Indicators+of+tree+gene/c+diversity+for+monitoring+status+and+trends+of+forest+gene/c+

resources+and+the+effec/veness+of+ameliora/ve+ac/ons!

Lars!Graudal,!ICRAF!

Tree!Diversity!Day,!10!October!

CBD!COP!12,!2014!

!

Abstract+•  Over!the!last!two!decades!internaDonal!policy!processes!have!created!a!

wealth!of!indicators!to!monitor!the!status!of!biodiversity.!However,!geneDc!diversity!indicators,!are!sDll!largely!absent!from!comprehensive!bioKmonitoring!schemes,!even!though!geneDc!diversity!is!acknowledged!!as!a!major!element!of!biodiversity;!consDtuDng!!the!basis!for!adaptaDon,!

for!ecosystem!funcDoning!and!in!providing!resilient,!producDve!landscapes.!Connected!to!the!State!of!the!Worlds!Forest!GeneDc!Resources!(FAO!2014),!a!framework!for!a!set!of!geneDc!level!indicators!for!trees!is!now!proposed!(Graudal!et!al.!2014).!This!presentaDon!provides!an!introduc/on+to+these+indicators,+their+context+and+interpreta/on+as+well+as+examples+of+the+poten/al+implica/ons+for+the+effec/veness+of+ameliora/ve+ac/ons+related+to+the+conserva/on+and+use+of+tree+gene/c+diversity.!The!proposed!indicators!cover!mulDple!geographical!scales!and!diversity,!producDvity,!knowledge!and!management!(DKPM)!elements;!are!based!on!a!genecological!approach;!can!be!embedded!within!current!

indicator!iniDaDves!of!the!Biodiversity!Indicator!Partnership!(BIP);!and!contribute+to+coherent+strategies+for+management+of+tree+gene/c+resources+in+support+of+sustainable+growth+as+an+integral+part+of+mi/ga/on+and+adapta/on+strategies+for+global+change.+

Outline!

1.  IntroducDon!

–  CBD!and!indicators!–  Progress!and!gaps!–  Interrelated!sets!of!indicators!

2.  Aichi!Target!13!

3.  State!of!the!World’s!Forest!GeneDc!Resources!2014!

–  The!worlds!forests!–  Trees!outside!forests!–  Forest!and!Landscape!restoraDon!opportuniDes!(Aichi!Target!15)!

4.  The!indicators!

–  The!shrinkage!of!species!and!loss!of!diversity!–  The!increase!of!planted!forests!and!producDvity!

5.  Conclusions!

Outline!

1.   Introduc/on+–  CBD+and+indicators+–  Progress!and!gaps!–  Interrelated!sets!of!indicators!

2.  Aichi!Target!13!

3.  State!of!the!World’s!Forest!GeneDc!Resources!2014!

–  The!worlds!forests!–  Trees!outside!forests!–  Forest!and!Landscape!restoraDon!opportuniDes!(Aichi!Target!15)!

4.  The!indicators!

–  The!shrinkage!of!species!and!loss!of!diversity!–  The!increase!of!planted!forests!and!producDvity!

5.  Conclusions!

Overall'framework:'types&of&interrelated&indicators&for&assessing&progress&towards&the&Strategic&Plan&for&Biodiversity&2011:2020&! •  5!Strategic!

Goals!AKD!

•  Aichi!Targets!1K20!

•  12!Headline!indicators!

•  Sets!of!interrelated!

indicators!to!

assess!our!

way!towards!

the!Targets!

UNEP/CBD/AHTEGKSPKInd/1/3!

22!August!2011,!55!pp!

CBD+and+indicators!

What!are!the!implicaDons!!

of!biodiversity!loss?!

How!is!the!status!of!!

biodiversity!changing?!

What!do!we!do!about!!

biodiversity!loss?!

Why!are!we!loosing!!

biodiversity?!

Outline!

1.   Introduc/on+–  CBD!and!indicators!–  Progress+and+gaps+–  Interrelated!sets!of!indicators!

2.  Aichi!Target!13!

3.  State!of!the!World’s!Forest!GeneDc!Resources!2014!

–  The!worlds!forests!–  Trees!outside!forests!–  Forest!and!Landscape!restoraDon!opportuniDes!(Aichi!Target!15)!

