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2010 California Real Estate Market Update
West End ProfessionalsRancho Cucamonga
Leslie Appleton YoungChief EconomistCALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
August 5, 2010
US and California Economic Conditions
Gross Domestic Product
-8%-7%-6%
-5%-4%-3%
-2%-1%
0%1%2%
3%4%5%
6%7%
8%
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
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19
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19
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19
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19
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20
09
----
Q4
-08
Q1
-09
Q2
-09
Q3
-09
Q4
-09
Q1
-10
Q2
-10
2009: -2.4%; 2010 Q1: 3.7% Q2: 2.4%
ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE, CHAIN-TYPE (2005) $
ANNUAL QTRLY
2009 Largest Annual Drop since 1938 (-3.4%)
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Ja
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Ja
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Ja
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2J
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92
Ja
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3J
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93
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4J
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n-9
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n-9
9J
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n-0
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n-0
1J
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2J
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3J
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4J
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5J
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US-CA CA US
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
Unemployment RateCalifornia vs. United States
-160000
-140000
-120000
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
Ja
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-08
Ma
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8A
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Ma
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8J
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-08
Ju
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8A
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-08
Se
p-0
8O
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No
v-0
8D
ec
-08
Ja
n-0
9F
eb
-09
Ma
r-0
9A
pr-
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Ma
y-0
9J
un
-09
Ju
l-0
9A
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-09
Se
p-0
9O
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v-0
9D
ec
-09
Ja
n-1
0F
eb
-10
Ma
r-1
0A
pr-
10
Ma
y-1
0
California Non-farm Job Growth
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
Month-to-Month Changes 1/08 – 5/10
Nonfarm Employment By Region
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
Nonfarm NonfarmEmployment Employment Percent
May-10 May-09 Change ChangeSouthern California 7,766.3 7,902.9 -136.6 -1.7%
Bay Area 3,002.3 3,075.7 -73.4 -2.4%
Central Valley 1,867.9 1,908.6 -40.7 -2.1%
Central Coast 468.3 478.8 -10.5 -2.2%
North Central 129.2 131.3 -2.1 -1.6%
CALIFORNIA 13,905.5 14,150.2 -244.7 -1.7%
(Thousands)
Consumer Confidence Index: Summer Gloom
INDEX, 100=1985
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
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0
Consumer Price IndexMay 2010: All Items +2.0%; Core +.9%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Ja
n-8
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Ja
n-8
1J
an
-82
Ja
n-8
3
Ja
n-8
4J
an
-85
Ja
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6J
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-87
Ja
n-8
8J
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-89
Ja
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0J
an
-91
Ja
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2J
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-93
Ja
n-9
4J
an
-95
Ja
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6J
an
-97
Ja
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8J
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-99
Ja
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Ja
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1J
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-02
Ja
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3J
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-04
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-06
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-08
Ja
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All Items
Core
PERCENT CHANGE OVER LAST 12 MONTHS
Historic Monetary Stimulus
SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
Mortgage Rates at 50 Year Lows
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Ja
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Ja
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2J
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3J
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FRM
ARM
Federal Funds
SOURCE: Inside Mortgage Finance, compiled by C.A.R.
Conv/Conf 30-Yr FRM vs. N.C. Jumbo 30-Yr FRM Spread
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Ja
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8
Fe
b-0
8
Ma
r-0
8
Ap
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Ma
y-0
8
Ju
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8
Ju
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8
Au
g-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Oc
t-0
8
No
v-0
8
De
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8
Ja
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Ap
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Oc
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9
No
v-0
9
De
c-0
9
Conv/Conf 30-Yr FRM N.C Jumbo 30-Yr FRM Spread
Note: data for research purposes only, do not redistribute
L/R Avg Spread: 1.6%
Distressed Commercial RE Growing
billions
Distressed properties include those that are in bankruptcy, foreclosures, those that have received lender forbearance, or lender REO.
Distressed properties include those that are in bankruptcy, foreclosures, those that have received lender forbearance, or lender REO.
