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ABT WORKABT WORK
SOUTHERN REGION SOUTHERN REGION EXPERIENCEEXPERIENCE
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"If a path to the better there "If a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look be, it begins with a full look
at the worst."at the worst."-- Thomas Hardy -- Thomas Hardy
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GRID OPERATION IN THE GRID OPERATION IN THE PAST PAST
LOW FREQUENCY PROBLEMSLOW FREQUENCY PROBLEMS FREQUENCY REMAINED AT 48 HZ AND BELOW FOR MOST FREQUENCY REMAINED AT 48 HZ AND BELOW FOR MOST
PARTPART LOW VOLTAGE OPERATIONLOW VOLTAGE OPERATION
VOLTAGE AT BANGALORE DIPPED TO AS LOW AS 300 Kv!!!!VOLTAGE AT BANGALORE DIPPED TO AS LOW AS 300 Kv!!!! FREQUENT GRID DISTURBANCESFREQUENT GRID DISTURBANCES
A DISTURBANCE ALMOST EVERY MONTHA DISTURBANCE ALMOST EVERY MONTH IMMENSE FINANCIAL LOSSES FOR INDUSTRYIMMENSE FINANCIAL LOSSES FOR INDUSTRY LOADS FREQUENTLY CUT OFF DUE TO RELAY OPERATIONLOADS FREQUENTLY CUT OFF DUE TO RELAY OPERATION
INCREASED ELECTRICAL LOSSESINCREASED ELECTRICAL LOSSES INEFFICIENT OPERATION OF ELECTRIC EQUIPMENTSINEFFICIENT OPERATION OF ELECTRIC EQUIPMENTS
INEFFICIENTINEFFICIENT UTILISATION OF PIT HEAD PLANTS UTILISATION OF PIT HEAD PLANTS MERIT ORDER AND ECONOMY TAKE A BACKSEATMERIT ORDER AND ECONOMY TAKE A BACKSEAT ARCHAIC SETTLEMENT SYSTEMARCHAIC SETTLEMENT SYSTEM GRID OPERATION FOCUSSED ON FIRE-FIGHTING GRID OPERATION FOCUSSED ON FIRE-FIGHTING
RATHER THAN OPTIMISATION AND ECONOMYRATHER THAN OPTIMISATION AND ECONOMY
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PROBLEMS IN THE PASTPROBLEMS IN THE PASTAN INSIGHTAN INSIGHT
THE ‘THE ‘LOGIC OF THE COMMONSLOGIC OF THE COMMONS’ WORKS AS LONG ’ WORKS AS LONG AS ‘THE COMMONS’ ARE VAST AND HAVE AS ‘THE COMMONS’ ARE VAST AND HAVE UNLIMITED RESOURCEUNLIMITED RESOURCE
THE ‘THE ‘LOGIC OF THE COMMONSLOGIC OF THE COMMONS’ BREAKS DOWN ’ BREAKS DOWN WHEN RESOURCES PER USER GETS CONSTRAINEDWHEN RESOURCES PER USER GETS CONSTRAINED
GAME THEORY ON THE OTHER HAND GIVES A GAME THEORY ON THE OTHER HAND GIVES A VALUABLE INSIGHT INTO THE ‘PLAYERS’ IN THE VALUABLE INSIGHT INTO THE ‘PLAYERS’ IN THE COMMONSCOMMONS EVERY ‘PLAYER’ TRIES TO MAXIMISE HIS OWN PAYOFFSEVERY ‘PLAYER’ TRIES TO MAXIMISE HIS OWN PAYOFFS CONSEQUENTLY THE ‘COMMONS’ GETS DENUDED CONSEQUENTLY THE ‘COMMONS’ GETS DENUDED
RAPIDLYRAPIDLY WE END UP WITH ‘WE END UP WITH ‘THE TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONSTHE TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS’ ’
SCENARIOSCENARIO KNEE-JERK REGULATORY ACTIONS FOLLOW –KNEE-JERK REGULATORY ACTIONS FOLLOW –
MORE HARMFUL THAN MORE HARMFUL THAN SALUTARYSALUTARY
AN ASTONISHING PARALLEL CAN BE FOUND IN THE AN ASTONISHING PARALLEL CAN BE FOUND IN THE ‘ELECTRIC GRID’ AND ITS EQUILIBRIUM ‘ELECTRIC GRID’ AND ITS EQUILIBRIUM SCALAR-‘FREQUENCY’SCALAR-‘FREQUENCY’
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FREQUENCY CONTROLFREQUENCY CONTROL
FREQUENCY IS THE MESSENGER-FREQUENCY IS THE MESSENGER-NOT THE MESSAGENOT THE MESSAGE
FREQUENCY HAS TO BE FREQUENCY HAS TO BE COLLECTIVELY CONTROLLED AND COLLECTIVELY CONTROLLED AND DEMOCRATICALLY STABILISEDDEMOCRATICALLY STABILISED
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BEHAVIOUR IN AN BEHAVIOUR IN AN INTER-CONNECTED INTER-CONNECTED
SYSTEMSYSTEM THE INTER CONNECTED OPERATION IS THE INTER CONNECTED OPERATION IS
A PRECARIOUS ENTERPRISE, RARELY A PRECARIOUS ENTERPRISE, RARELY PERFECT, OFTEN FRAGILE AND PERFECT, OFTEN FRAGILE AND SOMETIMES YOU WONDER IF IT IS SOMETIMES YOU WONDER IF IT IS WORTH THE EXPERIENCEWORTH THE EXPERIENCE
A PRUDENT CONSTITUENT SHOULD A PRUDENT CONSTITUENT SHOULD TAKE ACTION IMAGINING THAT HE IS TAKE ACTION IMAGINING THAT HE IS ISLANDED – THEN THE GRID WILL ISLANDED – THEN THE GRID WILL COME TO HIS RESCUECOME TO HIS RESCUE
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HOW DID HOW DID ABTABT ADDRESS ADDRESS THETHE
‘‘CURSE OF THE CURSE OF THE COMMONSCOMMONS’?’? ABT DIS-INCENTIVISED GREEDABT DIS-INCENTIVISED GREED
ABT RE-DEFINED HOW THE ABT RE-DEFINED HOW THE STAKEHOLDERS INTERACT WITH STAKEHOLDERS INTERACT WITH THE COMMONSTHE COMMONS THE USERS OF THE COMMONS THE USERS OF THE COMMONS
COULD BENEFIT FROM ‘COULD BENEFIT FROM ‘TAKINGTAKING’ AS ’ AS WELL AS ‘WELL AS ‘GIVINGGIVING’ TO THE COMMONS’ TO THE COMMONS
ABT OBVIATES THE NEED FOR ABT OBVIATES THE NEED FOR ELABORATE REGULATORY MEASURESELABORATE REGULATORY MEASURES
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ABT AND THE ABT AND THE NASH NASH
EQUILIBRIUMEQUILIBRIUM
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Basic Ideas of Game Basic Ideas of Game TheoryTheory
GAME THEORYGAME THEORY IS THE GENERAL IS THE GENERAL THEORY OF STRATEGIC BEHAVIOR.THEORY OF STRATEGIC BEHAVIOR.
