06 12 Locked in Coal Whitepaper

7/29/2019 06 12 Locked in Coal Whitepaper

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Table of Contents

ExEcutivE Summary ES-1

introduction 1

SEction 1:Why coal is a dead man walking in developed contry energy markets 2

ne s es ps he s p 2

cs cs ieses Pe s es 2

SEction 2:

The Rising Cost o Internationally Traded Coal An Emerging OCEC? 5

as p e hee p es 7

SEction 3:

Tata Mndra: A Case Stdy in Coal Price Risks 9

Epese Pe n Pe? 12

SEction 4:

The Potential Impact o Natral Gas Prices on Coal-Fired Generation o Electricity 14

SEction 5:

The Crossover Point Between Coal-fred Generation and Renewable and Efciency Options 17

Ee Ee Ps the chepes Se ne Pe 17

ce reebe Ee ts hep ee 17

concluSion:

A Rational Examination o the Economic Risks o Coal-fred Power Plants 19

acknowlEdgEmEntS:

the Se cb shes h Be Bhe hs epese, e, e hs

ep we s sh h c Ppe hs shs h he hepe he ep

hs ppe i , e beee eee ps te ne, l m, m

Be, m Phps he es pess


3/28ES-1lockEd-in Eee S

execuTiVe SuMMaRy

c -, he h eses

pe, s e he es b hes ths

- ess hh p ss sse

esps sse h -e pe p es-

es oe he ps s es e e se pb

pps, ss, hes

he ee e, - s s-

ess ee he uS he Eu Hee, ees-

se ee s be ses e,

s e s -e ee pb heh

he, ch, i, he ps he eep

whe he ee h heh ps

p eses e es e , he

ps e ths ep ees he e

ss hese eses e es

be s p h ee e u-

es p hese ss es

s p p e he pe

ebe pp s fs h hese be ee es be e

ee ee ee ees the

s s s:

Plant constrction costs are rising and increasingly n-

predictable: oe he ps ee, he uS ese-

hee, p ss he ese b p 100 pee

e eses ppse he s

phse mee, ee he bsee e -

s h ese he s s, eh

es s pes e -e

ee s es he se --e s

pjes h s ese he s

e pjes

Coal prices are volatile, increasing, and less predict-

able: oe se, p he e ps

e he e 40 50 es s s-p s eqees e feb

eps s pe ss ie,

pes he hs bee, e, e

pes eps hese eses he

hs e as pes he ese s

e he ps ee, e se e

pes he s ee shp p. 1 up pe

es e s ee ss he s -

es es es he ue Ses

ch

Political risk from an emerging OCEC is rising: Jss he e e s e b s

be es, s , he e

e s e b js s es h pe

80 pee e e se the p

ep es e as ie-

s e espsbe h 50 pee e-

e se ies hese -

PCCI without Nuclear

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20

Q1 2011

219

180

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

CostIdex

(2000=100)

1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121

Austral ia n C oal U .S. O il

U.S.

Dollars

240

200

0

40

80

120

160

AUSTRALIAN COAL ($/mt)v,

OIL ($/BBL)

20022012

FIGuRE 2: Benchark Astraian Coa Prices s. Cre Oi Prices 2002-2012FIGuRE 1: IHS CERA Coa Pant Capita Costs North Aerica



es e e e se e

pes see e es; ee,

e, s oz c Ep ces

(ocEc)

Reglatory risk and a lack of cost pass-throgh

exacerbates exposre to volatile coal prices: le

se s ps e pe

sppes e he hhes s s pes b i

ee es be es, ch

i, he eepe ps e bes

sh ps, hh e ses epse he

e pe he ee ocEc seee

e he b pss hh ese ss

e es e ses me ss

he e he pesse hs e e-

pes p s, spe as, hee

see e pjes sh s he 4 gw t m

kshp u me Pe Pjes (umPPs)

e seee s

Competing renewable energy sorces are coming

down in price frther increasing market ncertainty:

ms ebe eses p he eeze s e

pe beee 5 10 es/wh3

be he s e -e pe he ue

Ses the se s e s ph (Pv)

