World Population growth

The world’s population has grown exponentially. This means that the rate of growth has become increasingly rapid and the line graph becomes steeper over time. Between 1AD and 1000AD growth was slow, but in the last thousand years it has been dramatic. By 2000, there were 10 times as many people living as there had been 300 years before in 1700.

It took until 1800 to reach 1

billion. It then took 123 years for that population to double to 2 billion people. Since 1950 the world has seen a population explosion – reaching 6 billion in

1999. Between 2006 and 2007, 211,090 people were added to the world

population every day! The vast majority of this growth has been in LEDCs. Growth is predicted to continue but now the rate is slowing down. Population is likely to rise to 9.2 billion by 2050 and finally peak a century

later in 2150 at 10 billion. This should then be followed by a period of zero growth or even natural decrease.

The Demographic Transition Model

This model explains how birth and death rates change across the world and through time. It includes the main period of a country’s development and shows the links between demographic and economic changes. There are five

Population

Key terms

Birth rate – the number of births per 1000 population per year Death rate – the number of deaths per 1000 population per year Natural increase – the birth rate exceeds the death rate Natural decrease – the death rate exceeds the birth rate Zero growth – birth rate is equal to death rate, so there is no growth or

decrease Natural change – the difference between birth and date rate, expressed as a

percentage Life expectance – the number of years a person is expected to live

J CurveExponential growth

S CurveZero growthExponential growth

stages. The fifth stage was added more recently due to changes in parts of Europe.

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5High

fluctuatingEarly

expandingLate

expandingLow

fluctuatingNatural

decreaseUK time scale Pre 1760 1760-1880 1880-1940 Post 1940 -Birth rate High High Decreasing

rapidlyLow Low

Death rate High Decreasing Decreasing slowly

Low Increased slightly

Natural increase

Low and stable

Population grows

Growing but more slowly

Low Natural decrease

Countries None (only tribes in Amazonia)

LEDCs e.g. Chad, Ethiopia (mainly Africa)

NICs e.g. Brazil, India, Kenya, China.

MEDCs e.g. Australia, UK, Canada, USA

MEDCs e.g. Sweden, Italy, Japan, Germany

Explanation of the characteristics of the DTM

Stage 1:Birth rate is high because:

There is no birth control or family planning available High infant mortality means that parents produce more children in order

to ensure some survive Children are needed to help work on the land Children are a sign of status amongst men in rural villages Religious ceremonies e.g. burials may need a son to perform them Women may not be able to inherit land, therefore need a son No pensions – need a son to look after you in old age

Death rate is high because: Poor hygiene – no piped clean water, no sewage disposal – this spreads

diseases quickly Lack of medical facilities – few vaccinations, hospitals and doctors if you

become ill Poor diet and possible famines

Stage 2:Birth rate remains high, but the death rate falls. Life expectancy increases and hygiene improves. The countries where this applies are normally agricultural. Children are needed to work the land as they can produce more food than they eat. This keeps the birth rate high.

Death rate is falling because: Improvements in medical facilities – vaccinations, hospitals and doctors Improvements in sanitation and water supply Improvements in transport – easier to access doctors and food supplies Decrease in infant mortality

Stage 3:The birth rate falls quickly and the death rate starts to level out.

The birth rate falls because: Family planning is available and accepted by people Reduced infant mortality and therefore less need to have large families More people live in urban areas – less need for children to help with

farming Equal rights for women – able to inherit land etc therefore less need for a

boy Pensions available therefore do not need children to look after you in old

age Women wanting careers and therefore delaying marriage and child birth Compulsory education means that children are no longer a financial asset

– they cannot bring money into the household and their education costs. People become more materialistic, therefore smaller families are more

desirable

Stage 4:Birth rate and death rate are low and steady due to economic reasons. Economic recession and growth can affect the birth rate as children are expensive.

Stage 5:Death rate is slightly higher than birth rate. In Eastern Europe an uncertain economy discourages people from having babies, while Western Europe economies give young women so many career opportunities that they decide to be childless or to postpone motherhood.

Death rate higher because: Countries have an ageing population, as there is a high proportion of

elderly people the death rate naturally increases

Factors affecting population growth

Population Pyramids and the DTM

The population pyramid or age-gender pyramid shows the population structure of a country, city or other area.

It shows: The total population divided

into five-year age groups e.g. 0-4 years, 5-9 years etc

The percentage of the total population, for males and females in each of these age groups.

The population pyramid should always add up to 100%

Agricultural changesAs technology improves so do the yields and it saves labour. This frees some workers for industry. In the UK during the industrial revolution, factories needed a large workforce, so for a while larger families were a benefit. Soon, however, technological advances reduced the need for labour, making smaller families more desirable.

