18
EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM / Aluminium Outlook: Finish Aluminium Days 2016, Gerd Götz Market insights and Looking ahead

03 2016-10 Finish Aluminium Days · Primary aluminium market in the world: Production, consumption and global balance A balance market for 2016(f) with slightly higher surplus for

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    0

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: 03 2016-10 Finish Aluminium Days · Primary aluminium market in the world: Production, consumption and global balance A balance market for 2016(f) with slightly higher surplus for

EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM

/ Aluminium Outlook:Finish Aluminium Days 2016, Gerd Götz

Market insights and Looking ahead

Page 2: 03 2016-10 Finish Aluminium Days · Primary aluminium market in the world: Production, consumption and global balance A balance market for 2016(f) with slightly higher surplus for

EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM

1

/ Facts and Figures

Page 3: 03 2016-10 Finish Aluminium Days · Primary aluminium market in the world: Production, consumption and global balance A balance market for 2016(f) with slightly higher surplus for

EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM

Who we are1

Founded in 

1981European Aluminium represents the entire value chain of the aluminium industry in Europe 

1million +Direct and indirect jobs across Europe’svalue chain

Europe produces

16%of worldwidealuminium, half of which fromrecycled sources 

An innovative value chain serving EU key markets

€38 Billion annual turnover

80+members

approx.600 plants

in 30 European countries (EU 28, EFTA and Turkey)

90%of aluminium isrecycled in construction and automotive in Europe

3

Page 4: 03 2016-10 Finish Aluminium Days · Primary aluminium market in the world: Production, consumption and global balance A balance market for 2016(f) with slightly higher surplus for

EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM

Overview aluminium industry in Europe1

More than 600 aluminiumplants (by installed capacity*)

4

* Source : European Aluminium Statistics, April 2015

Page 5: 03 2016-10 Finish Aluminium Days · Primary aluminium market in the world: Production, consumption and global balance A balance market for 2016(f) with slightly higher surplus for

EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM

Mission

Engage with European decision makers to create a sustainable business climate for the aluminium industry in Europe

Promote aluminium as an innovative and sustainable material for the future of Europe

Be the voice of aluminium in Europe

1

5

Page 6: 03 2016-10 Finish Aluminium Days · Primary aluminium market in the world: Production, consumption and global balance A balance market for 2016(f) with slightly higher surplus for

EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM

2

/ Aluminium markets

Page 7: 03 2016-10 Finish Aluminium Days · Primary aluminium market in the world: Production, consumption and global balance A balance market for 2016(f) with slightly higher surplus for

EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM

Primary aluminium market in the world:Production, consumption and global balance

A balance market for 2016(f) with slightly higher surplus for 2017(f)…

7

2

ktonnes 2014 2015 2016(f) 2017(f)

Production 54 095 57 114 58 967 61 792

Consumption 54 084 56 485 59 108 61 248

Balance / surplus 11 629 ‐141 544

Chinese production:2016 (f): 32 063 kt2017 (f): 34 056 kt

Rest of the world production:

2016 (f): 26 904 kt 2017 (f): 27 736 kt

Page 8: 03 2016-10 Finish Aluminium Days · Primary aluminium market in the world: Production, consumption and global balance A balance market for 2016(f) with slightly higher surplus for

EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM

Recycling: refining + remelting in EuropeScrap intake statistics

Continuous growth for H1 2016 with differences between sectors…

8

2

7 546 kt

2015 data

Source: European Aluminium, data for EU+EFTA * Casting and wrought alloys

H1 2016: + 2.0% ytd

Total scrap intake (kt)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Q1 1 734 1 727 1 888 1 965 2 006Q2 1 757 1 773 1 900 1 993 2 031Q3 1 594 1 667 1 730 1 774 -Q4 1 596 1 696 1 743 1 813 -

Year 6 681 6 862 7 261 7 546 4 036 Growth

(yoy)2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Q1 - -0,4% 9,3% 4,1% 2,1%Q2 - 0,9% 7,2% 4,9% 1,9%Q3 - 4,5% 3,8% 2,6% -Q4 - 6,3% 2,8% 4,0% -

Year - 2,7% 5,8% 3,9% -

Page 9: 03 2016-10 Finish Aluminium Days · Primary aluminium market in the world: Production, consumption and global balance A balance market for 2016(f) with slightly higher surplus for

EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM

Flat Rolled Products:shipments to Europe (2000‐2017, '000 tonnes)

2

Market Volume

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Q1 1152.3 1216.0 1213.9 1252.7 1274.8Q2 1194.4 1238.8 1268.3 1301.7 1323.9Q3 1157.7 1203.7 1258.0 1294.6 1320.6Q4 1084.9 1111.1 1194.4 1202.6 1229.5Year 4589.3 4769.6 4934.6 5051.6 5148.8

 Growth (yoy)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Q1 3.3% 5.5% ‐0.2% 3.2% 1.8%Q2 4.4% 3.7% 2.4% 2.6% 1.7%Q3 0.9% 4.0% 4.5% 2.9% 2.0%Q4 0.6% 2.4% 7.5% 0.7% 2.2%Year 2.3% 3.9% 3.5% 2.4% 1.9%CARG 10/'00 10/'05 16/'10