Economy Summary
• Worst behind us, slow recovery expected• Government support in first half of 2010; slower
second half• Private sector economy must accelerate thereafter• Labor market: mixed signals, job growth in late ’10• Inflation: in check for next year to 18 months• Monetary policy: no rate hikes in first half of year,
up by ¼ point by year-end but only if recovery looks stable
2010 Forecast
U.S. Economic Outlook
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f
US GDP 3.6% 3.1% 2.7% 2.1% 0.4% -2.4% 3.0%
Nonfarm Job Growth
1.1% 1.7% 1.8% 1.1% -0.4% -4.3% -0.7%
Unemployment 5.5% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 5.8% 9.3% 9.8%
CPI 2.7% 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 3.8% -0.3% 2.0%
Real Disposable Income, % Change
3.4% 1.3% 4.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.9% 1.1%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
Forecast Date: June 18, 2010
California Economic Outlook
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f
Nonfarm Job Growth
1.0% 1.8% 1.7% 0.8% -1.3% -6.0% -1.2%
Unemployment Rate
6.2% 5.4% 4.9% 5.4% 7.2% 11.4% 12.3%
Population Growth
1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0%
Real Disposable Income, % Change
3.6% 1.3% 3.4% 1.5% 0.1% -2.2% 1.0%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
Forecast Date: June 18, 2010
California Real Estate Market
Sales Hit Bottom in 2007, Up in 2008 & 2009
UNITS/MEDIAN PRICE $
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
Sales of Existing Detached Homes Median Price
California Sales of Existing Homes and Median Price
-61% -25%
-44%
$129 $132
$181
$224
$282
$327
$266
$194
$152 $150 $150
26%
16%
-19%
-27%-22%
-1% 0%
24%
37%
2%
$0.0
$50.0
$100.0
$150.0
$200.0
$250.0
$300.0
$350.0
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
F
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
$ Volume of Sales Percent Change% Change$ in Billion
Dollar Volume of Sales Peaked in ’05Down 54% Thru ‘09
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
-54%
*Based on $248,000 Median Price
.
*
Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Pacific West Consumer Confidence
California, June 2010 Sales: 492,800 Units, down 4.2% YTY, Down 5.3% YTD
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Ja
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Sales Consumer Confidence INDEXUNITS
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®; The Conference Board
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
P: May-07$594,530
T: Feb-09$245,230
-59% frompeak
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000J
an
-01
Ju
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Median Price of Existing Detached HomesCalifornia, May 2010: $324,430, Up 23.2% YTY
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
P: May-07$594,530
T: Feb-09$245,230
-59% frompeak
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000J
an
-01
Ju
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Median Price of Existing Detached HomesCalifornia, June 2010: $311,950, Up 13,6% YTY
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
73.2%
20.3%
6.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
20
04
.10
20
05
.01
20
05
.04
20
05
.07
20
05
.10
20
06
.01
20
06
.04
20
06
.07
20
06
.10
20
07
.01
20
07
.04
20
07
.07
20
07
.10
20
08
.01
20
08
.04
20
08
.07
20
08
.10
20
09
.01
20
09
.04
20
09
.07
20
09
.10
20
10
.01
20
10
.04
Under 500 500 to 999 1 Mil +
Sales By Price Range October 2004 – present
SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association, C.A.R.
Peak vs. Trough Price
RegionPeak
MonthPeak Price
Trough Month
Trough Price
% Chg From Peak
Monterey Region Aug-07 $798,210 Feb-09 $241,130 -69.8%
High Desert Apr-06 $334,860 May-09 $106,210 -68.3%
Riverside/San Bernardino Jan-07 $415,160 Apr-09 $156,840 -62.2%
Palm Springs/Lower Desert Jun-05 $393,370 Apr-09 $150,140 -61.8%
CALIFORNIA May-07 $594,530 Feb-09 $245,230 -58.8%
Sacramento Aug-05 $394,450 Apr-09 $167,340 -57.6%
San Francisco Bay Area May-07 $853,910 Feb-09 $399,040 -53.3%
