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1
04/19/23
Science and Technology Infusion Plan
forNumerical Prediction
Science and Technology Infusion Plan
forNumerical Prediction
NWS S&T CommitteeSeptember 17, 2002
NWS S&T CommitteeSeptember 17, 2002
Jeff McQueen
2
04/19/23
OutlineOutline
• Team Composition
• Vision
• Key Service Gaps
• Key NP Solutions
• Outstanding R&D Needs
• Infusion Strategy
• Summary
• Team Composition
• Vision
• Key Service Gaps
• Key NP Solutions
• Outstanding R&D Needs
• Infusion Strategy
• Summary
3
04/19/23
Numerical PredictionTeam Composition
Numerical PredictionTeam Composition
• Jeff McQueen – NWS/OST
• Paul Dallavalle – NWS/OST
• Steve Koch – OAR/FSL
• Ralph Petersen – NWS/NCEP
• Jeff McQueen – NWS/OST
• Paul Dallavalle – NWS/OST
• Steve Koch – OAR/FSL
• Ralph Petersen – NWS/NCEP
• Dave Stensrud – OAR/NSSL
• Stan Benjamin – OAR/FSL
• Michael Smith – NWS/OHD
• Dave Stensrud – OAR/NSSL
• Stan Benjamin – OAR/FSL
• Michael Smith – NWS/OHD
4
04/19/23
Increased Probabilistic Forecasts thru Ensembling & Postprocessing
Numerical Prediction
Improved Model Predictions:• Improved Initialization:
- Increased Use of Remote Sensed Data- Improved Small-Scale Data Assimilation
• More Realistic Physics:- Clouds, PBL, Radiation, Land & Water
Interactions
• Increased Resolution _
Vision
Common Model Framework
For Climate/Weather/Water
Drive Improved Applications- Aviation, Marine, Hydro, Tropical, AQ…
5
04/19/23
Numerical Prediction Pathway to Unified Common Model Framework
Numerical Prediction Pathway to Unified Common Model Framework
2002
2007 2012
Global/
Climate
2020
Ocean
Regional
Hydrologic
Hurricane
Hazards/AQ
GFS
ROFS
Eta
RUC
SFM
NOAH/AHPS
Hysplit
GFDL
Coupled atm-ocean
global model
Coupled(L/A/H/AQ)
WRF Framework
Unified fully coupled framework for
climate/weather/water
time
Deterministic &Probabilistic
Coupled Land-atm-ocean-ice
global model
Coupled(L/A/H/AQ)
WRF Framework
Deterministic &Probabilistic
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04/19/23
Numerical PredictionKey Service Gaps
Numerical PredictionKey Service Gaps
Linking Model Advances to Service Improvements
• Improve Forecasts of Mesoscale Phenomena:
– Severe Storm, Gravity Waves, Turbulence
– Precip Types, Cloud, Surface Properties
• Improve Confidence Levels and Range of Probabilities
• More Accurate Warm and Cool Season QPF
• Storm Track & Intensity Forecasts & Associated QPF
• Improve Week Two to Seasonal Range Forecasting
• Improved Forecasts of Global Ocean Conditions
• Implement Air Quality Forecasts
• Improve Forecasts of Mesoscale Phenomena:
– Severe Storm, Gravity Waves, Turbulence
– Precip Types, Cloud, Surface Properties
• Improve Confidence Levels and Range of Probabilities
• More Accurate Warm and Cool Season QPF
• Storm Track & Intensity Forecasts & Associated QPF
• Improve Week Two to Seasonal Range Forecasting
• Improved Forecasts of Global Ocean Conditions
• Implement Air Quality Forecasts
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04/19/23
Improved Confidence Levels and Range of Probabilities
More Accurate Mesoscale Phenomena Forecasts
Service Gap
Numerical PredictionKey Solutions
Numerical PredictionKey Solutions
Impact
• Provide a Range of Forecasts & Uncertainty
• Improved Forecasts Downstream of Data-Sparse Areas
• Advanced Ensembles (SREF;GFS)
• Targeted Obs Techniques• Ensemble PDFs, Neural Nets
• Improved Low-Level Wind Forecasts by 20%
• Improved Convection Forecasts by 15%
• Improved Cloud Properties (Icing, C&V..)
