaptive Practices
acknowledge and embrace uncertainty Assume we will be surprised because we can’t
predict Create a rigorous process of structured learning
(inquiry and management). treat policies as hypotheses and link the inquiry and
action phases with processes of information feedback, reflection and revision.
encourage the suspension of conflicts as traditional adversaries jointly develop ways to learn from experience.
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Integrating how we understand with how we act
Integrating how we understand with how we act
IntegratedLearning
Policy asHypothesis
Evaluation
Assessment ManagementActionsas tests
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Wicked Problem
Can recognize it - can’t really define it
No single objective function to maximize
Many players working at different levels and using different values that are not commensurate - You can’t add them up
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Wicked Problems
Problems that are complex all the way down.
They don’t successfully decompose at any one level into units that can be added back up to the whole picture.
Things are entangled within levels and across levels (up and down).
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Sources of UncertaintyHow can we oversee all the levels?
Sources of UncertaintyHow can we oversee all the levels?
Spatial complexity makes prediction difficult– Natural systems are patchy and heterogeneous
in the distribution of objects and in the scales at which processes operate.
Summary - Look at Process Operation– Different sets of processes dominate at different
scales to generate different structures characteristic of those scale ranges.
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Ecological ScalingEcological ScalingScale is the spatial and temporal frequency of a process or structure.
Bounds of a scale domain: in space - pixel size and window sizein time- speed and lifetime.
-1
0
1
2
3
4
century
year
month
decade
420- 2- 4- 6
-3
-2
-4
1 000 yrs
day
hour
1cm
1000km
1km
10m
1m
Log Space (km)
10 000 yrs
Log Time
(years)
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Vegetative & Atmospheric ScalesVegetative & Atmospheric Scales
Atmospheric processes occur faster than vegetative processes occurring at the same spatial scale.
LOG SPACE- km
-1
0
1
2
3
4
century
year
month
decade
420- 2- 4- 6
-3
-2
-4
1 000 yrs
day
hour
1cm
1000km
1km
10km
100m
1m
standpatch
crown
needle
forest
region
El Niño
front
s
long waves
thunderstorms
climate change
LOG TIME - years
Vegetative Structures
Atmospheric Processes
10 000 yrs
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Mesoscale ProcessesMesoscale Processes
LOG TIME - years
LOG SPACE- km
-1
0
1
2
3
4
century
year
month
decade
420- 2- 4- 6
-3
-2
-4
1 000 yrs
10 000 yrs
day
hour
Atmospheric Processes
Mesoscale Processes
Boreal forest
1cm
1000km1
km10km
100m1
m
Budworm Outbreaks
Fire
Meso-scaleDisturbanceProcesses(fire, insect outbreaks)link atmosphericprocesses with vegetative structures.
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Sources of UncertaintySources of Uncertainty
Temporal complexity makes prediction difficult.– Natural systems rarely maintain a predictable, linear
course.
– They erupt in episodes of transformation
– Biblical events: pestilence, fire, flood, plagues.
– They may “flip” between different stability domains..
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Examples ofMultiple Stable States
Examples ofMultiple Stable States
Coral Reefs– coral vs. algae
Arid Landscapes– shrubland vs. grassland
Shallow Lakes– eutrophic vs. clear
North Florida Forest– longleaf pine savanna & fire vs.
hardwood forest without fire
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Adaptive Cycle Dynamics
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Potential
Eq. PtX
(a)
X 1
X 2 (b)
Two views of a stable equilibriumA world-view that justifies
taking risks with Nature and/or Society,
because you are always forgiven.
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Unstable Equilibrium (Cassandra):The world is ephemeral and may collapse
at any minute for any small reason.
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Landscape and state space views ofmultiple stable states.
If the system experiences a small perturbation itwill remain in its equilibrium region, but if itexperiences a large perturbation it will shift to adifferent equilibrium state.
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equilibrium state change
1 2
3 4
Landscape and state spaceviews of evolving nature.
The system modifies its own possiblestates, as it changes. In this exampleas time progresses, a progressivelysmaller perturbation is needed tochange the equilibrium state of thesystem from one domain to the other,until the system spontaneouslychanges state. (a) landscaperepresentation. (b) equivalent statespace representation
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Surprise in Florida Bay
Florida BayFlorida Bay
A B
SeagrassClear Water
Muddy WaterAlgae Blooms
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Sources of UncertaintySources of Uncertainty
Society is also complex in space & time– Mosaic of different cultures, politics.– Episodes of transformation
– War, Globalization, Cultural Shifts, AIDS.
Management actions can increase the complexity– Efforts to control ecosystems or society have
started smoothly and ended in catastrophe
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Management Pathologies
Research to control variability that limits production– Crop or fish production, pests, water flow, fire
Initial success --> abandon research to understand, focus on profit maximization
Slow variables change, connecting the system, making it vulnerable to collapse.
Invest heavily to raise production and demand, society becomes dependent on resource.
Collapse - contagious agents spread through the overconnected system.
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Northwest Salmon Fisheries
Salmon nurseries increase production and make it more steady for the moment.
Government subsidizes larger fishing fleets to meet rising public demand.
Larger fleets first deplete wild stocks, leaving mostly nursery salmon.
Large scale variables slowly shift:Habitat destruction, logging, dams erode reproductive capacity of salmon.
Finale: when highly dependent on technology to sustain us, the nurseries are attacked by disease.
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Management PathologyManagement in Linear Bursts
Each problem is a unique, one-way ride.
Crisis: prime motivator for management. Operations - control damage and fix the situation
as soon as possible. As soon as situation improves, move to another
crisis. Experience and memory fade as people and
organizations that made teams to fight the problem are redirected to other areas.
Little or no effort to monitor the situation, assess policies, anticipate future crises.
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Barriers to AdaptivenessFirst Insights from Ecology
Faith in Eden - belief that the world is originally balanced and returns to balance after disturbance. This ignores the reality that systems have multiple stable points and can fall to degraded states that are hard to escape.
Faith in Laboratory Science - we can no longer take what we learn in the laboratory and extrapolate it up to understand the larger world. Different processes operate at different scales.
Faith in Management – Control of variability is temporary and leads to overdeveloped systems
that are increasingly vulnerable to disturbance.– Management applied in linear bursts cannot learn about long term
developments that lead to the next crisis.
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Barriers to Adaptiveness Failures of Institutions & Leaders
Bias towards targets and outcomes – (Numerical goals more important than process)
Data access blocked by – a. no money, b. politics, c. no one aware of data
Expectation that government makes all decisions, has all responsibility
Fear of experimentation Fear of loss of authority Fractured communication and decision-making (government,
science, political groups)
Inability to admit uncertainty
