01 - Dynamic and Real Time Modelling Rob Casey

8/21/2019 01 - Dynamic and Real Time Modelling Rob Casey

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Water Company PerspectivesOn Dynamic and Real Time

Modelling

Efficient Water Workshop

Birmingham, 5th February

Rob Casey, Water Modelling ManagerThames Water Utilities Ltd


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Our Vision

Mission Statement

‘Efficient and accurate monitoring and control of theThames Water system with immediate alert and

resolution of any activity from source to tap for any

network operation that may impact our customers!’

Live calibrated realtime models of our

entire network

Any genuine network

activity is highlighted

real time – no false

alarms

Clearly articulates what

the issue is i.e. Closed

valve/leakage increase.

Our customers arekey

Covers our own sites

– Not just the network

The above is a long term ambition yet how can

we achieve this?


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How Are We Going to Achieve This?

SCADADATA

ANALYSIS ACTION

Optimisednetwork activity,

leakage & energy

use

AMR/Acoustic

noise logging

Data

validation

systems

Improvedinformation on

network

Efficient and effectivemanagement

processes

Live

hydraulic

models

INFORMATIONSYSTEMS

Financial &

performance

data


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Real Time Modelling - Future Vision

DATA

VALIDATION

SCADA

SYSTEMMODEL

CALIBRATION

SYSTEM

MODELS

GIS

DECISION SUPPORT

SYSTEMS

Automatic Data Validation and Model Calibration systems are

key to the success of real time modelling and future decision

support systems

Benefits

Up to date models maintained on line and available for use

100% model coverage

Model maintenance costs reduced

Dependency on external consultants reduced

Network efficiency improved – shut valves, breaches detected immediately

Optimal network & supply operation – pressure, energy, leakage, resources

Leading to reduced network activity

INFORMATION

SYSTEMS

Existing Components

Future Developments


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Household Meter penetration of 80% by 2025

“One property, one connection, one meter” with stateof the art AMR technology on all new installations andreplacements

Selective metering rollout across concentratedgeographic DMAs tying in with Mains Replacementwhere possible

Proactively replace meters based on risk and assetdeterioration, alongside Selective Programme

Consumption information made available forcustomers

AMR flow data to quantify usage, identify leakage andselect areas for further investment (regular waterbalance)

Implementation of innovative and affordable tariffsolutions that positively influence customer behaviourand SMART Network Management i.e. In builtacoustic and pressure loggers

Develop suite of services/products for commercialcustomers based on AMR flow data

Automatic Meter Reading(Improved Information)


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Trunk Main Monitoring(Improved Information)

To reduce the risk of major bursts,we’re installing two types of sensorsin access chambers on some of ourlargest water mains

Ashridge’s Hydroguard system

monitors water pressure, flow rateand noise to detect bursts

This technology, combined withcontingency planning, allows us torespond more quickly to bursts:

– less flooding and disruption

– reduced interruptions to watersupply


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Syrinix’s TrunkMinder system actsas a burst alarm too, but has theadded capability of detecting smallleaks as they develop

By repairing these hidden leaks we

can prevent them from graduallywashing away the supporting soil

– reduced likelihood of majorbursts

– scheduled repairs are lessdisruptive than emergencyrepairs

Trunk Main Monitoring(Improved Information)


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Flow

Pressure

DataCleansing

Analysis EventGenerator

Alert

Generator

Secure File Transfer

USER INTERFACES

GIS

Job

Records Operational

Data

Data Validation - System Overview


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Cleaning

algorithms

Prediction

acrossspace and

time

Algorithm example: Historical prediction

Ignoring spiky data Automatically Identifying

deviations from norm

Data Validation - Algorithmic Approach

e.g. TaKaDu


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Data Analysis – TaKaDu Pilot Scheme

Pilot scheme proved data analysis concepts and ability to identify leaks,

bursts, meter faults, shut valves and DMA breaches in real time


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Earlier leak detection

(reducing visible leaksand customer impact)

Improved leak location

Improved detection in

non-operable DMAs and

DMA00

Repair verification

Identification of DMA

br eaches, meter failures

and valve operation

mistakes

Trunk Main Monitoring

Real-time alerts on

bursts and major

network events

Automated validation of

flow, pressure and

demand dataPlayback of SCADA

pressure and flow data

via simulation tools to

identify network

constraints

On line hydraulic

models with auto

calibration features

Network Optimisation

Real Time Modelling – Network Potential


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Transmission Optimisation3 Key Components

1. Production/Transmission Savings

24.0

25.030

3.0

-8.0-

7.090

43.0

HAMPTON

680659.6

ASHFORD700

679

KEMPTON170

159.4

EALING & BST55.5 Ml/d

EALING & BST55.5 Ml/d

KEMPTON 48”

49.0 Ml/d

KEMPTON 48”

