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8/13/2019 04 Rogner World Energy D&S
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2012-03-15
1
IAEAInternational Atomic Energy Agency
World Energy Demand and Supply
H-Holger RognerHead, Planning & Economic Studies Section (PESS)
Department of Nuclear Energy
IAEA
utline
!" Energy system
#" $urrent situation
%" Driers of energy demand
'" Resources & tecnology
" *uture outloo+
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IAEA
coal oil natural gas sunlight uranium wind biomass
coal hydro oil cleaning separation benefication liquef- gasifi-
mine dam rig action cation
hydro thermal power oil nuclear generating photovoltaic wind
station plant refinery station cell converter
What
Nature
Provides
Energy
Sector
What
People
Want
electricity gasoline methanol methane hydrogen heat
Sources
Extraction
Treatment
Conversion
Technologies
Distribution
Service
Technologies
Currencies
(fuels)
Services
electricity grid gas grid truck dewar railway district heat grid
aircraftautomobile light
bulb
telephone furnace microwave
oven
PC
communicationtransportation keeping warm/cold food
health care securitypotable water consumer goods
rcitecture of te Energy System
Efficiency &
Infrastructure
IAEA
coal oil natural gas sunligt uranium ind .iomass
coal hydro oil cleaning separation benefication liquef- gasifi-
mine dam rig action cation
ydro termal poer oil nuclear generating potooltaic ind
station plant refinery station cell conerter
Primary
energy
Secondary
energy
Energy
serices
electricity gasoline metanol metane ydrogen heat
Sources
Extraction
Treatment
Conversion
Technologies
Distribution
Service
Technologies
Currencies
(fuels)
Services
electricity grid gas grid truck dewar railwaydistrict heat
grid
aircraftautomo.ile ligt
bulb
teleponefurnace microae
oven
PC
communicationtransportation +eeping arm/cold food
ealt care securitypota.le water consumer goods
rcitecture of te Energy System
*inal
energy
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IAEA
*irst 0a of 1ermodynamics2 Energy
conseration
169 EJ
144 EJ
22 EJ
161 EJ
496 EJ
Primary 496 EJ
Waste and rejectedenergy
Secondary 352 EJ
Final 330 EJ
Useful 169 EJ
Crude Oil
Examples
Coal
Gasoline Electricity
Gasoline Electricity
Kinetic Radiant
Truck Grid
Car Light Bulb
Passenger-km Light
Energy
Conversion
Distribution
End use
Services
Refinery Power Plant
IAEA
Recent callenges and orrisome trends
Economic concerns ae focused attention on sort-term energy security to te detriment of longer termsustaina.le deelopment o.3ecties
Post-*u+usima, a .umpy road aead for nuclear
poer 4EN turmoil raised 5uestions a.out region6s
inestment plans
Some +ey trends are pointing in orrying directions2
CO2 emissions rebounded to a record high (2010)
Energy efficiency of global economy worsened for 2nd
straight year
Spending on oil imports is near record highs
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IAEA
7lo.al primary energy supply, !89 -#998
9
!99
#99
%99
'99
99
:99
!89 !8; !
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IAEA
7lo.al primary energy supply, !
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IAEA
Historical car.on intensity of energy supplies
k
O
2/GJ
12
1
!
"
#
2
1!$ 1!%$ 1& 1&2$ 1&$ 1&%$ 2
all '( carriers and CO2emissionsw/o biomass CO
2)but including biomass GJ*
biomass 112 kg CO2/GJ
coal +" kg CO2/GJ
oil %,+, kg CO2/GJ
gas $"+1 kg CO2/GJ
IAEA
$ar.on emissions
9
)
!9
!)
#9
#)
%9
%)
!
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IAEA
Structure of glo.al primary energy supply
1otal primary energy
supply (1PES) in #99
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IAEA
Structure of glo.al final energy use, #99/
yr
Residential:1. Rapid introduction of
strict building codes2. Accelerate retrofit rate
to 3% of stock peryear (x 4 improvementby 2050)
3. Improved electricalappliances
Residential:1. Rapid introduction of
strict building codes2. Accelerate retrofit rate
to 3% of stock peryear (x 4 improvementby 2050)
3. Improved electricalappliances
Transport:1. Technology
efficiency (50%)2. Reduced private
mobility (eg urbanplanning)
3. Infrastructure forpublic transport +railway freight
Transport:1. Technology
efficiency (50%)2. Reduced private
mobility (eg urbanplanning)
3. Infrastructure forpublic transport +railway freight
IAEA
AE nuclear poer pro3ections (RDS-!)
