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Integrated Risk Modelling in ATM

Andrew KILNER, Marta LLOBET LOPEZEUROCONTROL

DECMA

IRiS – Integrated Risk a risk model for Europe

IRiS - Who helped to build it

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The IRiS models…

MAC TMA RWY CollisionMAC ENR Taxiway Collision

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MAC

Overview of a risk model

Traffic Hazards

Strategic Conflict

Pre-Tactical Conflict

Tactical Conflict

Imminent Infringement

Imminent Collision

Near Collision

Providence

STCA

Strategic Pln

Planning

DCB

Tactical

ACAS

Airside Induced Conflict

Groundside Induced Conflict

Accident risk

AND

OR

Contr. Contr.

Contr. Contr. Contr. Contr.

OR

Contributors

Barriers

Precursors

Induced

Contr.

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A barrier…

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More Barriers to build a model

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You can do miracles with powerpoint…

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Currently available

AIM Release 2017(ECAC wide)

MAC En-RouteMAC TMARWY CollisionTWY CollisionCFITWake FAP

In progress (only qualitative)

RWY ExcursionMAC Oceanic

IRiS Deployment (within ANSPs)

MAC En-RouteMAC TMARWY CollisionTWY Collision

ViSioViSio

WebPlatform

ViSio

WebPlatform

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MAC

Overview of a risk model

Traffic Hazards

Strategic Conflict

Pre-Tactical Conflict

Tactical Conflict

Imminent Infringement

Imminent Collision

Near Collision

Providence

STCA

Strategic Pln

Planning

DCB

Tactical

ACAS

Airside Induced Conflict

Groundside Induced Conflict

Accident risk

AND

OR

Contr. Contr.

Contr. Contr. Contr. Contr.

OR

Contributors

Barriers

Precursors

Induced

Contr.

Who are we working with…

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So what…

Understanding the safety chain in depth

Building the bridge between safety assessment and safety assurance

Identification on key risk areas and analysis of risk profile

Not been built for 373

Initially intended for use to support the EUROCONTROL SRM process

Happy to discuss how EUROCONTROL and IRiS can support

Questions…