4.  The!indicators!

–  The!shrinkage!of!species!and!loss!of!diversity!–  The!increase!of!planted!forests!and!producDvity!

5.  Conclusions!

Overall'framework:'types&of&interrelated&indicators&for&assessing&progress&towards&the&Strategic&Plan&for&Biodiversity&2011:2020&!

•  5!Strategic!Goals!AKD!

•  Aichi!Targets!1K20!

•  12!Headline!

indicators!

UNEP/CBD/AHTEGKSPKInd/1/3!

22!August!2011,!55!pp!

•  12!proposed!deadline!

indicators!

•  97+proposed+opera/onal+indicators+

•  29!operaDonal!

indicators!reported!

2013,!39+by+2014+(BIP)!!!

!

!

!

!

!

!

!

•  Sets!of!interrelated!indicators!to!

assess!our!way!towards!the!Targets!

Progress+and+gaps!

Outline!

1.   Introduc/on+–  CBD!and!indicators!–  Progress!and!gaps!–  Interrelated+sets+of+indicators+

2.  Aichi!Target!13!

3.  State!of!the!World’s!Forest!GeneDc!Resources!2014!

–  The!worlds!forests!–  Trees!outside!forests!–  Forest!and!Landscape!restoraDon!opportuniDes!(Aichi!Target!15)!

4.  The!indicators!

–  The!shrinkage!of!species!and!loss!of!diversity!–  The!increase!of!planted!forests!and!producDvity!

5.  Conclusions!

Aichi+Target+5,+7+and+15++++++++++++++++++++loss+of+habitats,++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++sustainable+management++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++and+restora/on+

Aichi!Target!5,!7!and!15!loss!of!habitats,!!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!sustainable!management!and!restoraDon!

Outline!

1.  IntroducDon!

–  CBD!and!indicators!–  Progress!and!gaps!–  Interrelated!sets!of!indicators!

2.   Aichi+Target+13+3.  State!of!the!World’s!Forest!GeneDc!Resources!2014!

–  The!worlds!forests!–  Trees!outside!forests!–  Forest!and!Landscape!restoraDon!opportuniDes!(Aichi!Target!15)!

4.  The!indicators!

–  The!shrinkage!of!species!and!loss!of!diversity!–  The!increase!of!planted!forests!and!producDvity!

5.  Conclusions!

Aichi!Target!13:!GeneDc!diversity!

•  State!of!the!World’s!Plant!GeneDc!Resources!(1996,!2010)!–!excluding!trees!

•  State!of!the!World’s!Animal!GeneDc!Resources!

(2007,!2015)++•  State!of!the!World’s!Forest!GeneDc!Resources!

(2014)!

•  State!of!the!World’s!AquaDc!GeneDc!Resources!

(yet!to!come)!

•  The!State!of!the!World’s!Biodiversity!for!Food!

and!Agriculture!(2017)!

The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.

Propor/on+of+the+world’s+breeds+reported+to+the+FAO+by++risk+status+category+(2013)++Source:!FAO,!2013!

About!40!species!of!the!50!000!known!avian!and!mammalian!species!

have!been!domesDcated!for!use!in!agriculture!and!food!producDon,!

and!there!are!more!than!8!000!recognized!breeds!

Anna!Chenery,!Heather!Plumpton,!Claire!Brown!and!Maf!Walpole!

(UNEP–WCMC):!The!Aichi!Targets!Passport,!2013!

FAO.!2007.!The&State&of&the&World’s&Animal&GeneAc&Resources&for&Food&and&Agriculture!

!Gene/c+diversity++Indicator:+No.+of+breeds+of++terrestrial+domes/cated+animals!

23+%+at+risk+8+%+ex/nct+

!Gene/c+diversity++Indicator:+Ex+Situ+Crop+Collec/ons+Enrichment+index!

•  An!increase!in!the!index!represents!the!addiDon!of!accessions!to!ex!situ!collecDons.!

•  Pooled!global!dataset!represenDng!2.2!m!accessions!of!7.4!million!(of!

which!30%!disDnct)![of!how!many!species?!Few!thousands?!]!

!FAO’s!Second!Report!on!the!State!of!the!World’s!PGRFA!

7+000X14+000+spp.+in++collec/ons+

40+domes/cated+

300+000++plants+40+000++cul/vated!

50+000+birds+and+mammals+40+domes/cated+

Posi/ve++enrichment+index+

Breeds+at+risk+

35+000+in++MSB+

Outline!

