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Opportunity Day • March 7, 2008 Running to be a complex refinery Running to be a complex refinery ()

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Page 1: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

Opportunity Day • March 7, 2008

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““ Running to be a complex refinery Running to be a complex refinery ””

!"#$% &'(&)*,-!./012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

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Page 2: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

DisclaimerThe information contained herein is being furnished on a confidential basis for

discussion purposes only and only for the use of the recipient, and may be subject

to completion or amendment through the delivery of additional documentation.

Except as otherwise provided herein, this document does not constitute an offer to

sell or purchase any security or engage in any transaction. The information

contained herein has been obtained from sources that The Bangchak Petroleum

Public Company Limited (“BCP”) considers to be reliable; however, BCP makes no

representation as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or

completeness of the information contained herein. Any projections, valuations and

statistical analyses contained herein have been provided to assist the recipient in

the evaluation of the matters described herein; such projections, valuations and

analyses may be based on subjective assessments and assumptions and may

utilize one among alternative methodologies that produce differing results;

accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses are not to be

viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate representation of

future events. The recipient should make an independent evaluation and judgment

with respect to the matters contained herein.

Page 3: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

����������������� ��������

Performance FY2007

�������

Contents

►Refinery Business

► Marketing

Product Quality Improvement (PQI) & Related Project

2008 : Another Year of Challenging

Page 4: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

PerformancePerformance

FY2007FY2007

Page 5: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

USD/Bbl

Singapore’s Oil Price Movement

Y2007

Y2006

Dubai 95/Dubai

GO/Dubai FO/Dubai

USD/Bbl USD/Bbl

USD/Bbl

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

-

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Page 6: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

Refinery : Performance is in Better Shape$/Bbl YTD,07 YTD,06

95/DB 14.55 11.74

GO/DB 16.72 15.22

FO/DB (10.40) (12.69)

Q4Q4 YTDYTD

2007 2006 2007 2006

M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL

EBITDA +1,507 (906) +3,768 +1,141

� Base GRM 989 3.88 69 0.33 3,033 3.13 1,877 2.01

� Improvement Programs - 0.00 41 0.19 15 0.02 295 0.32

� GRM Hedging (117) (0.46) (6) (0.03) 47 0.04 681 0.73

� Inventory Gain / (Loss) 1,027 4.03 (1,048) (4.98) 1,803 1.85 (655) (0.70)

� Inventory Write Down - - 295 1.40 54 0.06 (55) (0.06)

Total GRM 1,899 7.46 (649) (3.09) 4,952 5.10 2,143 2.29

� Other Income 9 0.04 16 0.08 128 0.13 42 0.04

� Expenses (401) (1.57) (273) (1.30) (1,312) (1.35) (1,044) (1.12)

� Adjusted EBITDA +480 (153) +1,911 +1,851

Crude Run (KBD) 68 45 66 56

Net Sale (KBD) 81 62 77 67

3.42 0.50 3.19 3.05

Page 7: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

(2)

(1)

1

2

3

4

Jan Apr Jul Oct

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Marketing : MKM Squeezed in 2007GasoilGasoil Price & MKMPrice & MKMGasoilPrice

HSD

MaketingMargin

U$/Bbl

Baht/Liter

2007 2006

2007 2006

Page 8: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

(2)

(1)

1

2

3

4

Jan Apr Jul Oct

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Marketing : MKM Squeezed in 2007

2007 2006

2007 2006

UNL95UNL95 Price & MKMPrice & MKMUNL95l Price

ULG95

MaketingMargin

U$/Bbl

Baht/Liter

Page 9: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Highlight of Marketing Achievement in 2007

1st rank market share of Biodiesel B5

Ref : Channel service station for Year 2007

Increase Biodiesel B5 outlet

from 200 stations in 2006 to be 700 stations in 2007

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2006 2007

Vol, M.liter/Month (Bar) No. Stations (Line)

BCP

76.8%

PTT

23.1%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Increase Gasohol 91 outlet

from 250 stations in 2006 to be 500 stations in 2007

Vol, M.liter/Month (Bar) No. Stations (Line)

Total sale in Retails increase 5.2%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2006 2007

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

Total Sale

No. ofServiceStation

20072006

Vol, M.liter (Bar) No. Stations (Line)

Page 10: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

Marketing : MKM Squeezed in 2007

M.Baht St./L. M.Baht St./L. M.Baht St./L. M.Baht St./L.