UrbanisationRural to urban migration is common in poorer countries as cities are believed to have greater opportunities. One major reason for such migration is to seek better education for children. Children’s labour is therefore of less value in cities than in rural areas so families become smaller in size

Emancipation and status of womenAs economies develop and education improves, opportunities for girls increase alongside those for boys. Reaching a good standard of living require two incomes. Over time, prejudice against women holding more senior positions at work reduces. Equality increases and is perceived as not only acceptable but desirable. Successful careers require a time commitment, leaving less opportunity for taking maternity leave or caring for children. Some women chose to not have children or have them later in life, which means they have fewer children. Childcare is also expensive so this plays a role in the size of a family.

EducationAs educational achievement increases, standards of living improve and children become an economic disadvantage. Fewer children means parents have more money to be spent on each one, giving them better future chances.

Key terms

Infant mortality rate – the number of babies that die under a year of age, per 1000 live births

Child mortality rate – the number of children that die under five years of age, per 1000 live births

Apex

Base

Stage 1 of the DTM

Stage 2 of the DTM

Stage 3 of the DTM

The top of the pyramid is narrow showing that few people live into old age. The life expectancy is therefore low = narrow and low apex

The base of the pyramid is wide, showing a high number of children, therefore the birth rate is high: up to 50 per 1000 per year.

The pyramid is concave shaped showing a high infant and child mortality rate (only 50% may reach their fifth birthday)

High birth rate + high death rate = stage one of the DTM

The top of the pyramid is wider than stage one but there are still not many above 60 years old. Life expectancy is improving.

The pyramid is triangular shaped showing that more people born are living into adulthood. The death rate is therefore decreasing. This means the pyramid is slightly less concave

The base of the pyramid is still wide, showing a high number of children, therefore the birth rate is high.

High birth rate + falling death rate = stage two of the DTM

The top of the pyramid is wide with a high proportion of people living beyond 60 year old. Life expectancy is high due to healthcare improvements.

The pyramid is rounded showing that few people die prematurely. The death rate is therefore low.

The base of the pyramid is narrower than stage 2, showing fewer people being born. The birth rate is therefore falling.

Stage 4 of the DTM

Stage 5 of the DTM

Gender differences in LEDC pyramidsUrban areas of many countries at lesser stages of development are predominantly male in all age groups up to 60-64. Rural-urban migration in search of work occurs in LEDCs means that men and older boys leave the women, younger children and elderly behind in rural areas. Cities offer greater

Falling birth rate + low death rate = stage three of the DTM

The top of the pyramid is wide with a high proportion of people living beyond 60 years old. Life expectancy is high.

The pyramid is rounded showing that few people die prematurely. The death rate is therefore low.

The base of the pyramid is narrow, showing fewer people being born. The birth rate is therefore low.

Low birth rate + low death rate = stage four of the DTM

The middle aged generation is much larger than the young generation because of low birth rates. When this group reach old age there will be few adults of working age to support them.

The apex is higher with increasingly more numbers of very elderly people. This leads to an ‘Ageing population’.

The base of the pyramid is narrowing as the birth rate is reducing even further.

Low birth rate + higher death rate = stage five of the DTM

opportunities to earn money, which can be sent back home to improve the family’s standard of living. This migration then affects the population pyramids for both rural and urban areas. Dependency Ratio

The dependency ratio shows how many people who do not work (due to their age) are being supported by people who do. The ratio is:

Non economically active (children 0-14 and elderly 65+) * 100Economically active (those of working age 15-64)

e.g. UK figures 2001 (in millions) 11 + 9 * 100 = 53 38

This means for every 100 people of working age there were 53 people dependent upon them. In 2007 this number rose to 61 people.

Problems of a growing population

Problems of having a growing population

Increased demand for food

Overgrazing

Over cultivationOver irrigation

Salinisation

Less vegetation cover

Increased soil erosion by wind and rain

Infertile soil

less food produced

Desertification

Increased demand for fuel wood

Trees and bushes cut down

Social problems

OvercrowdingPoor housing

High unemployment

Poor public services

Environmental Problems

CongestionAir pollutionShanty towns develop

Political problems

Planning and paying for public services

Schools and hospitals

Sewers, clean water

Housing

The higher the dependency ratio the more pressure on working people to support people who are not of working age

In MEDCs the Dependency ratio will increase which means that the government will have to fund more pensions and more health care for the elderly. There will be less people of working age and this can cause problems in terms of money gained from taxes, which in turn could affect the economy.