1.  IntroducDon!

–  CBD!and!indicators!–  Progress!and!gaps!–  Interrelated!sets!of!indicators!

2.  Aichi!Target!13!

3.   State+of+the+World’s+Forest+Gene/c+Resources+2014+–  The+worlds+forests+–  Trees+outside+forests+–  Forest!and!Landscape!restoraDon!opportuniDes!(Aichi!Target!15)!

4.  The!indicators!

–  The!shrinkage!of!species!and!loss!of!diversity!–  The!increase!of!planted!forests!and!producDvity!

5.  Conclusions!

•  SoW!FGR!2014!

•  Context:!forests!and!trees,!forestry!

and!agroforestry!

The!foresters’!view!of!the!world!!(Source: CGIAR Consortium research program 6 Forests, trees and agroforestry: Livelihoods, landscapes and governance)

FAO!Forest!Resources!Assessment!

The!agroforestry!view!of!the!world!(Source: CGIAR Consortium research program 6 Forests, trees and agroforestry: Livelihoods, landscapes and governance)

Zomer!et!al!2009,!2014!

The!Tree!GeneDc!Diversity!view!of!the!world!(Source: CGIAR Consortium research program 6 Forests, trees and agroforestry: Livelihoods, landscapes and governance)!Figure.!Global!tree!cover!inside!and!outside!forest,!according!to!the!Global!Land!Cover!

2000!dataset,!the!FAO!spaDal!data!on!farms!versus!forest,!and!the!analysis!by!Zomer!et!

al.!(2009,!2014)!

!

SoW!FGR!2014:!Tree!species!diversity!and!within!

species!variaDon!and!selecDon!

•  Some!70,000!woody!species!exist!(50,000K100,000)!

•  Around!8,000!are!menDoned!in!SoW!FGR!(2014)!

•  Some!2,400!are!reported!as!acDvely!managed!

•  Around!3,000!are!of!known!value!in!!agroforestry!•  Around!700!are!included!in!tree!improvement!programmes!

•  GeneDc!level!informaDon!is!available!for!500K600!species;!240!are!included!in!biotechnology!research!

•  Very!few!are!intensively!bred!•  ConservaDon!status!of!the!geneDc!resources!of!most!species!are!not!well!known!

About!half!of!the!nearly!8000!species!are!reported!as!threatened!

FAO!2014!

25!

Sumatra,!Sundaland!

1900:!16!million!ha!lowland!rainforest!

Pressure!on!forests!and!trees!

26!

27!

28!

29!

30!

31!

32!

1900:!16!million!ha!lowland!rainforest!

2010:!0,5!million!ha!lel!

Pressure!on!forests!and!trees!

Outline!

1.  IntroducDon!

–  CBD!and!indicators!–  Progress!and!gaps!–  Interrelated!sets!of!indicators!

2.  Aichi!Target!13!

3.  State!of!the!World’s!Forest!GeneDc!Resources!2014!

–  The!worlds!forests!–  Trees!outside!forests!–  Forest+and+Landscape+restora/on+opportuni/es+(Aichi+Target+15)+

4.  The!indicators!

–  The!shrinkage!of!species!and!loss!of!diversity!–  The!increase!of!planted!forests!and!producDvity!

5.  Conclusions!

WRI!2011!

Outline!

1.  IntroducDon!

–  CBD!and!indicators!–  Progress!and!gaps!–  Interrelated!sets!of!indicators!

2.  Aichi!Target!13!

3.  State!of!the!World’s!Forest!GeneDc!Resources!2014!

–  The!worlds!forests!–  Trees!outside!forests!–  Forest!and!Landscape!restoraDon!opportuniDes!(Aichi!Target!15)!

4.   The+indicators+–  The!shrinkage!of!species!and!loss!of!diversity!–  The!increase!of!planted!forests!and!producDvity!

5.  Conclusions!

The!proposed!indicators!

State+1.  Trends!in!species!and!populaDon!distribuDon!pafern!

of!selected!species!

2.  Trends!in!populaDon!condiDon!Benefit+3.  Trends!in!plantaDon!performance!of!selected!species!

Response+4.  Trends!in!knowledge!of!geneDc!diversity!of!species!5.  Trends!in!educaDon!and!awareness!6.  Trends!in!sustainable!use!of!tree!geneDc!resources!!7.  Trends!in!geneDc!conservaDon!