GENERALLY DEPICTED IN GENERALLY DEPICTED IN MATHEMATICAL FORM. MATHEMATICAL FORM.
PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN MODERN MODERN ECONOMICS.ECONOMICS.
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Rules, Strategies, Rules, Strategies, Payoffs, and EquilibriumPayoffs, and Equilibrium
ECONOMIC SITUATIONS ARE ECONOMIC SITUATIONS ARE TREATED AS GAMES.TREATED AS GAMES.
THE THE RULESRULES OF THE GAME STATE OF THE GAME STATE WHO CAN DO WHAT, WHO CAN DO WHAT, AND WHEN AND WHEN THEY CAN DO IT.THEY CAN DO IT.
A PLAYER'S A PLAYER'S STRATEGYSTRATEGY IS A PLAN IS A PLAN FOR ACTIONS IN FOR ACTIONS IN EACH POSSIBLE EACH POSSIBLE SITUATION IN THE GAME.SITUATION IN THE GAME.
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Rules, Strategies, Rules, Strategies, Payoffs, and EquilibriumPayoffs, and Equilibrium
ECONOMIC SITUATIONS ARE ECONOMIC SITUATIONS ARE TREATED AS GAMES.TREATED AS GAMES.
A PLAYER'S A PLAYER'S PAYOFFPAYOFF IS THE AMOUNT IS THE AMOUNT THAT THETHAT THE PLAYER WINS OR LOSES IN PLAYER WINS OR LOSES IN A PARTICULAR SITUATION IN A GAME.A PARTICULAR SITUATION IN A GAME.
A PLAYERS HAS A A PLAYERS HAS A DOMINANT DOMINANT STRATEGYSTRATEGY IF THAT PLAYER'S BEST IF THAT PLAYER'S BEST STRATEGY DOES NOT DEPEND ON WHAT STRATEGY DOES NOT DEPEND ON WHAT OTHER PLAYERS DO.OTHER PLAYERS DO.
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Nash EquilibriumNash Equilibrium
OCCURS WHEN EACH PLAYER'S OCCURS WHEN EACH PLAYER'S STRATEGY IS OPTIMAL, GIVEN THE STRATEGY IS OPTIMAL, GIVEN THE STRATEGIES OF THE OTHER PLAYERS.STRATEGIES OF THE OTHER PLAYERS.
A PLAYER'S A PLAYER'S BEST RESPONSEBEST RESPONSE (OR BEST (OR BEST STRATEGY) IS STRATEGY) IS THE STRATEGY THAT THE STRATEGY THAT MAXIMIZES THAT PLAYER'S PAYOFF, GIVEN MAXIMIZES THAT PLAYER'S PAYOFF, GIVEN THE STRATEGIES OF OTHER PLAYERS.THE STRATEGIES OF OTHER PLAYERS.
A A NASH EQUILIBRIUMNASH EQUILIBRIUM IS A SITUATION IS A SITUATION IN WHICH EACH PLAYER MAKES HIS OR IN WHICH EACH PLAYER MAKES HIS OR HER BEST RESPONSE.HER BEST RESPONSE.
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THE INDIA ELECTRICITY THE INDIA ELECTRICITY MARKETMARKET
TIME LINETIME LINE
REAL TIME15 MT BLOCKS
LONG TERMLOAD FORECAST
FUND MOBILISATION
10-5 YEARS
POWER PURCHASEAGREEMENTS
CAPACITY COMMITTMENT
1-5 YEARS
SHORT TERMLOAD FORECAST
DAY-AHEAD SCHEDULING
WEEK TO DAY AHEAD
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ABT AND GAME THEORYABT AND GAME THEORYTHE THREE GAMESTHE THREE GAMES
LONG TERM CAPACITY BOOKING:-LONG TERM CAPACITY BOOKING:- ONE TIME GAMEONE TIME GAME
DAY AHEAD SCHEDULINGDAY AHEAD SCHEDULING SPOT MARKET (UI)SPOT MARKET (UI)
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THE BRASS THE BRASS TACKSTACKS
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IMPROVEMENTS IN GRID IMPROVEMENTS IN GRID OPERATIONOPERATION
POWER SYSTEM PARAMETERSPOWER SYSTEM PARAMETERS FREQUENCY IMPROVEDFREQUENCY IMPROVED VOLTAGES STABLE ACROSS THE GRIDVOLTAGES STABLE ACROSS THE GRID
OPTIMAL OPERATIONOPTIMAL OPERATION LOSSES REDUCED BY 1-1.5 % THROUGHOUT THE LOSSES REDUCED BY 1-1.5 % THROUGHOUT THE
GRIDGRID SAVINGS OF ABOUT Rs 450 CRORES SAVINGS OF ABOUT Rs 450 CRORES
EVERY YEAR!!!EVERY YEAR!!! NO MAJOR DISTURBANCE FOR THE PAST 2 YEARSNO MAJOR DISTURBANCE FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS
SPECIAL PROTECTION SCHEME EVOLVEDSPECIAL PROTECTION SCHEME EVOLVED ULDC HELPS SAVE MANY GRID DISTURBANCESULDC HELPS SAVE MANY GRID DISTURBANCES
MERIT ORDER OPERATION :- OPTIMISATIOMERIT ORDER OPERATION :- OPTIMISATIONN
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IMPROVEMENTS IN GRID IMPROVEMENTS IN GRID OPERATIONOPERATION
HYDRO CONSERVATIONHYDRO CONSERVATION HEALTHY RESERVOIR LEVELS HEALTHY RESERVOIR LEVELS USE HYDRO GENERATION FOR PEAKING USE HYDRO GENERATION FOR PEAKING
AND RESERVEAND RESERVE PUMP MODE OPERATION AT KADAMPARAIPUMP MODE OPERATION AT KADAMPARAI
TALCHER – KOLAR LINKTALCHER – KOLAR LINK INTER REGIONAL POWER :- INTER REGIONAL POWER :- 10530MUs/1600MW 10530MUs/1600MW
MAXMAX UTILISATION OF COMMERCIAL MECHANISMUTILISATION OF COMMERCIAL MECHANISM
TURNOVER OF 5143 MU ON UI WORTH MORE TURNOVER OF 5143 MU ON UI WORTH MORE THAN 900 CRORESTHAN 900 CRORES
COSTLY GENERATION REDUCED.COSTLY GENERATION REDUCED.
