009 Appendix E -2 Survey Questionnaire

8/8/2019 009 Appendix E -2 Survey Questionnaire

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FMS project Questionnaire Survey page 1 of 9

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APPENDIX E 2

Questionnaire on Future Mobile Services and Markets (FMS)

Background and objectivesWe are seeking your help with a study on future demand for mobile services that SCFAssociates are conducting for the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, part of theEuropean Commissions Joint Research Centre: The study is examining:

Possible usage patterns of future wireless electronic communications servicesthat will be demanded in the European Union over the next fifteen years

The service characteristics of such services in the EU

The supporting technologies Traffic volumes of such services in the EU

In the first phase of the study, three evolutionary scenarios have been developed,focusing on economic, political, social and cultural elements since future market

development will not be determined by technology alone but rather through theinterplay of a wide range of factors. These scenarios are not intended as predictionsinstead, the intention is to consider the range of possible futures within which mobileservices will develop and operate. The supposition is that different economic,political, social environments could radically alter the kinds of mobile servicesdemanded by users. Briefly, the three scenarios considered in this study are:

1. Smooth development EU economies unite to provide growth and positive progress indevelopment, in a fair and managed way that brings prosperity across all 25 members

2. Economic stagnation the EU continues peacefully, following a slow but generaldecline, rather like the Japanese economy between 1988 and 2003, with no economicgrowth and unsuccessful, or frozen, government policy reactions to strong deflation. TheEU economy is left behind by growth in Asia.

3. Constant change development is very uneven, but overall the trend is moderatelypositive, characterized by ad hoc growth and recession, often in parallel in different areasor countries a strong flux of stop-go progressions and regressions. Slowly, prosperityincreases for many in the EU.

In addition, two discontinuities, or wild card situations have been considered:

1. Financial crash an economic disaster within the EU and spreading beyond,comparable to the 1929 crash, or the Russian Default within Russia but with affects forover 5 years

2. Natural disaster or major War or Nuclear /Chemical/Biological accident / deliberateincident - seriously impacts EU economy long-term, to 2020 and beyond, possibly making

a small part of the EU uninhabitable, temporarily. Other regions (ASEAN, NAFTA) areaffected but not so seriously

A full description of the scenarios is available here: http://fms.jrc.es/pages/documents.htm.

In this survey we are seeking your views on the scenarios and demand for wireless servicesthat could emerge within them. The estimated time to complete the questionnaire is 20minutes.


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Confidentiality: Your responses will be kept confidential and no comments will be attributedto any individual in any reports produced by the study. However, we do ask you to provideyour name and email address so that we can monitor response to the survey and also so thatwe can send you a summary report of findings.

1 Validating and enriching the scenarios

1.1 In your opinion, do the three evolutionary scenarios presentedadequately reflect the range of possible futures facing Europe over thenext fifteen years? Yes

No

1.2 If no, please tell us which other scenarios you envisage?

1.3 We would be pleased to have your comments on the content of eachscenario. Do they seem plausible? Are there any incorrect assertions, or canyou enrich them in any way?

Smooth development:

Plausible?

Comments:

Yes

No

Economic stagnation:

Plausible?

Comments:

Yes

No

Constant change:

Plausible?

Comments:

Yes

No

1.4 In your opinion, what will be the main factors driving development of mobileservices within each scenario?


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Smoothdevelopment

Economicstagnation

Constant change

General economic/financial conditions

Geopolitical stability

Ability to pay for services

Wide take up of distancelearning

Ageing population

Single parent families

Energy prices

Migration

Rise in home ownership

Role of services inemployment

Role of services in survival

Other (please specify)

1.5 Please comment on other drivers that you think would be important in particular

scenarios:


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2 Implications of the scenarios for market development

2.1 In general terms, how would the market for mobile services beaffected under each scenario?

Smooth development Growth

No change

Decline

Economic stagnation Growth

No change

Decline

Constant change Growth

No change

Decline

2.2 Please give comments:

2.3 The study has identified the following categories of wireless services. Can you identify

other categories that might be in demand in the future?

Simple voice

Rich voice (eg 2-way real-time voice + video)

Mobile Internet/Intranet/extranet (eg email, web, corporate network)

Location-based services (eg locate nearest restaurant)

Text messaging services (eg real-time text-base messaging via the Internet)

Multimedia messaging services (eg combination of photo, video, audio, graphic or text)

Customised infotainment (eg video, music, gaming)

Please list other service types:


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2.4 Within each scenario, for which types of mobile service would you expect to seeincreased demand compared with today?

Smoothdevelopment

Economicstagnation

Constant change

Simple voice

Rich voice

MobileInternet/intranet/extranet

Location-based services

Text messaging

Multimedia messaging

Customised infotainment


2.5 In your opinion, which type of mobile service would be in greatest demand to meet thespecific needs of users within each scenario (Please tick one only)

Smoothdevelopment

Economicstagnation

Constant change

Simple voice

Rich voice

MobileInternet/intranet/extranet

Location-based services

Text messaging

Multimedia messaging

Customised infotainment



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2.6 What specific characteristics should the service you have ticked above have tomeet the needs of users within the scenario? (eg very low price, security, etc)

Smoothdevelopment

Economicstagnation

Constantchange

2.7 Please suggest specific mobile applications that you think would be especially indemand within each scenario (eg in Economic Stagnation, a very low cost voice servicecombined with feature-free handset might best meet user needs)

Smoothdevelopment

Economicstagnation

Constantchange

2.8 Within each scenario, what percentage of the population would you foresee using eachservice type?

Smooth development Economic stagnation Constant change

Simple voice90%

90%

90%

Rich voice90%

90%

90%

Mobile Internet,intranet/extranet

90%

90%

90%


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Location-basedservices

90%

90%

90%

Text messaging 90%

90%

90%

Multimedia messaging90%

90%

90%

Customisedinfotainment

90%

90%

90%

Others? (Pleasespecify)

90%

90%

90%

90%

90%

90%

2.9Please give any additional comments you may have on demand for particularservices within each scenario, eg types of user, usage patterns, price sensitivity

2.10With regard to the wild card scenarios described (Financial Crash, Man-madeDisaster), which services do you think there would be increased demand?

Financial Crash


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Man-made Disaster

2.11Which services do you think would be less in demand in these wild cardsituations?

Financial Crash

Man-made Disaster

2.12Can you think of any new services that would be in demand in thesecircumstances?

Financial Crash

Man-made Disaster


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3. Information about respondents

3.1 With which kind oforganisation are youaffiliated?

Higher education institution/research institute

Telecoms operator

Service developer

Equipment manufacturer

Regulator/government

Market/industry analyst

Other, please specify

3.2 What is your main

responsibility?

Strategy/marketing/sales

Technical R&D

Regulation

Social/economic/futures research

Other, please specify

3.3 Name

Profession

Organisation

Telephone

Email address

NB: your contribution to thissurvey will be anonymousand no individualcomments will be identifiedin any reports produced bythe study. However we ask

you to supply your name sothat we can monitorresponse to the survey andan email address so thatwe can send a summaryreport on the results of thissurvey

Documents

009 Appendix E -2 Survey Questionnaire