he ses ps he uS, hee pees

pe pe pps h he hepes sse s4 i js e e, 2008

2009, he pe s Pv e 50 pee, e

b he 14 pee e 20105 rp s

es hese ehes pse pp

s h e ss e

pe se eses whe hh p epe-

e (cpE) e ee ses e s

e epse e pe (opE) ies-

bs sses h he e eqees

hse p s e e se e he e

40 es ees epse he pse sp-

e ehes e s Pv i essee, he

hesees he ee es ss he

pes es e e es h e

js ee peebe, b s e-

peebe

Coal se is at its lowest point in recent history in the

u.S. and Erope: i he ue Ses, ps 168

e -e pe ps he bee be

he 100 es ps e pe eee

e e p ese ee-

ss h ese sss pps as

es, -e ee hs e s es she

e ee he ps 35 es; the -

b -e ee he uS ppe

34 pee mh 2012, he es h

she se J 19736 i Epe, s she

ee hs ee 394 pee 257

pee e he ps 20 es7 o he 120 -e

pe ps ppse Epe se 2007, h

ze he be he e she

he e s e p i 2011, 71 pee

he e ee p he Epe u s

eebe ee, he 22 pee s s-

e ee

Too Big to Fail coal projects can and shold be

avoided: despe s pe opE e

pje spss e eese pe

, he s s, he s s

es whe p e pjes sees, sh s ee ee eebes,

es e pjes e hse s

es h bs he es Feqe, he ps

ses pee b hese ses eze,

h s ese seqees F epe,

ee bee s he 4 8 (gw)

t m pje i s pee, pes e

hee es hse e s b; e h

pes sh he pe bse he es

he ps ee Hee, t m s b

b -e pe phse eee h eshese ee pes ees e

he ee ess e bs sses

es pss s pe eses e-

e i ses

i , J 2012, he pe he e-

e pee Sp S p nh

d e h pee ee

se p, b e e s

sses he pe9 the pe e

se-h-epee h ee e,

y=0.8804x+20.881

R2=0.6635

1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 1 45 157 169 181 193 205 217 2 29 241

U.S.

Dollars

250

200

0

50

100

150

TREND LINE

MONTHLY AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICES

FEBRUARY 20022012

FOB NEWCASTLE (USD/mt)

FIGuRE 3: Benchark Astraian Coa Price Tren 2002-2012



e pes pe ses he , he ss

e s se se he ps se

s s e s es i he bsee

se e he ee he p, he p-

e hepe se he p e

eeps, ee hh s ep bhes

he ese ss he he p s se

F eqe pe ss

s ee h eees hehe he e-

es e eses e s

pses s - s eep es

the pees he s e

ss, he w B, e

pppe s s i e

pe ee zes es

ee es, s e s he heh ee

h sse h e ps, e ee

he :

Recommendations:

Assme rising coal prices: i p, he

eseebe e, ss sh s-

se h es ss se e-

pes e he e 10 es h

e ss ese he e

es 6 pee pe e ( pee e

h he e f, hhee s ee)

he e he p

Assme accrate discont rates: ipppe

s es se s pjes

h ee hh peees cpE e-

e opE i p, ppses e-

e, ss sh se

s e eq s ppse e e

he pje, s e bse he

s p ssee b he ppe he

pje

Establish a risk premim: F ss

sh ee e he b

he s se be he hs

esbsh s pe eze he s pje e ss-ee pjes bse

he ese he s e e he ee

he p, ps ees -

ee ee e ee pjes,

hee sh ss e pese


6/281lockEd-in i

inTRoducTion

F h he e e s Js e

es s hh h esee

hep -e ee s ebe the 2007

uS n Ee teh lbs (nEtl)

