02-FHwA-HEADSUP- Managerial Eco

7/30/2019 02-FHwA-HEADSUP- Managerial Eco

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HEADS UP

HurricaneEvacuation

Analysis andDecision

SupportUtilityProgram


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HEADS UP Home Page


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HEADS UP

Next generation version of the

Emergency TransportationInformation System (ETIS) Program

Dynamic Hourly Travel Demand

Forecasting

Integrated Traffic Counter Data

Ingestion and Analysis

Hourly Traffic Queue Length Estimation

Host Shelter Demand Estimation

Evacuation Shutdown Calculation


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HEADS UPDynamic Hourly Travel Demand

ForecastingSimulates a gradual loading of evacuation

road network based on behavioralsurveys

Calculates dynamic clearance timesbased on specific storm scenario

Provides dynamic hourly critical link databased on specific storm scenario For entire state

For entire roadway length (I 75, US 231, SR 60)

Cumulative hourly evacuating vehicle and

population data (in and out-of county) forall risk counties


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HEADS UP Data Input


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HEADS UP County Report


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HEADS UP


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ETIS Loading Curve


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HEADS UP Loading Curves


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HEADS UP 6 hours


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HEADS UP 12 Hours


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HEADS UP 18 Hours


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HEADS UP 24 Hours


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HEADS UP 30 Hours


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HEADS UP 36 Hours


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HEADS UP 42 Hours


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Dynamic Hourly Travel Demand

Forecasting

Max commute time per link or destination

Reverse lane impact determination

Link construction designation capability

Sensitivity analysis for phased

evacuations

Evaluation of clearance time impacts ofroad closures and detours

Re-routing analysis

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Integrated Traffic Counter DataIngestion and AnalysisAutomatically ingest real time traffic

counter data for DOT website

Traffic Volume Hourly Average Speed Hourly

Historical Hourly Average Volumes

Dynamic compare and contrast analysis

between demand forecast and counterdata

Capability key to queue lengthcalculation and evacuation shutdown

functions

DOT T ffi C t W b it


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DOT Traffic Counter Website

DOT T ffi C t D t


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DOT Traffic Counter Data

DOT T ffi C t D t


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DOT Traffic Counter Data

C t D t C i


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Counter Data Comparison


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Hourly Traffic Queue Length Estimation

Determine length of traffic queue for eachcriticallink

Graphic depiction of queue length onprogram map

Host Shelter Demand Estimation

Host shelter determination for every countyin the state

Predict number of vehicles and peopleentering host county by roadway

Calculation of time to first arrival ofevacuation vehicles and peak vehicle

volume based on traffic counter data


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Evacuation Shutdown Calculation

Based on hourly average speed data fromreal-time traffic counters

Determine which interchange andupstream roadway traffic should be

diverted to avoid adding to queue Icon on map that shows average speed

thresholds at each counter locationproviding indication of possible queue

Map based data input and model results

Coupled with remote statewide meso-scale weather monitoring system (FAWN,

DOT and other future met stations)

HEADS UP D t M


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HEADS UP Data Map


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FAWN


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HEADS UP - Operational Uses

Scenario building to test various

evacuation strategies and assumptions

Non Event:

For scenario development during

training events and exercises;

Testing various strategies and options in

developing regional plans; and

General contingency planning.


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Scenario building to test various

evacuation strategies and assumptions

During actual events: Investigate options for deploying law

enforcement and traffic managementresources;

Assess impact of reverse lane options;

Study clearance time and operationalbenefits of phased evacuations; and

Analyze effects of evacuationassumptions (e.g., shadow evacuations,in-county sheltering, etc.); and

Anticipate exigent circumstances.


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Real-time monitoring of evacuation

progress and shelter demand

Automatic TTMS ingestion capability

allows user to:

Monitor average volume and speeds oncritical and strategic links;

Relate observed values against predictedvolumes to assess progress and

effectiveness of overall evacuation andtraffic management efforts;

Calculate realistic estimates of potentialshelter demand and arrival timing of

evacuees for host counties;


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Real-time monitoring of evacuation

progress and shelter demand

Automatic TTMS ingestion capability

allows user to:

Realize more rapidly accidents and othercircumstances that cause or worsencongestion; and

Obtain better appraisals of actual

participation rates and assess theeffectiveness of public informationefforts.