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IMPROVEMENTS IN THE SR IMPROVEMENTS IN THE SR GRID:GRID:
AN ANALYSISAN ANALYSISDEMAND vs FREQ SCATTER DIAGRAM
FREQ COMPARISION SCROLL
FREQ HISTOGRAM
3D FREQ JAN 2002VOLTAGE SCROLL
3D FREQ JAN 20043D FREQ JAN 2003
3D DEMAND SR NOV-04
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UI – ITS MANYAVATARS!
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UNSCHEDULE UNSCHEDULE INTERCHANGEINTERCHANGE
It's more than what meets It's more than what meets the eye!!!!the eye!!!!
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WHAT’S OUR WHAT’S OUR OBJECTIVE?OBJECTIVE?
ECONOMIC OPERATION OF THE ECONOMIC OPERATION OF THE GRIDGRID
PROMOTE TRADEPROMOTE TRADE STABILITY OF THE GRIDSTABILITY OF THE GRID ROBUST SETTLEMENT SYSTEMROBUST SETTLEMENT SYSTEM COMMERCIAL MECHANISM COMMERCIAL MECHANISM
WHICH COMPLEMENTS SECURITYWHICH COMPLEMENTS SECURITY SEAMLESS CHANGE PROCESSSEAMLESS CHANGE PROCESS FREEDOMFREEDOM
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LET’S SEE HOW LET’S SEE HOW THE UI THE UI
MECHANISM OF MECHANISM OF ABT TAKES ON ABT TAKES ON MANY MANY AVATARSAVATARS
The fox knows many things, The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one but the hedgehog knows one
bigbig thing …… thing ……
——Greek poet Greek poet ArchilochusArchilochus
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THE MANY THE MANY AAVVAATTAARRSS PROMOTING TRADEPROMOTING TRADE COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENTCOMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT OPEN ACCESSOPEN ACCESS BALANCING/SPOT MARKETBALANCING/SPOT MARKET ROBUST SETTLEMENT MECHANISMROBUST SETTLEMENT MECHANISM NASH EQUILIBRIUMNASH EQUILIBRIUM ULTIMATE OPTIMISERULTIMATE OPTIMISER OPEN AND FAIR MARKET PLACEOPEN AND FAIR MARKET PLACE WIN-WIN PLATFORMWIN-WIN PLATFORM
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IT’S SIMPLICITY IT’S SIMPLICITY ITSELF!ITSELF!
INEXPENSIVE TO IMPLEMENTINEXPENSIVE TO IMPLEMENT MINIMUM LOGISTICSMINIMUM LOGISTICS METERING IN PLACE IN MOST PLACESMETERING IN PLACE IN MOST PLACES
PRICE SIGNAL AVAILABLE AT ANY PRICE SIGNAL AVAILABLE AT ANY
POWER OUTLET POWER OUTLET !! EASY SETTLEMENTEASY SETTLEMENT EASE OF REGULATIONEASE OF REGULATION EASY TO UNDERSTAND AND EASY TO UNDERSTAND AND
IMPLEMENTIMPLEMENT
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THE PROBLEMS EARLIER….THE PROBLEMS EARLIER….
ERRATIC FREQUENCYERRATIC FREQUENCY LOW VOLTAGESLOW VOLTAGES FREQUENT DISTURBANCESFREQUENT DISTURBANCES OVER/UNDER DRAWALS CAUSING OVER/UNDER DRAWALS CAUSING
CONSTRAINTSCONSTRAINTS INDISCIPLINED SYSTEM OPERATIONINDISCIPLINED SYSTEM OPERATION ARCHAIC SETTLEMENT SYSTEMARCHAIC SETTLEMENT SYSTEM
2002-2003-04 FREQ
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THE THE AAVVAATTAARRSS OF UI OF UI TRADITIONALTRADITIONAL
SETTLEMENT OF DEVIATIONSSETTLEMENT OF DEVIATIONS GRID DISCIPLINEGRID DISCIPLINE
PRICE/OPTIMISATION VECTORPRICE/OPTIMISATION VECTOR SPOT MARKETSPOT MARKET BALANCING MARKETBALANCING MARKET MERIT ORDER OPERATIONMERIT ORDER OPERATION
REGULATIONREGULATION EASY TO REGULATEEASY TO REGULATE SINGLE VECTORSINGLE VECTOR ACCOUNTABILITY OF ALL STAKEHOLDERSACCOUNTABILITY OF ALL STAKEHOLDERS ‘‘RIGGING’ PROOFRIGGING’ PROOF SEAMLESS CHANGE PROCESSSEAMLESS CHANGE PROCESS
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THE THE AAVVAATTAARRSS OF UI OF UI
SETTLEMENT FRAMEWORKSETTLEMENT FRAMEWORK PUMPED STORAGEPUMPED STORAGE MERCHANT GENERATORMERCHANT GENERATOR CAPTIVE POWER PLANTCAPTIVE POWER PLANT DISCOMSDISCOMS ARBITRAGEARBITRAGE
CATALYST FOR COALITIONCATALYST FOR COALITION CO-OPERATION THROUGH NON-CO-OPERATIONCO-OPERATION THROUGH NON-CO-OPERATION SELF HEALING MECHANISM’SELF HEALING MECHANISM’ TRANSPARENCYTRANSPARENCY IMPOSSIBLE TO RIG PRICESIMPOSSIBLE TO RIG PRICES NEUTRALITYNEUTRALITY PSEUDO COMPETITORPSEUDO COMPETITOR PAYMENT SECURITY THROUGH THE POOLPAYMENT SECURITY THROUGH THE POOL FREEDOM OF CHOICEFREEDOM OF CHOICE ELIMINATES ELABORATE CONTRACTUAL ELIMINATES ELABORATE CONTRACTUAL
AGREEMENTSAGREEMENTS
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FREQ COMPARISION
3 YEARS
HISTOGRAM OF
FREQ
SCROLL
DMD VS FREQ
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THE BASIC PREMISE THE BASIC PREMISE OF UIOF UI
HELPING THE GRID GETS HELPING THE GRID GETS REWARDED, HURTING THE GRID REWARDED, HURTING THE GRID IS PENALISEDIS PENALISED
UI Mechanism presumes constraint-less UI Mechanism presumes constraint-less transmission system and ignores the transmission system and ignores the losses.losses.