China: The One Child Policy

The problem

In 1973 Chinas population reached 1 billion people.

It was predicted to reach 1.8 billion people by 2025

This would cause widespread famine

The solution:In 1979 China implemented the One Child Policy

Rules

Couples must have permission from government officials to marry

Women must be at least 25 before they marry

Couples must sign an agreement promising to have only one baby

Women must ask officials for permission to try for a baby.

Incentives

Free health careA monthly

allowance

Priority for housing

Improved pension

Punishments

Forced abortions up to 8 months pregnant

Repay all benefits

Pay a fine - up to 1yr salary

Lose all benefits

How successful was it?

Successes

Birth rates have fallen

Population is expected to peak at 1.47 billion people rather than the predicted 1.8 billion people

Reduced risk of famine

Failures

The policy was not successful in rural areas and had to be 'relaxed' to two children per couple

Army of Batchelors

Parents favoured boys

Female infanticide

Imbalace in ratio of boys to girls

Children spoilt

'Little Emporers'

Case study: China – a sustainable population?

A sustainable population is one whose growth and development is at a rate that does not threaten the success of future generations. Countries at Stage 4 of the DTM with low birth and death rates are the most sustainable. Stage 5 populations are not sustainable because numbers are decreasing.

During the 1970’s the Chinese government realised that the country was heading for famine unless severe changes were made quickly. The ‘One Child’ policy was introduced in 1979 and families were encouraged to stick to it by receiving a 5-10% salary rise for limiting their family to one child amongst other incentives below.

The ‘Granny Police’ – older women of the community entrusted with the task of keeping everyone in line – kept a regular check on couples of childbearing age, even accompanying women on contraception appointments to make sure they attended. It is estimated that there are 400 million fewer people due to the policy.

Changes to the ‘One Child’ policy Young couples who are both only children are allowed

two children Government workers must set an example and stick to one

With increasing wealth, more people are able to break the rules and pay the fines and take the consequences of having a second child.

In rural areas if a family had a daughter they could try again for a boy.

A typical Chinese child today will have 2 parents and 4 grandparents to look after when they reach old age. A married couple may have up to 4 parents and 8 grandparents to look after! By 2020, men will outnumber women by 30 million. Healthcare and services will be needed to support their ageing populations.

Case Study: Kerala – an alternative birth control programme

In 1952 India launched a national family planning programme based on contraception and social changes. Kerala, in South-Western India, focused on social changes to create a society with smaller families. It has had the most dramatic birth rate decrease in the whole of India. Kerala has a population of 32 million and a density of 819 people per km² which is three times the Indian average. It’s a region which is in stage 4 of the DTM.

Kerala’s policy to reduce its previously high population growth rate has involved:

Improving education standards and treating girls as equal to boys Providing adult literacy classes in towns and villages Educating people to understand the benefits of smaller families Reducing infant mortality so people no longer need to have so many

children Improving child healthcare through vaccination programmes Providing free contraception and advice Encouraging a higher age of marriage – on average 4 years later Allowing maternity leave for the first two babies only Providing extra retirement benefits for those with smaller families Following a land reform programme. Land was redistributed so that no

one was landless. This meant that no family was allowed more than 8ha and everyone could then be self-sufficient. If you had more children then the food you produced had to go further so this would be a disadvantage.

A success?Today more girls go to university than boys. The ‘Right to Literacy’ programme organises reading and writing classes in villages, however remote, and they have free libraries. This improves the status of education.

Population Problems in MEDCs - Ageing Populations

An ageing population is defined as one where the mean (average) age is increasing. In many MEDC countries such as the UK there are now more people over 65 years old than under 16 years old. The reasons for this include:

They are entering into stage 5 of the demographic transition model where the birth rate is slightly lower than the death rate

The birth rate is low due to the availability of contraception, good healthcare reducing infant mortality rates, and the high cost of children

Adult literacy rate is now 91% Life expectancy is 73 years Birth rate is now 18 per 1000 people per

year Death rate is now 6 people per 1000 per

year Natural increase is 1.2% Children born per women is 1.66 (average) 95% of babies are born in hospital

The United Kingdom: An ageing population

Government

There is a shortage of people in the armed forces

There are fewer people to work

Higher dependency ratio

Higher taxes

More money needed for pensions

More money needed for healthcare: cancer, hip operations etc

More money needed for social care e.g. care homes, meals on wheels

Economy would suffer

Elderly

The retirement age has been raised from 60-65 years and will potentially increase again to 68 years

Switch money from resources for children e.g. maternity wards

More money needed for subsidies e.g. bus passes

Raise taxes

Encourage migration of people into the country who are in shortage areas e.g. teachers

Reduces the dependency ratio and therefore taxes

Encourage an increase in the birth rate

increase maternity pay in the UK from 6months to 9 months

Introduce paternity leave - one week paid leave in the UK

Increase the retirement age

Reduce the dependency ratio

Many people have to live alone as partners die

Most cannot afford residential homes - £2000 a month

Forced to see their house and use their savings

Many are fit enough to work but face prejudice due to their age

Fear of crime

Isolate in rural areas

Key

= Problems= Solutions

Also lower the dependency ratio

The death rate is low due to a high standard to medical care, good diet and therefore a higher life expectancy.

