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© 2007 Ipsos Reid Public Affairs Privileged and confidential
Stalemate in Perpetual MotionWill They Stay or Will They Go?
2
Purpose
• For the moment, antics in the House of Commons are merely entertainment. Nonetheless, an election can always be triggered by a confluence of random events and general weirdness;
• Don’t be distracted by isolated events or short-term adjustments in momentum – the overall trends are consistent and enduring;
• Leaving aside shenanigans in the House, we will have an election only when it is seen to work to the advantage of the three opposition parties;
• Purpose today is to bring some rationality into the on-going, hysterical speculation about election timing;
• Scary thing to do given my first point!
3
What’s a Win? (Tories)
• In the short-term, the only “win” for the Tories is a majority (will take at least 41%);
•The closer we get to the Fall of ’09, a minority win will start looking “acceptable.”
4
What’s a Win? (Grits)
• Win a majority;
• Win a minority;
• Lose a very narrow minority to the Tories and it’s clear the government won’t last.
5
What’s a Win? (NDP)
• Significantly increase seats over ’06 (little win);
• Significantly increase seats over ’06, and hold the balance of power (big win).
6
What’s a Win? (BQ)
• Increase seats over ’06;
• Increase seats over ’06, and hold the balance of power;
• Win the plurality of seats in Quebec.
7
What’s a Win? (Green)
•Get into Leaders’ debate;
•Win 1 seat.
8
Reality Check
• In the short-term, the Conservatives will have the hardest time meeting their winning conditions. Little incentive to trigger an election;
• The Liberals have more incentive to cause an election, because their winning conditions are much easier to meet;
• The NDP can only meet their winning conditions if the Liberals slide. So, little incentive to trigger a Grit-driven election;
• The BQ has the easiest time meeting its winning conditions – will jump on board a bandwagon, but can’t start a parade.
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Do Canadians want an election?
39%
Politics in Ottawahas become
dysfunctional andwe need an
election now toclear the air
There's a lot ofimportant work
that still needs tobe done by thegovernment, so
the spring isearliest we should
be holding anelection
27%We really needan election toclear the air
There's no needfor an electionat the moment
November 2005 March 2008
57% 66%
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Overview
Policies &Issues
Leadership
Political Environment
Desire for Election
HOUSE OF COMMONS
THE ELECTORATE
11
Policies and Issues
12
22%
28%
21%
9%
16%
4%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
J ul'91 J ul'92 J ul'93 J ul-94 J ul'95 J ul'96 J ul'97 J ul'98 J ul'99 J ul'00 J ul'01 J ul'02 J un'03 J ul'04 J ul'05 J ul'06 Oct'06Nov'06 J an'07Mar'07Oct'07Dec'07Feb'08
Environment/Kyoto HealthcareEducation Economy (general)Taxes/Tax reform/GST Terrorism/National SecurityArmed Forces/Military International War/Conflict
Thinking of the issues presently confronting Canada , which one do you feel should receive the greatest attention from Canada's leaders? (Open-Ended)
Top Canadian Issues
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Economy
14
Trigger?
•Which party has the advantage in an economic downturn?
15
The State of the Canadian Economy
78%
87838180
73
81
75
66
7476
70
77
7269
73
65
818177
74
65
4944
41
7678
85%
Jul 94 May95
Jul 96 May97
May98
May99
Jul 00 Jan01
Oct01
May02
Nov02
Feb03
Apr03
Aug03
Nov03
Feb04
May04
Sep04
Nov04
Feb05
May05
Sep05
Feb06
Nov06
Apr07
Aug07
Jan08
Feb08
(Percentage of respondents who describe current Canadian economy as “good”)
In terms of the current economic conditions in this country as a whole, how would you describe the overall state of the Canadian economy right now?
