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12-a.What is Sustainability & How Does it

Relate to Natural Resource Management?

Larry D. Sanders

(SPRING 2002)

Dept. of Ag Economics Oklahoma State University

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INTRODUCTION(ch. 11-12 Hackett)

Purpose: – to become aware of the concept of sustainability &

long term thinking Learning Objectives. To understand/become

aware of:1. The concept of sustainability with respect to agriculture.

2. The concept of sustainability with respect to poor developing countries & the global system

3. The importance of long term thinking to avoid possibly irreversible or very costly damage & loss of life

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Imperatives for Sustainable Systems

Economy (efficiency)

Individual/ Community (cohesion)

Environment (maintain/ enhance)

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Sustainability:

Normative standard/social goal Vision of the future Iroquois Confederation (7 generations) More inclusive/comprehensive view of

economic development/well-being Whatever it takes to maintain the lives &

livelihoods of people in the system

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Sustainable Agriculture, as an example:

“An integrated system of plant & animal production practices having a site specific application that will, over the long term: satisfy human food & fiber needs; enhance environmental quality & the natural resource base upon which the agricultural economy depends; make the most efficient use of nonrenewable resources and on-farm resources and integrate, where appropriate, natural biological cycles & controls; sustain the economic viability of farm farm operation; and enhance the quality of life for farmers and society as a whole.”

--The Food, Agriculture, Conservation, & Trade Act of 1990

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“5 Capitals” of Viederman:

1.Nature’s Capital: the flow of natural resources & cycling of waste (& life-sustaining ecosystem)

2.Human Capital: people using knowledge/skills to function

3.Human-created Capital: technology & productive facilities

4.Social Capital: networks of civic institutions & norms

5.Cultural Capital: myths/stories/visions shared by people

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Sustainability as an Ethical Standard

Individualism vs. interdependence Need buy-in by key participants Crosses disciplines Concept of “multifunctionality” for

sustaining farms

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Energy Trends--Sustainable?(1990-2000 annual growth rates)

Wind Power (22%) Solar (16%) Geothermal (4%) Oil Production (2%) Hydro Power (2%) Nuclear Power (1%) Coal (0%) 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1950

1970

1990

WORLDOIL PRO-DUCTION(mil.bls)

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10

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The Physics of Energy--Sustainability difficult to maintain

Energy: the capacity for doing work The First Law of Thermodynamics: the energy of

the universe remains constant (nothing is destroyed; also known as the Law of Conservation of Matter & Energy)

The Second Law of Thermodynamics: entropy always moves toward a maximum (energy moves from order to disorder; also known as the Law of Energy Degradation)

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Entropy & Energy Economics

Gross vs. Net Energy Economic Reserves Exponential Growth Irreversibility Externalities

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Exponential Growth: the 29th Day

“A French riddle for children illustrates another aspect of exponential growth--the apparent suddenness with which it approaches a fixed limit. Suppose you own a pond on which a water lily is growing. The lily plant doubles in size each day. If the lily were allowed to grow unchecked, it would completely cover the pond in 30 days, choking off other forms of life in the water. For a long time the lily plant seems small, & so you decide not to worry about cutting it back until it covers half the pond. On what day will that be? On the 29th day, of course. You have one day to save your pond.” (D. Meadows et al, 1972)

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Exponential Growth & Doubling Time

Growth Rate (%) Doubling Time (yrs)

0.1 700

0.5 140

1.0 70

4.0 18

7.0 10

10.0 7

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Energy Reserves--Past Predictions

Meadows et al estimates of selected nonrenewable resource reserves, static vs. exponential (1972):

– Natural Gas--38-22 years

– Petroleum--31-20 years

– Coal--2300-111 years What did Meadows overlook or

underestimate?

time1992 1994 2083

OILNATURAL GAS

COAL

Reserves

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Energy--Policy & Environment to achieve sustainability National Energy Strategy How to achieve

MSC = MSB?