Northern Wine Country Jan-06 $645,080 Feb-09 $310,950 -51.8%
Los Angeles Aug-07 $605,300 Mar-09 $295,100 -51.2%
Ventura Aug-06 $710,910 Feb-09 $359,630 -49.4%
Santa Clara Apr-07 $868,410 Feb-09 $445,000 -48.8%
San Diego May-06 $622,380 Mar-09 $326,830 -47.5%
San Luis Obispo Jun-06 $620,540 Apr-09 $338,160 -45.5%
Northern California Aug-05 $440,420 May-10 $243,200 -44.8%Orange County Apr-07 $747,260 Jan-09 $423,100 -43.4%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
Trough vs. Current Price – Jun 2010
RegionTrough Month
Trough Price
Jun-10 Median
% Chg From Trough
San Francisco Bay Area Feb-09 $399,040 $598,640 50.0%
Santa Clara Feb-09 $445,000 $633,000 42.2%
Monterey Region Feb-09 $241,130 $338,460 40.4%
Palm Springs/Lower Desert Apr-09 $150,140 $198,570 32.3%
San Luis Obispo Apr-09 $338,160 $440,000 30.1%
CALIFORNIA Feb-09 $245,230 $311,950 27.2%
Ventura Feb-09 $359,630 $450,930 25.4%
Riverside/San Bernardino Apr-09 $156,840 $191,900 22.4%
Orange County Jan-09 $423,100 $517,620 22.3%
San Diego Mar-09 $326,830 $397,910 21.7%
High Desert May-09 $106,210 $125,620 18.3%
Northern Wine Country Feb-09 $310,950 $364,740 17.3%
Sacramento Apr-09 $167,340 $196,220 17.3%
Los Angeles Mar-09 $295,100 $334,800 13.5%Northern California May-10 $243,200 $247,550 1.8%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
Peak vs. Current Price – Jun 2010
RegionPeak
MonthPeak Price
Jun-10 Median
% Chg From Peak
High Desert Apr-06 $334,860 $125,620 -62.5%
Monterey Region Aug-07 $798,210 $338,460 -57.6%
Riverside/San Bernardino Jan-07 $415,160 $191,900 -53.8%
Sacramento Aug-05 $394,450 $196,220 -50.3%
Palm Springs/Lower Desert Jun-05 $393,370 $198,570 -49.5%
CALIFORNIA May-07 $594,530 $311,950 -47.5%
Los Angeles Aug-07 $605,300 $334,800 -44.7%
Northern California Aug-05 $440,420 $247,550 -43.8%
Northern Wine Country Jan-06 $645,080 $364,740 -43.5%
Ventura Aug-06 $710,910 $450,930 -36.6%
San Diego May-06 $622,380 $397,910 -36.1%
Orange County Apr-07 $747,260 $517,620 -30.7%
San Francisco Bay Area May-07 $853,910 $598,640 -29.9%
San Luis Obispo Jun-06 $620,540 $440,000 -29.1%Santa Clara Apr-07 $868,410 $633,000 -27.1%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
California’s Million-Dollar Home Sales
18,62124,436
42,50650,010
54,77336,990
20,59515,703
10,65813,101
8,9065,366
3,7622,6512,0172,5222,2982,8903,3623,7734,271
2,718
0
10
00
0
20
00
0
30
00
0
40
00
0
50
00
0
60
00
0
1988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009
Source: DataQuick Information Systems
Year
Number of Homes
Unsold Inventory IndexCalifornia, June 2010: 4.8 Months
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Ja
n-8
8
Ja
n-8
9
Ja
n-9
0
Ja
n-9
1
Ja
n-9
2
Ja
n-9
3
Ja
n-9
4
Ja
n-9
5
Ja
n-9
6
Ja
n-9
7
Ja
n-9
8
Ja
n-9
9
Ja
n-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ja
n-0
3
Ja
n-0
4
Ja
n-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
MONTHS
Price Range (Thousand) Jun-10 May-10 Jun-09
$1,000K+ 9.2 10.1 11.3$750-1000K 5.9 5.5 6.3$500-750K 4.8 4.3 4.0$300-500K 4.2 3.9 3.5$0-300K 3.0 3.1 2.5
Unsold Inventory Index (Months)
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
25%
37%40%
49%
62%67% 68%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
San Diego Orange San LuisObispo
Los Angeles Sacramento Riverside/SanBernardino
Kern
Jun-10
Distressed Sales to Total Sales Ratio
County/Region Jun-09 Mar-10 Jun-10
San Diego 44.2% 30.1% 24.9%Orange 44.1% 40.4% 36.7%San Luis Obispo 37.6% 45.2% 39.7%Los Angeles 58.7% 49.2% 49.0%Sacramento 70.6% 64.3% 62.1%Riverside/San Bernardino 82.8% 71.4% 67.4%Kern 76.9% 71.0% 67.9%
Distressed Sales to Total Sales Ratio
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
17%14%
24%22%
36%38%
45%
23%
8%
22%
15%
26% 26%29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
San Diego Orange San LuisObispo
Los Angeles Sacramento Riverside/SanBernardino
Kern
REO/Bank Owned Short Sales
Distressed Sales Breakdown(June 2010)
11.3%
5.6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Q1
/74
Q2
/75
Q3
/76
Q4
/77
Q1
/79
Q2
/80
Q3
/81
Q4
/82
Q1
/84
Q2
/85
