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Futu
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For a free subscription or additional information:
Catherine Kargas: [email protected]
Pierre Ducharme: [email protected]
!03/01/14
“I’m certain that none of the horse and carr iage guys b e c a m
e p r o v i d e r s o f automobiles” says Michael (Mik) Harr
ison-Ford, Chief S t rategy Of f icer at zoox (zoox.co), discussing
how automobile manufacturers today are having difficulty moving too
far away from their current thinking. That’s where z o o x c o m e
s i n : d e s i g n , engineering and creativity w i t h o u t t h
e b o u n d a r i e s imposed by existing platforms. Approximately
three months ago, Tim Kentley-Klay, the o r g a n i z a t i o n ’ s
f o u n d e r, f o r m a l i z e d z o o x - a n organization that
aims to develop “mobility for our time”. Mik explains that in 2050,
nearly 70% of the world’s population will live in urban areas.
In
Europe and North America, that percentage is expected to be even
h igher. New mobility solutions are required to a l lev iate the
growing p res su res o f conges t ion , pollution and lack of
parking in urban areas. For the team at zoox, FULLY autonomous
(Level 4 , as defined by NHTSA) vehicle technology is the solution
to alleviating the mobility strain b e i n g p l a c e d o n c i t
i e s . “ A u t o n o m o u s v e h i c l e technology will take us
to a new form of mobility, enabling point to point, mixed mode,
on-demand mobility service”, states Mik. To bring their vision to
market, zoox w i l l be deve lop ing s t r a t e g i c a l l i a n
c e s w i t h complementary organizations
p r o v i d i n g t e c h n o l o g y , components and
materials. In seeking for an autonomous technology provider, the
zoox team has met with Google as well as other organizations that
have shown interest . T im Kentley-Klay reached out to A n t h o n
y L e v a n d o w s k i (Google) about a year ago a n d e v e r s i
n c e , s e v e r a l conversations have taken place with
representatives of the Google team. The team at zoox share many of
the safety concerns being
Issue 14.01
zoox: Thinking outside the box
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://zoox.comailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://zoox.co
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e x p r e s s e d b y s e v e r a l au tonomous techno logy
experts regarding Level 3 autonomy. Mik underl ines s a f e t y i s
s u e s r e l a t e d t o handover scenarios and the strong
potential for diminishing driver capabilities over time. The zoox
team (and we, at MARCON, strongly agree) sees the real value of
autonomous technology at Level 4. Level 3 may add convenience but
it d o e s n ’ t f u n d a m e n t a l l y change mobility AND it
may or may not improve safety. Level 4, however, al lows for a
complete change of business models and holds the promise f o r i n
c r e a s e d s a f e t y , accessibility to those unable to drive,
reduced congestion, fluidity of circulation, and …the penetration
of electric vehicles with a significant impact on pollution
reduction. (Aaahh …It’s wonderful to find like-minded individuals
☺) As has been stated by EDF (Électricité de France) as well a s o
t h e r r e p u t a b l e organizations around the world,
autonomous vehicle technology is an enabler for e l e c t r i f i c
a t i o n o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . T o d a y , consumers
purchase vehicles to meet all of their needs - even the rare
occasions where they need to driver over 500 km. For those
situations, the electric vehicle is not ideal …yet. However, in a
context where consumers USE (not p u r c h a s e ) v e h i c l e s
o n demand, the electric vehicle is perfect for almost all trips.
The large majority of our trips fall wel l with in the range of
today’s electric vehicles. With a fully autonomous EV, the user
n e e d n o t w o r r y a b o u t charging, range etc as the
vehicle is programmed to charge between uses and not to undertake a
voyage that exceeds its range. It is also programmed to park in
areas that do not require payment for parking. Just as many of the
OEMs are o p e r a t i n g c a r - s h a r i n g programs around
the world, the vision of zoox is that fully autonomous urban
mobility will b e c o m p o s e d o f f l e e t operations of
on-demand service. In this context, Mik explains, that the “cost of
the vehicle over its lifetime is what i s most impor tant …and
electric vehicles make most sense in this scenario.” With respect
to the thorny issue of product liability and insurance, Mik feels
that Level 4 is relatively simple compared to Level 3. He believes
that Level 3, particularly hand-offs, is a grey zone with much p o
t e n t i a l f o r l i t i g a t i o n . A c c o r d i n g t o M i
k , “ t h e manufacturer should take on the liability and insurance
s h o u l d b e p a r t o f t h e membership service fees” that
would be charged to user-members of the autonomous vehicle-sharing
programs. He’s optimistic that “we’ll find a way through the legal
issues because it’s difficult to refute the case for driverless
cars”. Mik is also optimistic about the technology’s adoption. He
expects a rapid penetration once it becomes available, as users
will see its many benefits.