1.!Trends!in!

species!and!

populaDon!

distribuDon!

pafern!of!

selected!

species!

3.!Trends!in!plantaDon!

performance!of!

selected!species!

5.!Trends!in!

educaDon!and!

awareness!

7.!Trends!in!

geneDc!

conservaDon!

Trends!in!land!

use!!and!land!

use!change!

2.!Trends!in!

populaDon!

condiDon!

4.!Trends!in!

knowledge!

of!geneDc!

diversity!of!

species!

6.!Trends!in!

sustainable!use!

of!tree!geneDc!

resources!

1.!Trends!in!

species!and!

populaDon!

distribuDon!

pafern!of!

selected!

species!

3.!Trends!in!plantaDon!

performance!of!

selected!species!

5.!Trends!in!

educaDon!and!

awareness!

7.!Trends!in!

geneDc!

conservaDon!

Trends!in!land!

use!!and!land!

use!change!

2.!Trends!in!

populaDon!

condiDon!

4.!Trends!in!

knowledge!

of!geneDc!

diversity!of!

species!

6.!Trends!in!

sustainable!use!

of!tree!geneDc!

resources!

Outline!

1.  IntroducDon!

–  CBD!and!indicators!–  Progress!and!gaps!–  Interrelated!sets!of!indicators!

2.  Aichi!Target!13!

3.  State!of!the!World’s!Forest!GeneDc!Resources!2014!

–  The!worlds!forests!–  Trees!outside!forests!–  Forest!and!Landscape!restoraDon!opportuniDes!(Aichi!Target!15)!

4.   The+indicators+–  The+shrinkage+of+species+and+loss+of+diversity+–  The!increase!of!planted!forests!and!producDvity!

5.  Conclusions!

Species+natural+distribu/on+Van!Breugel,!Kindt,!Lilleso,!Graudal!

Expansion+of+cropland+

Van!Breugel,!Kindt,!Lilleso,!Graudal!

The potential natural vegetation types each represent a species ensemble that occurs under an unique set of environmental conditions. Species often occur in more than one PNV. Do the PNVs represent species provenances? In lieu of other information on a species (which is the case for the majority of species, this may be used as a working hypothesis. Testing of this hypothesis need to address the relative importance of geographic versus environmental distance. Depending on the assumed importance of geographical isolation, one may here operate with a hyphothesis of 7- >10 genecological zones

Prov. 1

Prov. 3

Prov. 4

Prov. 2

Prov. 5 Prov. 2 Prov. 6

Prov. 7

Croton megalocarpus

Van Breugel et al

DistribuAon&of&PNVs&with&Croton&megalocarpus&and&the&percentage&of&that&area&that&has&not&been&converted&(based&on&IASA/IFPRI&global&crop&layer)&

Biased+‘selec/on’++(dysgenic+–+due+to+‘uneven’+expansion+of+cropland)+

Remaining!populaDons!are!likely!to!be!a!biased!sample!of!the!metapopulaDon!before!

large!scale!conversion!commenced.!

Van!Breugel,!Kindt,!Lilleso,!Graudal!

Outline!

1.  IntroducDon!

–  CBD!and!indicators!–  Progress!and!gaps!–  Interrelated!sets!of!indicators!

2.  Aichi!Target!13!

3.  State!of!the!World’s!Forest!GeneDc!Resources!2014!

–  The!worlds!forests!–  Trees!outside!forests!–  Forest!and!Landscape!restoraDon!opportuniDes!(Aichi!Target!15)!

4.   The+indicators+–  The!shrinkage!of!species!and!loss!of!diversity!–  The+increase+of+planted+forests+and+produc/vity+

5.  Conclusions!

Institut for Geovidenskab og Naturforvaltning Brockerhoff et al 2012

The+global+perspec/ve+

The+Bonn+Challenge+Restoring!150!million!hectares!by!2020!could!!sequester!approximately!53!Gt!CO2e!over!the!course!of!50!years!and!reduce!the!annual!

emissions!reducDon!gap!by!between!11!and!20!per!cent!–!as!well!as!injecDng!more!than!US$!80!billion!per!year!into!local!

and!naDonal!economies.!

IUCN!2011,!2014!

Increasing!

producDvity,!carbon!

storage!and!

diversity!in!the!

