-Strategy Planning Report

Greka Company Wells Schedule at GSS in 2011 The Combined Main Gas Header & 5km Pipeline Projects Strategy Planning

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Wells Schedule at GSS in 2011

Combined MainGas Header & 5km Pipeline Projects

Strategy Planning Report

June, 2011~ 2012

2011/3/8

GREKA Company

Compiler: Yang Lu

Check: Alex Lee Guo xiuquan

Approve: S.W.Leung


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Catalog

1. Narrative description

2. GSS Strategy Planning Report- Average Report of Per Month for Gas Production

3. GSS Strategy Planning Report- Diviation of Peak Value Report of Per Month for Gas Production

4. GSS Strategy Planning Report-Impact factors Report of Gas Production

5. Analysis of report

6. Estimation of Probability of schedule

7. Compartion by analysis of schedule

8. Illustration and Diagram-Attachment and Exhibit

9. Risk and Warning

10. Conclusion and Suggestion

11. Questions and remain opinions

Note: You can hold “ctrl+the left button of mouse “to switch to the underline position

relative and you also can hold “ctrl+the left button of mouse “to come back the previous

position.


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Content

1. Narrative description

The expect quantity of total gas is 18BFC,the duration from 2011.Jan.1 to 2012.Dec.31.We have already about 28 wells until

Dec.2011 and each well produce 8,500 M3 /day,according to the anticipative estimation , we calculated and got some results. It can

be seen from item 2-GSS Strategy Planning Report- Average Report of Per Month for Gas Production and item 3-GSS Strategy

Planning Report- Diviation of Peak Value Report of Per Month for Gas Production. We can knew the analysis results from the item 4-

GSS Strategy Planning Report-Impact factors Report of Gas Production, item 5- Analysis of report,item 6- Estimation of Probability of

schedule and item 7- Compartion by analysis of schedule.We can predict the risk and warn the relative the major character &

department in charge .We can know the details of schedule frome the attachment- ( 5 KM pipeline project ).The attachment-5 KM

pipeline project report can be devided into 2 parts.

1.1. The 1st part is 5km pipelines project(Max capacity 500,000 M3/day)

1.1.1. Project completion (2011.6.30-2011.12.30)

1.1.2. Mandate design institute (2011.2.11)

1.1.3. Design work & drawings (2011.3.15-2011.4.15)

1.1.4. Installation drawings (2011.4.18-2011.5.18)

1.1.5. Tendering of contracting work (2011.5.19-2011.5.26)

1.1.6. Installation (2011.5.30-2011.7.26)

1.1.7. Regulatory procedure (2011.3.11-2011.7.28)

1.1.8. Project application & Feasibility study report (2011.3.11-2011.4.15)

1.2. The 2nd part is Main gas header project(250,000 m3/day)

1.2.1. Project completion (2011.7.4)

Greka Company Wells Schedule at GSS in 2011 The Combined Main Gas Header & 5km Pipeline Projects Strategy Planning 2011-3-8

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1.2.2. Mandate design institute (2011.3.14-2011.3.18)

1.2.3. Design work & drawings (2011.3.21-2011.5.10)

1.2.4. Purchase of booster pump (2011.3.14-2011.5.31)

1.2.5. Tendering of contracting work (2011.5.9-2011.5.16)

1.2.6. Installation (2011.5.11-2011.7.1)

1.2.7. Testing & Commissioning (2011.6.20-2011.7.1)

1.2.8. Drilling plan 2011(28 of 93 only) (2011.2.1-2011.12.30)

2. GSS Strategy Planning Report- Average Report of Per Month for Gas Production

Narrative description:When the two sp manager finished their work , I supplement these description for the paragraph.

Diagram: See the attachment 1

3. GSS Strategy Planning Report- Diviation of Peak Value Report of Per Month for Gas Production

Narrative description:When the two sp manager finished their work , I supplement these description for the paragraph.


