06/22/04 1

Data-Gathering Systems

IRIS

Stanford/USGS

UNAVCO

JPL/UCSD

Data ManagementOrganizations

PI’s, Groups, Centers, etc.

Publications, Presentations,Data Products

Supported by NSF/MREFC, NASA, USGSSupported by NSF/MREFC, NASA, USGS Supported by PI-Driven ProposalsSupported by PI-Driven Proposals

EarthScope Science IntegrationEarthScope Science Integration

06/22/04 2

EarthScope Science IntegrationEarthScope Science Integration

IRIS

Stanford/USGS

UNAVCO

JPL/UCSD

Data-Gathering Systems

DataManagement

Organizations

EarthScopeCollaboratory

Publications, Presentations,Data Products,

Integrated Models, Predictive Simulations,

etc.

FSM

RDM

AWM

SRM

PI’s, Groups,Centers, etc.

What should be the structure and functionality of an EarthScope

collaboratory?

Example: SCEC Community Modeling EnvironmentA collaboratory to support distributed scientific activities and product development by the SCEC community for seismic hazard analysis and risk reduction in Southern California

(and elsewhere).

06/22/04 4

Pathway Instantiations

SCEC Community Modeling EnvironmentSCEC Community Modeling EnvironmentA collaboratory for system-level earthquake scienceA collaboratory for system-level earthquake science

Knowledge Base

OntologiesCurated taxonomies,

Relations & constraints

Pathway ModelsPathway templates,

Models of simulation codes

Code Repositories

Data & SimulationProductsData Collections

FSM

RDM

AWM

SRM

Storage

GRIDPathway Execution

Policy, Data ingest, Repository access

Grid ServicesCompute & storage management, Security

DIGITALLIBRARIES

Navigation &Queries

Versioning,Replication

MediatedCollectionsFederated

access

KNOWLEDGEACQUISITION

Acquisition InterfacesDialog planning,

Pathway constructionstrategies

Pathway AssemblyTemplate instantiation,

Resource selection,Constraint checking

KNOWLEDGE REPRESENTATION & REASONINGKnowledge Server

Knowledge base access, InferenceTranslation Services

Syntactic & semantic translation

Computing

Users

06/22/04 5

SCEC Crustal Motion Map• 833 crustal velocity estimates at 762 points833 crustal velocity estimates at 762 points

• Co-seismic offsets for the Landers, Northridge & Co-seismic offsets for the Landers, Northridge & Hector Mine earthquakes Hector Mine earthquakes

• Data from SCIGNData from SCIGN

CMM.3.0.1 (Agnew et al., 2003)

06/22/04 6

SHA Computational PathwaysSHA Computational Pathways

IntensityMeasures

Earthquake Forecast Model

AttenuationRelationship

1

Pathway 1: Standard Seismic Hazard Analysis

AWMGroundMotionsSRM

Unified Structural RepresentationFaults Motions Stresses Anelastic model

2

AWP = Anelastic Wave PropagationSRM = Site Response Model

Pathway 2: Ground motion simulation

RDM

FSM

3

FSM = Fault System ModelRDM = Rupture Dynamics Model

Pathway 3: Physics-based earthquake forecasting

Invert

Other DataGeologyGeodesy

4

Pathway 4: Ground motion inverse problem

Physics-basedPhysics-basedsimulationssimulations

EmpiricalEmpiricalrelationshipsrelationships

Improvement Improvement of modelsof models

06/22/04 7

IMIM RupRupn,in,i

Intensity-MeasureIntensity-MeasureRelationshipRelationship

Earthquake-Earthquake-RuptureRuptureForecastForecast

€

Prob(IMT ≥ IML) =1− 1− Prob(IMT ≥ IML,Site | n,iRup ) * Prob( n,iRup )[ ]n=1

N ( i)

∑ ⎛

⎝ ⎜

⎞

⎠ ⎟

i=1

I

∏

Time SpanTime Span

Type, LevelType, Level

SourceSourceii

SiteSite

OpenSHAOpenSHAA Community Modeling Environment forA Community Modeling Environment for

Seismic Hazard AnalysisSeismic Hazard Analysis

Pathway 1: OpenSHAPathway 1: OpenSHA

Field, Jordan & Cornell (2002)Field, Jordan & Cornell (2002)

