1April 19, 2023

Barbara Rosewicz

Stephen C. Fehr

Pamela M. PrahChristine Vestal

State of the States 2010

Audio:1-888-299-4099Access Code: V082406

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To find the report, go to: http://www.stateline.org/live/publications/States-2010

April 19, 2023

3April 19, 2023

Barbara Rosewicz

Stephen C. Fehr

Pamela M. PrahChristine Vestal

State of the States 2010

4

By Stephen C. Fehr

April 19, 2023

Recession could reshape state governments in lasting ways

5April 19, 2023

How this recession compares to the last oneStates experienced the largest revenue decreases in the months following the 2001 recession. This recession has already surpassed those declines

—and revenue figures are expected to continue to take a hit.

6April 19, 2023

Revenue changes by state

The recession came earlier to states hit hard by the collapse of the

housing boom, such as Arizona and Florida, whose revenue plunged and

unemployment skyrocketed. By the second quarter of 2009, however,

every state was facing declines in revenue from the previous year. And

the latest figures show every major source of state tax revenue—sales,

corporate- and personal-income taxes—tumbled, compared with the

previous year.

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Growing state budget gapsThe current recession already has forced states to deal with greater budget shortfalls than they faced in the five years it took them to recover from

the last national recession after the 2001 terrorist attacks.

As a result of the previous eight-month recession, states erased $263.8 billion in deficits from fiscal year 2002 to fiscal year 2006. Since the current

recession started in December 2007, states scrambling to balance their budgets already have closed at least $304 billion in gaps between projected

spending and revenue.

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• Incredible shrinking state government

– Examine the impact on state employees

– Look at impact on services the state delivers

• What are the long term solutions to my state’s financial troubles

– Reform of the tax revenue structure

• Who will pay for government in the future?

• More fees, taxes, costs shifted onto residents, students

– Public private relationship

• Will elected officials really make changes or revert back to old ways?

April 19, 2023

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By Christine Vestal

cvestal@pewtrusts.org

April 19, 2023

Is it time for a new balance in the federal and state fiscal partnership?

10April 19, 2023

Projected stimulus spendingRecovery dollars will peak for states in 2010 at nearly $108 billion and taper off through 2016. The package was designed so that investments in

highways, high-speed rail, broadband technologies, clean water and energy efficiency would come later. Nearly half of the $23 billion in stimulus

funds for states in fiscal year 2012 is for transportation, environment and energy projects.

11April 19, 2023

How stimulus funds are being distributedNevada and Florida, two states hit particularly hard

by the recession, have so far received fewer federal

stimulus dollars per capita—less than $400—than

many other states. North Dakota, one of just two

states that didn’t have a budget gap, and Alaska

received the most, more than $1,000 per capita.

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Resources

• The Tax Foundation

–  Federal spending in each state per dollar of federal taxes (FY2005)

 

• National Association of State Budget Officers

– State Expenditure Report, Dec. 2009

• Medicaid expenditures from federal and state sources, p.47

• Medicaid spending as a percentage of total expenditures, p. 48

• Percentage change in Medicaid expenditures, p. 49

• A modest proposal to the federal government: Let Utah do it, The Washington Post, Feb. 19, 2010

• Federal Aid to States, U.S. Census Bureau, July 2009

• A Citizen's Guide to the 2009 Financial Report of the U.S. Government, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Dec. 2009

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By Pamela M. Prah

April 19, 2023

2010 elections: New faces, daunting problems

14April 19, 2023

37 governorships up for election in 2010Voters in 37 states will elect governors in 2010.

Democrats will defend 19 of those seats and

Republicans, 18.

Of those 19 seats currently held by Democrats, 11

will be open because of term limits or retirements.

Republicans have 11 open seats.

Republicans will try to recapture the lead in

governorships, capitalizing on their wins in New

Jersey and Virginia in 2009. Going into the 2010

elections, Democrats control 26 governors’ seats to

the GOP’s 24.

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26 secretaries of state up for election in 2010Voters this fall will elect 26 secretaries of state, a post

that in all but 11 states also is the top election official

and often the launching pad for other offices.

Vermont’s secretary of state, for example, is vying for

the governorship, Connecticut’s is running for

attorney general and Ohio’s is eyeing a U.S. Senate

seat.

In 12 states, the secretary of state is appointed and

Alaska, Hawaii and Utah rely on their lieutenant

governors to serve that role.

16April 19, 2023

31 attorneys general up for election in 2010Races for 31 attorneys general will be on the ballot

this fall, including open seats in Arizona, California,

Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Oklahoma, Rhode Island

and South Carolina, where incumbents all expressed

interest in governorships.

Insiders continue to speculate on whether New York

Attorney General Andrew Cuomo might jump into a

Democratic primary race against embattled Gov.

David Paterson.

Democrats will be defending nearly twice the number

of seats (20) than Republicans (11).

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• Both chambers are in play in Alaska, Montana, Tennessee and Wisconsin.

• Other Senate chambers to watch: Kentucky, Maine, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Oregon.

• House chambers to watch Delaware, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas

Currently Democrats control both chambers in 27 statehouses, the GOP has majorities in both chambers in 14 states. Eight statehouses are split. (Nebraska is the only nonpartisan unicameral legislature).

April 19, 2023

Battlefront for legislative chambers

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Running for redistricting power

• All eyes are on Texas, which is likely to be awarded up to four extra seats in Congress, more than any state.

• Legislatures also will play a primary role in redrawing districts in states expected to pick up one seat in Congress: Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina and Utah.

• Arizona could pick up two congressional seats, but its map is drawn by an independent commission.

April 19, 2023

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States where statehouse term limits will apply in 2010

• Arizona

• Arkansas

• California

• Colorado

• Florida

• Maine

• Michigan

April 19, 2023

• Missouri

• Montana

• Nebraska

• Nevada

• Ohio

• Oklahoma

• South Dakota

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AGs looking at the governorship

• Arizona

• California

• Florida

• Georgia

• Michigan

April 19, 2023

• New York

• Oklahoma

• Pennsylvania

• Rhode Island

• South Carolina

21April 19, 2023

Barbara RosewiczBrosewicz@pewtrusts.org

Stephen C. Fehrsfehr@pewtrusts.org

Pamela M. Prahpprah@pewtrusts.org

Christine Vestalcvestal@pewtrusts.org

State of the States 2010