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2010 California Real Estate Market Update West End Professionals Rancho Cucamonga Leslie Appleton Young Chief Economist CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® August 5, 2010

08 5-10 westendpros

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Page 1: 08 5-10 westendpros

2010 California Real Estate Market Update

West End ProfessionalsRancho Cucamonga

Leslie Appleton YoungChief EconomistCALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

August 5, 2010

Page 2: 08 5-10 westendpros

US and California Economic Conditions

Page 3: 08 5-10 westendpros

Gross Domestic Product

-8%-7%-6%

-5%-4%-3%

-2%-1%

0%1%2%

3%4%5%

6%7%

8%

19

70

19

71

19

72

19

73

19

74

19

75

19

76

19

77

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

----

Q4

-08

Q1

-09

Q2

-09

Q3

-09

Q4

-09

Q1

-10

Q2

-10

2009: -2.4%; 2010 Q1: 3.7% Q2: 2.4%

ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE, CHAIN-TYPE (2005) $

ANNUAL QTRLY

2009 Largest Annual Drop since 1938 (-3.4%)

Page 4: 08 5-10 westendpros

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Ja

n-9

0J

ul-

90

Ja

n-9

1J

ul-

91

Ja

n-9

2J

ul-

92

Ja

n-9

3J

ul-

93

Ja

n-9

4J

ul-

94

Ja

n-9

5J

ul-

95

Ja

n-9

6J

ul-

96

Ja

n-9

7J

ul-

97

Ja

n-9

8J

ul-

98

Ja

n-9

9J

ul-

99

Ja

n-0

0J

ul-

00

Ja

n-0

1J

ul-

01

Ja

n-0

2J

ul-

02

Ja

n-0

3J

ul-

03

Ja

n-0

4J

ul-

04

Ja

n-0

5J

ul-

05

Ja

n-0

6J

ul-

06

Ja

n-0

7J

ul-

07

Ja

n-0

8J

ul-

08

Ja

n-0

9J

ul-

09

Ja

n-1

0

US-CA CA US

SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division

Unemployment RateCalifornia vs. United States

Page 5: 08 5-10 westendpros

-160000

-140000

-120000

-100000

-80000

-60000

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

Ja

n-0

8F

eb

-08

Ma

r-0

8A

pr-

08

Ma

y-0

8J

un

-08

Ju

l-0

8A

ug

-08

Se

p-0

8O

ct-

08

No

v-0

8D

ec

-08

Ja

n-0

9F

eb

-09

Ma

r-0

9A

pr-

09

Ma

y-0

9J

un

-09

Ju

l-0

9A

ug

-09

Se

p-0

9O

ct-

09

No

v-0

9D

ec

-09

Ja

n-1

0F

eb

-10

Ma

r-1

0A

pr-

10

Ma

y-1

0

California Non-farm Job Growth

SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division

Month-to-Month Changes 1/08 – 5/10

Page 6: 08 5-10 westendpros

Nonfarm Employment By Region

SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division

Nonfarm NonfarmEmployment Employment Percent

May-10 May-09 Change ChangeSouthern California 7,766.3 7,902.9 -136.6 -1.7%

Bay Area 3,002.3 3,075.7 -73.4 -2.4%

Central Valley 1,867.9 1,908.6 -40.7 -2.1%

Central Coast 468.3 478.8 -10.5 -2.2%

North Central 129.2 131.3 -2.1 -1.6%

CALIFORNIA 13,905.5 14,150.2 -244.7 -1.7%

(Thousands)

Page 7: 08 5-10 westendpros

Consumer Confidence Index: Summer Gloom

INDEX, 100=1985

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Ja

n-0

0A

pr-

00

Ju

l-0

0O

ct-

00

Ja

n-0

1A

pr-

01

Ju

l-0

1O

ct-

01

Ja

n-0

2A

pr-

02

Ju

l-0

2O

ct-

02

Ja

n-0

3A

pr-

03

Ju

l-0

3O

ct-

03

Ja

n-0

4A

pr-

04

Ju

l-0

4O

ct-

04

Ja

n-0

5A

pr-

05

Ju

l-0

5O

ct-

05

Ja

n-0

6A

pr-

06

Ju

l-0

6O

ct-

06

Ja

n-0

7A

pr-

07

Ju

l-0

7O

ct-

07

Ja

n-0

8A

pr-

08

Ju

l-0

8O

ct-

08

Ja

n-0

9A

pr-

09

Ju

l-0

9O

ct-

09

Ja

n-1

0A

pr-

10

Ju

l-1

0

Page 8: 08 5-10 westendpros

Consumer Price IndexMay 2010: All Items +2.0%; Core +.9%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Ja

n-8

0

Ja

n-8

1J

an

-82

Ja

n-8

3

Ja

n-8

4J

an

-85

Ja

n-8

6J

an

-87

Ja

n-8

8J

an

-89

Ja

n-9

0J

an

-91

Ja

n-9

2J

an

-93

Ja

n-9

4J

an

-95

Ja

n-9

6J

an

-97

Ja

n-9

8J

an

-99

Ja

n-0

0

Ja

n-0

1J

an

-02

Ja

n-0

3J

an

-04

Ja

n-0

5J

an

-06

Ja

n-0

7J

an

-08

Ja

n-0

9J

an

-10

All Items

Core

PERCENT CHANGE OVER LAST 12 MONTHS

Page 9: 08 5-10 westendpros

Historic Monetary Stimulus

Page 10: 08 5-10 westendpros

SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation

Mortgage Rates at 50 Year Lows

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Ja

n-9

1J

ul-

91

Ja

n-9

2J

ul-

92

Ja

n-9

3J

ul-

93

Ja

n-9

4J

ul-

94

Ja

n-9

5J

ul-

95

Ja

n-9

6J

ul-

96

Ja

n-9

7J

ul-

97

Ja

n-9

8J

ul-

98

Ja

n-9

9J

ul-

99

Ja

n-0

0J

ul-

00

Ja

n-0

1J

ul-

01

Ja

n-0

2J

ul-

02

Ja

n-0

3J

ul-

03

Ja

n-0

4J

ul-

04

Ja

n-0

5J

ul-

05

Ja

n-0

6J

ul-

06

Ja

n-0

7J

ul-

07

Ja

n-0

8J

ul-

08

Ja

n-0

9J

ul-

09

Ja

n-1

0

FRM

ARM

Federal Funds

Page 11: 08 5-10 westendpros

SOURCE: Inside Mortgage Finance, compiled by C.A.R.