4. GSS Strategy Planning Report-Impact factors Report of Gas Production

Narrative description: The impact factors include as follow:

4.1 Labor / Drilling rigs /Funding cost / Funding risk / Project Schedule / Climate of local area / Contractor power / Human impacts /

Chiniese holiday / Bumper harvest festival / and so on

4.2 According the right weight of each impact factors stipulate the percentage,we can see the scale of each impact factors



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5. Analysis of report

5.1 According to the illustration and diagram and statistic datas ,we can see the variance and difference,we know the quantity of total gas of daily ,

the prior 6 months of 2011 year is 680000 , we know the the quantity of total gas of daily which from July.2011 to Dec.2012 is 17127500 , Our

total expect value of coal gas is 18 BFC . We suppose the production of each well is 8500 M3 /day .

5.2 We can see each well is how to distributed during the period of each month by the illustration and diagram 1). We can see the impact factors

is how to impact the project schedule and the production of coal gas of each well by the illustration and diagram 2) & 3).We can see the The variance

of production of gas between 2011 and 2012 by the following diagram.

The variance of production of gas between 2011 and 2012

New production well Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total

Existing Pdn rate

(M3/day)

New inseam laterals 24 22 20 20 20 20 20 18 15 11 3 2 195

Cum.laterals of the

year 24 46 66 86 106 126 146 164 179 190 193 195 195

Total cum.laterals 104 126 146 166 186 206 226 244 259 270 273 275 275

Sales and production

(M3)

Daily Prod M3 314,50

0

425,00

0

603,50

0

790,50

0

994,50

0

1,181,50

0

1,351,50

0

1,521,50

0

1,691,50

0

1,861,50

0

2,031,50

0

2,184,50

0

14,951,50

0


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5.3 We know the actual production of per month of wells by the illustration and diagram 1) and we know if we want to increase the production of

area,we have to wait about four months.It means each well the productive duration on average is four months,we don’t know whether we have

enough labor,drilling rigs,funds and sufficient ,allowable and approved outer construction situation.We can see the effective impact by the

resources curves ,although it is only a mathematic models , I think it is still have reference significance when we distribute the resources.

6. Estimation of Probability of schedule (E.G. Only limit those activitys which have logic relationship)

6.1 Reference formula

The probability chart =p


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б n2=Dispersion (n=1,2,3…)

б = Standard Variance

λ = Probable Value

Tr = Requirment Duration

Ti = The sum of duration for all critical paths

6.2 The critical path

6.2.1 The principle: the path which has the longest time is defined as the critical path.

6.2.2 The format is Activity name ( Activity duration ; a-the shortest time ; c-the probable time ; b-the longest time)

6.2.3 The critical path is

Design Work & Drawings (20-24-30) Civil Work Drawings(20-23-30) Civil Contractor(5-6-10) Civil

Work(30-35-40) Testing & Commissioning(4-5-10) Connection to Main Gas Header & PertroChina's Facility

(1-2-3) Project Completion (Finish milestone)

6.2.4 The activity code:

6.3 The result of the probability for this program

б=3.184 Tr = 127 （days） Ti =95（days）

λ=10.05 so P= 99.87%

6.4 The deviation depend on the the longest time and the shortest time of each activity,if the two kinds of time is not exact,the

finally result of probability is also inaccurate. The deviation depend on the precise of process of calculation at the same time.

6.5 The Gantt bars see the item 7 in the next page


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7. Compartion by analysis of schedule (This difference and variance report can be shown in next weekly report,it can be seen from

the baseline and this weekly schedule .The variance of weekly report is zero )


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Illustration and Diagram--Attachment and Exhibit

1) GSS Strategy Planning Diagram Report-Average Report of Per Month

2011 production target plan

New production

well Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total

Existing Pdn

rate (M3/day)

New inseam

laterals 2 4 4 4 4 4 6 9 13 21 22 93

Cum.laterals of

the year 2 6 10 14 18 22 28 37 50 71 93 93

Total

cum.laterals 13 15 19 23 27 31 35 41 50 63 84 106 106

Sales and

production

(M3)

