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第九十七期 人:簡錦漢 編:張俊仁 助理編輯:莊孟君 學術會議…………………… 2 學術活動………………….. 16 民國 81 年 1 月 1 日創刊 新出版品…………………… 11 學術交流………………….. 18 民國 105 年 1 月 1 日出刊 (季刊) 經濟預測…………………… 12 網址http://www.econ.sinica.edu.tw/ 本所特聘研究員彭信坤教授榮獲中央研究院 105 年度「深耕計畫」研究經 費支持。

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81 1 1 …………………… 11 ………………….. 18
105 1 1 () …………………… 12
http://www.econ.sinica.edu.tw/


2

104 10 7


15:05-15:20
15:20-16:50



4

8:30 - 9:00
9:00 - 9:10
9:10 - 10:10 I
(University of Chicago Booth School of Business)
(University of Chicago Booth School of Business)
Forecasting with Mixed-Frequency Data
B110
Price Discovery, Jump and News Announcements in Foreign Exchange Markets Yin-Feng Gau (, ),
Zhen-Xing Wu, Jin-Huei Yeh
Chih-Chiang Wu (, ), Chang-Che
Wu
Correlation Dynamics between Stock and Government Bond Markets: Evidence from the European Debt Crisis Li-Min Wang (, ), Yi-Chi Chen,
Ray Yeutien Chou
()
)
Trade Liberalization, Export Participation, and Income Inequality: Evidence from China’s Electrical Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing Industry Chia-Ying Chen (, )
()
()
Keun Lee (Seoul National University) Catch-Up and Post-Catch-Up in Korea and Taiwan: A Neo-Schumpeterian Perspective
14:30 - 15:00
15:00 - 17:00 II
()
) ()

()
Structural Change of China’s Export Sector: The Effect of Renminbi
Revaluation
), Fu-Ching Yang
()
C101
A Stochastic Frontier Model with an Endogenous Treatment Status and a Mediator Yi-Ting Chen, Yu-Chin Hsu, Hung-Jen Wang (,
)
A Two­Tier Stochastic Frontier Model with Correction for Sample Selection Hung­Pin Lai (, )
Asymptotic Inefficiency of BIC and Asymptotic Efficiency of TSIC: The Case of an I(d) Process Shu-Hui Yu (, )
Estimation of Semiparametric Nonlinear Panel Data Models with Correlated Random Effects Ji-Liang Shiu (,
)
8
9:00 - 11:00 III
()
()
Family Labor Supply and the Timing of Cash Transfers: Evidence from the Earned Income Tax Credit Tzu-Ting Yang (, )
()
3B Financial Econometrics
()
C103
Combining Markov Switching and Smooth Transition in Modeling Volatility: A Fuzzy Regime MEM Giampiero M. Gallo (University of Florence), Edoardo Otranto
Ching-Fan Chung (, Department of Quantitative Finance,
National Tsing Hua University)
Examining Strategic Investments Based on Asset Price Bubbles Jin-Huei Yeh (, ), Shi-Jung
Fan-Jian, Yu-Tung Lin, Kai-Huei Yu
()
The Term Structures of Domestic and Foreign Forward Premiums as Predictors of Spot Exchange Rates: A Cross-Countries Comparison Xi Wang, Jiao-Hui Yang, Kai-Li Wang (,
)
Forecasting Volatility with Multiple Horizon Extreme Values: The Multiple Horizon Conditional Autoregressive Range (MHCARR) Model Ray Yeutien Chou (, ),
Chen-Sheng Lin, Shou-Yung Yin
11:00 - 11:30
(University of Chicago Booth School of Business)
() Dynamic Macro Scenario Analysis via Bridge Sampling
12:30 - 13:30
B110
What Are the Main Sources of Interest Rate Persistence? Some International Evidence Ming-Jen Chang, Chang-Ching Lin, Shou-Yung Yin (,
)
()
How to Evaluate Money Doctors Objectively? Monetary Reform Proposals for China Reconsidered Tai-Kuang Ho (, )
()
The Asymmetric Contagion Effect from the U.S. Stock Market around the Subprime Mortgage Crisis between 2007 and 2010 Yu-Sheng Kao (, ),
Yu-Cheng Ku, Chien-Chung Nieh
()
()
A Mixed-Frequency Smooth Measurement for the Evolution of Business Conditions Yi-Ting Chen (, )
()
Forecasting Taiwan Manufacturing Index with Midas Factor Model Wen Jen Tsay, Hong-Ming Chen (,
) ()
A Time-Frequency Analysis of Stock Return, Investor Sentiment and Macroeconomic Factors Tzu-Pu Chang (, ),
Erdost Torun
()
43 4
10412






10410



1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.