So when can you expect to see a zoox vehicle riding potentially
on a street near you? The target is 2021 but Mik explains that in
conversations that the zoox team has had with autonomous technology
developers, that date is far too conservative. In fact, “almost
everyone [the zoox team has] spoken with has concluded that the
technology available today meets 95% of the driving task. It’s the
other 5% that they need to get right.” Mik explains that technology
providers are confident with how the technology performs in lower
speed urban “driving” and highway “driving”. The distances between
city and highway driving are more challenging but much has already
been accomplished and there’s nothing to stop the “experts” from
mastering that last 5%. Mik and his team have much t o d o u n t i
l c o m m e r c i a l p r o d u c t l a u n c h . T h e i r
immediate concern is “getting the right team together with the
talent required to move forward”. The 2014 objectives include
announcing the zoox “team and partners and p r o t o t y p i n g a
s s o o n a s possible after that”. We thank Mik for taking the
time to share his thoughts with us and wish the zoox team m u c h s
u c c e s s . W e w i l l certainly keep you updated on their
progress. In the meantime, a bit of news: zoox will be unveiling a
new vehicle design at the 3D Printing World Expo in California
(http://www.3dpr in terwor ldexpo.com) January 31-February 1,
2014.
Pour abonnement gratuit ou plus d’information :
Catherine Kargas: [email protected]
Pierre Ducharme: [email protected]
zoox: Thinking outside the box
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‣ Race to bring driverless cars to road takes mark in 2014
http://globalnews.ca/news/1056103/race-to-bring-driverless-cars-to-roads-takes-mark-in-2014/
‣ Renault shows off Urban Mobility Advanced Platform
prototype
Another confirmation of MARCON’s future mobility model:
electric, shared, autonomous.
http://www.worldcarfans.com/113123068080/re n a u l t - s h o w s -
o f f - t h e i r - u r b a n - m o b i l i t y
-advanced-platform
‣ Renault showcases PAMU self -driving technology
http://www.motoroids.com/news/renault-showcases-pamu-self-driving-technology/
‣ Smartphone manufacturers racing to acquire vehicle patents
Apple and Google forging ties with automakers to develop various
vehicle technologies such as infotainment platforms and autonomous
driving systems.
http://envisionip.com/blog/2013/12/31/smartphone-manufacturers-racing-to-acquire-smart-vehicle-patents/
© MARCON Management Consultants Inc. 2013
In the news ‣ IHS Automotive: Self-driving cars to jolt
market by 2035 IHS predicts nearly 54 million SDCs by 2035 but a
slower introduction of fully automated vehicles.
http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20131231/AUTO01/312310086/1148/auto01/Study-Self-driving-cars-jolt-market-by-2035
‣ 2013: Year of the Autonomous Car h t t p : / / w w w . p c m a
g . c o m /article2/0,2817,2428697,00.asp
‣ Snyder signs bills allowing driverless vehicles in
Michigan
‣ Look to CES 2014 for more autonomous tech
http://ces.cnet.com/8301-35289_1-57615940/ces-2014-wil
l-showcase-the-near-future-of-driving/
‣ Electric car vending machine: China’s future mobility?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrogowsky/2013/12/28/kandi-crush-an-electric-car-vending-machine-from-china-could-upend-the-auto-industry/
MARCON vous souhaite : Santé, Bonheur, Succès
MARCON wishes you: Health, Happiness,
Success
“By 2025, driverless cars will be in widespread operation, which
could revolutionize individual mobility … This will enable people
to drive until an old age, fuel efficiency will increase, and
accidents will be reduced to close to zero.”
HSBC report