This was the week the TSX lost massive ground and banks posted big losses
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The State of the Economy cont…
33%
52%
15%Say they're worse offthan 2 years ago
Say they're about thesame as 2 years ago
Say they're better offthan 2 years ago
17
Canadian Job Anxiety
26
35
32
25
2119
2122
1918
17 1716
1516 16
14
17 17
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 1993 1995 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Feb05
May05
Sep05
Feb06
Nov06
Apr07
Aug07
Jan08
Feb08
(Perc
enta
ge o
f re
spondents
)
All Canadians
And, are you, or is anyone in your household worried about losing their job or being laid off? Base: All respondents N=1005
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The Economy Going Forward
11%
63%
24%
17%
65%
25%
13%
64%
22%
Enter into a recession
Slow down but continueto have some growth
Continue to grow asstrongly as it has in
recent years
Jan 8-10 Jan 22-24 Feb 22-24
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Canadian Opinions on the Economy
40%
16%
13%
39%
46%
27%
45%
45%
8%
29%
25%
10%
5%
26%
5%
13%
Even if the economy takes a hit, I'll beable to weather the storm
The recent decline on the stock marketis having a negative impact on me or my
immediate family
Canada's economy is healthy, and sowe will avoid any major economic
downturn in the near future
The Canadian economy is dependant onthe U.S. economy. If the American
economy suffers, so too does Canada'seconomy
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree
Thinking about the possibility of an economic slowdown here in Canada, to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements Base: All respondents N=1001
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How Canadians View a Federal Government Deficit
19%
26%
47%
6%
Very acceptable Somewhat acceptable Not really acceptable Not at all acceptable
How acceptable would it be for the government to run a deficit if there was a downturn in the economy?
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How Much Credit/Blame Should Tories Get For Economic Conditions of Last Two Years?
7%
22%
51%
16%
A lot Some Not Much None at all
Thinking overall about the role that the national government plays in managing or stimulating the economy, how much credit or blame should he Conservative government be given for Canada's economic conditions over the last two years?
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Who Can Best Manage the Economy?
45%
26%
16%
14%Don't Know
Jack Layton: NDP
Stephane Dion: Liberals
Stephen Harper:Conservatives
Of the three main federal parties, who do you have the most confidence in to best manage the national economy?
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Afghanistan
24
National Support for the Combat role in Afghanistan
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan/Feb 06 Mar 06 Jul 06 Sept/Oct 06 Apr 07 Jul 07 Aug 07 Jan 08
(Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
res
po
nd
en
ts)
25
The Future of Afghanistan
4%
14%
37%
45%
2%
14%
44%
40%
Don't Know/Refused
Extend our current role and mission asrequired
Bring all the troops home
Keep troops there but have them do somethinglike train Afghani soldiers or police officers
Oct-07 Jan-08
On Canada’s mission to Afghanistan, in 2009, when our military mission is supposed to finish, which of the following would you be most likely to support? The government should either…
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Canadians’ Assessment of the Manley Plan
7%
22%
36%
29%
6%
Great Plan Good Plan Fair Plan Bad Plan Don'tknow/Refused
As you may know, a panel investigating the future of Canada's Armed Forces in Afghanistan has released its recommendations this week. The panel is recommending that Canada gradually shift its focus to a less combative role after February of 2009, provided that 1,000 additional troops be deployed to Afghanistan by Canada's allies, and that Canada receives new medium-lift helicopters and other aircraft to assist with the job. If these conditions are not met, the panel says that Canada should no longer be responsible for security in the Kandahar region of Afghanistan. Based on what you have seen, read or heard about the panel's recommendations, do you think that this is a great plan, good plan, fair plan, or bad plan for the future of Canada's troops in Afghanistan?
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Leadership
28
Overall impressions of the leaders
13%
5%
2%
11%
51%
52%
33%
52%
24%
25%
39%
21%
10%
10%
16%
13%
Great Good Poor BadStephan Harper - Conservatives
Stephane Dion - Liberals
Jack Layton - NDP
Gilles Duceppe - Bloc
Of the following, how would you rate the leadership qualities and skills that each of the federal leaders possesses?
29
Harper vs. Dion
If you had a choice between only voting for Stephen Harper and Stephane Dion in an election, who would you most likely vote for?
56%
35%
9%
Stephen Harper Stephane Dion Don't know
30
Will or could vote for Will never vote for
Stephen Harper Jack Layton Stephane Dion
Would Vote – or Never Vote
31
The Leaders – The Good, The Bad and the UglySomeone you can trust 39%(Layton 31%, Dion 25%)
Someone who will get things done 48%(Dion 24%, Layton 23%)
Someone who has what it takes to lead Canada 46%(Dion 26%, Layton 25%)
Someone who has vision of Canada that you can support 40%(Layton 29%, Dion 27%)
Someone who has values that are close to your own 37%(Layton 32%, Dion 24%)
Someone who has a hidden agenda 44%(Dion 34%, Layton 20%)
Someone who will fight for what they believe is right even if most people disagree with them 41%(Layton 35%, Dion 22%)
Someone who knows when to compromise for the greater good 38%(Layton 33%, Dion 25%)
Someone who is conceited and full of themselves 45%(Dion 29%, Layton 22%)
Someone who will say anything to get elected 39%(Dion 37%, Layton 21%)
Someone who is sincerely committed to dealing with Global warming 39%(Harper 28%, Dion 27%)
Someone who is open to the ideas of others 36%(Harper 32%, Dion 26%)
32
Vote Support
33
CanWest News Service/Global News Ipsos Reid Survey, Mar 4-Mar 6, 2008. Decided voters including leaners (867).