t ree s e Coals Resurgence in Elec-

tric Power Generation e 151 ppse

e ps h pe 90,000 mw e -

e p10 i h se e, he msshses

ise teh (mit) e eese

-sp ee uS ee eses h

s pe hep b ee

ee bse s e e s e he

e mit e b s: We believe that coal

use will increase under any oreseeable scenario be-

cause it is cheap and abundant.11

Hee, he pse esee hep -

e ee pe ee hs e eze

nhee s he e esee -e ee-

e ee h he ue Ses Epe i

he ue Ses, e he pjes pee he 2007 nEtl ep ee b o he 120

-e pe ps ppse Epe se 2007,

h ze he be he e

she he e s e p

a he se e he es ees he

pe the s hs p -

e, e s es h ebe e

pee h ss es spp ee he uS

12 Sbs ee ee s he eee

epe e e h ee

p e ses e c es

se es s ppe spp

ee as es , h ee ee

s, he pe he e she h

he hese se he uS

despe hs ees es, he ees-

he s -e ee ee-

e ps pes s e

e19 i , be s -

e ps, pes hep b -

e ee e s spes s sse

ths ep sees es es b he

h p pes e he ps ee

he hee s sbs e

s eses e he 40 e ee e -

e pe p

THE dISRuPTIvE POTENTIAlOf SOlAR Pv

the es s Pv he p pe

ee es he p h s e

p pe pps he s-

es ps he ue Ses13 F se Pv

hs bee s pee h pees

h he hepes pe ss e he ueSes s c14 ths hs

bee ebe b s es

p eses se p15 i js e

e, 2008 2009, he pe s Pv

e 50 pee, e b he 14 pee

e 201016

the ee e ss es-

ss s epee e s ee

b he se p Pv hs e

22 pee e s17 ass pe-

he se p hee es

beee 2010 2018 ( 40 gw 320

gw), p 53 pee e ss18

these p s es pse pp

s h e ss e

pe se eses ies b-

s sses h he e eqees

hse p s e e se e he

e 40 es ees epse he pse

spe ehes e S Pv i essee,

he hesees he ee esss he s pes es

e e es ess

SPiRiTwood,

noRTh dakoTa

uSa


7/282lockEd-in Se 1: wh c is de m w deepe c Ee mes

why coaL iS a dead Man waLking

in deVeLoPed counTRy eneRgy

MaRkeTS

euRoPean

union

i e 2010 ke Pe, he sse ee

ebe he eee ee deshe

B, s ssee

Coal is a dead man walking, banks wont

fnance them, insurance companies wont

insure them. The EPA is coming ater

them and the economics to make it clean

dont work.

ths see e sze sees

hes h he pee he e he

ue Ses Hee, sses e he eee

s e p ppss espe

sss pps eh ee e

p ppse20 m hese s e s

e b Epe the e e

be

new VS. exiSTing PLanTS and The coST oF

PoLLuTion conTRoL

a p e p he s

ee -e pe ps e he esee ees he uS he Eu s he e he

es fee i he uS sbs j he

-e p e e beee 1968 1988,

he h he -s e p s pp-

e 10 es i Epe s e p ess

the ee e bh e-e ps s

36 es, he he ee e s-e p s

h h21 ae 30-35 es pe -

e ps, e es s ese -

, hs e he b p

(he peee s hee p)