Daily Prod M3 110,500 110,500 110,500 110,500 110,500 127,500 161,500 195,500 229,500 263,500 297,500 348,500 2,176,000


10


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2012 production target plan

New production

well Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total

Existing Pdn

rate (M3/day)

New inseam

laterals 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 288

Cum.laterals of

the year 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 264 288 288

Total

cum.laterals 117 141 165 189 213 237 261 285 309 333 357 381 381

Sales and

production

(M3)

Daily Prod M3 425,000 535,500 714,000 901,000 1,105,0

00

1,309,0

00

1,513,0

00

1,717,0

00

1,921,0

00

2,125,0

00

2,329,0

00

2,533,0

00 17,127,500


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2) GSS Strategy Planning Diagram Report-Diviation of Peak Value Report of Per Month

Note:There are 12 kinds of resouces curves according to the mathematic model .We can increase or decrease and distribuite the

resouces(include labor,drilling rigs,other equipments,funds,drawings ,other resouces and so on according to the actual situation

of site.

Back loaded

Bell shaped


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Double peak

Early peak


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Front loaded

Linear


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Offset triangular

Three step


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Tranigular decrease

Trapezoidal


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Triangular

Triangular increase


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3) GSS Strategy Planning Diagram Report-Impact factors Report of Gas Production

Item 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Display Labor

Drilling

rigs(drawi

ngs and

accessorie

s)

Funding

risk(fundin

g

diversion)

Funding

cost(marke

t vary)

Project

Schedule

Climate of

local area

Contractor

power

Human

impacts

Chiniese

holiday

Bumper

harvest

festival

Other

factors

Percentage 10% 10% 10% 10% 20% 5% 5% 20% 5% 5% Waiting adjust

after continue

Manpower

Drilling rigs

Funding risk Funding cost

Project ScheduleClimate of local area

Contractor powerHuman impacts

Chiniese holidayBumper harvest festival

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Percentage

10%

10%10%

10%

20%

5%5%

20%

5%5%

Pe

rce

nta

ge

The 3 D graphic of the percentage of each activities

Manpower Drilling rigs Funding risk Funding cost Project Schedule

Climate of local area Contractor power Human impacts Chiniese holiday Bumper harvest festival


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9. Risk and Warning

From the above item 1-8,we know the major risk arising following items.

The Project Schedule ,Human impacts ,Funding risk (funding diversion ) and Funding cost(market vary) ,the four impact factors

account for 60% of the right weight. The Labor and Drilling rigs account for 20% of the right weight.The others factors account

for remaining 20% of the right weight. So we know the sequence of the risk for each factors,we can used a diagram to show it.

10. Conclusion and Suggestion

We will focus our energy on supervising the process of schedule of the program, especially concern the arrival time of each

drilling rigs (involved the drawings,certifications and others accessories) and the situation of funding expensed. We will remind

our management team of pay close attention to the variance that between the actual situation and the plan situation and

further forcast the next step and solve ways.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Percentage

The scale of the priority Bumper harvest festival

Chiniese holiday

Human impacts

Contractor power

Climate of local area

Project Schedule

Funding cost

Funding risk

Drilling rigs

Manpower


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11. Questions and remain opinions

Waiting for add opinions in future during the project executing.

Qusetion one

There are two kinds of results according to the different calculation formulas,these illustrations and diagrams are calculated by

the 1st kind of mathematic formula,if we calculate according to the 2nd kind of mathematic formula maybe get another result.

According to the 2nd kind of mathematic formula The quantity of average gas wells per month in the 2012 is 18×109×

0.0283/12/30/8500/12=14

But according to the 2nd kind of mathematic formula the quantity of average gas wells per month in the 2012 is 24 gas wells per

month,they are different at all.I don’t know why and where’s wrong.

Documents

-Strategy Planning Report