Q3
/86
Q4
/87
Q1
/89
Q2
/90
Q3
/91
Q4
/92
Q1
/94
Q2
/95
Q3
/96
Q4
/97
Q1
/99
Q2
/00
Q3
/01
Q4
/02
Q1
/04
Q2
/05
Q3
/06
Q4
/07
Q1
/09
Delinquency Rate Foreclosure Rate
Mortgage Foreclosure & Delinquency RatesCalifornia: Q4-2009
SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association
Delinquencies: Long Run Average: 4.1%
Foreclosure Rate: Long Run Average: 1.0%
REOs Are Even, Cancellations Are UpMay-10: 13,719 REOs • 4,027 Sold to 3rd Party • 17,262 Cancelled
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Ja
n-0
7F
eb
-07
Ma
r-0
7A
pr-
07
Ma
y-0
7J
un
-07
Ju
l-0
7A
ug
-07
Se
p-0
7O
ct-
07
No
v-0
7D
ec
-07
Ja
n-0
8F
eb
-08
Ma
r-0
8A
pr-
08
Ma
y-0
8J
un
-08
Ju
l-0
8A
ug
-08
Se
p-0
8O
ct-
08
No
v-0
8D
ec
-08
Ja
n-0
9F
eb
-09
Ma
r-0
9A
pr-
09
Ma
y-0
9J
un
-09
Ju
l-0
9A
ug
-09
Se
p-0
9O
ct-
09
No
v-0
9D
ec
-09
Ja
n-1
0F
eb
-10
Ma
r-1
0A
pr-
10
Ma
y-1
0
REOs Sold to 3rd Party Cancellations
SOURCE: ForeclosureRadar.com
6 Month Average:
REO: 13,709
3rd Party: 3,741
Cancelled: 15,553
Summing Up Foreclosures
• Government Intervention kept Foreclosures around 30-40% of home sales toward the end of 2009, pace expected to continue into 2010
• NODs have come down from historic highs in first half of 2009 but have spread into higher priced areas
• Cancellations on the rise – due in large part to:– statutory requirement that a foreclosure sale be held within
one year-forced cancellation )– some form of loan workout: HAMP modification, short sale
or refinance– Filing errors
• Lenders lack the incentive to flood the marketplace with Foreclosures
Riverside County
Economic Profile
Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Pacific West Consumer Confidence
Riverside County, June 2010: 1,627 Units, Down 18.0% YTD, Down 18.5% YTY
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®; The Conference Board
INDEXUNITS
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Ja
n-9
0J
ul-
90
Ja
n-9
1J
ul-
91
Ja
n-9
2J
ul-
92
Ja
n-9
3J
ul-
93
Ja
n-9
4J
ul-
94
Ja
n-9
5J
ul-
95
Ja
n-9
6J
ul-
96
Ja
n-9
7J
ul-
97
Ja
n-9
8J
ul-
98
Ja
n-9
9J
ul-
99
Ja
n-0
0J
ul-
00
Ja
n-0
1J
ul-
01
Ja
n-0
2J
ul-
02
Ja
n-0
3J
ul-
03
Ja
n-0
4J
ul-
04
Ja
n-0
5J
ul-
05
Ja
n-0
6J
ul-
06
Ja
n-0
7J
ul-
07
Ja
n-0
8J
ul-
08
Ja
n-0
9J
ul-
09
Ja
n-1
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Sales Consumer Confidence
Sales of Existing Detached HomesRiverside County, 2009: 21,026 Units, Up 21.7% YTY
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
UNITS
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Se
pt
Oc
t
No
v
De
c
20062007200820092010
ANNUAL MONTHLY
Median Price of Existing Detached HomesRiverside County, June 2010: $202,850, Up 17.8% YTY
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000J
an
-90
Ju
l-9
0J
an
-91
Ju
l-9
1J
an
-92
Ju
l-9
2J
an
-93
Ju
l-9
3J
an
-94
Ju
l-9
4J
an
-95
Ju
l-9
5J
an
-96
Ju
l-9
6J
an
-97
Ju
l-9
7J
an
-98
Ju
l-9
8J
an
-99
Ju
l-9
9J
an
-00
Ju
l-0
0J
an
-01
Ju
l-0
1J
an
-02
Ju
l-0
2J
an
-03
Ju
l-0
3J
an
-04
Ju
l-0
4J
an
-05
Ju
l-0
5J
an
-06
Ju
l-0
6J
an
-07
Ju
l-0
7J
an
-08
Ju
l-0
8J
an
-09
Ju
l-0
9J
an
-10
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Median Price Annual ComparisonRiverside County, 2009: $172,714, Down 27.7% YTY
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,0001
98
9
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Se
pt
Oc
t
No
v
De
c
20062007200820092010
MONTHLYANNUAL
May-10 May-09Yearly % Change
Riverside County $210,000 $180,000 16.7%
Banning $147,000 $112,500 30.7%
Beaumont $206,000 $199,000 3.5%
Cathedral City $162,000 $153,955 5.2%
Corona $336,750 $308,000 9.3%
Desert Hot Springs $110,000 $82,000 34.1%
Hemet $130,000 $121,000 7.4%
Indio $189,250 $171,000 10.7%
La Quinta $330,000 $325,000 1.5%
Lake Elsinore $180,000 $170,000 5.9%
Menifee $215,000 $205,500 4.6%
Mira Loma $340,000 $277,500 22.5%
Moreno Valley $165,000 $130,000 26.9%
Median Home Sales PriceRiverside County
SOURCE: C.A.R.; DataQuick Information Systems. The price statistics are derived from all types of home sales -- new and existing, condos and single-family.