Conv/Conf 30-Yr FRM vs. N.C. Jumbo 30-Yr FRM Spread

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Ja

n-0

8

Fe

b-0

8

Ma

r-0

8

Ap

r-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Ju

n-0

8

Ju

l-0

8

Au

g-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Oc

t-0

8

No

v-0

8

De

c-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Fe

b-0

9

Ma

r-0

9

Ap

r-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Ju

n-0

9

Ju

l-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Se

p-0

9

Oc

t-0

9

No

v-0

9

De

c-0

9

Conv/Conf 30-Yr FRM N.C Jumbo 30-Yr FRM Spread

Note: data for research purposes only, do not redistribute

L/R Avg Spread: 1.6%

Page 12: 08 5-10 westendpros

Distressed Commercial RE Growing

billions

Distressed properties include those that are in bankruptcy, foreclosures, those that have received lender forbearance, or lender REO.

Distressed properties include those that are in bankruptcy, foreclosures, those that have received lender forbearance, or lender REO.

Page 13: 08 5-10 westendpros

Economy Summary

• Worst behind us, slow recovery expected• Government support in first half of 2010; slower

second half• Private sector economy must accelerate thereafter• Labor market: mixed signals, job growth in late ’10• Inflation: in check for next year to 18 months• Monetary policy: no rate hikes in first half of year,

up by ¼ point by year-end but only if recovery looks stable

Page 14: 08 5-10 westendpros

2010 Forecast

Page 15: 08 5-10 westendpros

U.S. Economic Outlook

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f

US GDP 3.6% 3.1% 2.7% 2.1% 0.4% -2.4% 3.0%

Nonfarm Job Growth

1.1% 1.7% 1.8% 1.1% -0.4% -4.3% -0.7%

Unemployment 5.5% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 5.8% 9.3% 9.8%

CPI 2.7% 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 3.8% -0.3% 2.0%

Real Disposable Income, % Change

3.4% 1.3% 4.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.9% 1.1%

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

Forecast Date: June 18, 2010

Page 16: 08 5-10 westendpros

California Economic Outlook

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f

Nonfarm Job Growth

1.0% 1.8% 1.7% 0.8% -1.3% -6.0% -1.2%

Unemployment Rate

6.2% 5.4% 4.9% 5.4% 7.2% 11.4% 12.3%

Population Growth

1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0%

Real Disposable Income, % Change

3.6% 1.3% 3.4% 1.5% 0.1% -2.2% 1.0%

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

Forecast Date: June 18, 2010

Page 17: 08 5-10 westendpros

California Real Estate Market

Page 18: 08 5-10 westendpros

Sales Hit Bottom in 2007, Up in 2008 & 2009

UNITS/MEDIAN PRICE $

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

Sales of Existing Detached Homes Median Price

California Sales of Existing Homes and Median Price

-61% -25%

-44%

Page 19: 08 5-10 westendpros

$129 $132

$181

$224

$282

$327

$266

$194

$152 $150 $150

26%

16%

-19%

-27%-22%

-1% 0%

24%

37%

2%

$0.0

$50.0

$100.0

$150.0

$200.0

$250.0

$300.0

$350.0

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

F

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

$ Volume of Sales Percent Change% Change$ in Billion

Dollar Volume of Sales Peaked in ’05Down 54% Thru ‘09

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

-54%

*Based on $248,000 Median Price

.

*

Page 20: 08 5-10 westendpros

Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Pacific West Consumer Confidence

California, June 2010 Sales: 492,800 Units, down 4.2% YTY, Down 5.3% YTD

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Ja

n-0

0A

pr-

00

Ju

l-0

0O

ct-

00

Ja

n-0

1A

pr-

01

Ju

l-0

1O

ct-

01

Ja

n-0

2A

pr-

02

Ju

l-0

2O

ct-

02

Ja

n-0

3A

pr-

03

Ju

l-0

3O

ct-

03

Ja

n-0

4A

pr-

04

Ju

l-0

4O

ct-

04

Ja

n-0

5A

pr-

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Ju

l-0

5O

ct-

05

Ja

n-0

6A

pr-

06

Ju

l-0

6O

ct-

06

Ja

n-0

7A

pr-

07

Ju

l-0

7O

ct-

07

Ja

n-0

8A

pr-

08

Ju

l-0

8O

ct-

08

Ja

n-0

9A

pr-

09

Ju

l-0

9O

ct-

09

Ja

n-1

0A

pr-

10

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Sales Consumer Confidence INDEXUNITS

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®; The Conference Board

*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

Page 21: 08 5-10 westendpros

P: May-07$594,530

T: Feb-09$245,230

-59% frompeak

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000J

an

-01

Ju

l-0

1

Ja

n-0

2

Ju

l-0

2

Ja

n-0

3

Ju

l-0

3

Ja

n-0

4

Ju

l-0

4

Ja

n-0

5

Ju

l-0

5

Ja

n-0

6

Ju

l-0

6

Ja

n-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

Ja

n-0

8

Ju

l-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ju

l-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Median Price of Existing Detached HomesCalifornia, May 2010: $324,430, Up 23.2% YTY