EBITDA (209) +193 +209 +472

� Retail Margin -34 -6 305 61 509 24 682 33

� Industrial Margin 66 34 104 44 274 32 460 50

� Lube Margin 34 949 13 433 115 826 66 559

Total MKM 66 9 422 57 898 30 1,208 41

� Other Income 132 17 103 14 500 17 435 15

� Operating Expenses (407) (54) (332) (45) (1,189) (40) (1,170) (40)

� Sale Volume KBD ML/MO KBD ML/MO KBD ML/MO KBD ML/MO

- Retail Vol. 39 189 35 171 37 179 35 170- Industrial Vol. 13 64 16 77 15 72 16 78

Total 52 254 51 248 52 250 51 248

4 55 26 39

Q4Q4 YTDYTD

2007 2006 2007 2006

Page 11: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

32.6 %32.6 %

16.0 %17.3 %

12.7 %12.7 %

8.4 %8.4 %

OthersOthers

13.0 %13.0 %

34.3 %34.3 %

15.4 %16.9 %

12.1 %12.1 %

8.3 %8.3 %

OthersOthers

13.0 %13.0 %

Y2006

Source : DOEB, MOE

6% Market Share increasing in Service Station

4th RankY2007

Page 12: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

EBITDA 1,298 (712) 3,977 1,613

� Depreciation & Amortization (204) (211) (819) (822)

� Net Interest Expense (121) (122) (462) (573)

� FX-Other Gain (Loss) (21) 39 (74) (81)

� Impairment Adjustment (41) 3 (41) 4

� � � � Profit / (Loss) before Tax 911 (1,003) 2,581 141

� Tax (510) 335 (890) 107

  Net Profit (Loss) 401 (669) 1,691 248

- -

- INVENTORY GAIN / (LOSS) 1,027 (1,048) 1,803 (655)

- INVENTORY WRITE DOWN - 295 54 (54)

  Adjusted EBITDA 271 41 2,120 2,323

 

Company Performance FY2007

: Million Baht

*

* Included tax reversion from year 2006 Baht 102 million to suspense for RD’s verdict

Q4Q4 YTDYTD

2007 2006 2007 2006

Page 13: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

PQI &PQI &

Related Project Related Project

Page 14: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

USD/bbl

10

8

6

4

2

0

Product Quality Improvement Project (“PQI”)

What is PQI ?What is PQI ? Result from PQIResult from PQI

CounterpartiesCounterparties

• PQI is the Investment in “Hydrocracking Unit” and other

supporting units

• These units enable BCP to turn current fuel oil output to

be gas oil without increasing the capacity

• Feasibility Study UOP LLC & Foster Wheeler Corporation

• Technology License UOP LLC• EPC Contractor CTCI Corporation• Project Mgnt Consultant Foster Wheeler Corporation

• Investment Cost USD 378 million (Included Contingency 30 MUSD)

• Construction Period May’06 - Year end 2008

Investment & ConstructionInvestment & Construction

MEME FEFEMEME FEFE

CurrentSimple Refinery

AfterPQI Completion

EnhanceEnhance

Crude MixCrude Mix

FlexibilityFlexibility

Less FOLess FO

OutputOutput

PortionPortion

SurgeSurge

GRMGRM

CurrentSpread

CurrentSpread

Feasibility

Spread

LPG, 3%

Diesel,

35%ULG, 18%

Jet Fuel,

11%

Fuel Oil,

33%

LPG, 5%

Diesel,

52%

ULG, 25%

Jet Fuel,

9%

Fuel Oil,

9%

IncreaseIncrease

Crude Crude

RunRun

~ 70 KBD (58%) ~ 100 KBD (83%)

Page 15: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,0002003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008F

2009F

2010F

2011F

THB mil

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

USD/bblEBITDA

EBITDA (feasibility study)

GRM

GRM (feasibility study)

“Return from investment competitive in long-term, hence BCP decided to pursue PQI”

Note: (1) EBITDA 2008F-

2011F based on GO/DB

USD15.21/bbl and

FO/DB USD -12.00/bbl

(2) EBITDA (feasibility

study) 2008F-2011F

based on GO/DB USD10.5/bbl and

FO/DB USD -3/bbl

Both cases based on

gradually growing crude run from 65 KBSD

before COD after that

run max 100 KBSD

(1)

(2)

Note : Not included inventory effect

Prosperous Return from PQI

Page 16: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Project Month & Accumulate %

Progress %

Actual 1.0 2.5 3.0 5.6 8.0 8.7 9.7 11.2 15.0 18.5 20.9 23.4 30.2 34.1 39.6 44.3 50.8 55.5 61.4 68.2 73.5