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Implementation of Evacuation Measures

and Sustaining Operations

Emergency Management

Regional and multi-regional clearance

timesEvacuation decision making and

coordination

Designation and preparation of hostshelter counties

Evacuation shutdown decision making

and coordination


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Traffic Operations

More effective deployment of law

enforcement resources Pre-stage personnel and materiel to

predicted critical links throughout the entire

evacuation event

Use time-based, most congested link data to

develop rerouting schemes to divert traffic

away from expected congested segments

S O


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Traffic Operations

More effective deployment of law

enforcement resources Determine duration of deployment and

possible shifts needed

Designate operational sectors and

responsibilities for entire state

Anticipate routine and other reporting

requirements between field and Emergency

Operations Centers

HEADS UP O i l U


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Traffic Operations

Implementation of traffic management

measures tailored to situation Pre-stage and continue deployment of

highway incident management teams based

on service to volume ratios and TTMS data

Deploy ITS resources (i.e., VMS, AM-radios,HAR) for most effective coverage based on

service to volume ratios

Analyze options and coordinate operations

for reverselaning and re-routing

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Traffic Operations

Evacuation Shutdown

Determine lead times needed to closeinterchanges and clear congested roadways

based on TTMS average speed data and

queue length function

Identify interchanges and alternate routes to

clear roadway and reduce queues using

queue length determination and evacuation

shutdown functions

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Shelter Operations

Improving capabilities in host shelter

counties Designate likely host shelter counties based

on predicted traffic volumes for roadways

and potential bottlenecks

Determine lead time for host counties toprepare for sheltering mission

Develop a more efficient shelter opening

scheme based on predicted numbers of

evacuees and entering routes

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Implementation of Evacuation

Measures and Sustaining Operations

Shelter Operations

Opening refuges of last resort

Determine in which counties and along whatroadways refuges may have to be opened

based on queue length function.

In conjunction with HURREVAC, determine

lead time for counties to prepare refuges.

Using travel demand forecast module,

determine potential refuge demand along

congested roadways.

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Public Information

Pre-Departure Advisories

Using broadcast media and 511 (Knowbefore you go) inform evacuees of

potential congested areas and suggest

alternate routes.

Provide information to potential evacuees of

worst household commute times and queue

lengths depending on routes selected and

evacuation start times.

HEADS UP O ti l U


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HEADS UP - Operational Uses Implementation of Evacuation

Measures and Sustaining OperationsPublic Information

Pre-Departure Advisories

Forewarn potential motorists of what toexpect once evacuation trip has begun

based on real time data from TTMS, travel

demand, queue length and worst household

commute time data. Using evacuation shutdown lead times,

prepare advisories encouraging in-county

evacuation and avoidance of occluded

roadways.

HEADS UP O ti l U


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Public Information

Event Specific Advisories to Motorists

Requires ITS and other methods ofcommunicating with evacuees already on

roadway (i.e., HAR, VMS, portable radio

transmitters, radio)

Forewarn potential evacuees of what to

expect at traffic bottlenecks and congested

areas based on TTMS and travel demand

forecasting model.

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HEADS UP - Operational Uses Implementation of Evacuation

Measures and Sustaining OperationsPublic Information

Event Specific Advisories to Motorists

Recommend local sheltering options andalternate routes to motorists along

congested roadways and in traffic queues.

Provide times to reach likely destination

locations based on TTMS data and traveldemand forecast model.

Advise motorist to clear roadways and seek

refuges once evacuation shutdown lead

times are realized.

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HEADS UP - In SummaryThe capability to manage evacuations,

not just initiate themAllows analysis of the impacts of alternate

courses of action and decision making.

More realistic estimates of regionalevacuation times and impacts.

Allows real time monitoring and analysis

of evacuation situation

Permits better planning for exigent

situations on evacuation roadways

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HEADS UP - In SummaryThe capability to manage evacuations,

not just initiate themBetter prepare host shelter jurisdictions of

potential operational needs.

Implications for Public Information

(511and Know before you Go)

Emergency Public Information (along

roadways).

Possible application for otheremergencies that precipitate evacuations

and diversions including Nuclear Power,

Terrorism, Hazmat incidents


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Summary

Operations AND information

management

Proactive rather than reactive

Disasters = Movement Management

Includes data collection and analysis

tools

Contingent on acquiring data, analyzing

and interpreting it and then acting on it

Documents

02-FHwA-HEADSUP- Managerial Eco