• Improved Visibility by 10%
• Improved QPF by 10%
• WRF(NA, HRW, RRW) , SREF• Advanced Data Assimilation• Remote Sensing Upgrades• Advanced Cloud Physics (WRF) • Improved Land Surface Models
(NOAH) & hydrologic coupling• Improved Observations into
Cloud Analyses & LDAS
Projected Solution
8
04/19/23
Numerical PredictionKey Solutions
Numerical PredictionKey Solutions
• Provide Consistent Guidance
• Support EPA Mission
• Implement IOC w/ Transition to Fully Coupled WRF-ChemImplement Air Quality
Forecasts
• Increased Accuracy of ENSO/SST Anomalies
• 100% Ocean/Lake Coverage
• Gulf stream position
• Upgrade Global Ocean Data Assimilation System(GODAS) Coupled Land/Ocean/Ice GFS
• Upgrade Wave Model (10 km) • Great Lakes System
Improve Forecasts of Global Ocean Conditions
• Improve Week Two to Seasonal Forecasts of Temp/Precip/Hazards
• GFS, Global Ensembles• Seasonal Forecast Model• Coupled Ocean/Atm/Land
Improve Long Range Forecasting
• 20% increase in Intensity• Marine: 20% Improvement
• Hurricane WRF DA/Model• North Amer. WRF, GFS, HRW• Ensembles/ Targeted obs
ImpactProjected SolutionService Gap
More Accurate Warm Season Precipitation
More Accurate Cool Season Precipitation
• North Amer. WRF, GFS• Ensembles/ Targeted obs
•R/S Resolved w/in 30km•Mtn QPF Resolved to
30km
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04/19/23
Numerical Prediction Key S&T Solutions
Numerical Prediction Key S&T Solutions
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1202
Deployment
Global, SREFProbabilistic
WRF SREF Multi-model*
Hydrologic
Hybrid veg/soil Distributed basin*
GFS T254Global
Coupled* ocean/atm/land
Common* Global-30/ Regional-3
Adv. Assim. * NPOESSRadar
Data Assimilation
Cloud/GODAS
Regional/AQWRF: NA-8, RR, HRWEta, RUC,HRW
cpld AQ WRF-4*Ozone
Physics
Existing cloud physics
Explicit cloud* & Adv physics Coupled AQ
DTE
R&D
OTE
Common* SFM/GFS
Climate Global Ocean Model
AHPS
SFM T62
Eta/GFS MOS Ensemble PDF Neural Nets
Super Computing 80x36x14x2x 9x
10
04/19/23
Numerical Prediction Outstanding R&D Needs
Numerical Prediction Outstanding R&D Needs
• Enhanced Methods to Assimilate Increasing Volume of Remote Sensed Data
• Develop Small-scale Assimilation Techniques and Deploy Obs Database
• Improve High Resolution Physics
• Improved Hydrological-Ocean-Atmosphere coupling
• Develop Mesoscale Verification Techniques
• Improved Methods to Convey Confidence Levels and Range of Probabilities
– Reduced Model Biases
– Merge Ensembles with High-Resolution Models
• Enhanced Methods to Assimilate Increasing Volume of Remote Sensed Data
• Develop Small-scale Assimilation Techniques and Deploy Obs Database
• Improve High Resolution Physics
• Improved Hydrological-Ocean-Atmosphere coupling
• Develop Mesoscale Verification Techniques
• Improved Methods to Convey Confidence Levels and Range of Probabilities
– Reduced Model Biases
– Merge Ensembles with High-Resolution Models
11
04/19/23
Numerical Prediction Infusion Strategy
Numerical Prediction Infusion Strategy
• Emphasize Partnerships– WRF; ESMF (NOAA, NCAR, FAA, AFWA, Navy, NASA,
Universities)
• Develop Common Architecture – Common Model/Data Assimilation Framework
• WRF, Radiative Transfer Models, ESMF
– Multi-disciplinary Coupled Codes • Atmosphere, Hydrologic, Ocean, AQ
– Teragrid Concept for Increased Data Nodes
• Implement Modeling Testbed– JCSDA– NOAA/NCAR DTC
• Emphasize Partnerships– WRF; ESMF (NOAA, NCAR, FAA, AFWA, Navy, NASA,
Universities)
• Develop Common Architecture – Common Model/Data Assimilation Framework