2015
0.3%
1.26%(-0.63%)





2016
2016
2015
4.1%

2016 (2015)
2015


0.30%
3.62%

6.05% 6.19% ( M1B
M2)
2016
M1B M2 6.60%
4.99%
2016 GDP
50% (0.58%,
3.02%)
14

2015 2015
1 2 3 4

(%)
GDP 15,632.34 0.75 3,789.92 4.04 3,839.95 0.57 3,952.15 -0.63 4,050.32 -0.66
8,606.39 2.50 2,142.32 3.73 2,142.67 3.55 2,157.04 0.50 2,164.36 2.28
2,260.39 -0.65 515.01 -2.71 549.93 0.54 572.49 -0.44 622.95 -0.13
3,533.95 1.18 832.87 -0.44 877.22 0.60 921.31 3.10 902.55 1.34
2,883.14 2.35 723.16 1.33 715.85 -0.64 770.08 5.11 674.04 3.68
207.40 -6.06 29.43 -30.02 52.34 21.83 45.25 -6.30 80.38 -8.11
444.41 -2.53 80.19 -1.32 108.95 0.60 106.06 -5.96 149.21 -2.86
30.03 1.43 33.75 -3.79 -1.36
1,196.99 -9.33 297.01 44.36 230.70 -31.68 305.64 -9.02 363.64 -17.51
11,412.75 -0.48 2,779.64 6.13 2,819.09 -0.74 2,862.75 -3.01 2,951.26 -3.45
10,217.15 0.69 2,482.63 2.87 2,588.39 3.43 2,557.11 -2.24 2,589.02 -1.03

103.66 -0.30 102.45 -0.59 103.29 -0.70 104.41 -0.26 104.47 0.34
87.70 -8.54 89.04 -8.50 87.76 -9.42 87.21 -9.48 86.80 -6.69
()
M1B 14,665.89 6.00 14,469.21 5.68 14,517.05 6.04 14,766.38 6.05 14,910.91 6.22
M2 38,936.57 6.45 38,279.39 6.32 39,083.09 6.62 39,590.97 6.19 38,547.21 6.68
31.96 31.59 30.99 32.21 33.03
2011 2015 12 24
15

2016 2016
1 2 3 4

(%)
GDP 15,904.04 1.74 3,784.27 -0.15 3,946.44 2.77 4,067.02 2.91 4,106.31 1.38
8,759.73 1.78 2,186.35 2.06 2,169.34 1.24 2,211.14 2.51 2,192.91 1.32
2,298.36 1.68 528.39 2.60 556.33 1.16 581.03 1.49 632.62 1.55
3,610.46 2.16 846.83 1.68 890.83 1.55 934.34 1.41 938.46 3.98
2,943.30 2.09 731.61 1.17 728.54 1.77 777.75 1.00 705.40 4.65
214.87 3.60 32.71 11.14 52.35 0.03 46.76 3.33 83.05 3.32
460.39 3.60 82.29 2.62 111.48 2.33 112.34 5.92 154.28 3.40
29.00 -1.32 12.57 9.79 7.96
1,210.88 1.16 225.83 -23.97 311.70 35.11 335.36 9.72 337.99 -7.05
11,719.82 2.69 2,726.42 -1.91 2,947.70 4.56 3,018.28 5.43 3,027.41 2.58
10,543.15 3.19 2,512.82 1.22 2,640.69 2.02 2,691.41 5.25 2,698.22 4.22

104.16 0.49 103.73 1.25 104.09 0.78 104.52 0.11 104.29 -0.18
87.97 0.30 87.12 -2.15 87.79 0.04 88.39 1.35 88.58 2.04
()
M1B 15,633.98 6.60 15,705.65 8.55 15,465.41 6.53 15,640.57 5.92 15,724.30 5.45
M2 40,879.15 4.99 40,573.32 5.99 40,596.17 4.65 41,008.53 4.93 41,338.56 4.41
33.03 33.03 33.03 33.03 33.03
2011 2015 12 24
16
104 10 12

