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09.22.11 SUP-150Y
SUP-150Y
PATHS OF DISCOVERY AND CONFIRMATION:
THEORY, THEORY OF CHANGE AND RESEARCH DESIGN
THEORY OF CHANGEor LOGIC MODEL
Behind every program/intervention there is a theory Often not explicit Theory of change
One of your first tasks is to articulate the theory of change
09.22.11 SUP-150Y
THINKING ABOUT THEORIES
Interrelated assumptions, principles, and/or propositions and hypotheses to explain or guide the analysis.
A sequence of “if this, then this” statementsWorking out the details of our underlying
“theories” forces us to confront our assumptions
Why do we think this intervention will have the intended outcome?
What does this assume about the behaviors of individuals, groups or institutions?
09.22.11 SUP-150Y
THEORY OF CHANGE FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE STATE WELFARE AGENCY
If pregnant or parentingteens apply for public assistance, then
Then, they very likely have needs that will be met less effectively by DTA programs than by programs oriented to serving children, youth and their families offered by DSS. If we refer them to DSS
If they go to DSS, then they will be offered a place to live and supportive services.
If they accept a residential placement,they will receive supports and services that improve their health, the health of their child, their parenting skills, and their job skills
If they remain in the residential placement and accept the services offered, they will be more effective parents and more productive citizens, less likely to need public assistance in the future
09.22.11 SUP-150Y
THEORY OF CHANGE FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE DEPARTMENT OF SOCIAL SERVICES
If pregnant or parentingteens applying for public assistance enter a residential facility, then
Then, DSS will provide services to the teen and her child
If the teen participates in DSS provided services, then provide services, then…
Then, the teen will establish a better relationship with the child’s father
Then the baby will have a healthy birth
Then the teen will be a more effective parent
09.22.11 SUP-150Y
THE LOGIC MODEL FOR DSS If we provide services: (INPUTS)
1. Familial atmosphere; structure & discipline; experienced staff; community volunteers; high quality facilities; transportation; culturally & linguistically appropriate services
2. Parenting instruction & practice, mentors, counseling, outreach to fathers, abortion & adoption counseling
3. Medical care, child care
4. Life skills instruction, structure to independence, aging out services, follow-up services
5. High School, job training, part-time work
Then teen residents will take advantage of them (PROCESS)
If teens take advantage of these services, then teens will (OUTPUTS/OUTCOMES)1. Feel comfortable and actively
participate2. Become more effective parents
and make mature decisions about child bearing and child spacing
3. Continue to be integrated with their families and their child’s father, where appropriate
4. Be physically healthy, emotionally stable and school ready, as will their children
5. Know and practice good life management skills
6. Graduate from high school and move toward economic self-sufficiency
09.22.11 SUP-150Y
THEORIES OF CHANGE IN OTHER PAES NYPD: ASSESSING THE EMPIRICAL
EFFECTS OF A PILOT PROGRAM ON RECORDED INTERROGATIONS
UNDERSTANDING HOUSING IN BOSTON
DISMANTLING THE CRADLE TO PRISON PIPELINE
09.22.11 SUP-150Y
HOW DO I MOVE FROM A THEORY OF CHANGE TO A RESEARCH DESIGN?
Begin by clarifying and operationalizing your research question
What is the primary question?
What are the sub-questions? (Secondary questions?)
What information or data would I need to answer this question? These sub-questions?
How and where will I find that information?
How will I assess the reliability and validity of the information I find?
Will I be able to answer this question and all the sub-questions given my skills, time limitations and resource limitations?
09.22.11 SUP-150Y
THE POLICY ANALYSIS MODEL CONTRIBUTES TO IMPROVED ASSESSMENTS
Focuses our attention on the client’s question
Addresses the values question: What are the characteristics of the outcome we want? The processes we want?
What sources of information can we draw on?
How do we make decisions? What will we recommend?
09.22.11 SUP-150Y
09.22.11 SUP-150Y
BASIC PAE QUESTION TYPES
NEEDS ASSESSMENT
DESIGN A NEW PROGRAM OR DEVELOP A SOLUTION TO A KNOWN PROBLEM
IMPROVE THE PERFORMANCE OF A PROGRAM, AGENCY, ORGANIZATIONAL UNIT, ETC.
DESIGN OR CONDUCT AN EVALUATION OF A PROGRAM OR POLICY OPTION
DEVELOP A STRATEGIC PLAN FOR MORE EFFECTIVELY USING INSTITUTIONAL RESOURCES
DEVELOP A MARKETING/POLITICAL ADVOCACY CAMPAIGN
REPLICATE A PROGRAM, TAKE A PROGRAM TO SCALE
DESIGN A STRATEGY FOR MEASURING PROGRAM/AGENCY PERFORMANCE
POLICY ANALYSIS IS HARD
Even if you can: Identify good research questions; Gather good data; and Develop a process map of key steps
You still have to answer some difficult questions: Why do you think this outcome will happen? What does it assume about the behavior of:
Individuals? Groups? Institutions?
09.22.11 SUP-150Y