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

Page 22: 08 5-10 westendpros

P: May-07$594,530

T: Feb-09$245,230

-59% frompeak

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000J

an

-01

Ju

l-0

1

Ja

n-0

2

Ju

l-0

2

Ja

n-0

3

Ju

l-0

3

Ja

n-0

4

Ju

l-0

4

Ja

n-0

5

Ju

l-0

5

Ja

n-0

6

Ju

l-0

6

Ja

n-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

Ja

n-0

8

Ju

l-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ju

l-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Median Price of Existing Detached HomesCalifornia, June 2010: $311,950, Up 13,6% YTY

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

Page 23: 08 5-10 westendpros

73.2%

20.3%

6.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

20

04

.10

20

05

.01

20

05

.04

20

05

.07

20

05

.10

20

06

.01

20

06

.04

20

06

.07

20

06

.10

20

07

.01

20

07

.04

20

07

.07

20

07

.10

20

08

.01

20

08

.04

20

08

.07

20

08

.10

20

09

.01

20

09

.04

20

09

.07

20

09

.10

20

10

.01

20

10

.04

Under 500 500 to 999 1 Mil +

Sales By Price Range October 2004 – present

SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association, C.A.R.

Page 24: 08 5-10 westendpros

Peak vs. Trough Price

RegionPeak

MonthPeak Price

Trough Month

Trough Price

% Chg From Peak

Monterey Region Aug-07 $798,210 Feb-09 $241,130 -69.8%

High Desert Apr-06 $334,860 May-09 $106,210 -68.3%

Riverside/San Bernardino Jan-07 $415,160 Apr-09 $156,840 -62.2%

Palm Springs/Lower Desert Jun-05 $393,370 Apr-09 $150,140 -61.8%

CALIFORNIA May-07 $594,530 Feb-09 $245,230 -58.8%

Sacramento Aug-05 $394,450 Apr-09 $167,340 -57.6%

San Francisco Bay Area May-07 $853,910 Feb-09 $399,040 -53.3%

Northern Wine Country Jan-06 $645,080 Feb-09 $310,950 -51.8%

Los Angeles Aug-07 $605,300 Mar-09 $295,100 -51.2%

Ventura Aug-06 $710,910 Feb-09 $359,630 -49.4%

Santa Clara Apr-07 $868,410 Feb-09 $445,000 -48.8%

San Diego May-06 $622,380 Mar-09 $326,830 -47.5%

San Luis Obispo Jun-06 $620,540 Apr-09 $338,160 -45.5%

Northern California Aug-05 $440,420 May-10 $243,200 -44.8%Orange County Apr-07 $747,260 Jan-09 $423,100 -43.4%

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

Page 25: 08 5-10 westendpros

Trough vs. Current Price – Jun 2010

RegionTrough Month

Trough Price

Jun-10 Median

% Chg From Trough

San Francisco Bay Area Feb-09 $399,040 $598,640 50.0%

Santa Clara Feb-09 $445,000 $633,000 42.2%

Monterey Region Feb-09 $241,130 $338,460 40.4%

Palm Springs/Lower Desert Apr-09 $150,140 $198,570 32.3%

San Luis Obispo Apr-09 $338,160 $440,000 30.1%

CALIFORNIA Feb-09 $245,230 $311,950 27.2%

Ventura Feb-09 $359,630 $450,930 25.4%

Riverside/San Bernardino Apr-09 $156,840 $191,900 22.4%

Orange County Jan-09 $423,100 $517,620 22.3%

San Diego Mar-09 $326,830 $397,910 21.7%

High Desert May-09 $106,210 $125,620 18.3%

Northern Wine Country Feb-09 $310,950 $364,740 17.3%

Sacramento Apr-09 $167,340 $196,220 17.3%

Los Angeles Mar-09 $295,100 $334,800 13.5%Northern California May-10 $243,200 $247,550 1.8%

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

Page 26: 08 5-10 westendpros

Peak vs. Current Price – Jun 2010

RegionPeak

MonthPeak Price

Jun-10 Median

% Chg From Peak

High Desert Apr-06 $334,860 $125,620 -62.5%

Monterey Region Aug-07 $798,210 $338,460 -57.6%

Riverside/San Bernardino Jan-07 $415,160 $191,900 -53.8%

Sacramento Aug-05 $394,450 $196,220 -50.3%

Palm Springs/Lower Desert Jun-05 $393,370 $198,570 -49.5%

CALIFORNIA May-07 $594,530 $311,950 -47.5%

Los Angeles Aug-07 $605,300 $334,800 -44.7%

Northern California Aug-05 $440,420 $247,550 -43.8%

Northern Wine Country Jan-06 $645,080 $364,740 -43.5%

Ventura Aug-06 $710,910 $450,930 -36.6%

San Diego May-06 $622,380 $397,910 -36.1%

Orange County Apr-07 $747,260 $517,620 -30.7%

San Francisco Bay Area May-07 $853,910 $598,640 -29.9%

San Luis Obispo Jun-06 $620,540 $440,000 -29.1%Santa Clara Apr-07 $868,410 $633,000 -27.1%

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

Page 27: 08 5-10 westendpros

California’s Million-Dollar Home Sales

18,62124,436

42,50650,010

54,77336,990

20,59515,703

10,65813,101

8,9065,366

3,7622,6512,0172,5222,2982,8903,3623,7734,271

2,718

0

10

00

0

20

00

0

30

00

0

40

00

0

50

00

0

60

00

0

1988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009

Source: DataQuick Information Systems

Year

Number of Homes

Page 28: 08 5-10 westendpros

Unsold Inventory IndexCalifornia, June 2010: 4.8 Months

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Ja

n-8

8

Ja

n-8

9

Ja

n-9

0

Ja

n-9

1

Ja

n-9

2

Ja

n-9

3

Ja

n-9

4

Ja

n-9

5

Ja

n-9

6

Ja

n-9

7

Ja

n-9

8

Ja

n-9

9

Ja

n-0

0

Ja

n-0

1

Ja

n-0

2

Ja

n-0

3

Ja

n-0

4

Ja

n-0

5

Ja

n-0

6

Ja

n-0

7

Ja

n-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

MONTHS

Page 29: 08 5-10 westendpros

Price Range (Thousand) Jun-10 May-10 Jun-09

$1,000K+ 9.2 10.1 11.3$750-1000K 5.9 5.5 6.3$500-750K 4.8 4.3 4.0$300-500K 4.2 3.9 3.5$0-300K 3.0 3.1 2.5

Unsold Inventory Index (Months)

