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General advice warning and disclaimer
This information has been provided by MLC Limited (ABN 90 000 000 402) a member of the National Group, 105–153 Miller Street, North Sydney 2060.
Any opinions expressed in this communication constitute our judgement at the time of issue and are subject to change. We believe that the information contained in this communication is correct and that any estimates, opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of compilation. However, no warranty is made as to their accuracy or reliability (which may change without notice) or other information contained in this communication.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The value of an investment may rise or fall with the changes in the market. Please note that all performance reported is before management fees and taxes, unless otherwise stated.
The specialist investment managers are current as at the date this communication was prepared. Investment managers are regularly reviewed and may be appointed or removed at any time without prior notice to you.
This communication contains general information and may constitute general advice. Any advice in this communication has been prepared without taking account of individual objectives, financial situation or needs. It should not be relied upon as a substitute for financial or other specialist advice.
Before making any decisions on the basis of this communication, you should consider the appropriateness of its content having regard to your particular investment objectives, financial situation or individual needs. You should obtain a Product Disclosure Statement or other disclosure document relating to any financial product issued by MLC Investments Limited (ABN 30 002 641 661 [include AFSL for PDSs/FSGs/Annual Reports]) and consider it before making any decision about whether to acquire or continue to hold the product. A copy of the Product Disclosure Statement or other disclosure document is available upon request by phoning the MLC call centre on 132 652 or on our website at mlc.com.au.
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Agenda
Time* Activity Speaker
11:00am Welcome & Introduction Mark Montaldi
11:05am Investment Update Michael Karagianis & Andrew Connors
11:50am “Q & A”
Midday Close
* All times shown as Eastern Daylight Savings Time
5
PIC 70/30 strategy - asset class returns
Source: MLC Investment Management
Total Return by Asset ClassMLC Wholesale Horizon 4 Balanced Portfolio
(before taking into account fees)
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
AustralianShares
Global Shares(Unhedged)
Global Shares(Hedged)
Global PropertySecurities
LTAR AustralianBonds
Global Bonds
Ret
urn
%(a
nnua
lised
for p
erio
ds g
reat
er th
an 1
yea
r)
Quarter to Dec-2011 1 year to Dec-2011 3 years to Dec-2011 5 years to Dec-2011
9
Key Investment Themes for 2012
1. Economic prospects for 2012
2. China - key issues for 2012
3. The role of alternatives in a post-GFC portfolio
4. Income investing – Investment fad or trend?
5. Where to next? Australian housing market update
6. Investment outlook and strategies for 2012
10
Sovereign debt levels a concern
Source: IMF (2012 estimates)
Eurozone has a critical problem – growth not austerity is the answer
11
Eurozone headed for a nasty recession
Source: Datastream
Eurozone struggling with the myth of “expansionary austerity”
13
Source: Datastream
Chinese economy is slowing Could impact on demand for commodities – expect easier
policy in 2012
15
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
Debt servicing costs are still highMost of it relates to mortgage debt – creating stress for many
households
16
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
Interest rates are fallingFurther rate cuts would be temporary however
18
Source: Sydney Morning Herald - 24th January 2012
Safe haven strategies RBA rate cuts and falling bond yields will see future
returns lower
20
Simple solutions will not deliver long termRetirees will run out of funds – need more sophisticated
solutions to last
21
Why invest overseas ?
Source: Datastream
Growth does not always give a good guide to sharemarket performance
22
Equities & credit more attractive
Source: MLC Investment Management
Expected to outperform cash and bonds but with tail risks & continuing volatility
24
What is LTAR?
The Challenge: • Volatility has wreaked havoc to investor plans over the past few years• Many investments and asset classes did not perform how they were
expected to, meaning many people are now seeking new places to invest
MLC Response: • LTAR is different to traditional funds. It has flexibility to invest
anywhere, at any time, even in none traditional asset classes. And as well as providing additional sources of returns, this also provides additional sources of diversification – to help buffer when markets are volatile.
26
Why invest? Features and benefits
Feature Benefit
Multi-sector, multi-manager An increased level of diversification by accessing many sources of return, especially through alternative assets such as: Private markets, commodities, high-yield debt, mezzanine debt, hedge funds, emerging markets, insurance related investments, Alpha investments
More diversification means the portfolio can generate from different assets, regardless of market cycle.
Gearing Can be applied to the portfolio to magnify returns (but also losses).
Real return objective above inflation
Aim of growing long-term wealth for investors (for example, in saving for retirement)
Strategic overlay Risk is actively managed by making medium term (3-7 year) asset allocation changes in response to the market
28
LTAR Actual versus Neutral Rolling 1 Year Return (gross)
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
No
v-06
Jan
-07
Ma
r-07
Ma
y-07
Jul-0
7
Se
p-0
7
No
v-07
Jan
-08
Ma
r-08
Ma
y-08
Jul-0
8
Se
p-0
8
No
v-08
Jan
-09
Ma
r-09
Ma
y-09
Jul-0
9
Se
p-0
9
No
v-09
Jan
-10
Ma
r-10
Ma
y-10
Jul-10
Se
p-1
0
No
v-10
Jan
-11
Mar-1
1
Ma
y-11
Jul-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Nov-1
1
To
tal r
etu
rn a
nd
VA
(%
pa
)
Strategic Overlay Performance Protecting against major risks
Value added since inception:
+4.6% per annum
Value AddedRolling 1 yr
return
Daring to be different
Net returns to end Dec 2011 (Wholesale)
1 Year 3 Years 5 Years
PIC LTAR -1.6% 10.9% 0.6%
100% Growth -7.6% 7.1% -3.8%
Growth 85/15 -5.4% 7.1% -2.5%
Balanced 70/30 -3.0% 7.5% -0.8%
Cons. Growth 50/50 -0.1% 7.3% 1.1%
Income 30/70 3.7% 6.7% 2.1%