49.0 Ml/d

THREEVALLEYS

0.0

35

10.0

10

HAMPTONCOUNTRY

77.3 Ml/d

KEW

BARNES

SHOOT UP118.2 Ml/d

BARROW HILL

127.1 Ml/d

PUTNEY102.8 Ml/dPUTNEY

102.8 Ml/d

BISHOPSWD27.0 Ml/d

BISHOPSWD27.0 Ml/d

MAIDEN LANE124.9 Ml/d

MAIDEN LANE124.9 Ml/d

CROUCH HILL151.6 Ml/d

CROUCH HILL151.6 Ml/d

MILL HILL/KIDDERPORE

26.9 Ml/d

MILL HILL/KIDDERPORE

26.9 Ml/d

FORTIS GRN

PUMPED64.6 Ml/d

FORTIS GRN

PUMPED64.6 Ml/d

FORTIS

GREENCRICKLEWOOD

BATTERSEAPUTNEY

RES

PARKLANE

HOLLANDPARK

SEWARDSTONE

HORNSEY40

38.8

BARROWHILL

NRH

STOKENEWINGTON

78.1

80

57.0

70 14.335

2.9

113.7135

74.4

754.030

37.250

THREE

VALLEYS

10.010

51.280

HAMMERSMITH

99.4120 3.0

4

52.0

55

22.370

25.025 38.038

36.09043.0

4320.020

70.090

25.0

30

SEWARDSTONE

17.0

17

0.018

2.5

20

19.633

52.860

37.590

9.750

48.1120

60.060

60.0

60

13.050

0.0

30

40.043

7.0

-

FINSBURY

PARK10.0

20

AREA

10Ml/d

191.0200

Zone GroupDemand Ml/d

Transfer Ml/d

Capacity Ml/d

Enhanced Assets In BluePinch Points In Red

Strategic Network Performance, R Casey 27/02/09 v1

WTW Output Capability v20.8PR09 Demand Forecasts v3355

Outage 3%, PR09 Headroom

FINSBURY

PARK25.9

25.9

KEY Booster

TWRMShaft

WTW

Reservoir

8.0113.7

WEEKDAY ELECTRICITY TARIFF

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

0 0 : 3 0

0 1 : 3 0

0 2 : 3 0

0 3 : 3 0

0 4 : 3 0

0 5 : 3 0

0 6 : 3 0

0 7 : 3 0

0 8 : 3 0

0 9 : 3 0

1 0 : 3 0

1 1 : 3 0

1 2 : 3 0

1 3 : 3 0

1 4 : 3 0

1 5 : 3 0

1 6 : 3 0

1 7 : 3 0

1 8 : 3 0

1 9 : 3 0

2 0 : 3 0

2 1 : 3 0

2 2 : 3 0

2 3 : 3 0

TIME

p / k W h

WD

DARENTH ROAD WPS - DEC 2012

MAJOR SAVINGS FROMREDUCED PUMPING DURING

4-7 PM & TRIAD PERIODS

MINIMAL ADDITIONAL SAVINGSFROM ENHANCED NIGHT OR WEEKEND

PUMPING & INCREASED LEAKAGE RISK

2. Tariff/Triad Savings

3. Pump Efficiency Savings

HEAD

FLOW

Plan/Monitor Weekly

Monitor In Real Time

Monitor In Real Time


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Planned & Monitored Weekly By Production & Control

Using Cost Model, Production Plan & Cost Tracker

Key Performance Metric - £/Ml

Production/Transmission Optimisation

Production Plan

Cost Model

CURRENT

TARGETUNIT COST

£50.85 per Ml

Marginal Cost Tracker


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Tariff/Triad Optimisation

CENTRAL & N LONDON TARIFF/TRIAD WEEKLY SUMMARY

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

DAIL Y AV. SCHEDUL E 12/12/11 13/12/11 14/12/11 15/12/11 16/12/11

P O T E N T I A L T R I A

D C O S T £

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

P E A K - A V T A R I F F D

A I L Y C O S T £

Po ten tia l T ria d Co st £ Pea k-Av T ar if f D ai ly C os t £

Annual Plan Agreed By Production, Control & Networks

Actioned/monitored by Control Centre

Key Performance Metrics – kWh, Energy Costs, Leakage Impact

WEEKDAY ELECTRICITY TARIFF

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

0 0 : 3 0

0 1 : 3 0

0 2 : 3 0

0 3 : 3 0

0 4 : 3 0

0 5 : 3 0

0 6 : 3 0

0 7 : 3 0

0 8 : 3 0

0 9 : 3 0

1 0 : 3 0

1 1 : 3 0

1 2 : 3 0

1 3 : 3 0

1 4 : 3 0

1 5 : 3 0

1 6 : 3 0

1 7 : 3 0

1 8 : 3 0

1 9 : 3 0

2 0 : 3 0

2 1 : 3 0

2 2 : 3 0

2 3 : 3 0

TIME

p / k W h

WD

DARENTH ROAD WPS - DEC 2012

MAJOR SAVINGS FROM

REDUCED PUMPING DURING

4-7 PM & TRIAD PERIODS

MINIMAL ADDITIONAL SAVINGS

FROM ENHANCED NIGHT OR WEEKEND

PUMPING & INCREASED LEAKAGE RISK

Real Time Monitoring via SCADAvital to highlight high tariff/triad costs

Weekly summaries to highlight

overall performance

P Effi i O i i i


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Pump Efficiency Optimisation

HEAD

FLOW

Current Pump Operating Point

Current pump replacement plan under Business Improvement Plan

Real Time Pump Efficiency Savings

- Monitor pump group water power output versus energy input

- To be further developed under sub metering and information technology projects

Key Performance Metrics – kWh input, water power output

Pump Efficiency

Delivery Head

Monitor Pump GroupWater Power Output

Versus Energy Input

To Monitor Efficiency

Flow

Suction Head

Pump Head Flow CurveControl Gentre To

Optimise Pump

Efficiency Using

Most Efficient Pumps


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Real Time Modelling - Key Issues

DATA

VALIDATION

SCADA

SYSTEM

MODEL

CALIBRATION

SYSTEM

MODELS

GIS

DECISION SUPPORT

SYSTEMS

INFORMATIONSYSTEMS

Existing Components

Future Developments

The development of automatic Data Validation

and Model Calibration systems are key to

achieving Sustainable Real Time Decision

Support Systems That Maximise Benefits for

both Network and Supply System Optimisation

To justi fy the expenditure on automated data validation and model

calibration it is important to consider benefits right across the water

supply system rather than individual activities.

Documents

01 - Dynamic and Real Time Modelling Rob Casey