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© T. M. Whitmore
Today
•Economic Development: Diversity Amid Globalization
•“Sectors” of an Economy
•Basic human Demography
© T. M. Whitmore
Development = bettering of society or of a people (many definitions)•Sustainable development
•Measures of development Economic measures Non‑economic measures - $$ isn’t the best measure necessarily
•Not linear or inevitable.•Connections to colonialism and
globalization.
© T. M. Whitmore
Development and colonialism
•Global integration has a long and ugly history.
•Particularly important was the control and settlement of overseas territories by European states over the past 500 years.
© T. M. Whitmore
Effects of colonialism•Removal and replacement of
local power structures, institutions, economies and populations.
•Enduring connections to colonial powers – early globalization
•Global “underdevelopment”?
Globalization
•A process of global integration
•Underlying causes are primarily economic and technological
•Economic, demographic, social, cultural, political and environmental manifestations
© T. M. Whitmore
Primary “Sector” of economies
•Agriculture and raw material production (mining)
•Relatively slow growing economically
•World’s resources are very unevenly distributed
© T. M. Whitmore
Secondary Sector of economies
•Transformation of raw materials into manufactured goods;
•Formerly dominated the economy of richest nations, but no longer
•Greater growth potential than primary
© T. M. Whitmore
Tertiary Sector of economies•Provision of services (burger
flippers to college profs)•Now largest sector in richest
nations•Good growth potential•Quaternary Sector: A part of the
tertiary sector involved in information processing; Very rapidly growing in richest nations
Demography Concepts I
•Population growth (usually %/yr) Population growth = births – deaths (rate of natural increase)
+/- migration
•Exponential growth P2 = P1 * e(rt)
the “magic of compounding” e = natural logr = rate of growth/ yrt = number of yrs
•MortalityDeath rate: deaths per 1000 pop/yr
Eo (life expectancy at birth)
Demography Concepts II
•Fertility (birth rate) – 2 measures1: Births per thousand pop/yr 2: Total Fertility Rate (TFR) (total children born/mother in her lifetime)TFR = 2.1 => “replacement level fertility” no growth –parents just replace themselves
Demography Concepts III
•“Recent” population history
•Birth (fertility) and death (mortality) rates world wide
•Annual increment in world population
•Growth in Developed vs Developing (rich vs poor or Global North vs Global South) countries
•Current state of global populations
Current World Demography
© T. M. Whitmore
Demographic Transition Model
•Idea from W European history•Stages of change in mortality and
fertility => growth over time•Urbanization and industrialization•Different parts of the world are seen
to be in different stages or phases•Different population age structures
Rapidly growing = youngSlow growing = old
Population Movements•Migration
VoluntaryForced (e.g., Refugees)Push vs. Pull Factors
• International migrationRemittances
•Rural to Urban migration
© T. M. Whitmore
Urbanization
•Global N vs S differences
•Urbanization increasing everywhere:Especially in the in global S
•Megacities increasing in size and number
© T. M. Whitmore
Key Concepts in EnvironmentPatterns & Processes:
Landforms•How to explain patterns of:
Mountain chainsTectonic hazardsShape of continents
•Plate Tectonics•Geomorphology/rock cycle
© T. M. Whitmore
Plate Tectonics•1912 Alfred Wegner’s
“continental drift”•Plate tectonics (1960s-70s):
moving “plates” hold all the oceans and continents
© T. M. Whitmore
Plate Tectonics II•Moving “plates”
Sea floor spreading (divergent plates)
Subduction (convergent plates) Pangaea
•Terrestrial hazards: Earthquakes and volcanoes“ring of fire”
Development: Income DiversityDevelopment: Income Diversity
Developed (rich, north) world
Undeveloped (poor, south) world
World Institute for Development Economics Research United Nations University (UNU-WIDER) 2006
Development Diversity: WealthDevelopment Diversity: Wealth
World Institute for Development Economics Research United Nations University 2006
Diversity: Internal InequalityDiversity: Internal Inequality
The Gini index is a measure of income inequality.
GNI (GNP) per CapitaRich Global “North” vs Poor Global “South”
N
S
Infant MortalityInfant Mortality
Life Life expectancyexpectancy
IlliteracIlliteracyy
Life expectancy differentials by Life expectancy differentials by sexsex
Social DevelopmentSocial Development
Marston et al., 2007, World Regions in Global Context.