06/22/04 8

Example Application of Pathway 1:Scenarios for M 7.4 Southern San Andreas Rupture

Courtesy of Ned Field, USGS, PasadenaCourtesy of Ned Field, USGS, Pasadena

Without soil & basin effects With soil & basin effects

06/22/04 9

SHA Computational PathwaysSHA Computational Pathways

IntensityMeasures

Earthquake Forecast Model

AttenuationRelationship

1

1. Standardized Seismic Hazard Analysis

2. Ground motion simulation

3. Physics-based earthquake forecasting

4. Ground motion inverse problem

AWMGroundMotionsSRM

Unified Structural RepresentationFaults Motions Stresses Anelastic model

2

AWP = Anelastic Wave Propagation

SRM = Site Response Model

RDM

FSM

3

FSM = Fault System Model

RDM = Rupture Dynamics Model

Invert

Other DataGeologyGeodesy

4

Physics-basedsimulations

Empiricalrelationships

Improvement of models

06/22/04 10

SCEC Community Velocity ModelH. Magistrale et al. (2000)H. Magistrale et al. (2000)

06/22/04 11

SCEC Community Fault Model

A. Plesch and J. Shaw (2003)A. Plesch and J. Shaw (2003)

06/22/04 12

Unified Structural Representation

How can SCEC unify the development of structural

models (e.g. CVM) with tectonic models (e.g. CFM)?Tectonic models

Structural models

Community Fault Model Community Block Model

06/22/04 13

SCEC Community Block Model

Intended for use in:• fault systems analysis (FEM)• property modeling

Set of interconnected, closed volumes that are

bounded by major faults, as well as topography,

base-of-seismicity, and Moho surfaces.

J. Shaw et al. (2003)J. Shaw et al. (2003)

06/22/04 14

SHA Computational PathwaysSHA Computational Pathways

IntensityMeasures

Earthquake Forecast Model

AttenuationRelationship

1

1. Standardized Seismic Hazard Analysis

2. Ground motion simulation

3. Physics-based earthquake forecasting

4. Ground motion inverse problem

AWMGroundMotionsSRM

Unified Structural RepresentationFaults Motions Stresses Anelastic model

2

AWP = Anelastic Wave Propagation

SRM = Site Response Model

RDM

FSM

3

FSM = Fault System Model

RDM = Rupture Dynamics Model

Invert

Other DataGeologyGeodesy

4

Physics-basedsimulations

Empiricalrelationships

Improvement of models

06/22/04 15

Pathway 3: Physics-Based Earthquake Forecast

model feedback

data processing

model building

EarthquakeRuptureForecast

GeodeticData

GeologicData

SeismologicData

OtherData

data

GeodeticDeformation

Map

FaultActivity

Database

EarthquakeCatalog

Other DataProducts

data products

Fault Model Block ModelDeformation

Model

EarthquakeRupture

Simulation

models

06/22/04 16

Unified Structural Representation

Fault Systems

Source Physics

Ground Motion

Seismic Hazard

Analysis

SHA Computational PathwaysSHA Computational PathwaysFive SCEC Focus GroupsFive SCEC Focus Groups

Fault Model Block Model

DeformationModel

EarthquakeRuptureForecast

SeismicHazard

Products

AnelasticStructure

AttenuationRelationship

EarthquakeRupture

Simulation

GroundMotion

Simulation

06/22/04 17

Pathway 2 Verification

• Co-supported by SCEC, SCEC/CME, PEER-Lifelines

• Participation by 5 groups developing FD and FE codes

• Validation through hierarchy of standardized test cases

• Production of 96,000 synthetic seismograms for 6 earthquake scenarios on each of 10 faults

• SRB archive now available in CME

• Results are being analyzed to improve attenuation relationships

06/22/04 18

Pathway 3 Verification

• Supported by SCEC ESP Focus Group

• First workshop held in November, 2003

• Second workshop planned for Summer, 2004

• Results will be archived in CME

06/22/04 19

Ingredients for Successful Science Integration

• Problem focus– Regional tectonics & hazards

• Common objectives– Community data products & models

• Community identity & organization– History of collaboration, interactive working groups

• Collaboratory infrastructure– Code validation, standardization of products

• Regular forums for assessing progress– Workshops, annual meeting

• Funding– To support collaboration/collaboratory activities