Britain’s population is ageing as a result of extended life-spans brought about by improvements to diet, health and safety during the Twentieth Century. At the same time, fewer people are born, as birth rates fall due to the ‘professionalisation’ of women. Mothers now have 1.7 children on average compared with 2.5 in 1970.

Other consequences A recent survey suggested that as many as 45% of the pensioners it

surveyed lived in poverty, with 15% saying that they had gone without food.

In towns such as Worthing (where 40% are over 60) there are many opportunities for young people to work in care homes or services catering for older people. It is possible for a local positive multiplier effect to develop.

The elderly have savings that they spend locally. The elderly provide the grey brain – a wealth of knowledge and skills

which can be used in jobs past retirement age.

Already, 18% of the UK population are over pensionable age. By 2040 this is expected to rise to 25%. This rapid rise is also due to the post-war baby-boom generation of the late 1940s and early 1950s reaching retirement age. They are an unusually large cohort - the offspring of families re-united after the Second World War (1939-45). In 2008, there were 1.3 million people in the UK over 85 – that’s twice the number in 1983.

The newly retired contribute a great deal to the economy as they are relatively wealthy and have lots of leisure time. They spend money on travel and recreation providing jobs in the service sector.

Many do voluntary work and some still do paid work and therefore pay taxes.

More housing is needed (in 1996 it was suggested that 4.4 million new homes would be needed in the UK by 2016). This is partly due to increases in life expectancy, meaning housing stock is occupied longer by each individual than in the past. Much of this building will take place in lowland areas, often floodplains, and contributes to growing flood risk, especially in southern England (impermeable surfaces promote run-off).

A lack of mobility leading to isolation of elderly people. It would require £300 million to provide the elderly with free public transport to enable them to maintain their independence and reduce loneliness.

Winter fuel allowance now available to help with the cost of fuel bills in winter.

UK solutions to an Ageing population

Reduce the dependency ratio by increasing the birth rate. Increase maternity leave for working women. In 2007 the UK paid

statutory maternity leave was increased from 6 months to 9 months, with a further 3 months unpaid leave allowed.

Paternity leave was introduced in 2003. This entitled fathers to one week paid leave and one week at statutory pay (£100) in addition to their normal annual leave.

Baby bonds: Parents are given a bond of £200 in the child’s name, which is put in a savings account of the parents’ choice, but could not be accessed until the child turned 18

Retirement The government has increased the retirement age to 68 years. This

means that the elderly are contributing to the tax system for longer, and whilst working they are not entitled to a state pension. This reduces the dependency ratio.

Changes to the law in the UK ensure that people over the age of fifty are not discriminated against in the workplace. Employers are no longer allowed to forcibly retire people and are not allowed to refuse to employ anyone based upon their age. This adds to the workforce and allows skills and knowledge to be transferred to younger workers.

Immigration Immigration of selected people with skills which are in shortage within

the UK is now in force. For example: Nigerian nurses to work in the NHS and teachers from commonwealth countries such as Australia and New Zealand.

Helping the elderly Some supermarkets have reorganised their stores so that shelves are

lower so that they can be easily reached by the elderly.

Builders have started building estates especially designed for those over fifty. These allow those over fifty to still reside in their own property but have a warden on call encase they are unwell or get into difficulties. The properties are also sold at a cheaper price than similar sized normal housing.

Finally, the government has also had to shift provision of services from those geared towards the young, such as maternity wards and youth centres to those for the elderly such as geriatric wards and bingo halls.

Migration

Migration is the movement of a person from one permanent home to another with the intention of staying at least a year.

Type of migration Definition Example

International

Movement across a political border (to another country)

Mexicans into the United States of America

National Movement within a country Brazilians from the countryside into Sao Paulo

ForcedMovement against your own free will either due to natural factors (e.g. drought) or human factors (e.g. war)

Rwandan refugees moving to into Uganda

Voluntary Moving of your own free will Turks moving into Germany after WWII

Permanent Movement with no intention of returning to the original area

Retirement to the south coast from inner London.