UI market of a few crores regulates a UI market of a few crores regulates a market more than 100 times its size.market more than 100 times its size.
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QUESTIONSQUESTIONS CAN IT BE OPTIMISED FURTHER?CAN IT BE OPTIMISED FURTHER? WHAT IS THE FREQUENCY BAND WE WOULD LIKE WHAT IS THE FREQUENCY BAND WE WOULD LIKE
TO MAINTAIN?TO MAINTAIN? WILL THE NEW VECTOR STILL PRESERVE THE WILL THE NEW VECTOR STILL PRESERVE THE
STRONG EQUILIBRIUM?STRONG EQUILIBRIUM? IS IT KEEPING PACE WITH MARKET MATURITY?IS IT KEEPING PACE WITH MARKET MATURITY? DOES IT ENCOURAGE NEW INVESTMENT?DOES IT ENCOURAGE NEW INVESTMENT? DOES IT PROVIDE FLEXIBILITY TO THE SYSTEM DOES IT PROVIDE FLEXIBILITY TO THE SYSTEM
OPERATOR ?OPERATOR ? COULD IT CAUSE FURTHER ECONOMY IN REAL COULD IT CAUSE FURTHER ECONOMY IN REAL
TIME OPERATION ?TIME OPERATION ? SHOULD IT NECESSARILY HAVE TO BE SAME FOR SHOULD IT NECESSARILY HAVE TO BE SAME FOR
ALL THE REGION (GENERATION COST AND LOAD ALL THE REGION (GENERATION COST AND LOAD AND SEASONS ARE DIFFERENT) ?AND SEASONS ARE DIFFERENT) ?
UI ACTS AS REFERENCE FOR THE PRICE OF UI ACTS AS REFERENCE FOR THE PRICE OF BILATERAL TRADE – IS THAT GOOD?BILATERAL TRADE – IS THAT GOOD?
IS THE UI PRICE TOO HIGH OR TOO LOW ?IS THE UI PRICE TOO HIGH OR TOO LOW ? DOES IT ENCOURAGE OR DOES IT HINDER TRADE?DOES IT ENCOURAGE OR DOES IT HINDER TRADE?
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UI : REFINEMENTSUI : REFINEMENTS
CHANGE THE SLOPECHANGE THE SLOPE CHANGE THE FREQUENCY RANGECHANGE THE FREQUENCY RANGE DIFFERENT CURVES FOR BUY/SELLDIFFERENT CURVES FOR BUY/SELL DIFFERENT CURVES FOR DIFFERENT DIFFERENT CURVES FOR DIFFERENT
SEASONSEASON MULTI SLOPE/ KINKSMULTI SLOPE/ KINKS TIME-OF-DAY ELEMENTTIME-OF-DAY ELEMENT
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CHANGING THE SLOPECHANGING THE SLOPE
FREQUENCY WOULD BE IN A FREQUENCY WOULD BE IN A TIGHTER RANGE (49.6 TO 50 HZ.)TIGHTER RANGE (49.6 TO 50 HZ.)
WOULD HELP FGMO - AS UNITS ON WOULD HELP FGMO - AS UNITS ON BARS ON FGMO WOULD FACE LESS BARS ON FGMO WOULD FACE LESS VARIATIONS.VARIATIONS.
SCOPE FOR COSTLIER UNITS TO GET SCOPE FOR COSTLIER UNITS TO GET DESPATCHEDDESPATCHED
ARBITRAGE WOULD BECOME ARBITRAGE WOULD BECOME DIFFICULT AS PRICE CHANGES DIFFICULT AS PRICE CHANGES WOULD BE RAPID.WOULD BE RAPID.