May-10 May-09Yearly % Change
Murrieta $249,000 $230,000 8.3%
Norco $297,250 $370,000 -19.7%
Palm Desert $308,000 $295,000 4.4%
Palm Springs $227,250 $200,000 13.6%
Perris $170,000 $132,000 28.8%
Rancho Mirage $490,000 $459,000 6.8%
Riverside $200,000 $177,000 13.0%
San Jacinto $135,500 $130,000 4.2%
Sun City $175,000 $146,500 19.5%
Temecula $270,000 $240,000 12.5%
Wildomar $210,000 $233,000 -9.9%
Winchester $235,500 $240,000 -1.9%
Median Home Sales PriceRiverside County
SOURCE: C.A.R.; DataQuick Information Systems. The price statistics are derived from all types of home sales -- new and existing, condos and single-family.
Unsold Inventory IndexRiverside and San Bernardino Counties, June 2010: 3.9 Months
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
MONTHS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Ja
n-9
3J
ul-
93
Ja
n-9
4J
ul-
94
Ja
n-9
5J
ul-
95
Ja
n-9
6J
ul-
96
Ja
n-9
7J
ul-
97
Ja
n-9
8J
ul-
98
Ja
n-9
9J
ul-
99
Ja
n-0
0J
ul-
00
Ja
n-0
1J
ul-
01
Ja
n-0
2J
ul-
02
Ja
n-0
3J
ul-
03
Ja
n-0
4J
ul-
04
Ja
n-0
5J
ul-
05
Ja
n-0
6J
ul-
06
Ja
n-0
7J
ul-
07
Ja
n-0
8J
ul-
08
Ja
n-0
9J
ul-
09
Ja
n-1
0
Inland Empire Riverside & San Bernardino
Median Time on the MarketSingle-Family Homes – Riverside/San Bernardino, May 2010: 31.3 Days
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1/1
/19
89
1/1
/19
90
1/1
/19
91
1/1
/19
92
1/1
/19
93
1/1
/19
94
1/1
/19
95
1/1
/19
96
1/1
/19
97
1/1
/19
98
1/1
/19
99
1/1
/20
00
1/1
/20
01
1/1
/20
02
1/1
/20
03
1/1
/20
04
1/1
/20
05
1/1
/20
06
1/1
/20
07
1/1
/20
08
1/1
/20
09
1/1
/20
10
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
ForeclosuresRiverside County
SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000Q
1/89
Q1/
90
Q1/
91
Q1/
92
Q1/
93
Q1/
94
Q1/
95
Q1/
96
Q1/
97
Q1/
98
Q1/
99
Q1/
00
Q1/
01
Q1/
02
Q1/
03
Q1/
04
Q1/
05
Q1/
06
Q1/
07
Q1/
08
Q1/
09
Ratio of Foreclosures to Home SalesRiverside County
SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
San Bernardino County
Economic Profile
Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Pacific West Consumer Confidence
San Bernardino County, June 2010: 566 Units, Down 22.7% YTD, Down 25.5% YTY
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®;The Conference Board
INDEXUNITS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Ja
n-9
0J
ul-
90
Ja
n-9
1J
ul-
91
Ja
n-9
2J
ul-
92
Ja
n-9
3J
ul-
93
Ja
n-9
4J
ul-
94
Ja
n-9
5J
ul-
95
Ja
n-9
6J
ul-
96
Ja
n-9
7J
ul-
97
Ja
n-9
8J
ul-
98
Ja
n-9
9J
ul-
99
Ja
n-0
0J
ul-
00
Ja
n-0
1J
ul-
01
Ja
n-0
2J
ul-
02
Ja
n-0
3J
ul-
03
Ja
n-0
4J
ul-
04
Ja
n-0
5J
ul-
05
Ja
n-0
6J
ul-
06
Ja
n-0
7J
ul-
07
Ja
n-0
8J
ul-
08
Ja
n-0
9J
ul-
09
Ja
n-1
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Sales Consumer Confidence
Sales of Existing Detached HomesSan Bernardino County, 2009: 7,937 Units, Up 34.5% YTY
UNITS
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Dec
20062007200820092010
ANNUAL MONTHLY
Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSan Bernardino County, June 2010: $170,260, Up 17.4% YTY
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000J
an
-90
Ju
l-9
0J
an
-91
Ju
l-9
1J
an
-92
Ju
l-9
2J
an
-93
Ju
l-9
3J
an
-94
Ju
l-9
4J
an
-95
Ju
l-9
5J
an
-96
Ju
l-9
6J
an
-97
Ju
l-9
7J
an
-98
Ju
l-9
8J
an
-99
Ju
l-9
9J
an
-00
Ju
l-0
0J
an
-01
Ju
l-0
1J
an
-02
Ju
l-0
2J
an
-03
Ju
l-0
3J
an
-04
Ju
l-0
4J
an
-05
Ju
l-0
5J
an
-06
Ju
l-0
6J
an
-07
Ju
l-0
7J
an
-08
Ju
l-0
8J
an
-09
Ju
l-0
9J
an
-10
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Median Price Annual ComparisonSan Bernardino County, 2009: $149,578, Down 31.9% YTY
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07 $-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Se
pt
Oc
t
No
v
De
c
20062007200820092010
MONTHLYANNUAL
May-10 May-09Yearly % Change
