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BHP Billiton Graeme Hunt President, Aluminium JPMorgan Australasian Conference Edinburgh, September 2006

060928 Graeme Hunt - JPM Conference - BHP · 2015-06-11 · Alcan Teck Cominco Inco Anglogold Cameco SPCC Impala Peabody Energy Rio Tinto BHP Billiton 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

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Page 1: 060928 Graeme Hunt - JPM Conference - BHP · 2015-06-11 · Alcan Teck Cominco Inco Anglogold Cameco SPCC Impala Peabody Energy Rio Tinto BHP Billiton 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

BHP Billiton

Graeme Hunt President, Aluminium

JPMorgan Australasian ConferenceEdinburgh, September 2006

Page 2: 060928 Graeme Hunt - JPM Conference - BHP · 2015-06-11 · Alcan Teck Cominco Inco Anglogold Cameco SPCC Impala Peabody Energy Rio Tinto BHP Billiton 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Slide 2

Disclaimer

The views expressed here contain information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. Norepresentation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. Any forward looking information in this presentation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by BHP Billiton.

Nothing in this release should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction.

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Slide 3

Angl

o Am

erica

n

CVRD

Shen

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Xstra

ta

Noril

sk

Barri

ck

Anglo

Plat

Alco

a

Newm

ont

Phelp

s Dod

ge

Alca

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Com

inco

Inco

Angl

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SPCC

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BHP Billiton

0102030405060708090

100110120130

Mark

et C

ap. o

n 17

Aug

ust 2

006 (

US$B

n)

The largest company in a consolidating sector

Market value of minerals industry US$788bnValue of Top Four US$316bnValue of BHP Billiton US$123bn

Source: Datastream and Bloomberg (data as at 17 August 2006)1. Market Capitalisation on 17 August 20062 .Market Capitalisation on 28 June 2001

BHP Billiton Market Cap 2006 (1) 2001(2)

US$ bn $122.5 $29.5

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Slide 4

Structure driven by customer needsPetroleum

Aluminium

Base Metals

Carbon Steel Materials Diamonds & Spec Prod Energy Coal Stainless Steel Materials

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Slide 5

Strategic drivers

“Our core purpose is to create long-term value through the discovery, development and conversion of natural resources, and the provision of innovative customer and market-focused solutions.”

World Class Assets

The BHP Billiton Way(Value Added Processes)

People

‘Licence to Operate’

Financial Strength and Discipline

Project Pipeline

Growth Options

Page 6: 060928 Graeme Hunt - JPM Conference - BHP · 2015-06-11 · Alcan Teck Cominco Inco Anglogold Cameco SPCC Impala Peabody Energy Rio Tinto BHP Billiton 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Slide 6

Highlights – 12 months ended June 2006• Record full year earnings

– Underlying EBITDA US$18.1 billion ⇈ 50%– Underlying EBIT US$15.3 billion ⇈ 54%– Attributable profit US$10.2 billion ⇈ 58%– Earnings per share 168.2 US cents ⇈ 60%

• Four major projects completed. WMC integration complete• Underlying EBIT margin ⇈ to 44% and ROCE ⇈ to 35%• Seven major projects approved. Current pipeline 23 projects, US$13.8

billion• Final dividend 18.5 US cents per share ⇈ 28%, consistent with outlook

and higher earnings and cash flow• Capital Return of US$3 billion. Total US$5 billion for FY2006

Page 7: 060928 Graeme Hunt - JPM Conference - BHP · 2015-06-11 · Alcan Teck Cominco Inco Anglogold Cameco SPCC Impala Peabody Energy Rio Tinto BHP Billiton 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Slide 7

Demand growth continues• China

– GDP growth 10% for CY2006– Major commodities consumption growth– Government macro controls to remain

• India– Growth led by service sector– Growing processing industries– BHP Billiton sales dominated by coking coal

and Cu concs• US

– Concerns on housing and inflation– Export sector remains positive

• Japan– Domestic consumption increasing– Government continues to promote growth

• Europe– Recovering strongly– Inflation concerns leading to monetary

tightening

Solid global economic growth to continueLong term outlook remains intact

Solid global economic growth to continueLong term outlook remains intact

371 431785

1,0751,357

1,588

2,407

2,946

3,611

FY 02 H1 03 H2 03 H1 04 H2 04 H1 05 H2 05 H1 06 H2 06

BHP Billiton sales to China (US$m)