he 22 a sbs p he es fee,

bh he ue Ses Epe ( pes-

b esehee he ) s eh he

e hee pes s ee hehe ee he

es hes s s j

e ees ps

Es ps hs e e -

ze ee s eb

he e s se Hee, e p

be e be, he eee eees s

e he s ss sse h

e ees Fhe, ee eqe-

es sse ps e p e s-

e e s h es s, s p

ss e hhe

F hese ess, h he se es

pe e -e s s s s e

epese h h es -e ps23

ths hs be s he se

e be -e ps he ue

Ses Ee hee he pe hses eb,

he h epe p, see ee he

e ese ss e ee sh pe

e, hs ee hh e ss

the e he uS hs bee ee he se e

he e, e ee s he s se

ess ee s B e ees ps e

e b he e e he se p

e ees s e e esbe F hs

es, ses e s he uS he ee

bee e whe ee ess be se-

h e e ee h he s he epe, he

be ese ee s e se

se he s p he e s

he s hs bee ze as -

seqee, he e p ep

fee -e ps be increase, he h

eese, he s ee ee zes

conSTRucTion coST incReaSeS and PoTenTiaLFoR coST oVeRRunS

d e he s s e -

e pe ps e b e e24 s s

s he e pbshe, se hese efe s-

es hee eee

s e es e es ee ths

s s e espe s-e, s,

ps; hee hese ses he e

s es ess the be ese h

beee 2000 2008, p ss -e



pe-p s h be, h p-

seep pe hes 2005-2008

B 2008 ee ss e ps he uS

h ehe $3,500/w (bee ss e

e), p s e s $1,500/w $1,800/w

200525 a he se e, e ss 13

ee es ( s-

), s pbshe b he ie Ee ae

2010, ee eeee $2,500/w26 Bh he

e he uS es sh h he

ss s e hh be, h epe

eees e h 50 pee s es

F epe uS hs p s $1,355/w

b s hs h s $5,350/w

ths e ep s sees s -

ese ess e ee csss s pe e be e

p, hh he se S Pv ee pes

e s e s e ge he e -

ee jees e ee e , e

s spe e see es hep

e ee es epese

i , eee e s es he bee

epe be pjes hs pe

s pes es se s pe

ps (e, see, ppe) se Fe 427

ses he s e e ppe -

he 1992-2012 e e F e e se pe

ps e t m i (ssse be) e-

ee s s eses ($1000/w)

se sbs es b he pe se pe pbes

a he se e ss he se se, espe

pb pps e -e pe ps hs

, sppe b zes ee -

zs h he ee hee eh pps

e -e p he uS whe pb pp-

s e -e ee se he hh

pb heh, ee e hes pse

b e -e ps, ebes he pb s

ppse hese ps he bss he sbs

e eses he pjes se o he 441 e

1992

M02

1994

M02

1996

M02

1998

M02

2000

M02

2002

M02

2004

M02

2006

M02

2008

M02

2010

M02

2012

M02

$12,000

$10,000

0

$4,000

$2,000

$6,000

$8,000

COPPER PRICES 1992 2012

USD/mt

FIGuRE 4: Goba Copper Price Tren 1992-2012

PCCI without Nuclear

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Q1 2011

219

180

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

Cost

Idex

(2000=100)

FIGuRE 1: IHS CERA Coa Pant Capita Costs North Aerica

COST OvERRuNS fORCEPlANT ClOSuRES

i nebe 2009, ae mp Pe

e h he pjee ss s p-

pse oh p h jpe 37 pee se

he pee m as es, he p

e he pjes pe es

e s eee s p (amP

2009)28

Peb e h he s

s s Pe Se p is h

ese $44 b, e h be he

eses (Hhe 2010)

i J 2012, he pe he ee

pee Sp S p nh

d e h pee

he p, b e e

s sses he pe29 the

pe e se-h-epee h ee e, e pes pe

ses he , he ss e s-

se se he ps se s

s e s es i he bsee

se e he ee he

p, he pe hepe se

he p e eeps, ee hh

s ep bhes he ese

ss he he p s se



ee pjes h he e e he ue

Ses 2011 hs 2012, 6 pjes, ep-

ese 3,372 mw p (16 pee he

e e p 20,776 mw) e -e

these s e e h se b he 24,700

mw ps h he bee spe ee s

e he s -e p-

e b he nEtl30 the nEtl ep

shs pe p hee s e s ees

e 2014, e pjes, he h b

pe seqes es pjes, ee

epe he pe e 2018

as es, he she uS pe ee h

es hs e hs s

the b -e ee he uS

ppe 34 pee mh 2012, he -

es h she se J 197331 whe uS

ee ee s 7 pee deebe

2011 pe deebe 2010, s-e

ee ese b 12 pee d hs pe

-e ee ee b 21 pee ths hs

e ee ee, pe, s

pe e she s he pe ees hs

p ppe

1 99 7 1 99 8 1 99 9 2 00 0 2 00 1 2 00 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 04 2 00 5 2 0 06 2 00 7 2 00 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 01 1

1,150

1,100

800

950

900

850

1,000

1,050

U.S. COAL USE FOR GENERATING ELECTRICITY

(MILLIONS OF TONS)

FIGuRE 5: u.S. Coa Consption or Eectricity Generation32


10/285lockEd-in Se 2: the rs cs ie te c a Ee ocEc?