• WRF, Radiative Transfer Models, ESMF
– Multi-disciplinary Coupled Codes • Atmosphere, Hydrologic, Ocean, AQ
– Teragrid Concept for Increased Data Nodes
• Implement Modeling Testbed– JCSDA– NOAA/NCAR DTC
NWS
Aviation
CoastalMarine
Severe
Observations NWP
Climate
Satellite
Hurricane
Universities,Labs, OtherUniversities,Labs, Other
Universities,Labs, Other
Universities,Labs, Other
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04/19/23
Numerical PredictionTowards a Common Modeling Infrastructure
Numerical PredictionTowards a Common Modeling Infrastructure
• Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model
• State-of-the-Science, Common Infrastructure System
• Supporting Advanced Regional- to Local-Scale Research & Operational Forecasting
• More Effective and Timely Transition of Research into Operations
• Partners: NOAA, NCAR, USAF, USN, FAA
• Unified Global, Climate and Mesoscale Numerical Forecast System
• Improve Climate/Global/Weather predictions
• Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model
• State-of-the-Science, Common Infrastructure System
• Supporting Advanced Regional- to Local-Scale Research & Operational Forecasting
• More Effective and Timely Transition of Research into Operations
• Partners: NOAA, NCAR, USAF, USN, FAA
• Unified Global, Climate and Mesoscale Numerical Forecast System
• Improve Climate/Global/Weather predictions
13
04/19/23
Numerical Prediction WRF Framework Supports Deterministic &
Probabilistic Forecasts
Numerical Prediction WRF Framework Supports Deterministic &
Probabilistic Forecasts
WRF Core 2
(ESMF)
WRF Core 3
WRF Core 1
Data Assimilation
Initial Conditions
& Ensemble
Perturbations
Physics Options
Aviation Marine
Tropical Severe Storms
Winter Wx
Hydrologic Air
Quality Hazards
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04/19/23
Numerical Prediction Infusion Strategy: Testbed
Numerical Prediction Infusion Strategy: Testbed
DevelopmentalTest Centers
OperationalTest Centers
NCAR
OAR
NCEP
FNMOC
AFWA
Universities&
Labs
WRF Contributed
Code
WRF Reference
Code
WRF Operational
Code
NRL
15
04/19/23
Numerical Prediction Summary
Numerical Prediction Summary
2007 20122012
Incr
easi
ng
P
erfo
rman
ceIn
crea
sin
g
Per
form
ance
2020202020022002
R&D NeedsR&D Needs
• Assimilation of Increasing Volume of Assimilation of Increasing Volume of Remote Sensed DataRemote Sensed Data
• Small-scale Assimilation TechniquesSmall-scale Assimilation Techniques
• Improved Representation of Non-Improved Representation of Non-Hydrostatic Scale Physics Hydrostatic Scale Physics
• Probabilistic ApproachesProbabilistic Approaches
• Mesoscale Verification TechniquesMesoscale Verification Techniques
• Common Climate/ Global System
• More Realistic Cloud Physics
• Improve Use of Existing & New Observations
• WRF Framework
• Advanced Ensembling
• Cloud Analysis
• Adv. Small-scale Data Assimilation
• Adv. Physics/ Coupled AQ
Vision
Common Model Framework
For Climate/Weather/Water
Supporting NWS Service missions
16
04/19/23
Back UpsBack Ups• Roadmaps
• Resolution Time-Series
• Observational Needs
17
04/19/23
Data Assimilation RoadmapData Assimilation Roadmap2002 2003 2004 2005
EDAS/GDAS (3DVAR) RUC 3DVAR & Cloud
analysisimpr. background error covariances
G/EDAS Cloud analyses
GPS, Jason altimeter
5 additionalAll models
Rawinsonde Improved: AllAdaptive Obs Winter N. Pac
EDAS/RUC: Higher Res
EDAS:Mesonets, COOP
Improved:All
Real-time Greenness fraction
Soil moisture/snow cover