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 30: 08 5-10 westendpros

25%

37%40%

49%

62%67% 68%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

San Diego Orange San LuisObispo

Los Angeles Sacramento Riverside/SanBernardino

Kern

Jun-10

Distressed Sales to Total Sales Ratio

Page 31: 08 5-10 westendpros

County/Region Jun-09 Mar-10 Jun-10

San Diego 44.2% 30.1% 24.9%Orange 44.1% 40.4% 36.7%San Luis Obispo 37.6% 45.2% 39.7%Los Angeles 58.7% 49.2% 49.0%Sacramento 70.6% 64.3% 62.1%Riverside/San Bernardino 82.8% 71.4% 67.4%Kern 76.9% 71.0% 67.9%

Distressed Sales to Total Sales Ratio

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

Page 32: 08 5-10 westendpros

17%14%

24%22%

36%38%

45%

23%

8%

22%

15%

26% 26%29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

San Diego Orange San LuisObispo

Los Angeles Sacramento Riverside/SanBernardino

Kern

REO/Bank Owned Short Sales

Distressed Sales Breakdown(June 2010)

Page 33: 08 5-10 westendpros

11.3%

5.6%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Q1

/74

Q2

/75

Q3

/76

Q4

/77

Q1

/79

Q2

/80

Q3

/81

Q4

/82

Q1

/84

Q2

/85

Q3

/86

Q4

/87

Q1

/89

Q2

/90

Q3

/91

Q4

/92

Q1

/94

Q2

/95

Q3

/96

Q4

/97

Q1

/99

Q2

/00

Q3

/01

Q4

/02

Q1

/04

Q2

/05

Q3

/06

Q4

/07

Q1

/09

Delinquency Rate Foreclosure Rate

Mortgage Foreclosure & Delinquency RatesCalifornia: Q4-2009

SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association

Delinquencies: Long Run Average: 4.1%

Foreclosure Rate: Long Run Average: 1.0%

Page 34: 08 5-10 westendpros

REOs Are Even, Cancellations Are UpMay-10: 13,719 REOs • 4,027 Sold to 3rd Party • 17,262 Cancelled

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Ja

n-0

7F

eb

-07

Ma

r-0

7A

pr-

07

Ma

y-0

7J

un

-07

Ju

l-0

7A

ug

-07

Se

p-0

7O

ct-

07

No

v-0

7D

ec

-07

Ja

n-0

8F

eb

-08

Ma

r-0

8A

pr-

08

Ma

y-0

8J

un

-08

Ju

l-0

8A

ug

-08

Se

p-0

8O

ct-

08

No

v-0

8D

ec

-08

Ja

n-0

9F

eb

-09

Ma

r-0

9A

pr-

09

Ma

y-0

9J

un

-09

Ju

l-0

9A

ug

-09

Se

p-0

9O

ct-

09

No

v-0

9D

ec

-09

Ja

n-1

0F

eb

-10

Ma

r-1

0A

pr-

10

Ma

y-1

0

REOs Sold to 3rd Party Cancellations

SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com

6 Month Average:

REO: 13,709

3rd Party: 3,741

Cancelled: 15,553

Page 35: 08 5-10 westendpros

Summing Up Foreclosures

• Government Intervention kept Foreclosures around 30-40% of home sales toward the end of 2009, pace expected to continue into 2010

• NODs have come down from historic highs in first half of 2009 but have spread into higher priced areas

• Cancellations on the rise – due in large part to:– statutory requirement that a foreclosure sale be held within

one year-forced cancellation )– some form of loan workout: HAMP modification, short sale

or refinance– Filing errors

• Lenders lack the incentive to flood the marketplace with Foreclosures

Page 36: 08 5-10 westendpros

Riverside County

Economic Profile

Page 37: 08 5-10 westendpros

Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Pacific West Consumer Confidence

Riverside County, June 2010: 1,627 Units, Down 18.0% YTD, Down 18.5% YTY

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®; The Conference Board

INDEXUNITS

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Ja

n-9

0J

ul-

90

Ja

n-9

1J

ul-

91

Ja

n-9

2J

ul-

92

Ja

n-9

3J

ul-

93

Ja

n-9

4J

ul-

94

Ja

n-9

5J

ul-

95

Ja

n-9

6J

ul-

96

Ja

n-9

7J

ul-

97

Ja

n-9

8J

ul-

98

Ja

n-9

9J

ul-

99

Ja

n-0

0J

ul-

00

Ja

n-0

1J

ul-

01

Ja

n-0

2J

ul-

02

Ja

n-0

3J

ul-

03

Ja

n-0

4J

ul-

04

Ja

n-0

5J

ul-

05

Ja

n-0

6J

ul-

06

Ja

n-0

7J

ul-

07

Ja

n-0

8J

ul-

08

Ja

n-0

9J

ul-

09

Ja

n-1

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Sales Consumer Confidence

Page 38: 08 5-10 westendpros

Sales of Existing Detached HomesRiverside County, 2009: 21,026 Units, Up 21.7% YTY