newcaSTLe,

new SouTh waLeS,

auSTRaLia

The RiSing coST oF inTeRnaTionaLLy

TRaded coaL an eMeRging ocec?

whe e b he ue Ses Epe hs

e ees s pesse pb pps,

e b hh he eep , p-

as hs se n hee,

s s ss, hs se he pe

se s hee he b hese

pjes ths pe se s e e p he e

e beee pes b -

es, epe be B e se pe

ess, s be he es h bes be

esbe s ee oz c Ep-

ces ocEc; e se pes be

e e es b e e

hh pes l he b es pss

he ese e ss, ocEc he e es

e e es ps h e s-

pesse p s, e e s

epse ps, p hse pe as

Se h 2002-2003 e e se

pes, p ps e shppe ses, he se e e p

he se e beee pes the pe

he pe se e e-

es e se b Fe 2, be, hh

ses he h pes ee he mh,

2012 w B c Pe d rep (P

Shee)33 (wB P Shee )

ths e s ee see es

s the s s h sp ss (e

ese e ss) e ebee he s

p , se ses,

epese j he eee pe F

as (he s es epe), he

s sp b he -

es he ep p es $8/

$15/ theee, e sp he p

s p $50/, e b he

sp he ee 34 the se -

s h p se pe s e

SHORT TERm PRICEfluCTuATIONS

as se b Fe 3, pes epeee

eee sh e pe eses eeses

he ps ee, s s $200/

bee ee $60/ he b

he $100/ e i he ps hee

es, e e se

pes he e be he sh e pes

he p ee Sh sh-e s

e be epee s hese e

es esp fs e

e s ths ppe ses,

he sh-e f he e, b

he -e e h s ee he 40 e

e epe e -e ps the -

e he e sh e

es pes, e be he ees p

ees ree eses he hh s

eep e es e ees sh

s Sh a as, iess

ese p ses h hee s es

beee h he -e e s

es pes be eese he -

ees

1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121

Austr alian Coal U.S. Oil

U.S.

Dollars

240

200

0

40

80

120

160

AUSTRALIAN COAL ($/mt)

v,OIL ($/BBL)

20022012

FIGuRE 2: Benchark Astraian Coa Prices s. Cre Oi Prices 2002-2012



ee he hs bee ee pes s

pe bh be see he ees

f as Fe 6 eses, hs ee

ese ee sbe s ees

pes es

Hee, s sh Fe 3, s e h he -

e he 1980s 1990s hs eese Se

2002, as pes he se sbs, s

he pes he he e epes36

a be ess hs sh e pssbe Fs

pes / ees be ee

h he ese s e h he sh ep

he pssbe ss e she hh

e pe Se, p ss be es-

s he eses ( hepes) ses he

e e e e epese

epss s pes ls, s be-

se ess p e, he e

be s ps p e

e e, hee he j pes se -

e pes he se pes (h e

he e oPEc ps he b e)

ce eee he se pe e37

e e p s e h he i-

es ees 2011 es e he ses

pe ies e ses pes

Sh a as38 ths s peee b

he as sse ee p es-

e s ee ps

30 pee e 39 these ess

ee se he b e e hs hh pes h e eee $100/

s

ohe h he p eepe e e

s e s i

ch (ssse be) hee e bs s

h ses h e $30/ pes

s pbbe i s beee h, h

esbshe pe- pes e e

se , he j ep es ee ,

be e , e he -e s ps -

s he ps, espe e he e ee s

he e ees he e eess

iee, he e s se p

epee es, s pe $150/ FoB

nese ps $40/ shpp ss es ppe

be es he e e es F es

-e pe p h -e ee,41 sh

pe ses $7662/mwh $0077/wh

e ss e F e -e pe p h

pe ee,42 he e ss be ee

$68/mwh, b he e eb eq ss s-

se h e s ( 35 4 uS

es/wh s ese ss) ese

he e hese s ee pe b

hs be $100/mwh ($010/wh) these

pes e ee psbe sbs hhe

h se he e eee -e pes

e -e ee ee ss

ths pses ees s be as

es h he ee s e

bes e s ps h e

s ee pe sppes i i, epe, 30 pee he se 700 gw ppee

pjes s se s s e -

e pe these e s ps

h bee pese hep e sppes

n hee, he es s s he b -

be sppes e he e he p

i s p e h bse b

sppes hees he e 70 pee he

ppee i c i le (cil), he se

1 25 49 73 97 121 145 169 193 217 241

100

80

0

20

40

60

U.S.