Danish!forest!estate!

(600!000!ha)!

Scenario+1+–+Pessimis/c+scenario+•  Area!changes!are!assumed!

to!be!half!of!the!predicted!ones!for!Scenario!2,!and!

there!are!no!producDvity!increases.!!

Scenario+2+–+Business+as+usual+•  Area!changes!have!been!

predicted!based!on!past!trends!and!are!assumed!to!conDnue!at!the!same!rate!

unDl!2030.!No!producDvity!increases!

Scenario+3+–+Higher+produc/vity+•  Area!changes!have!been!

predicted!as!in!Scenario!2.,An!annual!producDvity!

increase!has!been!applied!for!management!schemes!where!geneDc,!management!

or!technological!improvements!are!expected.!!

Sources+and+sinks+(Gt/yr)! 1990–1999!

2000–2007!

Sources+(C+emissions)! !! !!

! Fossil!fuel!and!cement! 6.5!±!0.4! 7.6!±!0.4!

! LandKuse!change! 1.5!±!0.7! 1.1!±!0.7!

! Total!sources! 8.0!±!0.8! 8.7!±!0.8!

Sinks+(C+uptake)! !! !!

! Atmosphere! 3.2!±!0.1! 4.1!±!0.1!

! Ocean! 2.2!±!0.4! 2.3!±!0.4!

! Terrestrial+(‘established’+forests)+! 2.5+±+0.4! 2.3+±+0.5!! Total!sinks! 7.9!±!0.6! 8.7!±!0.7!

! Global!residuals! 0.1!±!1.0! 0.0!±!1.0!

Pan!et!al!2011!

Sources+and+sinks+! 1990–1999!

2000–2007!

2010!

Sources+(C+emissions)! !! !! !!

Fossil!fuel!and!cement! 6.5!±!0.4! 7.6!±!0.4! 9.1!

LandKuse!change! 1.5!±!0.7! 1.1!±!0.7! 0.9!

Total!sources! 8.0!±!0.8! 8.7!±!0.8! !!

Sinks+(C+uptake)! !! !! !!

Atmosphere! 3.2!±!0.1! 4.1!±!0.1! 5.0!

Ocean! 2.2!±!0.4! 2.3!±!0.4! 2.4!

Terrestrial+(‘established+forests’)! 2.5+±+0.4! 2.3+±+0.5! 2.6!Total!sinks! 7.9!±!0.6! 8.7!±!0.7! 10!

+Planted+Forests/Trees+!

1.2! 1.4! 1.6!

3.!Trends!in!plantaDon!

performance!of!

selected!species!

5.!Trends!in!

educaDon!and!

awareness!

7.!Trends!in!

geneDc!

conservaDon!

Trends!in!land!

use!!and!land!

use!change!

2.!Trends!in!

populaDon!

condiDon!

4.!Trends!in!

knowledge!

of!geneDc!

diversity!of!

species!

6.!Trends!in!

sustainable!use!

of!tree!geneDc!

resources!

1.!Trends!in!

species!and!

populaDon!

distribuDon!

pafern!of!

selected!

species!

Outline!

1.  IntroducDon!

–  CBD!and!indicators!–  Progress!and!gaps!–  Interrelated!sets!of!indicators!

2.  Aichi!Target!13!

3.  State!of!the!World’s!Forest!GeneDc!Resources!2014!

–  The!worlds!forests!–  Trees!outside!forests!–  Forest!and!Landscape!restoraDon!opportuniDes!(Aichi!Target!15)!

4.  The!indicators!

–  The!shrinkage!of!species!and!loss!of!diversity!–  The!increase!of!planted!forests!and!producDvity!

5.   Conclusions+

Conclusions!

•  Indicators!are!not!just!for!monitoring!but!also!for!

guiding!in!achieving!ambiDous!yet!realisDc!targets:!

•  State!indicators!!are!therefore!imperaDve.!

•  There!is!a!lot!!of!benefit!to!achieve!in!producDvity!and!reselience!from!context!matching!geneDc!diversity!in!

applying!agroforestry!to!FLR!!

•  Indicators!may!be!a!powerful!tool!for!policy!making!

•  (Response:!–  Investment!in!genomics!posiDve!

–  Neglect!of!taxonomy!and!FGR!and!AFGRE!management!

programmes!worrying)!

Thanks!for!listening!