SeasonalMovement for a season, returning when that season has ended

Mexicans migrating into the USA for work during the autumn harvest

Temporary Movement with an intention to return to the original area

A gap year student travelling around Australia for a year.

N.B. you can be more than one type of migrant at one time. For example the Rwandan refugees are: forced, temporary, international migrants. However, you cannot be an international, national migrant at the same time – that’s why they are in the same colour – you have to choose!

Push/Pull Factors

Key terms

Immigrant – someone entering a new country with the intention of living there

Emigrant – someone leaving their country of residence to move to another country

Destination country – the country where a migrant settles Country of origin – the country from which a migration starts

Push Factors – these are the things that people dislike about the place they live. They are the disadvantages of living there e.g. high unemployment.

Pull Factors – these are the things that attract people to a new area. They are the advantages of moving there e.g. low unemployment.

Case Study: Turks to Germany – movement within the EU

After WWII West Germany needed rebuilding so there were many job vacancies than workers available, so extra workers were needed. West Germany therefore attracted workers from poorer parts of southern Europe and the Middle East. Jobs that were filled by Turkish immigrants were in agriculture originally and then in the factories and the construction industry. These were the kind of jobs the Germans did not want to do themselves as they were poorly paid, dirty, unskilled, and demanded long and unsociable hours.

By 1989, West Germany had 4.5 million ‘guest workers’. 29% of these came from Turkey. In 1973, West Germany put a ban on the recruitment of foreign workers although the Turks still arrived to reunite their families or seek political asylum. In 1980, new laws reduced the right of asylum and grants were offered to Turks wishing to return home. Few took advantage of this.

After the Berlin Wall came down, East Germans migrated into West Germany as the country was reunited. Many of these new immigrants were prepared to take the jobs previously taken by the Turkish. By the 1990s nearly 10% of

Key terms

Asylum seeker - A person who is at risk if they stay in their own country.

Refugee - A person who settles in another country as a result of being at risk if they remain in their own country.

Germans and 30% of Turks were unemployed due to political asylum of the Yugoslavs and the world recession.

Case Study: Senegal to Italy – movements from outside the EU

Billy migrated to Brescia, a town in Italy's industrial heartland on the foothills of the Italian Alps in 2000; it took him 6 months. Migrants who have migrated here have set up their own mini home from home. Several hundred immigrants, mostly Senegalese men, have completely taken over a hostel, with up to 16 sharing a single room. At the weekend, Senegalese clothes and food are displayed for sale outside the front entrance, giving it the appearance of a West African market. There is also a mosque. The immigrants have even got a satellite dish which picks up Senegalese television and use special radio sets to listen to broadcasts from home.

Case Study: Iraq to Sweden – refugees

In 2007 alone, 18,599 Iraqis applied for asylum in Sweden - far more than anywhere else in the EU. By 2007, 70,000 Iraqis already lived in Sweden.

The benefitsFor the migrants:

Safe from persecution

For the country: Provide workers for

manufacturing companies such as the Scania truck manufacturer and the AstraZeneca pharmaceutical company

Cultural benefits e.g. food. They also have their own football teams

The drawbacksFor the country:

Too many refugees are moving into a country with a small population: An estimated 40% of Soedertaelje's 80,000 inhabitants are first or second-generation immigrants.

Soedertaelje's mayor, Anders Lago, estimates that about 30 asylum seekers arrive from Iraq each week

Senegal is one of the world's poorest countries, with approximately 34 percent of its population living on less than $1.25 a day, Senegal ranks 144 out of 169 countries for wealth. Senegal's population is estimated at 12.9 million, with 68 percent under the age of 25 and 57 percent living in rural areas. Not everyone has access to basic education, and illiteracy is widespread, especially among women and girls. Consequently, migration from Senegal is high.

Up to 15 are sharing one apartment - diseases spread quickly. They are often unhealthy and are putting a strain on health services

They have little Swedish Jobs are hard to come by putting a strain on social services such as

unemployment benefits and housing

Closing the doorTo ease that strain, the government introduced a number of measures, including a proposal that would only allow immigrants to bring in their families once they can prove they can feed and house them.

In 2007, Sweden's Migration Board approved 72% of all Iraqi asylum requests. The Migration Board, however, has since ruled there is no longer an armed conflict in Iraq. In January and February of 2008, the majority of Iraqi requests for asylum were turned down. In 2009 the governments of Great Britain, the Netherlands, Sweden and Norway began forcibly repatriating Iraqi asylum seekers despite concerns expressed by the UN. European governments are using repatriation as a way to discourage Iraqis from choosing Europe as a place of refuge.