Dollars

y=-0.041x+39.774

R2=0.1848

TREND LINE

MONTHLY AUSTRALIAN PRICESFEBRUARY 19822002


FIGuRE 6: monthy Astraian Coa Prices1982-200235

y=0.8804x+20.881

R2=0.6635

1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 1 45 157 169 181 193 205 217 2 29 241

U.S.

Dollars

250

200

0

50

100

150

TREND LINE

MONTHLY AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICES

FEBRUARY 20022012


FIGuRE 2: Benchmark Australian Coal Prices vs. Crude Oil Prices 2002-201240



e p pes he s j

es pe ps i ee es hs

bee be ese p ee he -

e he , e ese ees

ps i Feb 2012 he se se

ee he pe s eqes e-

e eeze he ppee pjes bese he

s es e s be ese eqe

spp heee he heh he pje ppee

as ee e cil e s ese

eeze, he resee B i (rBi) e s b

ses bs eeze es e hs s-

esse se the e e hs s

ss h sse es e

p s he espe p

he i b se e hh epse43

these ses s e e sb-

s ese he s es i

aSian iMPoRT deMand ThReaTening PLanT

econoMicS

whe e pe s s es, e se

pe es s be ee he as

es h he he s p he e

e ch i s e he

phs pes F pes eese hee,

h eqe s e p

e, s e he ess

e be

o he e se, he e e s

e eee b s es se ch

whe ch hs hs bee e epe, epeee sh 2009 be he

s es pe, bese ee espe hh

e pes he e, pe s s

ess epese h es sppes47 theee,

chese p e se heeb ee

e e pes, es pes s

RISING COAl PRICES IN THE uNITEd STATES

as Fe 7 shs, he ee e, uS -

es pe es sh he se ee

es pe pe s e se

es F see ees pes ee ee-

sbe s e i 2003, hs pe

eese pes be b p as

h e se pes, e p

hs ese s he ebee s sse

h sp ese ee s-

s he she ese ps he uS

unlke chn nd ind, he uS hs experened

rpd developen o low-os nonvenonlnrl gs spples h hs led o sbsnlly

lower wholesle elery pres nd grely

reded dend or ol insed o hs o-

peon sppressng ol pres, uS ol pres

actually rose44 hrogho he perod45 moreover,

he uS Energy inoron adnsron (Eia)

reenly revsed s projeon or re uS ol

pres ro f o nresng aordng o

he Eia, he pwrd rend o ol pres prr-

ly refes n expeon h os svngs ro

ehnologl proveens n ol nng wll

be oweghed by nreses n prodon oss

ssoed wh ovng no reserves h re

ore osly o ne46 ths, ppers h ol

pres n he uned Ses re nlkely o derese

n wys h wold spr ddonl generon o

elery ro ol

1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

U.S. COAL PRICES

19822010 ANNUAL AVERAGE

FOB MINE MOUTH (chained 2005 dollars)

40

35

0

20

15

10

5

25

30

U.S.

Dollars

FIGuRE 7: u.S. Coa Prices 1982-2010

Indonesia will not change its stance for

Tata Power or any other company...In fact

all the three countries exporting coal have

changed rules in recent times. South Africa,

Australia, and Indonesia are in sync as far

as coal exporting is concerned.

cEo, t Pe



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sees e h ch e s ee ps-

s s e epe 50 ths s

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2009, eh 115 pee sp

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200953

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see z, pjes s-

pes e se 58

53

Single Track

Source: Yang et al. (2009), Wang and Pan (2009) and Energy Research Institute.