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

UNITS

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

19

89

19

92

19

95

19

98

20

01

20

04

20

07 0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

pt

Oc

t

No

v

De

c

20062007200820092010

ANNUAL MONTHLY

Page 39: 08 5-10 westendpros

Median Price of Existing Detached HomesRiverside County, June 2010: $202,850, Up 17.8% YTY

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000J

an

-90

Ju

l-9

0J

an

-91

Ju

l-9

1J

an

-92

Ju

l-9

2J

an

-93

Ju

l-9

3J

an

-94

Ju

l-9

4J

an

-95

Ju

l-9

5J

an

-96

Ju

l-9

6J

an

-97

Ju

l-9

7J

an

-98

Ju

l-9

8J

an

-99

Ju

l-9

9J

an

-00

Ju

l-0

0J

an

-01

Ju

l-0

1J

an

-02

Ju

l-0

2J

an

-03

Ju

l-0

3J

an

-04

Ju

l-0

4J

an

-05

Ju

l-0

5J

an

-06

Ju

l-0

6J

an

-07

Ju

l-0

7J

an

-08

Ju

l-0

8J

an

-09

Ju

l-0

9J

an

-10

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 40: 08 5-10 westendpros

Median Price Annual ComparisonRiverside County, 2009: $172,714, Down 27.7% YTY

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,0001

98

9

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

pt

Oc

t

No

v

De

c

20062007200820092010

MONTHLYANNUAL

Page 41: 08 5-10 westendpros

May-10 May-09Yearly % Change

Riverside County $210,000 $180,000 16.7%

Banning $147,000 $112,500 30.7%

Beaumont $206,000 $199,000 3.5%

Cathedral City $162,000 $153,955 5.2%

Corona $336,750 $308,000 9.3%

Desert Hot Springs $110,000 $82,000 34.1%

Hemet $130,000 $121,000 7.4%

Indio $189,250 $171,000 10.7%

La Quinta $330,000 $325,000 1.5%

Lake Elsinore $180,000 $170,000 5.9%

Menifee $215,000 $205,500 4.6%

Mira Loma $340,000 $277,500 22.5%

Moreno Valley $165,000 $130,000 26.9%

Median Home Sales PriceRiverside County

SOURCE: C.A.R.; DataQuick Information Systems. The price statistics are derived from all types of home sales -- new and existing, condos and single-family.

Page 42: 08 5-10 westendpros

May-10 May-09Yearly % Change

Murrieta $249,000 $230,000 8.3%

Norco $297,250 $370,000 -19.7%

Palm Desert $308,000 $295,000 4.4%

Palm Springs $227,250 $200,000 13.6%

Perris $170,000 $132,000 28.8%

Rancho Mirage $490,000 $459,000 6.8%

Riverside $200,000 $177,000 13.0%

San Jacinto $135,500 $130,000 4.2%

Sun City $175,000 $146,500 19.5%

Temecula $270,000 $240,000 12.5%

Wildomar $210,000 $233,000 -9.9%

Winchester $235,500 $240,000 -1.9%

Median Home Sales PriceRiverside County

SOURCE: C.A.R.; DataQuick Information Systems. The price statistics are derived from all types of home sales -- new and existing, condos and single-family.

Page 43: 08 5-10 westendpros

Unsold Inventory IndexRiverside and San Bernardino Counties, June 2010: 3.9 Months

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

MONTHS

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Ja

n-9

3J

ul-

93

Ja

n-9

4J

ul-

94

Ja

n-9

5J

ul-

95

Ja

n-9

6J

ul-

96

Ja

n-9

7J

ul-

97

Ja

n-9

8J

ul-

98

Ja

n-9

9J

ul-

99

Ja

n-0

0J

ul-

00

Ja

n-0

1J

ul-

01

Ja

n-0

2J

ul-

02

Ja

n-0

3J

ul-

03

Ja

n-0

4J

ul-

04

Ja

n-0

5J

ul-

05

Ja

n-0

6J

ul-

06

Ja

n-0

7J

ul-

07

Ja

n-0

8J

ul-

08

Ja

n-0

9J

ul-

09

Ja

n-1

0

Inland Empire Riverside & San Bernardino

Page 44: 08 5-10 westendpros

Median Time on the MarketSingle-Family Homes – Riverside/San Bernardino, May 2010: 31.3 Days

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1/1

/19

89

1/1

/19

90

1/1

/19

91

1/1

/19

92

1/1

/19

93

1/1

/19

94

1/1

/19

95

1/1

/19

96

1/1

/19

97

1/1

/19

98

1/1

/19

99

1/1

/20

00

1/1

/20

01

1/1

/20

02

1/1

/20

03

1/1

/20

04

1/1

/20

05

1/1

/20

06

1/1

/20

07

1/1

/20

08

1/1

/20

09

1/1

/20

10

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 45: 08 5-10 westendpros

ForeclosuresRiverside County

SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000Q

1/89

Q1/

90

Q1/

91

Q1/

92

Q1/

93

Q1/

94

Q1/

95

Q1/

96

Q1/

97

Q1/

98

Q1/

99

Q1/

00

Q1/

01

Q1/

02

Q1/

03

Q1/

04

Q1/

05

Q1/

06

Q1/

07

Q1/

08

Q1/

09

Page 46: 08 5-10 westendpros

Ratio of Foreclosures to Home SalesRiverside County

SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Page 47: 08 5-10 westendpros

San Bernardino County

Economic Profile

Page 48: 08 5-10 westendpros

Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Pacific West Consumer Confidence