San Bernardino County $160,000 $137,750 16.2%Adelanto $90,000 $75,000 20.0%Apple Valley $123,500 $100,000 23.5%Barstow $54,000 $65,000 -16.9%Big Bear City $140,500 $217,500 -35.4%Big Bear Lake $231,000 $301,750 -23.4%Bloomington $160,000 $100,000 60.0%Chino $299,000 $260,000 15.0%Chino Hills $437,750 $405,000 8.1%Colton $121,000 $100,000 21.0%Crestline $102,500 $138,500 -26.0%Fontana $221,000 $182,000 21.4%Hesperia $115,500 $122,000 -5.3%Highland $171,750 $183,500 -6.4%Joshua Tree $76,500 $98,000 -21.9%
Median Home Sales PriceSan Bernardino County
SOURCE: C.A.R.; DataQuick Information Systems. The price statistics are derived from all types of home sales -- new and existing, condos and single-family.
May-10 May-09Yearly % Change
Lake Arrowhead $402,500 $321,500 25.2%Loma Linda $244,000 $284,000 -14.1%Montclair $259,500 $221,500 17.2%Ontario $210,000 $193,500 8.5%Rancho Cucamonga $307,500 $287,500 7.0%Redlands $215,000 $222,500 -3.4%Rialto $165,000 $130,000 26.9%San Bernardino $105,000 $70,000 50.0%Twentynine Palms $79,250 $70,750 12.0%Upland $344,000 $320,000 7.5%Victorville $127,000 $109,500 16.0%Yucaipa $205,000 $208,000 -1.4%Yucca Valley $102,000 $109,250 -6.6%
Median Home Sales PriceSan Bernardino County
SOURCE: C.A.R.; DataQuick Information Systems. The price statistics are derived from all types of home sales -- new and existing, condos and single-family.
Unsold Inventory IndexRiverside and San Bernardino Counties, June 2010: 3.9 Months
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
MONTHS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Ja
n-9
3J
ul-
93
Ja
n-9
4J
ul-
94
Ja
n-9
5J
ul-
95
Ja
n-9
6J
ul-
96
Ja
n-9
7J
ul-
97
Ja
n-9
8J
ul-
98
Ja
n-9
9J
ul-
99
Ja
n-0
0J
ul-
00
Ja
n-0
1J
ul-
01
Ja
n-0
2J
ul-
02
Ja
n-0
3J
ul-
03
Ja
n-0
4J
ul-
04
Ja
n-0
5J
ul-
05
Ja
n-0
6J
ul-
06
Ja
n-0
7J
ul-
07
Ja
n-0
8J
ul-
08
Ja
n-0
9J
ul-
09
Ja
n-1
0
Inland Empire Riverside & San Bernardino
Median Time on the MarketSingle-Family Homes – Riverside/San Bernardino, May 2010: 31.3 Days
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1/1
/19
89
1/1
/19
90
1/1
/19
91
1/1
/19
92
1/1
/19
93
1/1
/19
94
1/1
/19
95
1/1
/19
96
1/1
/19
97
1/1
/19
98
1/1
/19
99
1/1
/20
00
1/1
/20
01
1/1
/20
02
1/1
/20
03
1/1
/20
04
1/1
/20
05
1/1
/20
06
1/1
/20
07
1/1
/20
08
1/1
/20
09
1/1
/20
10
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
ForeclosuresSan Bernardino County
SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Q1
/89
Q3
/89
Q1
/90
Q3
/90
Q1
/91
Q3
/91
Q1
/92
Q3
/92
Q1
/93
Q3
/93
Q1
/94
Q3
/94
Q1
/95
Q3
/95
Q1
/96
Q3
/96
Q1
/97
Q3
/97
Q1
/98
Q3
/98
Q1
/99
Q3
/99
Q1
/00
Q3
/00
Q1
/01
Q3
/01
Q1
/02
Q3
/02
Q1
/03
Q3
/03
Q1
/04
Q3
/04
Q1
/05
Q3
/05
Q1
/06
Q3
/06
Q1
/07
Q3
/07
Q1
/08
Q3
/08
Q1
/09
Q3
/09
Ratio of Foreclosures to Home SalesSan Bernardino County
SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Rancho Cucamonga
Sales of Single-Family Detached Home
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Rancho Cucamonga, July 2010: 114 Units, -18.0% MTM, -5.0% YTY
Median Price of Single-Family Detached Home
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Rancho Cucamonga, July 2010: $342,000, +0.6% MTM, +9.3% YTY
Number of For Sale Properties
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Rancho Cucamonga, July 2010: 654 Units, -3.3% MTM, -6.8% YTY
Months Supply of Inventory Rancho Cucamonga, July 2010: 2.9 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Rancho Cucamonga: Foreclosure Mapping (Hybrid) Preforeclosure: 289 • Auction: 520 • Bank Owned: 111
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com
Rancho Cucamonga: Foreclosure Mapping (Street) Preforeclosure: 289 • Auction: 520 • Bank Owned: 111
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com
Ontario
Ontario
Sales of Single-Family Detached Home
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Ontario, July 2010: 96 Units, -23.8% MTM, -35.6% YTY