– Market Pollution Permits

– Per unit Pollution Taxes

– Liability & Bonding Systems for Large Stationary Polluters

– Fuel Taxes, Options & Impacts

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Energy--Transition to Future Fuels for Sustainability

Transition– Increasing costs– Alternative Fuel &/or New

Technology Policy Options

– Research & Development– Regulation– Tax– Market Incentives

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Agrarian Evolution & Long Term Thinking

Process of agricultural evolution has led to a small percentage of large farms producing most of sales in US– displaced farm labor has moved into non-ag sector

either in rural communities becoming more diversified or moving to urban areas

Agricultural evolution in developing countries more rapid, more disruptive, more destructive & harmful – 40-50% world population lives in urban slums

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Urban/environmental pressures increasing

Low-income countries face water shortages, water pollution, air pollution, minimal shelter shortages, transportation stresses

Industrialization that is needed to uplift economies will result in greater stresses on environment & natural resource base

1.2-1.3 billion in absolute poverty 2/3 of world population live on less than $2/day

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“Market Myopia”?

Biased w/short term perspective Discount rates favor present & devalue long

term Tend to under-value cultural/social costs

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World Hunger

AREA POPULATION FOOD ASIA 40% 15% AFRICA 10% 5% L. AMERICA 10% 10% EUROPE 25% 45% N. AMERICA 10% 25% OTHER 5% 1%

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World Hunger (cont.)

Each minute 28 humans die from hunger & malnutrition – 21 are children– Equals a “Hiroshima” every 3 days

Chronic Malnutrition: 10% of World Population

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World Hunger (cont.) 2 x Deaths in All Wars Past

150 yrs = Hunger Deaths in Past 5 yrs

250,000 infants/small childrean die each week from diet-related, “easily” preventable diseases

Thousands more--diet-related blindness & physical & mental retardation

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HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH, ESTIMATED & PROJECTED (3 Million BC-2036)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

MIL

LIO

N H

UM

AN

S

YEAR

8000 BC 5-10 MIL.

5000 BC 20 MIL

3000 BC 50 MIL.

1400 BC 100 MIL.

0 200 MIL.

1200 400 MIL.

1700 800 MIL.

1900 1.5 BIL.

1960 3 BIL.

1996 6 BIL.

2036-50 11-12 BIL???

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World Hunger (cont.)

Not a food production problem Economics--poverty--is the problem

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World Hunger (cont.)

Economic development is the key Education is the foundation for economic

development But . . .

– What is the carrying capacity of earth?

– What pressures can we expect to worsen?» Economic?» Physical?» Sociopolitical?

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Poor Countries less efficient in energy use, thus more wasteful & polluting

Developed (relatively wealthy) countries have decreased CO2/GDP$ emissions 50% in past 30 years

Low-income countries produce about 5x more emissions/GDP$ than rich countries

Example:

1. US co2 emissions/person: 24x India

2. US co2 emissions/GDP$: 1/3 of India levels

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Poor Countries’ access to clean air/water result in severe health problems

Over 1 billion people don’t have access to safe drinking water

2 billion don’t have adequate sanitation High rates of illness/disabilities

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Economic Development Argument

Raise people out of poverty Lower fertility rates Increase use of cleaner, less resource-intensive

technologies Often destructive to culture More sustainable?

– No guarantee that technology will keep up– tendency for multinational corporate exploitation– failures of empowerment often occur (especially

w/women), leading to dependency, injustice, corruption, more exploitation, political destabilization

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Income Distribution increasingly skewed

Wealthiest 20% of world population accounts for 83% of world income

Poorest 20% account for 1.4% of world income

Gap has more than doubled since 1960 US: Top 1% have as much after tax income

as bottom 100 million people (60%+)

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Arguments for failure of sustainable environmental systems Rural poor living in fragile ecosystems Ineffective property rights/lack of enforcement Concentration of power/lack of accountability

(especially w/multinationals, & non-democratic governments)

Trade in waste/toxics Trade agreements that weaken environmental

protection

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Arguments for failure of sustainable environmental systems (continued) Political power controlling; lack of public access Government/corporate control of news media Market has a short term perspective Tax incentives distort environment/natural

resource management Lack of leadershp in fostering ethical vision of

sustainability Cultural dysfunction may lead to social problems

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Alternatives that may lead to sustainable global situation

Disaster(s) cause rapid reduction in population? Government intervention?

– incentives– command & control– “new world order”

Free Market may work? Multinationals take over?