1.1% 0.1% 2.9%

Page 10: 03 2016-10 Finish Aluminium Days · Primary aluminium market in the world: Production, consumption and global balance A balance market for 2016(f) with slightly higher surplus for

EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM

Extrusion & tube shipments in Europe*in ‘000 tonnes

10

2

*EU25+EFTA until 2007, EU27+EFTA from 2008Based on end uses annual data, adjustments for Spain since 2007, historical trends 2001‐2006 using old Spanish end use data

Key figures:Shipments in:• EU+EFTA : 2 949 kt

• Scandinavia: 200 kt

Volumes by end uses in Europe

Main aluminium market in Europe

34%

11%

10%

Scandinavia: 6%

Page 11: 03 2016-10 Finish Aluminium Days · Primary aluminium market in the world: Production, consumption and global balance A balance market for 2016(f) with slightly higher surplus for

EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM

Extrusion & tube shipments in Europe*forecasts (in %)

11

2

*EU25+EFTA until 2007, EU27+EFTA from 2008Based on end uses annual data, adjustments for Spain since 2007, historical trends 2001‐2006 using old Spanish end use data

Central & Eastern countries: +2.9%

Scandinavia: +1.4%

2016 forecastsTotal Europe: +1.6%

Central & Eastern countries: +1.3%

Scandinavia: +1.6%

2017 forecastsTotal Europe: +1.2%

Page 12: 03 2016-10 Finish Aluminium Days · Primary aluminium market in the world: Production, consumption and global balance A balance market for 2016(f) with slightly higher surplus for

EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM

Extrusion in EuropeFocus on Finnish trade data

12

2

Total exports in 2015: 11.4 kt (‐9%)• Main partners: SW, DE, DK, ES, NO• 5 countries 90% of exports

Total imports in 2015: 7.6 kt (+8%)• Main partners: SW, DE, DK, IT• 4 countries 71% of imports

Page 13: 03 2016-10 Finish Aluminium Days · Primary aluminium market in the world: Production, consumption and global balance A balance market for 2016(f) with slightly higher surplus for

EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM

3

/ Working together

Page 14: 03 2016-10 Finish Aluminium Days · Primary aluminium market in the world: Production, consumption and global balance A balance market for 2016(f) with slightly higher surplus for

EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM

Being a member means…

… being part of an EU wide industry network• Network opportunities with peer industry colleagues• Receive support in European lobby efforts that benefit our industry

… shaping the future of our industry• Be part of the Sustainability Roadmap to 2025• Influence our strategy and positions

… access to global expertise• Have access to credible industry resources, studies and updates• Keep up to date with European support programmes

… driving the industry agenda• Participating in development and best practices• Get active in working groups and committees

… increasing your visibility• Leveraging our PR activities

3

Page 15: 03 2016-10 Finish Aluminium Days · Primary aluminium market in the world: Production, consumption and global balance A balance market for 2016(f) with slightly higher surplus for

EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM

Membership benefits

Receive market andpolitical intelligencethrough

Guide our work through

Expand your network by

• Our aluminium statisticsdatabase

• Our weekly recaps on burning topics in the industry and …

• Our members’ database, extranet, meeting calendar and many other resources

• All our publications

• Individual advice

• Having your say on our advocacy work towards the EU institutions, standardization bodies and various stakeholders

• Direct contact with ourexperts

• Direct participation in our horizontal committees, specific working groups and the possibility to become a member of our market groups (packaging, automotive & transport, building)

• Joining an association covering all segments of the sector’s value chain

• Taking part in the industry’s events, including the European Aluminium spring and autumn meetings, the biannual recycling congress, EHS workshop and the Packaging seminar

• Connecting with the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), Eurometaux (the European Non‐Ferrous Metals association) and other multi‐sectorial alliances and national aluminium associations

3

Page 16: 03 2016-10 Finish Aluminium Days · Primary aluminium market in the world: Production, consumption and global balance A balance market for 2016(f) with slightly higher surplus for

EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM

Examples of our work

Participation of EU Commissioner Karmenu Vella 

at the European Aluminium event

Promoting the importance of aluminium industry on the European 

level

3

Page 17: 03 2016-10 Finish Aluminium Days · Primary aluminium market in the world: Production, consumption and global balance A balance market for 2016(f) with slightly higher surplus for

EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM

Examples of our work

17

Strategy/Social Media Campaigns/Newsletters

Publications & Brochures

Industry & public stakeholder events

Access to various networks

Market Intelligence

Innovation

3

Page 18: 03 2016-10 Finish Aluminium Days · Primary aluminium market in the world: Production, consumption and global balance A balance market for 2016(f) with slightly higher surplus for

EUROPEAN ALUMINIUM

Avenue de Broqueville 12 ‐ 1150 Brussels, BelgiumPhone +32 2 775 63 63Email gotz@european‐aluminium.euwww.european‐aluminium.eu

/Questions? Contact us!