Median Price of Single-Family Detached Home
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Ontario, July 2010: $226,000, +1.9% MTM, +15.9% YTY
Number of For Sale Properties
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Ontario, July 2010: 550 Units, -11.3% MTM, -12.7% YTY
Months Supply of Inventory Ontario, July 2010: 2.0 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Ontario: Foreclosure Mapping (Hybrid) Preforeclosure: 276 • Auction: 495 • Bank Owned: 130
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com
Ontario: Foreclosure Mapping (Street) Preforeclosure: 276 • Auction: 495 • Bank Owned: 130
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com
Ontario
Fontana
Sales of Single-Family Detached Home
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Fontana, July 2010: 230 Units, -25.1% MTM, -42.8% YTY
Median Price of Single-Family Detached Home
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Fontana, July 2010: $205,000, -4.7% MTM, +13.9% YTY
Number of For Sale Properties
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Fontana, July 2010: 1,431 Units, -8.6% MTM, -21.1% YTY
Months Supply of Inventory Fontana, July 2010: 3.0 Months
SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics
Fontana: Foreclosure Mapping (Hybrid) Preforeclosure: 772 • Auction: 1,407 • Bank Owned: 279
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com
Fontana: Foreclosure Mapping (Street) Preforeclosure: 772 • Auction: 1,407 • Bank Owned: 279
Source: ForeclosureRadar.com
Ontario
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2009 Housing Market Survey
$220,640
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Median Net Cash To Sellers2005: $220K 2009: $50K
Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?
$50,000
Sellers Reporting a Net Cash LossPercent of All Sellers
32.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?
Long Run Average = 9.3%
Proportion of Home Sellers Planning to Repurchase
39.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Q. Is the seller planning on purchasing another home?
Proportion of First-Time HomebuyersCalifornia
47.0%
38.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
% First-Time Home Buyers Long Run Average
Q. Was the buyer a first-time buyer?
Median Price to Median HH Income RatioCalifornia
6
4
10
6
4.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®
Average Over Years Shown: 6:1 Ratio
55.4%
5.14
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
1
2
3
4
5
6% with Multiple Offers
# of Multiple offers (Average)
Multiple Offers:Over 1/2 homes sold 2009 had multiple offers
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
All Hombuyers First-Time BuyersRepeat Buyers
Percent of Buyers with Zero Down PaymentFirst-Time Buyers vs. Repeat Buyers
5.0%
3.7%
2.8%
19.6%
0%
2%4%
6%8%
10%12%
14%16%
18%20%
22%
Percent of All Cash Sales
12.1%
5.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Investment/Rental Property Vacation/Second Home
Buyer Use of Property(All Homes)
2010 Forecast
California Housing Market Outlook
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f
SFH Resales (000s)
601.8 624.7 625.0 477.5 346.9 439.8 546.5 521.0
% Change 5.1% 3.8% 0.03% -23.6% -27.3% 26.8% 24.3% -4.7%
Median Price ($000s)
$371.5 $450.8 $522.7 $556.4 $560.3 $346.4 $275.0 $300.0
% Change 17.5% 21.3% 16.0% 6.5% 0.7% -38.2% -20.6% 9.1%
30-Yr FRM 5.8% 5.8% 5.9% 6.4% 6.3% 6.0% 5.1% 5.3%
1-Yr ARM 3.8% 3.9% 4.5% 5.5% 5.6% 5.2% 4.7% 4.2%
Source: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Forecast Date: June 18, 2010
2010 Survey of HomebuyersMarch 2010
Share of Distressed Sales(All Buyers)
49%
38%
13%
43%41%
16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Regular Market Sales REO/Bank-Owned Property Short Sales