168257

515

726

H1 05 H2 05 H1 06 H2 06

BHP Billi ton sales to India (US$m)

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Slide 8

Industry cost and capacity pressures

truck capacity increased – longer lead times9 months 18 months

ongoing

rig availability constraintsongoing

tyre preservation programmesongoing

shortage of experienced people – focus on training

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Slide 9

Inventory levels at historic lows Real LME metal prices at similar levels to late 1980s’ boom

Monthly LME Metal Prices and Stocks

020406080

100120140160180200

Jan-

73Ja

n-74

Jan-

75Ja

n-76

Jan-

77Ja

n-78

Jan-

79Ja

n-80

Jan-

81Ja

n-82

Jan-

83Ja

n-84

Jan-

85Ja

n-86

Jan-

87Ja

n-88

Jan-

89Ja

n-90

Jan-

91Ja

n-92

Jan-

93Ja

n-94

Jan-

95Ja

n-96

Jan-

97Ja

n-98

Jan-

99Ja

n-00

Jan-

01Ja

n-02

Jan-

03Ja

n-04

Jan-

05Ja

n-06

Real

LME

Mon

thly

Price

Inde

x (Ju

ly 20

06=1

00)*

02468101214161820

Exch

ange

and

Prod

ucer

Sto

cks (

Wee

ks' D

eman

d)*LME Price Index (left scale)

Stocks Consumption Ratio (right scale)

Source: Macquarie, BHP Billiton. * LME prices and stocks of Al, Cu, Zn, Pb, Ni

Stock/consumption ratios very low

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Slide 10

As at 30 June 2006Size of bubble indicates proposed capital expenditure; bold outer border signifies sanctioned project..

$US 200M$US 200M

Deep inventory of growth projectsBROWNFIELD

GREENFIELD

Blackwater CPP

NeptuneNeptune

NWS T5NWS T5

StybarrowStybarrow

NWSAngelNWSAngel

Koala UGKoala UG

ZamzamaPhase 2

AtlantisNorth

Douglas –MiddelburgDouglas –

Middelburg

SpenceSpence

2009CY2007 2008 2010

AlumarAlumar

SamarcoSamarco

NickelPetroleumDiamonds

Energy CoalAlumina

Iron OreBase Metals

Met. CoalMn Ore

WA Iron OreRGP 4+

WA Iron OreRGP 4+

PyreneesPyrenees

BMA Phase 2

YabuluYabulu

WA Iron OreRGP 3

WA Iron OreRGP 3

RavensthorpeRavensthorpeAtlantis SouthAtlantis South

Worsley E&GWorsley E&G

MaruwaiMaruwai

GEMCO

ShenziShenzi

Page 11: 060928 Graeme Hunt - JPM Conference - BHP · 2015-06-11 · Alcan Teck Cominco Inco Anglogold Cameco SPCC Impala Peabody Energy Rio Tinto BHP Billiton 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Slide 11

Longer term options will keep the pipeline replenished

Our exploration footprint spans traditional resource producing regions as well as many countries currently less comprehensively explored

2009CY2007 2 008 2010

Nicke lPetr oleu mDiamo nds

Ene rg y Coa lAlumin a

Iro n O reBase Met als

Me t. Coa lMn Ore

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Slide 12

Priorities for cash align with value creation

Delivering value to shareholdersDelivering value to shareholders

FY06:• 7 major projects

approved (US$5.1bn)• 23 projects in current

pipeline (US$13.8bn)

Since July 2001:• 30 projects plus 2 bolt on

acquisitions (US$7.7bn)• WMC acquisition

(US$7.2bn)• 38% average volume

growth

Value accretive Value accretive projectsprojects

FY06:• Underlying gearing

27.3%• Underlying EBITDA

interest cover44.3x

Since July 2001:• Moody’s A3 to A1• S&P A- to A+

CapitalCapitalstructurestructure

Return to Return to shareholdersshareholders

FY06:• US$5bn share buy

back programme• Full year dividend of

36cps, 29% increase on FY05

Since July 2001:• US$12.5bn returned to

shareholders• Additional US$3.0bn

announced today• 29% CAGR dividend

increase

Page 13: 060928 Graeme Hunt - JPM Conference - BHP · 2015-06-11 · Alcan Teck Cominco Inco Anglogold Cameco SPCC Impala Peabody Energy Rio Tinto BHP Billiton 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

