tomorrow is not just another day blue-way-germany.de San Francisco, March 20, 2002 Slide 1 © 2002, Ulrich Goluke All Rights Reserved Sustainability,

Sustainability, The New Business [email protected]

. . . tomorrow is not just another day

blue-way-germany.de

San Francisco, March 20, 2002

Slide 1

© 2002, Ulrich GolukeAll Rights Reserved

Sustainability as theNew Business Paradigm


Ulrich Goluke

[email protected]://www.blue-way-germany.de



blue-way-germany.de


Slide 2


Another new paradigm?

You must be joking!



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I truly wish I was!

But it gets even worse, I want to interest you in a completely new CLASS of paradigm.

WHY?



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All paradigms you know - and have suffered from as they blew through your offices - are cost reduction paradigms, because essentially, we look at the world in this way:



blue-way-germany.de


Slide 5


AvailabilityPrice

QualityMassCustomizationProductServicePortfolio



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Living in a hyper-networked, ‘real-time’ economy, this view of the world only allows you to meet everyone on availability, mass-customization and quality and compete on price.

AvailabilityPrice

QualityMassCustomizationProductServicePortfolio



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Slide 7


AvailabilityPriceQualityMassCustomization

ProductServicePortfolio???



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So what are these ‘???’Reputation?Attention?Corporate Social Responsibility?High Tech, High Touch?Simplicity?Fashion?

Let’s look at two deep trends…



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Slide 9


The “old” daysBufferHuman ImpactNature1. What’s our impact?

In the ‘old days’ - NOTHING!

Events were independentEvents were self limiting in timeEvents were self limiting in spacehence we could learn in our own sweet time from trial and error

Sound familiar?



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Slide 10


??The “old” daysTodayBuffer

Human ImpactNatureBufferHuman ImpactNature

HumanImpactNatureBuffer



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??TodayBufferHuman ImpactNature

HumanImpactNatureBuffer

1. What’s our impact?

We matter:20% of all human lives lived on earth were lived in the last century;In the last 100 years we used as much energy as in all the 4 mill years before.John McNeill, 2001, Something New Under the Sun, W.W. Norton & Company



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0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1700 1850 now 2050 2100

???

Service

Manufacturing

Agriculture

2. How do we spend our time?

Grübler, A, Technology and Global Change, 1998, Cambridge University PressLebergott, S, Consumer Expenditures, 1995, Princeton University Press



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Slide 13


0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1700 1850 now 2050 2100

???

Service

Manufacturing

Agriculture


biologicalsafetyattachementself actualizationcognitiveesteemtranscendenceaesthetic

Maslow’s hierachy of needsMaslow, A, 1998, Maslow on Management, Wiley, NY



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Slide 14


0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1700 1850 now 2050 2100

???

Service

Manufacturing

Agriculture


<— Material constrained“Meaning” constrained —>



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Slide 15


• Materialconstrained

– Linear– Power based on

physical assets– More is always

better

– I am my function– I adapt– Scarcity

• Meaning constrained

– Closed loops– Power based on

network assets– What do you really

need?– Who am I?– I learn– Sustainability



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Slide 16





better








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better








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better








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better








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better








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• From– Subsistence– Identity– Relation– Purpose– Legacy

… carried by the vector of scarcity

• To– Subsistence– Identity– Relation– Purpose– Legacy

… carried by the vector of sustainability

The center of gravity of our world is tipping…



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Slide 22


•The 3 drivers that matter– The Many: 6, 9, 12 billion people– The Connected: Everybody knows

everything about you all the time (if you want to)

– The New: Social Innovation

•The Stories– The Space: Governance, Carrying Capacity– The Paths: F.R.O.G, GEOpolity, JAZZ

www.wbcsd.org/course/gsc/web/main.htm



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Governance

(More resilient)

(Less resilient)

1996Carrying Capacity

(More cohesive)(Less cohesive)

JAZZ

F.R.O.G.

GEOpolity



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Who lives in this world?– ~300 mill in N.A.– ~400 mill in Europe– ~400 mill in India– ~400 mill in China– 1.5 billion out of 7 billion: ~20% of humanity

until 2-3 generations ago, only 1 out 10,000 did so, the ‘kings’ and ‘queens’

a 2,000 fold increase in a time to short to measure historically — hold on, we are tipping as I speak!



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Hero Religious Scientific Economic ???

Goal Excellence Goodness Truth Growth Dignity

Actors Hero, Adversaries Saints, Prophets Philosophers,Scientists

ConsumerBusiness

Citizens

LanguageStories Prayers, Scripture MathematicsLogical Arguments

ImagesNumbers

ValuesSymbolsEmotions

Behavior Competition Obedience, Ritual Reason, Debate Maximizingadvantage

Creativity

H

G N

N

G H

H

N G

G

N H

Adapted from Betty Sue Flowers



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Slide 26


• How many people is the earth able to sustain?

“The question is incomplete as it stands. One must modify the question by asking further: at what level of technology? And modify it still further by asking: at what level of human dignity?

Isaac Asimov, 1974



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Slide 27


… and remember,

the Stone Age did not end because of a lack of stones.

“Chance only favors the prepared mind,”said Louis Pasteur.

Thank you.

Documents

tomorrow is not just another day blue-way-germany.de San Francisco, March 20, 2002 Slide 1 © 2002, Ulrich Goluke All Rights Reserved Sustainability,