San Bernardino County, June 2010: 566 Units, Down 22.7% YTD, Down 25.5% YTY

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®;The Conference Board

INDEXUNITS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Ja

n-9

0J

ul-

90

Ja

n-9

1J

ul-

91

Ja

n-9

2J

ul-

92

Ja

n-9

3J

ul-

93

Ja

n-9

4J

ul-

94

Ja

n-9

5J

ul-

95

Ja

n-9

6J

ul-

96

Ja

n-9

7J

ul-

97

Ja

n-9

8J

ul-

98

Ja

n-9

9J

ul-

99

Ja

n-0

0J

ul-

00

Ja

n-0

1J

ul-

01

Ja

n-0

2J

ul-

02

Ja

n-0

3J

ul-

03

Ja

n-0

4J

ul-

04

Ja

n-0

5J

ul-

05

Ja

n-0

6J

ul-

06

Ja

n-0

7J

ul-

07

Ja

n-0

8J

ul-

08

Ja

n-0

9J

ul-

09

Ja

n-1

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Sales Consumer Confidence

Page 49: 08 5-10 westendpros

Sales of Existing Detached HomesSan Bernardino County, 2009: 7,937 Units, Up 34.5% YTY

UNITS

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

19

89

19

92

19

95

19

98

20

01

20

04

20

07 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

20062007200820092010

ANNUAL MONTHLY

Page 50: 08 5-10 westendpros

Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSan Bernardino County, June 2010: $170,260, Up 17.4% YTY

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000J

an

-90

Ju

l-9

0J

an

-91

Ju

l-9

1J

an

-92

Ju

l-9

2J

an

-93

Ju

l-9

3J

an

-94

Ju

l-9

4J

an

-95

Ju

l-9

5J

an

-96

Ju

l-9

6J

an

-97

Ju

l-9

7J

an

-98

Ju

l-9

8J

an

-99

Ju

l-9

9J

an

-00

Ju

l-0

0J

an

-01

Ju

l-0

1J

an

-02

Ju

l-0

2J

an

-03

Ju

l-0

3J

an

-04

Ju

l-0

4J

an

-05

Ju

l-0

5J

an

-06

Ju

l-0

6J

an

-07

Ju

l-0

7J

an

-08

Ju

l-0

8J

an

-09

Ju

l-0

9J

an

-10

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 51: 08 5-10 westendpros

Median Price Annual ComparisonSan Bernardino County, 2009: $149,578, Down 31.9% YTY

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

19

89

19

92

19

95

19

98

20

01

20

04

20

07 $-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

pt

Oc

t

No

v

De

c

20062007200820092010

MONTHLYANNUAL

Page 52: 08 5-10 westendpros

May-10 May-09Yearly % Change

San Bernardino County $160,000 $137,750 16.2%Adelanto $90,000 $75,000 20.0%Apple Valley $123,500 $100,000 23.5%Barstow $54,000 $65,000 -16.9%Big Bear City $140,500 $217,500 -35.4%Big Bear Lake $231,000 $301,750 -23.4%Bloomington $160,000 $100,000 60.0%Chino $299,000 $260,000 15.0%Chino Hills $437,750 $405,000 8.1%Colton $121,000 $100,000 21.0%Crestline $102,500 $138,500 -26.0%Fontana $221,000 $182,000 21.4%Hesperia $115,500 $122,000 -5.3%Highland $171,750 $183,500 -6.4%Joshua Tree $76,500 $98,000 -21.9%

Median Home Sales PriceSan Bernardino County

SOURCE: C.A.R.; DataQuick Information Systems. The price statistics are derived from all types of home sales -- new and existing, condos and single-family.

Page 53: 08 5-10 westendpros

May-10 May-09Yearly % Change

Lake Arrowhead $402,500 $321,500 25.2%Loma Linda $244,000 $284,000 -14.1%Montclair $259,500 $221,500 17.2%Ontario $210,000 $193,500 8.5%Rancho Cucamonga $307,500 $287,500 7.0%Redlands $215,000 $222,500 -3.4%Rialto $165,000 $130,000 26.9%San Bernardino $105,000 $70,000 50.0%Twentynine Palms $79,250 $70,750 12.0%Upland $344,000 $320,000 7.5%Victorville $127,000 $109,500 16.0%Yucaipa $205,000 $208,000 -1.4%Yucca Valley $102,000 $109,250 -6.6%

Median Home Sales PriceSan Bernardino County

SOURCE: C.A.R.; DataQuick Information Systems. The price statistics are derived from all types of home sales -- new and existing, condos and single-family.

Page 54: 08 5-10 westendpros

Unsold Inventory IndexRiverside and San Bernardino Counties, June 2010: 3.9 Months

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

MONTHS

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Ja

n-9

3J

ul-

93

Ja

n-9

4J

ul-

94

Ja

n-9

5J

ul-

95

Ja

n-9

6J

ul-

96

Ja

n-9

7J

ul-

97

Ja

n-9

8J

ul-

98

Ja

n-9

9J

ul-

99

Ja

n-0

0J

ul-

00

Ja

n-0

1J

ul-

01

Ja

n-0

2J

ul-

02

Ja

n-0

3J

ul-

03

Ja

n-0

4J

ul-

04

Ja

n-0

5J

ul-

05

Ja

n-0

6J

ul-

06

Ja

n-0

7J

ul-

07

Ja

n-0

8J

ul-

08

Ja

n-0

9J

ul-

09

Ja

n-1

0

Inland Empire Riverside & San Bernardino

Page 55: 08 5-10 westendpros

Median Time on the MarketSingle-Family Homes – Riverside/San Bernardino, May 2010: 31.3 Days