29%
13%
9% 9%10%
36% 35%
37%37%
33%35%35%
39%39%
40%40%
34%
32%
31%
36%
33%
36%
34%
40% 39%42%
31%30%29%
35%33%
29%29%
28%27%
28%32%31%
32%34%
37%36%
30%29% 29%
28%
15%
14%14%13%
15%16%
15%15%
13%14%
16%17%16%17%16%
14%13%13%13%
17%
9%9%9%
8%
10%
7%8%9%8%8%
10%
8%
9%9%9%
9%10%
11%12%
10%10%
9%8%
9%8%
7%8%7%
8%9%
9%
7%8%8%
5%5%5% 7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
8% of all Canadian adults (n=1001) are undecided
Federal Vote SupportMarch 7, 2008, percentage of decided voters
34
Federal Voting Intentions 4-Week Rollup
1%
9%
10%
14%
30%
36%
Other
Bloc Quebecois
Green Party
NDP
Liberals
Conservative
Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties’ candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support? Base: Decided Voters – Leaners Included N=3358
Field Dates
Wave 1: Jan 22 – 24
Wave 2: Feb 13 – 14
Wave 3: Feb 22 – 24
Wave 4: March 4 - 6
Canada
N=3358 +/- 1.69 %
British Columbia N=437 +/- 4.69%
Alberta N=353 +/- 5.22%
Saskatchewan/Manitoba N=211 +/- 675%
Ontario N=1276 +/- 2.74%
Quebec N=857 +/- 3.35%
Atlantic N=224 +/- 6.55%
35
Key Demographics
36
The West vs. The East
BC Alberta Sask./
Manitoba
Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Conservative 41% 64% 44% 35% 23% 33%
Liberal 26% 18% 29% 36% 24% 44%
NDP 19% 10% 19% 15% 11% 15%
Green 11% 8% 8% 13% 7% 7%
Bloc Quebecois - - - - 35% -
% Vote in each Region
37
Battleground Ontario
38%41%
33%
30%
40%
36%
18%
7%
16%14%
11%13%
1% 1% 2%
Liberal Conservative NDP Green Other
416 905 Other Ontario
Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support? Base: Decided Voters – Leaners Included 416 N=236, 905 N=254, Other Ontario N=765
38
Montreal vs. the Rest of Quebec
18%
30%
26%
21%
13%
8%
36%34%
8%6%
Conservative Liberal NDP Bloc Green
Montreal Other Quebec
Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support? Base: Decided Voters – Leaners Included Montreal N=474, Other Quebec N=383
39
Vancouver vs. Other BC
41%42%
27% 26%
21%
17%
8%
14%
4%1%
Conservative Liberal NDP Green Other
Vancouver Other BC
Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support? Base: Decided Voters – Leaners Included Vancouver N=213, Other BC N=224
40
Alberta vs. Saskatchewan/Manitoba
64%
44%
18%
29%
10%
19%
8% 8%
1%
Conservative Liberal NDP Green Other
Alberta Saskatchewan/Manitoba
Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support? Base: Decided Voters – Leaners Included Alberta N=353, Saskatchewan/Manitoba N=211
41
The Gender Gap
41%
32%
27%
33%
12%
16%
9% 8%9%
11%
2% 1%
Conservative Liberal NDP Bloc Green Other
Male Female
Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support? Base: Decided Voters – Leaners Included Male N=1679 Female N=1679
42
Focus on Women: By Age
21%
34%
39%
31%32%
35%
20%
16%
13%
10%9%
6%
18%
9%
6%
1%
Conservative Liberal NDP Bloc Green Other
18-34 35-54 55+
Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support? Base: Decided Voters – Leaners Included Women 18-34 N=375, Women 35-54 N=734, Women 55+ N=563
43
Focus on Women: By Income
28% 28%
35%34% 33%
31%
18%16% 16%
9%11%
8%
10%11%
10%
1% 1%
Conservative Liberal NDP Bloc Green Other
Less than 30K 30K-60K Over 60K
Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support? Base: Decided Voters – Leaners Included Women Less than 30K N=283, Women 30-60K N=493, Women 60+K N=675
44
Focus on Women: By Urban/Rural
30%
38%
34%
28%
17%
12%
9%8%
10%
13%
1%
Conservative Liberal NDP Bloc Green Other
Urban Rural
Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support? Base: Decided Voters – Leaners Included Women, Urban N=1659 Women, Rural N=320
45
Political Support by Age
27%
38%
43%
28%29%
32%
17%
14%12%
11%9%
7%
15%
9%
6%
2% 1% 1%
Conservative Liberal NDP Bloc Green Other
18-34 35-54 55+
Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support? Base: Decided Voters – Leaners Included 18-34 N=728, 35-54 N=1482, 55+ N=1134
46
The Elusive Majority
47
Where they are now…23 seats shy
2004 2006 Projected 2008
Seats % of Seats
% of Votes
Seats % of Seats
% of Votes
Seats % of Seats
% of Votes
Conservative
99
32.14%
29.60%
124
40.26%
36.27%
132
42.86%
36%
Liberal
135
43.83%
36.70%
103
33.44%
30.23%
107
34.75%
30%
NDP
19
6.17%
15.70%
29
9.42%
17.48%
25
8.10%
14%
Green
0%
0%
4.30%
0%
0%
4.48%
0%
0%
9.80%
Bloc
54
17.53%
12.40%
51
16.56%
10.48%
43
13.96%
9%
*Seat projections in collaboration with Dr. Barry Kay, Wilfrid Laurier University
48
At 41%, seat projection analysis produces a thin majority…
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Bloc
Other
Atlantic
9
20 3 - -
Quebec
13 16 1 45 1
Ontario
64 32 10 - -
Sask/Man
20 8 3 - -
Alberta
28 - - - -
BC
25 5 6 - -
TOTAL
159 81 23 45
*Seat projections in collaboration with Dr. Barry Kay, Wilfrid Laurier University
49
But only if in the right regions
TOTAL
BC ALB SK/MN ONT QUE ATL 416 905
OTHER ONT
MNTRL
OTHER QC VAN
OTHER BC
Conservative
41%
44%
66%
47%
42%
28%
35%
36%
48%
42%
22%
36%
43%
45%
Liberal
26%
25%
16%
26%
30%
18%
42%
32%
34%
28%
20%
16%
26%
25%
NDP
14%
17%
8%
18%
16%
11%
15%
20%
8%
18%
13%
8%
19%
15%
Bloc
9% -
-
-
-
35%
-
-
-
-
36%
34%
-
-
Green
9%
11%
9%
8%
10%
8%
7%
11%
9%
10%
9%
6%
8%
14%
Other
1%
3%
1%
1%
1%
0
1%
1%
0
2%
0
0
4%
1%
*Seat projections in collaboration with Dr. Barry Kay, Wilfrid Laurier University
50
A Tory Majority Needs…
• Liberal/Tory switchers in Ontario (especially the 905), have to switch and stick this time. Tories need a ballot question that forces this to happen. Micro-targeting won’t create a big enough wave;
• Key to victory will be suburban, middle class, middle-aged women in Ontario;
• Tories not yet achieving enough in Quebec to offset Grit strength in Ontario;
• Tories likely to lose seats in Atlantic Canada, offset by some gains in the West.
51
Conclusion
52
Will We Have an Election in 2008?
• Apart from an accidental trigger, or completely unforeseen event, the answer is NO. It is a stalemate in perpetual motion;
• Tories too far away from a majority to want an election. Math is very, very difficult;
• Grits may say they want an election, but lack momentum, an issue, and leadership advantage;
• NDP running below the last election, and Grits are now stronger than in ’06;
• Bloc content to join a bandwagon, but can’t lead a parade;
• And, Canadians REALLY don’t want an election.
53
Thanks – Merci – GrazieArigato – Gracias – Thenk Ye
Cam on – Kiitos – Terima KasihTak – Mahalo – Danke
M goi nei sinXie xie
© 2007 Ipsos Reid Public Affairs Privileged and confidential