2009 2010
Q. Was the home you bought a regular market sale, an REO/ bank-owned property, a short sale, or other?
Became Aware of Home Purchased Through Agent
Q. Did you become aware of the home you purchased through a real estate agent?
85%
77%
91%
98%
83%
All Buyers
First-Time Buyers
Repeat Buyers
Internet Buyers
Traditional Buyers
Home Buyers Who Looked at Newspaper/Magazine Ads to Search for a Home
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
All buyers 20% 12% 13% 13% 8%
First-time buyers 14% 12% 10% 10% 7%
Repeat buyers 21% 12% 14% 14% 9%
Internet buyers 15% 13% 10% 10% 6%
Traditional buyers 35% 11% 24% 24% 21%
Q. Did you look at newspaper/magazine ads to search for a home?
More Buyers Expected Home Prices to Appreciate2009 vs 2010
2009 2010
1 year 5 years 10 years 1 year 5 years 10 years
Up 8% 34% 60% 23% 52% 76%
Down 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Flat 34% 18% 3% 28% 12% 2%
Don't Know 56% 48% 37% 48% 36% 22%
Q. Do you think home prices in your neighborhood will go up, down, or stay flat in 1 year? 5 years? 10 years?
All Buyers
0%
26%
43%
30%
0%0%
14%
19%
46%
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
24 months orless
25-36 months 37 - 48 months 49 - 60 months 60+ months
Mean = 56.6 months; Median = 60 months
Time Planned to Stay at Current Home Before Selling It(All Buyers)
Q. How many months do you plan to stay at your current home before selling it?
Down Payment As a Percent of Home Price(2010)
10%
0% 0%
39%
34%
17%
0% 0% 0%
26%
33%
41%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
5% or less 6-10% 11-15% 16-20% 21-25% 26% ormore
First-Time Buyers Repeat Buyers
First-Time Buyers Mean =23.1%Repeat Buyers Mean = 37.3%
Q. How much did you put down as your down payment for the home purchased (in percent of the home value)?
Buyers Who Know the Terms of Their Loan
91%
88%
91%
90%
89%
90%
12%
9%
10%
11%
10%
9%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Short Sale
REO
Regular MarketSales
Repeat Buyers
First-Time Buyers
All Buyers
Yes No
Q. Do you know the term of your loan?
0% 0% 0%3%
6% 7%5%
12%
37%
30%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2009 2010
2009: Mean = 8.1 Median = 9
2010: Mean = 8.5, Median = 9
Scale: “1” = very easy, “10” = very difficult
Level of Difficulty to Obtain Financing(All Buyers)
Q. Please rate how easy of difficult it was to obtain financing on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being very easy and 10 being very difficult.
Reasons for Satisfaction with the Real Estate Agent You Used
Q. Why do you have that level of satisfaction with your agent?
69%
56%
55%
45%
17%
73%
61%
57%
55%
22%
74%
46%
Always quick to respond
Negotiated good deal on my behalf
Worked hard on my behalf
Helped find the best home for me
Listened to what we needed
Kept me up to date on transaction
2010 2009
Advice for Real Estate Agents
Q. What advice would you give to real estate agents to improve the process or the level of service?
All Buyers
First-Time Buyers
Repeat Buyers
Show how you can negotiate aggressively for the buyer 56% 56% 56%Improve the speed of communications 31% 29% 33%Provide references for lenders with the best product for me 29% 29% 28%Provide references for lenders who will perform 27% 27% 28%Have more expertise about how to deal with banks on bank owed properties, short sales, and/or distressed sales
22% 25% 20%
Provide quality information on where the market is going and why 17% 17% 18%Find out about listings before I do 11% 11% 11%Provide more support, assistance in getting a mortgage 11% 10% 11%Improve the quality of communications 11% 11% 10%
In closing….
CA New Housing PermitsCA is not building new homes – housing shortage in our future?
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,0001
98
8
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Single Family Multi-Family
SOURCE: CBIA
Household Growth: Approx 200,000/yr
A drop of 83% since 2004
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