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0306090
120150180210240270300330360390420450480510540570600630
48.5
0
48.6
048
.70
48.8
048
.90
49.0
049
.10
49.2
0
49.3
049
.40
49.5
049
.60
49.7
0
49.8
049
.90
50.0
050
.10
50.2
050
.30
50.4
0
50.5
050
.60
50.7
050
.80
50.9
051
.00
51.1
0
FREQUENCY IN HZ
UI P
RIC
E IN
PA
ISA
/UN
ITIN SR 16000MW OF THERMALS OUT OF 18300 MW (87%) HAS VARIABLE COST THAT FALLS IN THIS RANGE
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CHANGE THE FREQUENCY CHANGE THE FREQUENCY RANGERANGE
DURING PEAK MONTHS, THE SR DURING PEAK MONTHS, THE SR FREQUENCY LIES BETWEEN 49.6 HZ. FREQUENCY LIES BETWEEN 49.6 HZ. TO 49.0 HZ. MOST OF THE TIME. TO 49.0 HZ. MOST OF THE TIME. SQUEEZING THE FREQUENCY RANGE SQUEEZING THE FREQUENCY RANGE FROM 49.0 HZ. TO 50.5 HZ. TO 49.5 HZ. FROM 49.0 HZ. TO 50.5 HZ. TO 49.5 HZ. TO 50.3 HZ. RANGE WOULD HAVE THE TO 50.3 HZ. RANGE WOULD HAVE THE FOLLOWING IMPACT:FOLLOWING IMPACT:
FREQUENCY VARIATIONS WOULD FREQUENCY VARIATIONS WOULD COME DOWN – GOOD FOR FGMOCOME DOWN – GOOD FOR FGMO
EFFECTIVELY CHANGING SLOPEEFFECTIVELY CHANGING SLOPE
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UI_PRICE Vs FREQUENCY-CURVES:- Squeezing the frequency
0306090
12015018021024027030033036039042045048051054057060063048
.50
48.6
0
48.7
0
48.8
0
48.9
0
49.0
0
49.1
0
49.2
0
49.3
0
49.4
0
49.5
0
49.6
0
49.7
0
49.8
0
49.9
0
50.0
0
50.1
0
50.2
0
50.3
0
50.4
0
50.5
0
50.6
0
50.7
0
50.8
0
50.9
0
51.0
0
51.1
0
FREQUENCY IN HZ
UI P
RIC
E IN
PA
ISA
/UN
IT
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MULTIPLE SLOPEMULTIPLE SLOPE PROVIDE ‘KNEE POINT’ WHERE PROVIDE ‘KNEE POINT’ WHERE
FREQUENCY WOULD PROBABLY FREQUENCY WOULD PROBABLY CONCENTRATE FOR MOST PERIODSCONCENTRATE FOR MOST PERIODS
KNEE POINT CAN BE DECIDED KNEE POINT CAN BE DECIDED BASED ON GENERATION MIX, BASED ON GENERATION MIX, SEASONAL PATTERNSSEASONAL PATTERNS
CAN BE USED TO ‘FOCUS’ ON CAN BE USED TO ‘FOCUS’ ON INTER-REGIONAL TRADING – INTER-REGIONAL TRADING – PROMOTE ‘GLOBAL ECONOMY’PROMOTE ‘GLOBAL ECONOMY’
CONCEPT OF SOFT AND HARD CONCEPT OF SOFT AND HARD RANGE MECHANISMRANGE MECHANISM
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UI_PRICE Vs FREQUENCY-CURVES:-MULTI-SLOPE
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
360
400
440
480
520
560
600
64048
.50
48.6
0
48.7
0
48.8
0
48.9
0
49.0
0
49.1
0
49.2
0
49.3
0
49.4
0
49.5
0
49.6
0
49.7
0
49.8
0
49.9
0
50.0
0
50.1
0
50.2
0
50.3
0
50.4
0
50.5
0
50.6
0
50.7
0
50.8
0
50.9
0
51.0
0
51.1
0
FREQUENCY IN HZ
UI P
RIC
E IN
PA
ISA
/UN
IT
MULTIPLE
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DIFFERENT CURVES FOR BUYING AND DIFFERENT CURVES FOR BUYING AND SELLINGSELLING
TO INSULATE THE TRANSCO FROM TO INSULATE THE TRANSCO FROM LOSSES AND OTHER CHARGESLOSSES AND OTHER CHARGES
MAKE THE PROCEDURE SIMPLERMAKE THE PROCEDURE SIMPLER NO POST-FACTO CALCULATION:LOSS IS NO POST-FACTO CALCULATION:LOSS IS
IN-BUILTIN-BUILT BOTH CURVES CAN BE OFF-SET BY A BOTH CURVES CAN BE OFF-SET BY A
SMALL AMOUNT, SAY 15-20 PS.SMALL AMOUNT, SAY 15-20 PS. ENABLE CPPS TO OPERATE SEAMLESSLY.ENABLE CPPS TO OPERATE SEAMLESSLY. PROVIDES FOR LOSSES – REDUCE PROVIDES FOR LOSSES – REDUCE
POSSIBILITY OF GAMING (CFD-CONTRACT POSSIBILITY OF GAMING (CFD-CONTRACT FOR DIFFERENCE)FOR DIFFERENCE)
MECHANISM EXISTS TO TAKE CARE OF MECHANISM EXISTS TO TAKE CARE OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAYABLES-DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAYABLES-RECEIVABLES RECEIVABLES
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UI_PRICE Vs FREQUENCY:- 'BUY &'SELL' CURVES
0306090
12015018021024027030033036039042045048051054057060048
.50
48.6
0
48.7
0
48.8
0
48.9
0
49.0
0
49.1
0
49.2
0
49.3
0
49.4
0
49.5
0
49.6
0
49.7
0
49.8
0
49.9
0
50.0
0
50.1
0
50.2
0
50.3
0
50.4
0
50.5
0
50.6
0
50.7
0
50.8
0
50.9
0
51.0
0
51.1
0
FREQUENCY IN HZ
UI P
RIC
E IN
PA
ISA
/UN
IT
'SELL' CURVE
'BUY' CURVE
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SEASONAL UI CURVESSEASONAL UI CURVES
TWO PREDOMINANT SEASONS : TWO PREDOMINANT SEASONS : RAINY SEASON (JUNE-SEPT.) AND RAINY SEASON (JUNE-SEPT.) AND PEAK (OCT. – MAY)PEAK (OCT. – MAY)
GENERATION MIX SHOULD BE GENERATION MIX SHOULD BE DIFFERENT FOR BOTH THESE DIFFERENT FOR BOTH THESE SEASONS TO ENABLE OPTIMUM SEASONS TO ENABLE OPTIMUM USE OF RUN-OF-THE-RIVER AND USE OF RUN-OF-THE-RIVER AND SHALLOW STORAGE PLANTSSHALLOW STORAGE PLANTS
PRICE SIGNAL SHOULD REFLECT PRICE SIGNAL SHOULD REFLECT THISTHIS
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UI_PRICE Vs FREQUENCY:- SEASONAL CURVES
0306090
12015018021024027030033036039042045048051054057060063048
.50
48.6
0
48.7
0
48.8
0
48.9
0
49.0
0
49.1
0
49.2
0
49.3
0
49.4
0
49.5
0
49.6
0
49.7
0
49.8
0
49.9
0
50.0
0
50.1
0
50.2
0
50.3
0
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0
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0
50.6
0
50.7
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50.8
0
50.9
0
51.0
0
51.1
0
FREQUENCY IN HZ
UI P
RIC
E IN
PA
ISA
/UN
IT
MONSOON CURVE
PEAK SEASON CURVE
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3D UI CURVE3D UI CURVE ‘‘TIME-OF-THE-DAY’ ELEMENT IS TIME-OF-THE-DAY’ ELEMENT IS
INTRODUCEDINTRODUCED TOD, TFOD,FTOD,FODUITOD, TFOD,FTOD,FODUI OVER/UNDER DRAWAL AT DIFFERENT TIME OVER/UNDER DRAWAL AT DIFFERENT TIME
OF THE DAY IS CHARGED DIFFERENTLYOF THE DAY IS CHARGED DIFFERENTLY SCOPE FOR MORE REALISTIC DISPATCHSCOPE FOR MORE REALISTIC DISPATCH WOULD WORK IN NARROW FREQUENCY WOULD WORK IN NARROW FREQUENCY
BANDBAND HELPS IN UNIT COMMITMENTHELPS IN UNIT COMMITMENT BRINGS MORE CERTAINTY TO UI PRICEBRINGS MORE CERTAINTY TO UI PRICE WOULD HELP IN FGMO50.5WOULD HELP IN FGMO50.5 RETAINS ALL GOOD FEATURES OF EXISTING RETAINS ALL GOOD FEATURES OF EXISTING