GDAS/EDAS/RUC via Cloud drift winds
GDAS/EDAS G/EDAS: higher res RUC
LDAS
Infrared Instruments
EDAS/GDASG/EDAS
NOAA/AMSU A-B GDAS/EDAS over land RUC over landDMSP/SSM/I GDAS/EDASNPP/ATMS
NPOESS/ATMS QUIKSCAT/Seawinds GDAS/EDAS
TRMM/PR GDAS/EDASNASA/GPM/DPR
EDAS/RUC: TPW
EDAS: 88D level 3 radial velocities
Upper Air
Data Assimilation
GFDL FDDA, Sat altimeter, insitu, MCSST & AVHRR SST, QUIKSCAT
SURFACE
NEXRAD
RADAR
Techniques
EDAS/RUC: Level 2 superobs
Ocean
ORDA
Dual Pole
Atmosphere
Water Vapor Sensor
Winds
Polar Orbiters Sounders
Microwave Instruments
T,V,RH, Pres, precip
Land sfc
GOES, EUMETSAT, JMA
Geostationary Sounders
METOP/IASINPOESS/CrIS
GPS Radio Occultation
MDCRS
SATELLITE
NOAA/AVHRRNPP/VIIRS
GOES (radiances, PW)
Polar Orbiter Imagers
NOAA/HIRS
Geostationary Imagers
GIFTS
AQUA/AIRSNPP/CrIS
18
04/19/23
Numerical Prediction RoadmapNumerical Prediction RoadmapNOAH-EDAS & RUC
land sfc hybrid coupling
NOAH-LDAS R-T greenness fraction
Uncoupled Global/SFM LDAS (obs precip)
2nd order closure
6 species microphysics
Bulk radiation
Eta/Global: Improved LW/microphysics effects
AGCM: T62L28/7mo/1x-mo, 21 mem ensemble
SFM: T62L28/7mo/1x-mo,
21 mem ensemble 1-way ocean 4DDA &
coupling
SFM:T126L42/7 mo/ 1x-mo, 21
Ensemble, 1-way ocean coupling
RSM: 32k ensemble for threats
Statistical downscaling Principle Compon. Anal. Neural Networks
Global
GFS: T170L42/384h/4xGFS:T254L64/384h/4x
Eta 12kL60/2x-84h/4x Eta 10kL65/84h/4x
20kL50/12h-8x/3h-16x18kL50/12h-8x/ 6h-
16x
NMM 8kL64/48h/1x WRF 8kL64/48h/1x4kL40/24h/1x 2 WFOs, LAPS-WRF 4kL40/24h/1x
LAPSHOT-WRF
20 km/48h/1x East coast testing
20 km/120 h/ East coast/ Gulf
Mex 20 km west coast
GFDL 18kL42/72h/4x coupled 2 nest/Atl
GFDL 18K L42/72h coupled 2 nest, GFS
Physics/Atl+Pac GFDL 15K L64/72h coupled 2 nest
WW III/0.25 deg/72hWW IIIM/15 mem ens/5 day/Global
& Regional
Hemispheric/25 km/72hRiver Forecasts Lumped conceptual -> Downscaling NWP
Flash Flood Site Specific--> Coupled hydro-QPF Coupled hydro-QPF 50 AHPS sitesSite Specific--> Distributed basin w/flash flood
Hydraulic 1-D unsteady flow
routing
Lumped conceptual: 22 km NA, 60 km Global, statistical climate
High Resolution Window (HRW)
Numerical Prediction
Atmospheric Physics
Climate
North American
Surface/Land
Boundary Layer
Clouds
Radiation
Statistical tools
Global Forecast System (GFS)
Coastal Ocean Forecast System (COFS)
Hurricane
Waves
Sea-ice
Ocean
Hydrologic
North American
RUC/RRW
HRW-NCEP
Local-scale
Global climate
Regional climate
20002 2004
19
04/19/23
Architecture Key S&T NP TimelineArchitecture
Key S&T NP Timeline
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1202
Deployment
OTE
DTE
R&D
GFS 95kL42 SREF 48kL50Probabilistic
Multi-model 70kL60 SREF 12kL64
Ocean
North America (4x/day)
Cpld 80kL64 Annual
AGCM 381k28L 7mo-1/mon
Climate (1/mon)SFM 95kL64
HRW (1x/day)
NMM 8kL64 48h/3 h
Global (4x/day)
GFS 55k64L384h/3h
GFS 45k64L 384h /1h Cpld 30kL100
RUC 20kL50/12hRRW (8x/day)
ROFS 20k/Atl 48h/ 24h
GFS 90kL42 SREF 18kL60
Eta 12k64L84h/3h
RRW 11kL60/12h RRW 8kL70/18h 12x
WRF 8k70L84h/1h
WRF 4k/100L96h/1h
WRF6kL70 48h/2 h
WRF 2k/100L 48h/1 h
ROFS 20k/glb 5 day Cpld 20k/glb 2 week
20
04/19/23
2003 2007 2012
Physics
Dta Assim
Regional
Global
Numerical Prediction AdvancesResolution and Ensemble Members
Numerical Prediction AdvancesResolution and Ensemble Members
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Ho
rizo
nta
l R
eso
luti
on
(km
)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
# En
semb
le Mem
bers
Global
Reg. Ens.