Pro3ections of future role of nuclear poer arepresented as 0W and HA7H estimates
Pro3ections are N1 predictions
1e RDS-! estimates sould .e ieed as erygeneral grot trends ose alidity must .econstantly su.3ected to critical reie
Economic grot and structural economic cange
Energy intensity
1ecnology performance and costs
Energy resource aaila.ility and future fuel prices
Energy policy and pysical, enironmental and economicconstraints"
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IAEA 85
$urrent status of glo.al nuclear poer
'%' NPPs operating(%:;": 7We)
:% NPPs underconstruction (:!"9 7We)
CS !9' (!)
*rance 8 (!)
>apan 9 (#)
Russia %% (!9)
$anada !8 Oorea #! ()
Andia #9 (:)
$ina !: (#:)
As of 31 December 2011
IAEA
Nuclear poer today
n %! Decem.er #9!!, '' nuclear poer plants (NPPs)operated in %9 countries orldide, it a totalinstalled capacity of %:8"# 7We"
KWere doesnuclearpoer go
from ereQL
9
9
!99
!9
#99
#9
%99
%9
'99
!
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IAEA
$urrent status of glo.al nuclear poer
Units in Operation: 434367.6 GWe
Units under construction: 6361.0 GWe
Source: IAEA PRIS
Status: 31 December 2011
LatinAmerica
0.9%
NorthAmerica
28.6%
WesternEurope27.6%
Eastern
Europe/$AS15.7%
South
East5.3%
MiddleEast0.2%
FarEast
21.2%
Africa0.5%
LatinAmerica
3.1%
NorthAmerica
1.5%
WesternEurope
3.1%
EasternEurope/CIS
26.2%
South East10.8%
Far East55.4%
IAEA
$onstruction starts
9
!9
#9
%9
'9
9
no"
ofconstru
ctions
tarts
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IAEA
9
!9
#9
%9
'9
9
no"
ofconstructions
tarts
$onstruction starts
IAEA
Post *u+usima2 Cncanged driers .eind terenaissance in te interest in nuclear poer
7lo.al energy demand is set to gro4uclear power e+pands supply options
Enironmental pressures are rising4uclear power has low life,cycle "5" emissions
Energy supply security .ac+ on te politicalagenda4uclear power contributes to energy security
Relia.le .ase load electricity at predicta.le andafforda.le costs for meeting 4D7s4uclear power offers stable and predictablegeneration costs based on low resource costs
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IAEA
AE G 0W pro3ection
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
history
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
20102011
7W(e)
#9%92 Nuclear sare in glo.al electricity generation2 !!"8@
IAEA
AE G HA7H pro3ection
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
history
20052006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
7W(e
)
#9%92 Nuclear sare in glo.al electricity generation2 !'"9@
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IAEA
AE2 0o Nuclear $ase - ssumptions
E$D2 No ne .uilds .eyond tose already under
construction
Non-E$D2 nly 9@ ne .uilds compared it te
Ne Policy Scenario
Sorter life times for e=isting plants (' s 9 years)and ne .uilds (9 s years)
$ase deeloped to e=plore te implications of a lo
nuclear future
IAEA
0o Nuclear $ase - Amplications
?y #9# glo.al nuclear generating capacity slips to %#9 7W
(#9!92 %; 7W NPS2 :9 7W)
Nuclear6s mar+et sare drops to ;@ (NPS2!%@)
7ies a .oost to coal, gas and renea.les (in tat order), .ut
increases import .ills, reduces diersity & ma+es it arder tocom.at climate cange
?y #9%, compared it te Ne Policies Scenario2
coal demand increases .y tice ustralia6s steam coal e=ports
natural gas demand increases .y to-tirds Russia6s natural gas net
e=ports
poer- sector $# emissions increase .y :"#@ of 9"< 7t $#
?iggest implications are for countries it limited energy
resources tat planned to rely on nuclear poer
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$oncluding remar+s
Rising incomes & population ill accelerate te demand for
energy serices
il supply diersity is diminising, ile ne options are opening
up for natural gas
7lo.ally, energy resources are plentiful and pose no limiting
constraint G .ut timely inestment re5uired
0ess nuclear ould lead to iger $# emissions, increased
energy prices and groing energy import .ills
Energy conersion tecnologies ill .ecome increasingly capital
intensie
Despite steps in te rigt direction, te door to #$ is closing
IAEA
AE
6atoms for peace'
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$urrent status of glo.al nuclear poer
Units in Operation: 434367.6 GWe
Units under construction: 6361.6 GWe
Source: IAEA PRIS
Status: 6 December 2011
LatinAmerica
0.9%
NorthAmerica
28.6%
WesternEurope27.6%
EasternEurope/CI
S15.7%
South
East5.3%
MiddleEast0.2%
FarEast
21.2%
Africa0.5%
LatinAmerica
3.1%
NorthAmerica
1.5%
WesternEurope
3.1%
EasternEurope/CIS
26.2%
South East10.8%
Far East55.4%