Colonial Possessions in 1714
Colonial Possessions in 1914
Colonial powers profited from gold and silver, slaves, opium and agricultural products extracted from colonies.
Colonialism & Global N & SColonialism & Global N & S
Marston et al., 2007, World Regions in Global Context.
Marston et al., 2007, World Regions in Global Context.
Kareiva et al., 2007, Science
Shipping lanes reveal our interlinked world.
0
5
10
15
20
25
2001 2002-Q2 2002 2003-Q2 2003 2004-Q2 2004 2005-Q2 2005
Canada
Japan
United States
United Kingdom
France
OECD
Germany
Italy
Broadband penetration, historic, G7 countries
Source : OECD
The US is at the center of globalization in many ways.
The Economist, 1997
Marston et al., 2007, World Regions in Global Context.
One pair of jeans, twelve countries.
Economic Globalization: World Economic Globalization: World TradeTrade
Economic Globalization: Illicit Economic Globalization: Illicit TradeTrade
Figure 1.7
A.D.
2000
A.D.
1000
A.D.
1
1000
B.C.
2000
B.C.
3000
B.C.
4000
B.C.
5000
B.C.
6000
B.C.
7000
B.C.
1+ million
years
8
7
6
5
2
1
4
3
OldStone
Age New Stone AgeBronze
Age
Iron
AgeMiddle
Ages
Modern
Age
Black Death — The Plague
9
10
11
12
A.D.
3000
A.D.
4000
A.D.
5000
1800
1900
1950
1975
2000
2100
FutureBill
ion
s
Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).
World Population Growth Through World Population Growth Through HistoryHistory
Of all people who have ever lived, ~10% are alive now.
The total fertility rate is the mean number of children born per woman, and must be 2.1 for the population to replace itself. Four out of nine people live in countries which have dipped below this.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1936-1938
1946-1948
1955-1960
1960-1965
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
Birth rate Death rate
Natural Increase
© 2003, Population Reference Bureau
Birth & Death Rates Worldwide
Millions
Annual Increase in Annual Increase in World PopulationWorld Population
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
19
51
19
56
19
61
19
66
19
71
19
76
19
81
19
86
19
91
19
96
20
01 ©
200
3, P
opul
atio
n R
efer
ence
Bur
eau
We are here
Billions
Growth in More & Less Growth in More & Less Developed CountriesDeveloped Countries
Less Developed Countries (South)
More Developed Countries (North)
Total World population
© 2
003,
Pop
ulat
ion
Ref
eren
ce B
urea
u
Exponential (ultimately logistic) growth
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.
Projected Population Change, 2005-2050
World Population ~ 6.55 billionr (%/yr) = 1.2%; TFR = 2.7; ~ 48% urban
India & ChinaEach > 1 billion
Less Developed world (south): ~ 5.3br = 1.5-1.8%; TFR = 2.9-3.4; ~ 41%
urban
More Developed world (north): ~ 1.2br = 0.1%; TFR = 1.6; ~ 77% urban
N
S
Demographic Transition Model
Global NorthGlobal South
Population Age Structure -Population Pyramids
44% < age 15; 3% > 65 21% < age 15; 13% > 65
New York Times, 2007
International Migration
Many migrants move from poor to rich countries.
New York Times, 2007
International Migrant RemittancesWorld Remittances =40% of Foreign investment140% of Development aid
Global UrbanizationGlobal Urbanization
N
S
By 2008, for the first time in world history, 50% of all people will live in cities.
© National Geographic Society
By 2015By 2015
© National Geographic Society
MegacitiesMegacities
1 billion live in slums. They include 70% of urban dwellers in Africa.
© T. M. Whitmore
© T. M. Whitmore
*
*
© T. M. Whitmore
© T. M. Whitmore
divergent
convergent
Divergent (spreading) plates
© T. M. Whitmore
divergent
convergent
Convergent (colliding) plates
© T. M. Whitmore
Pangaea
180 m yrs BP
Present
© T. M. Whitmore
divergent
convergent
© T. M. Whitmore
Antigua, Guatemala
© T. M. Whitmore
Michoacán, Mexico