BHP Billiton

Aluminium CSG Update

Page 14: 060928 Graeme Hunt - JPM Conference - BHP · 2015-06-11 · Alcan Teck Cominco Inco Anglogold Cameco SPCC Impala Peabody Energy Rio Tinto BHP Billiton 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Slide 14

Aluminium CSG FY06 Equity Production

Suriname 920kt

RefineriesBauxite Mines Smelters

MRN 2,565kt

Alumar 504kt

Valesul 43kt

Mozal 264ktHillside 702ktBayside 181kt

Alumar 179ktSuriname

2,163kt

Worsley 2,773kt Boddington

10,589kt

Now sold (effective 1/7/06)

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Slide 15

012345678

FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06

BHP Billiton Aluminium CSG

Sustainability

Community

Felt leadershipBehavioural Based Safety

Safety

CIFR

12MM

A

Health Environment

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Slide 16

Aluminium CSG – FY06 Results

% Change2005 % Change2006Year ended June (US$M)

Aluminium 1,191 959 +24• Fourth consecutive aluminium production record.• Worsley expansion and new ship loading berth

both commissioned.• Alumar refinery expansion approved.• Worsley Efficiency & Growth project

delayed.• Sale of 45.5% interest in Valesul smelter

completed in early July 2006.

• Alumina portfolio stretched but FY05 issues much improved• Cost trajectory – a major focus• Sustainable, predictable, continuous improvement the challenge in FY07

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Slide 17

Overview – Consistent Records Achieved

Description UOM FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06

EBIT ROC % 10% 12% 15% 17% 20%

EBIT Margin % 26% 28% 30% 28% 33%

ROCE % 7% 8% 14% 15% 18%

EBIT US$bn 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2

Aluminium CSG Performance Summary

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Slide 18

Diversification: 2002 - 2006

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Carbon Steel Materials PetroleumEnergy Coal AluminiumDiamonds & Specialty Products Base MetalsStainless Steel Materials

Page 19: 060928 Graeme Hunt - JPM Conference - BHP · 2015-06-11 · Alcan Teck Cominco Inco Anglogold Cameco SPCC Impala Peabody Energy Rio Tinto BHP Billiton 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Slide 19

China’s Industry Consolidating & Increasing Self Reliance

4.3 4.8 5.5 6.1 7.08.5

13.7

17.7

22.425.1 26.2

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

2.8 3.44.5

5.66.7

7.89.4

11.312.1 12.7

13.5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

• Growth in alumina capacity

• Rent shift from alumina to metal• Decreasing alumina import

dependency• Rising bauxite dependency?

Alumina production

Metal production

Source: BHP Billiton Aluminium

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Slide 20

China’s Refineries – Capital and Operating Costs

• Why are the Chinese refineries being built?• Induced by substantially higher alumina prices• Capital cost advantage like smelting?

• Some refineries with relatively high Opex?• Imported bauxite and energy costs• Not offset by labour advantage

• What will future capacity & production levels be?• Ongoing imported bauxite availability?• Imported bauxite price?

Source: BHP Billiton Aluminium and China research

Page 21: 060928 Graeme Hunt - JPM Conference - BHP · 2015-06-11 · Alcan Teck Cominco Inco Anglogold Cameco SPCC Impala Peabody Energy Rio Tinto BHP Billiton 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Slide 21

Summary

• The Aluminium CSG remains a key part of the BHP Billiton portfolio and is one of the top aluminium companies in the world

• Record full year results• Margins continue to expand• Benchmark safety performance in the minerals portfolio and

committed to sustainability and zero harm• The China factor continues to be a major influence• BHP Billiton Aluminium objectives for FY07

– Zero Harm– To deliver another record year– To increase the focus on cost containment and predictable operations– To search for value growth opportunities

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