Plan 61.4 65.5 70.3 78.8 85.7 90.1 93.2 96.3 97.5 98.1 98.6 99.3 99.9 100.0

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

All LLIs delivery

to siteReady for piling

and civil work

Piping and Instrument

Diagram for

construction

Start of Distributed Control

System factory acceptance test Substation Power

no.5 energizedMechanical

Completion

Provisional

Acceptance

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

Month

Q4

2006 2007 2008

PQI Progress (E/P/C)

Page 17: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

Cogeneration Power Plant

� Stability of Electricity�s Plant System is increased

� Increase efficiency of public utility system using energy

� Save money of building reserve boiler about 2.1 M$

� Expense decreasing from producing and buying

electricity and stream

BenefitBenefit

� Since PQI Project will has done, electricity and

steam demand will be increased.

about 1,000 square metersSpace

Q2- 2009COD

90 tons per hourSteam Capacity

After 25 years then transfer ownership to BCPOperate Period

Vary to CPI and GPI,CPI = Consumer Price IndexGPI = Gas Price Index

Steam Price

MEA minusElectricity Price

19.7 MWElectricity Capacity

HOA SummaryHOA Summary

� More than 300 MBt/year saving from the Cogeneration

Project

� Another 250 MBt./year saving from using natural gas

instead of fuel oil for plant fuel

SavingSaving

Page 18: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

2008 : 2008 :

Another YearAnother Year

of Challenging of Challenging

Page 19: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

We Concern

• PQI Focusing

• Normal Operation

�Oil Price Situation

�Export Market

�Crude Selection

�GRM

�FX Appreciation

�Marketing Margin Squeeze

�Marketing Market Share

Page 20: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

PQI Focusing

ConstructionConstruction

• LP Testing

• Crude Planning

• Tank/Barge Facilities

• Plant Reliability

• Recruitment

• Training

• Working Capital

CommissioningCommissioning

DistributionDistribution

30% Offtake

AgreementbyPTT

Production (KBD) 100100

60% Throughour

ExistingChannel

10% AnotherChannel

&Use / Loss

Page 21: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125GO 0.5%S

UNL 95

Dubai

?

$/BBL

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D’07 ‘08

* Based on Morgan Stanley, Mitsui & Lehman forward price as of Mar. 3 ‘08 Except Mar. ‘08 Price is actual month to date (1-3).

95.07

119.28

110.28

how is the 2008 oil price

Oil Price Situation

Page 22: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

2008 Oil Price Trend Analysis

NEGATIVE FACTORSPOSITIVE FACTORS

• World Oil Demand

• World Oil Supply

• New / Expanded Refineries

• Speculator / Hedge Fund

• Weak US. Currency (Currency Impact on OPEC Basket Price)

• Economic (Slowdown esp. USA. From Sub-prime Mortgages)

• High level of inventory (esp. USA)

• Political Tension

• Storms / Weather

Page 23: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

WTI Brent Dubai

Barclays Capital 87.40 85.80 81.40

BNP Paribas 88.80 87.00 82.80

Citigroup 80.00 80.00 74.00

Deutsche Bank 80.00 80.00 74.00

EIA 84.73 - 78.73

Economist Intelligence Unit 79.56 78.00 73.56

ESAI 78.90 78.10 72.90

Goldman Sachs 95.48 93.98 89.48

ING 76.00 74.00 70.00

JP Morgan 65.00 64.00 59.00

Lehman 84.00 84.00 78.00

Merrill Lynch 82.00 82.00 76.00

Morgan Stanley 65.00 64.00 59.00

SG CIB 80.90 80.40 74.90

Standard Chartered 75.00 74.00 69.00

UBS 74.00 74.00 68.00

2008

2008 Crude Oil Price Forecast Summary

Source : Analyst Team as of Jan. 2008.

2008WTI = 89-93Brent = 87-91Dubai = 82-86

$/BBL

Page 24: 012 (3&)$4 (26&78)

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125GO 0.5%S

UNL 95

Dubai

$/BBL

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D’07 ‘08

* Based on Morgan Stanley, Mitsui & Lehman forward price as of Mar. 3 ‘08 Except Mar. ‘08 Price is actual month to date (1-3).

95.07

119.28

110.28

2008 Product Crack Spread Forecast

AVG. 2007DB = 68.3395 = 82.82GO = 84.96

Dubai Price = 82 - 86

UNL 95 Crack= 12 - 14

G.O. 0.5%S Crack = 16 - 18