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WTO Doha Round:WTO Doha Round:
Crucial Year - 2007Crucial Year - 2007
May 18, 2007May 18, 2007
Junko Kawauchi, JISAJunko Kawauchi, JISA
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• Effect by overall elimination of tariff: US$ 67 B (by OECD)
• Effect by elimination of tariff, elimination/reduction of agricultural subsidies for 10 years - US$ 275 B (by World Bank ）
(estimated in 2015, world income rate – 0.7%, World Income would be about US$ 40 T)
• Effect by success of Doha Round including liberalization of service sector – US$ 2.3 T
(by Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry)
*Service Sector is important! Source: METI
Economic Effects by Success of Doha Round
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5thMinisterialConference(Cancun)Sep. 2003
Negotiations resum
ed at G
eneral Council
February
4th MinisterialConference
(Doha)Nov. 2001
2003
General Council
Framework Agreement Jul. 2004
2002
2004
2005 2006
US
President’s
TP
A D
eadline
6thMinisterial Conference
(Hong Kong)Dec. 2005
“HK Declaration”
(2007 Major Events)
Jan. 31 US President Bush Called for TPA extension
Mar. 20-21 G33 Ministerial meeting (Jakarta)
Apr. 11-15 G6 Ministerial Meeting (New Delhi)
May 15-16 OECD Ministerial Council Meeting (Paris)
June 6-8 G8 Summit (Heiligendamm, Germany)
Round suspendedJul. 2006
Round suspendedJul. 2006
Doha Round – Time Series
US Midterm Election Nov. 2006
Doha R
ound set up
Negotiations broke dow
n
Informal TNC meetingNov. 2006
Informal TNC meetingNov. 2006
End of June, 2007
2008
WTO Informal Ministerial Meeting (Davos)
Jan. 27, 2007Round resumed
WTO Informal Ministerial Meeting (Davos)
Jan. 27, 2007Round resumed
2007
Source: METI
US G20(Brazil / India)
Request further access t
o non-agri. market
Request further access to
agricultural marketR
educ
tion
of s
uppo
rt fo
r
dom
estic
agr
i. se
ctor
Req
uest
furt
her a
cces
s
to a
gric
ultu
ral m
arke
t
Request further access to agri. / non-agri. market
Reduction of support for domestic agri. sector
Japan
EU
Major 3 Subjects of the Round
1) Agricultural market access - Lowering tariffs on agricultural products
2) Domestic support for Agriculture sector - Substantial reductions of
subsidies
3) NAMA - Lowering tariffs on non-agricultural goods
Major Subjects & Player Position
4Source: METI
Triangle Deadlock
Agricultural Market Access
Support for Domestic Agriculture
Non-Agricultural Market Access
US EU
Japan (G10) EU
Developing Countries
G20
US
DeadlockCouldn’t agree at
the Ministerial Meetingin July 2006
Developed Countries
Defense OffenseDefense Offense
Defense Offense
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G20Australia
Source: METI
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Negotiations Resumed in 2007
Jan. 27 Informal Ministerial Meeting in Davos Jan. 31 Informal TNC meeting – formally resumed the Round Jan. 31 US President Bush called for TPA extension Mar. 20-21 G33 Ministerial meeting (Jakarta) Apr. 11-15 G6 Ministerial Meeting (New Delhi) May 15-16 OECD Ministerial Council Meeting (Paris) June 6-8 G8 Summit (Heiligendamm, Germany) End of June Deadline of US President’s TPA - Will it be extended?? End of 2007 New Target to conclude the Round?
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Non Agricultural Market Access - NAMA
Reduction of tariffs:- Need to reduce tariffs mainly of developing countries- Developed countries’ tariffs on some goods are also
high- Method to reduce tariffs: “Swiss Formula Coefficient”
Elimination of Non-Tariff Barriers
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GATS Talks (Services)
Prepare for break through in Agriculture / NAMA sector
Plurilateral negotiation started Computer and Related Services (CRS)
Not many difficult regulations compared to other sectors
CPC 84 “2 Digit” Commitments: request full commitment for Mode 1-3
“Understanding on the scope of coverage of CPC 84 “
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New Framework for Service Negotiations
Service sector is most important
If Agriculture / NAMA negotiations take too long to be agreed,
- Another method/framework for services liberalization negotiations needs to be considered
ie. Only by ICT service sector plurilateral requesting countries+
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Key for Successful Doha Round
Appropriate political decision by leaders of major players- Renewal of US President’s TPA is indispensable
Strong voice from global industry - WITSA represents 73 industries in the world
Developing countries’ understanding for trade liberalization- Share success stories / promote communication
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Crucial Year 2007
New Timeframe of the Doha Round negotiations needs to be shown: - New Target - the end of 2007 possible?
Director General Pascal Lamy said,“a successful outcome to the Round is possible, even in the small amount of time remaining until the end of this year.”
We need to recognize its importance and urge governments to conclude the Round