Regional
Reg. Ens. Mem
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Ho
rizo
nta
l R
eso
luti
on
(km
)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
# En
semb
le Mem
bers
Global
Reg. Ens.
Regional
Reg. Ens. Mem
21
04/19/23
Numerical Prediction AdvancesSupercomputing Increases
Numerical Prediction AdvancesSupercomputing Increases
FY03: 1408 1.3 Ghz SP Processors
22
04/19/23
Numerical PredictionKey Observational Gaps and S&T Solutions
Numerical PredictionKey Observational Gaps and S&T Solutions
Observational GAP
Projected Solution Expected Impact
Mesoscale wind thru troposphere
(highest res in PBL)
Better use of existing obs Enhanced ACARS/MDCRS
Space borne wind lidars, NPOESS
Upgrade NOAA profilers
Improved accuracy of short-term trop. Wind forecasts
Mesoscale moisture especially in PBL
WVSS-2/AMDAR upgrades
GPS IPW
Improved accuracy of short-term cloud, visibility, temperature forecasts
Improved observations in data sensitive areas
Targeted observations methods Improved winter/tropical
storm prediction
Improved cloud properties observations
Dual pole radars
88D superobs
GIFTS
Improved storm & cloud analysis and prediction
Improved land/water/ snow surface roperties
NPOESS
COOP modernizationImproved hydrologic & short term temperature forecasts
23
04/19/23
Ensemble ForecastsEnsemble Forecasts
Ensembles can provideinformation on the likelyrange of forecast parametersand forecast uncertainty to users
Mean value
Range
Ensemblespread canbe used to determinehow observationaldata influences neighboring regions indata assimilationschemes
24
04/19/23
Next-Generation Operational ModelsCloud-scale Modeling
(dx = dy = 2 km, dz = 500 m, dt = 12 s, 160 x 160 x 20 km domain )Surface temperature, surface winds and cloud field at 2 hours
Many Science and Technology Questions Remain
25
04/19/23Potential Cloud-scale model benefits
12-hour NWS12-hour NWSForecastForecast
(unable to(unable torepresentrepresentindividualindividual
thunderstorms)thunderstorms)
Moore, OKTornadic
Storm
2-Hour CAPS Computer Forecast Down to the Scale of Counties
NEXRAD Radar Observations
Moore, OKTornadic
Storm
26
04/19/23Numerical Prediction AdvancesDissemination Requirements
2007
Numerical Prediction AdvancesDissemination Requirements
2007
27
04/19/23Current Operational Forecast Models
Current Operational Forecast Models
Operational forecast models predict:• Mesoscale and synoptic flow patterns• Precipitation via parameterizations that are unable to resolve
individual storms
Important storm-scale weather cannot be resolved:
Operational forecast models predict:• Mesoscale and synoptic flow patterns• Precipitation via parameterizations that are unable to resolve
individual storms
Important storm-scale weather cannot be resolved:
USING THIS
TO ANTICIPATE THIS
28
04/19/23
Towards aCoupledModeling Systemwithdownscaling tohydrology models
SSTPREDICTION
GENERALCIRCULATION
LATERALB.C.
REGIONALCOUPLED
ATMOS-LANDMODEL
10 - 30 km
PRECIP, Ts,LAND-SFCFORCING
REGIONALUNCOUPLEDLAND-HYDRO
MODEL1-10 km
RUNOFFSNOWPACK
STREAMFLOWSOIL MOIST
GLOBALCOUPLED
ATMOS-LANDMODEL
30 - 100 km
GLOBALLAND4DDA
GLOBALATMOS4DDA
GLOBALOCEAN4DDA
REGIONALLAND4DDA
REGIONALATMOS4DDA
GLOBALCOUPLED
OCEAN-ATMOSLAND MODEL100 - 500 km
29
04/19/23