UI RATE UI RATE
43
3 D UI OF THE FUTURE?3 D UI OF THE FUTURE?
49.0
50.5
49.6
300
600
500
400
UI RATE
44
GAME THEORY CONCEPTSGAME THEORY CONCEPTS
MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS FOR INTERACTIONS MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS FOR INTERACTIONS BETWEEN PEOPLE.BETWEEN PEOPLE.
THESE INTERACTIONS ARE CALLED GAMES.THESE INTERACTIONS ARE CALLED GAMES. GAMES ARE PLAYED BY RATIONAL PEOPLE.GAMES ARE PLAYED BY RATIONAL PEOPLE. RATIONAL PLAYERS IN A GAME LOOK TO MAXIMISING RATIONAL PLAYERS IN A GAME LOOK TO MAXIMISING
THEIR INDIVIDUAL PAY-OFF’s.THEIR INDIVIDUAL PAY-OFF’s. AN EQUILIBRIUM POINT IS REACHED WHEN ANY AN EQUILIBRIUM POINT IS REACHED WHEN ANY
PLAYER CANNOT INCREASE HIS PAYOFF PLAYER CANNOT INCREASE HIS PAYOFF UNILATERALLY.UNILATERALLY.
THIS IS REFFERED TO AS A ‘NASH’ EQUILIBRIUM THIS IS REFFERED TO AS A ‘NASH’ EQUILIBRIUM AFTER ITS PROPONENT JOHN NASH.AFTER ITS PROPONENT JOHN NASH.
SOME OF THE TYPES OF GAMES ARESOME OF THE TYPES OF GAMES ARE ZERO SUM GAMEZERO SUM GAME CO-OPERATIVE/NON CO-OPERATIVE GAMESCO-OPERATIVE/NON CO-OPERATIVE GAMES REPETITIVE GAMESREPETITIVE GAMES
GAME THEORY CONCEPTS ARE USED TO MODEL GAME THEORY CONCEPTS ARE USED TO MODEL HUMAN BEHAVIOUR/STRATEGIES IN A COMPETITIVE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR/STRATEGIES IN A COMPETITIVE MARKETMARKET
THESE CONCEPTS CAN FIND PARALLELS IN THE UI THESE CONCEPTS CAN FIND PARALLELS IN THE UI MARKETPLACEMARKETPLACE
45
GAME THORY AND UIGAME THORY AND UI ZERO SUM GAME :- ZERO SUM GAME :- Σ OF EVERY PLAYERS UI IS Σ OF EVERY PLAYERS UI IS
ZEROZERO REPETITIVE GAME :- PLAYED EVERY 15 MTS REPETITIVE GAME :- PLAYED EVERY 15 MTS
(ONE TIME BLOCK OF ABT)(ONE TIME BLOCK OF ABT) NON-CO-OPERATIVE GAME :- EVERY PLAYER NON-CO-OPERATIVE GAME :- EVERY PLAYER
LOOKS TO MAXIMISING PAYOFF – ‘…. LOOKS TO MAXIMISING PAYOFF – ‘…. ITS’ ITS’ HUMAN TO WANT MORE….!!!’HUMAN TO WANT MORE….!!!’
EQUILIBRIA IS REACHED BETWEEN 49 AND EQUILIBRIA IS REACHED BETWEEN 49 AND 50.5 HZ- STEADY STATE FREQUENCY50.5 HZ- STEADY STATE FREQUENCY
MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIUM POINTS IN THE MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIUM POINTS IN THE RANGERANGE
THIS EXPLAINS WHY AN UI MARKET OF A FEW THIS EXPLAINS WHY AN UI MARKET OF A FEW CRORES REGULATES A MARKET MORE THAN A CRORES REGULATES A MARKET MORE THAN A THOUSAND TIMES ITS SIZE!THOUSAND TIMES ITS SIZE!
46
47
48
47.50
48.00
48.50
49.00
49.50
50.00
50.50
51.00
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
DAYS ----->
FR
EQ
UE
NC
Y IN
HZ
---
->FREQUENCY PROFILEFREQUENCY PROFILE
2002, 2003 & 2004
49
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
42000
:05
01:0
5
02:0
5
03:0
5
04:0
5
05:0
5
06:0
5
07:0
5
08:0
5
09:0
5
10:0
5
11:0
5
12:0
5
13:0
5
14:0
5
15:0
5
16:0
5
17:0
5
18:0
5
19:0
5
20:0
5
21:0
5
22:0
5
23:0
5
TIME IN HRS --->
VO
LT
AG
E IN
KV
---
>
REALITY BITE:
FARMERS IN KARNATAKA ARE HAPPY WITH FEWER HOURS OF QUALITY POWER!!.