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1/1

/19

89

1/1

/19

90

1/1

/19

91

1/1

/19

92

1/1

/19

93

1/1

/19

94

1/1

/19

95

1/1

/19

96

1/1

/19

97

1/1

/19

98

1/1

/19

99

1/1

/20

00

1/1

/20

01

1/1

/20

02

1/1

/20

03

1/1

/20

04

1/1

/20

05

1/1

/20

06

1/1

/20

07

1/1

/20

08

1/1

/20

09

1/1

/20

10

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 56: 08 5-10 westendpros

ForeclosuresSan Bernardino County

SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Q1

/89

Q3

/89

Q1

/90

Q3

/90

Q1

/91

Q3

/91

Q1

/92

Q3

/92

Q1

/93

Q3

/93

Q1

/94

Q3

/94

Q1

/95

Q3

/95

Q1

/96

Q3

/96

Q1

/97

Q3

/97

Q1

/98

Q3

/98

Q1

/99

Q3

/99

Q1

/00

Q3

/00

Q1

/01

Q3

/01

Q1

/02

Q3

/02

Q1

/03

Q3

/03

Q1

/04

Q3

/04

Q1

/05

Q3

/05

Q1

/06

Q3

/06

Q1

/07

Q3

/07

Q1

/08

Q3

/08

Q1

/09

Q3

/09

Page 57: 08 5-10 westendpros

Ratio of Foreclosures to Home SalesSan Bernardino County

SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

Page 58: 08 5-10 westendpros

Rancho Cucamonga

Page 59: 08 5-10 westendpros

Sales of Single-Family Detached Home

SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

Rancho Cucamonga, July 2010: 114 Units, -18.0% MTM, -5.0% YTY

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Median Price of Single-Family Detached Home

SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

Rancho Cucamonga, July 2010: $342,000, +0.6% MTM, +9.3% YTY

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Number of For Sale Properties

SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

Rancho Cucamonga, July 2010: 654 Units, -3.3% MTM, -6.8% YTY

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Months Supply of Inventory Rancho Cucamonga, July 2010: 2.9 Months

SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

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Rancho Cucamonga: Foreclosure Mapping (Hybrid) Preforeclosure: 289 • Auction: 520 • Bank Owned: 111

Source: ForeclosureRadar.com

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Rancho Cucamonga: Foreclosure Mapping (Street) Preforeclosure: 289 • Auction: 520 • Bank Owned: 111

Source: ForeclosureRadar.com

Ontario

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Ontario

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Sales of Single-Family Detached Home

SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

Ontario, July 2010: 96 Units, -23.8% MTM, -35.6% YTY

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Median Price of Single-Family Detached Home

SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

Ontario, July 2010: $226,000, +1.9% MTM, +15.9% YTY

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Number of For Sale Properties

SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

Ontario, July 2010: 550 Units, -11.3% MTM, -12.7% YTY

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Months Supply of Inventory Ontario, July 2010: 2.0 Months

SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

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Ontario: Foreclosure Mapping (Hybrid) Preforeclosure: 276 • Auction: 495 • Bank Owned: 130

Source: ForeclosureRadar.com

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Ontario: Foreclosure Mapping (Street) Preforeclosure: 276 • Auction: 495 • Bank Owned: 130

Source: ForeclosureRadar.com

Ontario

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Fontana

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Sales of Single-Family Detached Home

SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

Fontana, July 2010: 230 Units, -25.1% MTM, -42.8% YTY

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Median Price of Single-Family Detached Home

SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

Fontana, July 2010: $205,000, -4.7% MTM, +13.9% YTY

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Number of For Sale Properties

SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

Fontana, July 2010: 1,431 Units, -8.6% MTM, -21.1% YTY

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Months Supply of Inventory Fontana, July 2010: 3.0 Months

SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

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Fontana: Foreclosure Mapping (Hybrid) Preforeclosure: 772 • Auction: 1,407 • Bank Owned: 279

Source: ForeclosureRadar.com

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Fontana: Foreclosure Mapping (Street) Preforeclosure: 772 • Auction: 1,407 • Bank Owned: 279

Source: ForeclosureRadar.com

Ontario

Page 79: 08 5-10 westendpros

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• Get listings priced to sell and buyers off the fence

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• Find more Short sale and REO business

Visit www.foreclosureradar.comEnter promo code RADAR99 for a FREE 7 Day Trial

and an exclusive C.A.R. 10% discount.See flyer insert within your packet for more information

Page 80: 08 5-10 westendpros

2009 Housing Market Survey

Page 81: 08 5-10 westendpros

$220,640

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

Median Net Cash To Sellers2005: $220K 2009: $50K

Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?

$50,000

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Sellers Reporting a Net Cash LossPercent of All Sellers

32.9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?

Long Run Average = 9.3%

Page 83: 08 5-10 westendpros

Proportion of Home Sellers Planning to Repurchase

39.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Q. Is the seller planning on purchasing another home?

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Proportion of First-Time HomebuyersCalifornia

47.0%

38.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09

% First-Time Home Buyers Long Run Average

Q. Was the buyer a first-time buyer?

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Median Price to Median HH Income RatioCalifornia

6

4

10

6

4.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

Average Over Years Shown: 6:1 Ratio

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55.4%

5.14

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0

1

2

3

4

5

6% with Multiple Offers

# of Multiple offers (Average)

Multiple Offers:Over 1/2 homes sold 2009 had multiple offers

Page 87: 08 5-10 westendpros

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

All Hombuyers First-Time BuyersRepeat Buyers

Percent of Buyers with Zero Down PaymentFirst-Time Buyers vs. Repeat Buyers

5.0%

3.7%

2.8%

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19.6%

0%

2%4%

6%8%

10%12%

14%16%

18%20%

22%

Percent of All Cash Sales

Page 89: 08 5-10 westendpros

12.1%

5.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Investment/Rental Property Vacation/Second Home

Buyer Use of Property(All Homes)

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2010 Forecast

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California Housing Market Outlook

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f

SFH Resales (000s)

601.8 624.7 625.0 477.5 346.9 439.8 546.5 521.0

% Change 5.1% 3.8% 0.03% -23.6% -27.3% 26.8% 24.3% -4.7%

Median Price ($000s)

