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Side Event on Extreme GeohazardsIntroduction to the Session

Hans-Peter Plag, Mitigation and Adaptation Research Institute, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, USA

Goal of Side EventEngage the GEORisk 2014 Participants in a discussion aboutthe question of how prepared are we for extreme high-risk

(geo)hazards?- How well do we know the extreme hazard spectrum?

- Do we have the data to detect a looming extreme hazard?- Do we have the processes to assess global threats and risks and the

governance to prepare for extreme hazards?

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Program of Side EventHans-Peter Plag: Introduction to the SessionPaola Campus: Geohazards, Monitoring Networks, and SynergiesSierd Cloetingh: Topo-Europe: An Integrated Solid Earth Approach to Continental Topography and Deep Earth-Surface Processes in 4D Deborah Brosnan: Facilitating a Paradigm Shift in Strategic Science for Extreme Geohazards Policies and Decisions

Panel Discussion: The Risk of Extreme Geohazards: How Prepared is a Globally Interdependent Society?

Panel Members: Deborah Brosnan, Paola Campus, Sierd Cloetingh, Alik Ismail-Zadeck, Hans-Peter Plag

Questions to Panel Members: - To what extent do you see extreme geohazards as a potential cause for major and global disasters or catastrophes that we should be prepared for? - What do you consider as the main vulnerability of our global society with respect to extreme geohazards? - What are the main steps (research, governance, societal processes) we could do, and should take, to reduce the risk associated with extreme geohazards?

Brief statements from Panel Members and then open discussion with audience

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Extreme Events:• Extinction Level Events: more than a quarter of all life on Earth is killed and major species extinction takes place.• Global Catastrophes: more than a quarter of the world human population dies and that place civilization in serious risk.• Global Disasters: global-scale events in which a few percent of the population die. • Major Disasters: disasters exceeding $100 Billion in damage and/or causing more than 10,000 fatalities. Modified from Hempsell (2004)

INTRODUCTION: Terminology

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White Paper

Declaration on Extreme Geohazards and the Reduction of Disaster Risks

Resulted in two main activities:- Global Geohazards Information System for Disaster Risk Reduction (GGIS-DRR)- White Paper on Extreme Geohazards

1 Introduction2 Global Disasters and Catastrophes3 Extreme geohazards4 Disaster Risk, Resilience, Antifragility, and Adaptive Capacity5 Cost/Benefit Analysis of Planning for Extreme Geohazards6 Confronting Disaster Risks for Extreme Geohazards7 Conclusions and Recommendations Acronyms References

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Tambora, 1815

Changbai, ~970Santorini, ~1610 BC

Crater Lake, ~5680 BC

Kurile, ~5550 BC

Kikai, 2350 BCTaupo, 230

12 Billion by 2100

Population Growth Offsets DRR Efforts

VEI 7 Eruptions

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GEOHAZARDS: The Big PictureOther potential X-Events (see, e.g., John Casti, 2012):• Pandemics: Black Death killed 30-60% of the population in impacted areas• Despots: Genghis Khan eliminated 11.1% of global population• Solar Storms: could take out major parts of the power grids• Loss of Internet: Could have extreme societal and economic consequences• ...

Conclusions and Recommendations

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Steps towards risk reduction and increased resilience:

(1) Risk assessment and risk awareness:- Frequent review of global risk knowledge with IPCC-like process

The largest volcano eruptions of the Holocene (1 in 1000 years events): - today would threaten an already stressed food security- challenge the crucial global transportation network - could easily lead to a global catastrophe.

Chance of a major eruption (order VEI 7, 100 km3) in the 21st century: 5-10%:- severe implications for food security, public health, transportation, global economy and stability.

(2) Early Warning (EW):- core element: elaborate, comprehensive volcano observation system;- cost-benefit analysis: should be willing to spend > $1 B/year;- Group on Earth Observations’ (GEO) Geohazards Community of Practice is reviewing observation requirements

(3) Response to Early Warning: - dedicate research to understand societal response to EWs on time scales of years also important for EWs of abrupt climate change impacts

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It’s not the hazard that causes the disaster, it’s the process triggered by the hazard that leads from hazard to disaster

Post-Hyogo Framework of Action

Specific Post-2015 Actions:- Improve monitoring that could provide early warning for emerging global risks- Establish an International/Intergovernmental Panel for Global Risk (IPGR)- Develop a convention/body for global risks to act before the hazard

Conclusions and Recommendations

Integrate (general) Resilience and Disaster Risk Reduction ==> RDRR

Is there something else we are overlooking?

Contribution:- Understanding that we need to account for low-probability high-impact events- Focus on improved global general resilience

Being out of scale Scaling law for metabolic rate: Y = Y0 * M(3/4)

human: Y = 50 -100 Watt

Energy consumption per capita:Global Average: YE = 2,735 WattM = 10 metric tons

Extended metabolic rate: YE = Y + CE (CE: total energy consumption)

Metabolic Rate

Mass

Worst case: YE = 22,000 WattM = 170 metric tons

Humanity has an extended metabolic rate equivalent to 14 Billion elephants(2.7 Billion for the U.S. alone)

14 Billion interdependent elephants: A heavy “load’ for Earth complicated to govern

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Program of Side EventHans-Peter Plag: Introduction to the SessionPaola Campus: Geohazards, Monitoring Networks, and SynergiesSierd Cloetingh: Topo-Europe: An Integrated Solid Earth Approach to Continental Topography and Deep Earth-Surface Processes in 4D Deborah Brosnan: Facilitating a Paradigm Shift in Strategic Science for Extreme Geohazards Policies and Decisions

Panel Discussion: The Risk of Extreme Geohazards: How Prepared is a Globally Interdependent Society?

Panel Members: Deborah Brosnan, Paola Campus, Sierd Cloetingh, Alik Ismail-Zadeck, Hans-Peter Plag

Questions to Panel Members: - To what extent do you see extreme geohazards as a potential cause for major and global disasters or catastrophes that we should be prepared for? - What do you consider as the main vulnerability of our global society with respect to extreme geohazards? - What are the main steps (research, governance, societal processes) we could do, and should take, to reduce the risk associated with extreme geohazards?

Brief statements from Panel Members and then open discussion with audience

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