EFFICIENCY OF PUMPS AT TG HALLI WATER WORKS IMPROVED!
COMPARISION OF BANGALORE VOLTAGE-TYPICAL DAY
BETTER VOLTAGE PROFILE MEANS LESS ELECTRICAL LOSSES
50
WATER SUPPLY TO WATER SUPPLY TO BANGALOREBANGALORE
LOW VOLTAGE PROBLEMS AROUND BANGALORE HAMPERED WATER SUPPLY EARLIER
WITH BETTER VOLTAGE NOW, PUMPING EFFICIENCY HAS IMPROVED
400 KV STATION AT MYSORE BEING COMMISSIONED ON WAR FOOTING TO FURTHER FORTIFY THIS PART OF THE GRID
PUMPING LOSSES REDUCED
ENORMOUS SAVINGS TO THE STATE
MOTOR BURNING AND MAINTENANCE COSTS ALSO CAME DOWN DRASTICALLY
51
52
53
MERIT ORDER : UNITS BOXED UPMERIT ORDER : UNITS BOXED UPPOWER STATION STATE CAPACITY(MW) FUEL
VARIABLE COST
TATA DIESELKARNATAK
A 79 DIESEL 308
RAYALSEEMA DGPP
KARNATAKA 27 DIESEL 360
YELEHANKA DIESEL
KARNATAKA 128 DIESEL 314
THANRBHAVIKARNATAK
A 220 NAPTHA 325
SUB-TOTAL 454
BRAHAMPURAM DPP KERALA 107 DIESEL 275
BSES KERALA 157 NAPTHA 308
KASARGODE PCL KERALA 22 NAPTHA 298
KAYAMKULAM KERALA 360 NAPTHA 322
SUB-TOTAL 646
BASIN BRIDGETAMIL NADU 120 NAPTHA 584
P.P.NALLURTAMIL NADU 330 NAPTHA 415
SUB-TOTAL 450
TOTAL 1550
54
OPTIMAL RESERVOIR UTILISATIONOPTIMAL RESERVOIR UTILISATIONIDUKKI IN KERALAIDUKKI IN KERALA
KERALA SAVED RS 50 CRORES BY EFFICIENT UTILISATION OF THE RESERVOIRS AT IDUKKI!
POWERGRIDs 400 KV MADURAI-TRIVANDRUM LINE WILL HELP KERALA
SAVE EVEN MORE ENERGY IN THE COMING
YEAR
PLANT OPERATORS AT IDUKKI THINK OF THE RESERVOIR LEVEL IN RUPEES RATHER
THAN IN FEET!!!
Rs. Rs.
Rs.
Rs.
Rs.
Rs.Rs.
Rs.
Rs.
Rs.
Rs.
Rs.
Rs.
Rs.
Rs.Rs.
55
KADAMPARAI PUMP KADAMPARAI PUMP OPERATIONOPERATION
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
5000:
001:
002:
003:
004:
005:
006:
007:
008:
009:
0010
:00
11:0
012
:00
13:0
014
:00
15:0
016
:00
17:0
018
:00
19:0
020
:00
21:0
022
:00
23:0
00:
00
TIME ---->
IN M
W --
-->
48.50
49.00
49.50
50.00
50.50
51.00
FREQ
UENC
Y IN
HZ
---->
GENERATOR MODE
PUMP PUMP
SAVINGS OF RS 40 LAKHS EVERY DAY
INVESTMENT OF 1600 CRORES SAVED
56
HARNESSING DIVERSITYHARNESSING DIVERSITYAN EXAMPLE IN CENTRAL AN EXAMPLE IN CENTRAL
GRIDGRID
WESTERNREGION
NORTH-EASTERN REGION
EASTERN REGION
WESTERNREGION
NORTH-EASTERN REGION
EASTERN REGION
AT 1830 HRS
AT 2000 HRS
600 MW
1200 MW
EASTERN REGION HELPS
WESTERN REGION
WESTERN REGION HELPS
EASTERN REGION
57
ER TO WR FLOW: TYPICAL DAYHARNESSING DIVERSITY
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
0:00
1:00
2:00
3:00
4:00
5:00
6:00
7:00
8:00
9:00
10:0
0
11:0
0
12:0
0
13:0
0
14:0
0
15:0
0
16:0
0
17:0
0
18:0
0
19:0
0
20:0
0
21:0
0
22:0
0
23:0
0
HOUR
MW
58
59
DEVELOPMENT OF NATIONAL GRID
NER
ER
NR
WR
SR
EXISTING
500MW
MW1000
MW500
GAZUWAKA
CHANDRAPUR
VINDHYACHAL
SASARAM
UNDERCONST.
EXISTING
400 kV
220 kV
BONGAIGAONBIRPARA
MALDA
KORBA BUDHIPADAR
KOLHAPUR
BELGAUM
U.SILERU
BALIMELA
DEHRISAHUPURI
MALANPUR
AURAIYA
PHASE-I(By 2002)
HVDC STATION
KOLAR
(KARNATAKA)
TALCHER
ORISSA)
TALCHER KOLAR HVDC LINE
LENGTH:1400 KMS
60
TALCHER KOLAR LINKTALCHER KOLAR LINK ONE OF THE LONGEST HVDC LINES IN THE ONE OF THE LONGEST HVDC LINES IN THE
WORLDWORLD DESIGNED TO EVACUATE DESIGNED TO EVACUATE 2000 MW2000 MW COMMISSIONED IN ADVANCE TO UTILISE NON-COMMISSIONED IN ADVANCE TO UTILISE NON-
PEAK SURPLUS POWER OF EASTERN REGIONPEAK SURPLUS POWER OF EASTERN REGION COMMISSIONED 9 MONTHS AHEAD OF COMMISSIONED 9 MONTHS AHEAD OF
SCHEDULESCHEDULE COST INCURRED COST INCURRED Rs 3,100 CRORES Rs 3,100 CRORES AGAINST AGAINST
APPROVED COST OF APPROVED COST OF Rs 3,866 CRORESRs 3,866 CRORES:- SAVING OF :- SAVING OF NEARLY NEARLY 800 CRORE RUPEES800 CRORE RUPEES
THE PROJECT HAS USED THE PROJECT HAS USED APPROXIMATELY 90,000 TONNES OF APPROXIMATELY 90,000 TONNES OF STEEL AND 16,000 KM OF CABLES STEEL AND 16,000 KM OF CABLES
61
ULDC-THE ULDC-THE EYES AND EARSEYES AND EARS OF THE SYSTEM OF THE SYSTEM OPERATOROPERATOR
ALL CONSTITUENTS GET THE SAME DATA IN REAL ALL CONSTITUENTS GET THE SAME DATA IN REAL TIMETIME.. TRANSPARENCY.TRANSPARENCY. SYNERGY IN OPERATION.SYNERGY IN OPERATION.