$371.5 $450.8 $522.7 $556.4 $560.3 $346.4 $275.0 $300.0

% Change 17.5% 21.3% 16.0% 6.5% 0.7% -38.2% -20.6% 9.1%

30-Yr FRM 5.8% 5.8% 5.9% 6.4% 6.3% 6.0% 5.1% 5.3%

1-Yr ARM 3.8% 3.9% 4.5% 5.5% 5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 4.2%

Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Forecast Date: June 18, 2010

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2010 Survey of HomebuyersMarch 2010

Page 93: 08 5-10 westendpros

Share of Distressed Sales(All Buyers)

49%

38%

13%

43%41%

16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Regular Market Sales REO/Bank-Owned Property Short Sales

2009 2010

Q. Was the home you bought a regular market sale, an REO/ bank-owned property, a short sale, or other?

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Became Aware of Home Purchased Through Agent

Q. Did you become aware of the home you purchased through a real estate agent?

85%

77%

91%

98%

83%

All Buyers

First-Time Buyers

Repeat Buyers

Internet Buyers

Traditional Buyers

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Home Buyers Who Looked at Newspaper/Magazine Ads to Search for a Home

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

All buyers 20% 12% 13% 13% 8%

First-time buyers 14% 12% 10% 10% 7%

Repeat buyers 21% 12% 14% 14% 9%

Internet buyers 15% 13% 10% 10% 6%

Traditional buyers 35% 11% 24% 24% 21%

Q. Did you look at newspaper/magazine ads to search for a home?

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More Buyers Expected Home Prices to Appreciate2009 vs 2010

2009 2010

1 year 5 years 10 years 1 year 5 years 10 years

Up 8% 34% 60% 23% 52% 76%

Down 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Flat 34% 18% 3% 28% 12% 2%

Don't Know 56% 48% 37% 48% 36% 22%

Q. Do you think home prices in your neighborhood will go up, down, or stay flat in 1 year? 5 years? 10 years?

All Buyers

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0%

26%

43%

30%

0%0%

14%

19%

46%

20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

24 months orless

25-36 months 37 - 48 months 49 - 60 months 60+ months

Mean = 56.6 months; Median = 60 months

Time Planned to Stay at Current Home Before Selling It(All Buyers)

Q. How many months do you plan to stay at your current home before selling it?

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Down Payment As a Percent of Home Price(2010)

10%

0% 0%

39%

34%

17%

0% 0% 0%

26%

33%

41%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

5% or less 6-10% 11-15% 16-20% 21-25% 26% ormore

First-Time Buyers Repeat Buyers

First-Time Buyers Mean =23.1%Repeat Buyers Mean = 37.3%

Q. How much did you put down as your down payment for the home purchased (in percent of the home value)?

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Buyers Who Know the Terms of Their Loan

91%

88%

91%

90%

89%

90%

12%

9%

10%

11%

10%

9%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Short Sale

REO

Regular MarketSales

Repeat Buyers

First-Time Buyers

All Buyers

Yes No

Q. Do you know the term of your loan?

Page 100: 08 5-10 westendpros

0% 0% 0%3%

6% 7%5%

12%

37%

30%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2009 2010

2009: Mean = 8.1 Median = 9

2010: Mean = 8.5, Median = 9

Scale: “1” = very easy, “10” = very difficult

Level of Difficulty to Obtain Financing(All Buyers)

Q. Please rate how easy of difficult it was to obtain financing on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being very easy and 10 being very difficult.

Page 101: 08 5-10 westendpros

Reasons for Satisfaction with the Real Estate Agent You Used

Q. Why do you have that level of satisfaction with your agent?

69%

56%

55%

45%

17%

73%

61%

57%

55%

22%

74%

46%

Always quick to respond

Negotiated good deal on my behalf

Worked hard on my behalf

Helped find the best home for me

Listened to what we needed

Kept me up to date on transaction

2010 2009

Page 102: 08 5-10 westendpros

Advice for Real Estate Agents

Q. What advice would you give to real estate agents to improve the process or the level of service?

All Buyers

First-Time Buyers

Repeat Buyers

Show how you can negotiate aggressively for the buyer 56% 56% 56%Improve the speed of communications 31% 29% 33%Provide references for lenders with the best product for me 29% 29% 28%Provide references for lenders who will perform 27% 27% 28%Have more expertise about how to deal with banks on bank owed properties, short sales, and/or distressed sales

22% 25% 20%

Provide quality information on where the market is going and why 17% 17% 18%Find out about listings before I do 11% 11% 11%Provide more support, assistance in getting a mortgage 11% 10% 11%Improve the quality of communications 11% 11% 10%

Page 103: 08 5-10 westendpros

In closing….

Page 104: 08 5-10 westendpros

CA New Housing PermitsCA is not building new homes – housing shortage in our future?

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,0001

98

8

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

Single Family Multi-Family

SOURCE: CBIA

Household Growth: Approx 200,000/yr

A drop of 83% since 2004

Page 105: 08 5-10 westendpros
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From the Bookshelf…

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Business Tools You Can Use

May 2010

Page 114: 08 5-10 westendpros

www.car.org Business Tools Market Response Center

www.car.org/tools/smart

Page 115: 08 5-10 westendpros

CUSTOMIZABLE MARKET REPORT: C.A.R. Market Snapshot®

Send Your Clients the Latest Market

Analysis Co-Branded with Your NAME AND CONTACT

INFO!!

www.car.org Market Data Research Publications Market Snapshot

Page 116: 08 5-10 westendpros

Get the Latest 411 on the Market or Economy: C.A.R. Real Estate 411

www.car.org Market Data Real Estate 411

•Stay Up-To-Date on the latest 411 on the Market or Economy.

•Answer Your Clients Questions

•Send your Clients to a Great Resource

•Quick easy to read format

Page 117: 08 5-10 westendpros

www.car.org Market Data Speeches

Speeches & Presentations

The End – Thank You

Follow Us on Twitter: @ssutachan

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Thank [email protected]