Dual Track Pricing Market Pricing

57 65 75 80 82 84 85 86 87 88 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

500

400

0

100

200

300

Pr

ice

(yuan/ton)

AVERAGE MINE MOUTH SALES PRICE

FIGuRE 8: Aerage mineoth Price o Coa Proce in China


14/289lockEd-in Se 3: t m a cse S c Pe rss

TaTa MundRa:

a caSe STudy in coaL PRice RiSkS

MundRa,

gujaRaT,

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the t m pee pess be 2006

h pee e bs se b he

i ee s, pee e

25 e pe es the bs sbe e

2236 rs/wh ($0044/wh) 3746 rs/wh

($0074/wh), efe s ee es-s he e s -e ee60 the

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sp ss be $00047 ce-

hese pes ss pe bse he

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pes e pe hse e b t Pe

s b

ths ppe ep pe h e-

pes be 2017 Hee, he

e-e e as pes es s

hs, pp he eq he e e Fe 3 es FoB pe $179/; $68/

ee h mh 2012, hh

he $0024/wh he e ss eee

hese pe $0086, h be he s

ee he t m pje s

be pe i he e ss ese e he

e e es he se e he he se 2007,

he ese be sh e $7421/

$026/wh, hese pe 88 es pe wh

ue ehe e, he eee e e

be ss eee $010/wh he e

see eh es

i sh be e h hs sss s e

eses sse h he pe es es

efe he he ses eee p

he e sss e ss s e s he

ss sss sb64 the pe

qe he ese p s he pje

eses he s h se p e t Pe

see eses es esee s e-

s a he e t Pes b pes t

Pe, cErc, he iFc, adB, he e bs

e sh he h, js s $1 pe

se s h he ps, s ee he ,

sbe pes he 1970s 1980s nes -

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pe eses h e 200565 the pbshe

pes e se e

ese hs ese

whe see h he he-be -

, s es h hse ee

t Pes b ep he h

sp ss be epee e

sh ees 25 es i s s sps h

i, h s s e-

se s, sh he bee h s pe-

pe b he es he ies ee

he he p es e ess i

h ee se h he s E dbh pj-

e; hs bee qe e espse ss66

s c i h is es s

be pe is eess, hse

e ess See s, hh sh he

1997

MO6

1999

MO6

2001

MO6

2003

MO6

2005

MO6

2007

MO6

U.S

.Dollars

80

70

60

50

0

30

20

10

40

AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICES

JUNE 1997JUNE 2007

FIGuRE 11: Astraian fOB Coa Prices Jne 1997Jne 2007

TATA MUNDRA

COAL PRICE

U.S.

Dolla

rsperton

120

100

0

40

20

60

80

2011 Indonesian

Coal Prices

International Prices

at Time of Bid

Tata Bid

Fuel Costs

FIGuRE 9: Tata mnra Eectricity Price Ipact fro Rising Coa Prices

5 Year

Projected Price

8 Year

Projected Price

Current Price Adjusted

for Coal Price Revisions

Tata Bid

Power Price

TATA MUNDRA WHOLESALE LCOE

10

9

8

7

6

0

2

1

4

3

5

U.S.

Cents/kwh

FIGuRE 10: Tata mnra Eectricity Price (lCOE) Projections



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KOSOvO THE NExT wORld BANK COAl BOONdOGGlE?

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19/2814lockEd-in Se 4: the Pe ip n gs Pes c-Fe gee Ee

The PoTenTiaL iMPacT oF

naTuRaL gaS PRiceS on coaL-FiRed

geneRaTion oF eLecTRiciTy

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2004

MO2

2006

MO2

2008

MO2

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MO2

European U.S.

20

18

16

14

0

4

2

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8

6

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U.S.

Dollars/MMBtu

U.S. AND EUROPEAN GAS PRICES

2002 2012

FIGuRE 12: u.S. an Eropean Natra Gas Prices 2002-2012

FIGuRE 13: worie unconentiona Gas Resorces



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22/2817lockEd-in Se 5: the csse P Beee c-e gee reebe Ee ops

The cRoSSoVeR PoinT BeTween

coaL-FiRed geneRaTion and

RenewaBLe and eFFiciency oPTionS

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