QUANTUM LEAP IN VISIBILITY TO OPERATORQUANTUM LEAP IN VISIBILITY TO OPERATOR.. INCREASED CONFIDENCE.INCREASED CONFIDENCE. FOCUS ON SECURITY AND ECONOMY.FOCUS ON SECURITY AND ECONOMY. INCREASED SCOPE FOR TRANSACTIONS WITH OTHER INCREASED SCOPE FOR TRANSACTIONS WITH OTHER
REGIONSREGIONS
PREMPTIVE, DYNAMIC “EARLY WARNING” PREMPTIVE, DYNAMIC “EARLY WARNING” SYSTEMS.SYSTEMS.
GRID LESS VULNERABLE TO DISTURBANCES.GRID LESS VULNERABLE TO DISTURBANCES. ACCURATE AND EASY ANALYSIS OF GRID ACCURATE AND EASY ANALYSIS OF GRID
INCIDENTS INCIDENTS FASTER RESTORATION AFTER PERTURBATIONFASTER RESTORATION AFTER PERTURBATION COMPREHENSIVE ENERGY MANAGEMENT COMPREHENSIVE ENERGY MANAGEMENT
SYSTEM FUNCTIONS.SYSTEM FUNCTIONS.
PROJECT COST:Rs 6840 MILLION ----COMPLETED SIX MONTHS AHEAD
62
DEVELOPMENT OF NATIONAL GRID
NER
ER
NR
WR
SR
EXISTING
500MW
MW1000
MW500
GAZUWAKA
CHANDRAPUR
VINDHYACHAL
SASARAM
UNDERCONST.
EXISTING
400 kV
220 kV
BONGAIGAONBIRPARA
MALDA
KORBA BUDHIPADAR
KOLHAPUR
BELGAUM
U.SILERU
BALIMELA
DEHRISAHUPURI
MALANPUR
AURAIYA
PHASE-I(By 2002)
HVDC STATION
KOLAR
(KARNATAKA)
TALCHER
ORISSA)
SASARAM PROJECT
RAIPUR-ROURKELA
63
Generation PLF (Thermal) ER
UtilityUtility 2002-032002-03
% PLF% PLF2003-042003-04
% PLF% PLF% %
increaseincrease
DVCDVC 3939 4444 1212
OrissaOrissa 6464 7575 1717
WBPDCLWBPDCL 5555 5656 22
CESCCESC 6868 7272 55
DPLDPL 4040 5656 4141
NTPCNTPC 6868 7676 1212
RegionRegion 5252 5656 88
64
Generation Performance ERGeneration Performance ER
UtilityUtility 2002-032002-03
(MU)(MU)2003-042003-04
(MU)(MU)% %
increaseincrease
OrissaOrissa 93889388 1310713107 39%39%West West
BengalBengal2606226062 2835728357 8%8%
DVCDVC 89398939 98459845 10%10%NTPCNTPC 2045820458 2263522635 11%11%
Region (TH)Region (TH) 5984159841 6463764637 8%8%Region(HydRegion(Hyd
))46574657 74137413 59%59%
Region( TotRegion( Tot))
6450664506 7205672056 11%11%
65
HOW DID THE LOSSES GET HOW DID THE LOSSES GET REDUCED IN THE SOUTHERN REDUCED IN THE SOUTHERN
REGION?REGION? VOLTAGE IMPROVEMENT IS THE MAIN VOLTAGE IMPROVEMENT IS THE MAIN
REASONREASON POWER = VOLTAGE X CURRENTPOWER = VOLTAGE X CURRENT
LOSS LOSS ≈ CURRENT≈ CURRENT22
FOR EXAMPLE FOR EXAMPLE 440 W = 220 VOLTS X 2 AMPS440 W = 220 VOLTS X 2 AMPS LOSS LOSS ≈ 4 WATTS≈ 4 WATTS 440 W = 160 VOLTS X 2.75 AMPS 440 W = 160 VOLTS X 2.75 AMPS ( AT REDUCED ( AT REDUCED
VOLTAGE)VOLTAGE)
LOSS LOSS ≈ 7.6 WATTS ( NEARLY DOUBLE!)≈ 7.6 WATTS ( NEARLY DOUBLE!)
66
765 KV RING MAIN SYSTEM
THE POWER ‘HIGHWAY’
CHEAP HYDRO POWER FROM THE NORTH-EAST AND PIT
HEAD THERMAL POWER FROM THE EAST ENTERS THE RING AND EXITS TO POWER
STARVED REGIONS
67
MAJOR AND MINOR DISTURBANCES SINCE MAJOR AND MINOR DISTURBANCES SINCE 19941994
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10N
UM
BE
R O
F D
IST
UR
BA
NC
ES
---
----
->
1994
-95
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-00
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
YEAR ->
MAJOR MINOR
NO DISTURBANCES DESPITE LOSING NO DISTURBANCES DESPITE LOSING ENTIRE SUPER GENERATING PLANTS LIKEENTIRE SUPER GENERATING PLANTS LIKE
RAMAGUNDAM,VIJAYAWADA,KOTHAGUDEM, NORTH RAMAGUNDAM,VIJAYAWADA,KOTHAGUDEM, NORTH CHENNAI, SHARAVATHY ETCCHENNAI, SHARAVATHY ETC
68
69
DEEP VALLEY
DEEP VALLEY
SHARP
PEAK