The Effects of Cultural Distance on Multi-Unit Firms
104.10.13 ,
Pricing Strategy under Reference-Dependent Preferences: Evidence from Sellers on StubHub
104.10.16 Ping Yu, School of Economics and Finance, University of Hong Kong
Testing Rank Preservation in Quantile Treatment Effects Evaluation
104.10.20 ,
Information Revelation in the Property Right Theory of the Firms
104.10.27 , Estimating the Mincer Earnings Equation with the Manpower Utilization Survey
104.11.3 , Obedience to Rules with Mild Formal Sanctions: The Roles of Informal Sanctions
and Voting
104.11.10 Joshua R. Goldstein, Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley
Naming the Precious Child: Fertility Decline and the Value of Children
104.11.17 Bonggeun Kim, Department of Economics, Seoul National University
Biases from Uncontrolled Quality When Unit Values Are Used to Estimate Quantity Demand Give Grounds for Caution on Fat and Sugar Taxes
104.11.24 Shu Shen, Department of Economics, University of California, Davis
Distributional Tests for Regression Discontinuity: Theory and Empirical Examples
104.11.24 ,
17
/
104.12.1 Wooyoung Lim, Department of Economics, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
The Informational Theory of Legislative Committees: An Experimental Analysis
104.12.1 Giampiero M. Gallo, School of Economics, University of Florence
Median Response to Shocks: A Model for VaR Spillovers in East Asia
104.12.8 ,
104.12.15 Biung-Ghi Ju, Department of Economics, Seoul National University
Fair Allocation of Disputed Properties
104.12.15 Myoung-Jae Lee, Department of Economics, Korea University
Regression Discontinuity with Integer Running Variables
104.12.18 Seung-Gyu (Andrew) Sim, Department of Economics, University of Tokyo
Wage Dynamics with Private Learning-by-Doing and On-the-Job Search
104.12.22 Briana Chang, Department of Finance, Wisconsin School of Business, UW-Madison
Endogenous Market Making and Network Formation
104.12.22 Yuichi Kitamura, Department of Economics, Yale University
Methods for Microeconometric Analysis of Heterogeneous Agents
104.12.25 Chiu-Yu Ko, Department of Economics, National University of Singapore
Division of a Resource in a Network
18
104 10 12

104.10.7 ~ 11.6
Seoul National University Chul-In Lee “Corruption and Efficiency Loss”
104.10.7 ~ 10.14

2015 SSk International Conference on Distributive Justice“Strategic Relations between Central Rules in Claims Problems” Seoul National University
104.10.9 ~ 10.15

104.10.11 ~ 10.15
104.10.14 ~ 10.26
2015 Fall Meeting of Project LINK 2015 OptionMetrics Research Conference Fordham
104.10.18 ~ 10.25
104.10.27 ~ 10.31

The Demographic Dividend and Population Aging in Asia and the Pacific“National Pension Program: Panacea or Poison under Rapid Population Aging?”
104.10.29 ~ 11.1

International SSK Conference on 2015 Global System Risk in Food, Energy and Finance“Evaluating the Economic Impacts of Drought Induced by Climate on Global RiceMarket”
19
104.10.31 ~ 11.4
104.11.1 ~ 11.4
104.11.4 ~ 11.17

Fordham University, Gabelli School of Business James Lothian Paul McNelis 11 6 Petrelli Center for Research in International Finance
104.11.6 ~ 11.8
2015 () “Monitoring Structural Stability of Dynamic Factor Models”
104.11.6 ~ 11.8

The 14th International Conference of the Japan Economic Policy Association“Environment, Growth and the Optimal Composition of the Government Spending”
104.11.8 ~ 11.21

Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization (IDE-JETRO) Development of Geographical Simulation Model (IDE-JETRO) and Geo-Economic Dataset
104.11.11 ~ 105.1.21
104.11.15 ~ 11.21
20
104.11.17 ~ 11.23

Annual Conference on Taxation (National Tax Association)“Patient Cost-Sharing and Health Care Utilization in Early Childhood: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design”
104.11.15 ~ 12.11

104.11.18 ~ 11.22
2015 APEC Typhoon Symposium (APTS) – Lessons Learned from Disastrous Typhoons
104.11.28 ~ 12.2
104.11.19 ~ 11.23
Kazuo Mino Yunfang Hu International Conference on Trade, Financial Integration and Economic Growth“Progressive Income Taxes as an Automatic Stabilizer in a Model with Zero Income Effects and Social Constant Returns”
104.12.2 ~ 12.5
104.12.5 ~ 12.6
21
104.12.7 ~ 12.10
Developing Smallholder Inclusive Food Value Chain Models for Local and Global MarketsWorkshop
104.12.10 ~ 12.15
The Joint 2015 Annual Health Econometrics Workshop and the 7th Australasian Workshop on Econometrics and Health “Patient Cost-Sharing and Health Care Utilization in Early Childhood: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design”
104.12.11 ~ 12.16

Conference on the Frontier of New Economic Geography: Geography, Policy, and Trade: “The Development, Application and Challenge of Heterogeneous Trade Model” “Agglomeration, Integration and Globalization”
104.12.11 ~ 12.14
Conference at Korea University“Model Selection and Model Averaging in Nonparametric Instrument”
104.12.14 ~ 12.19
/
104.10.8 ~ 10.14 Michael Qingliang Fan, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University

104.10.14 ~ 105.1.29 Angus C. Chu, Department of Economics, Management School, University of Liverpool

104.10.15 ~ 10.17 Ping Yu, School of Economics and Finance, University of Hong Kong
10 16 “Testing Rank Preservation in Quantile Treatment Effects Evaluation”
104.10.16 ~ 12.15 Jin-Chuan Duan, Risk Management Institute, National University of Singapore
12 3-4 2015
104.10.20 ~ 10.24 Leonor Modesto, CATÓLICA-LISBON School of Business and Economics, Portuguese Catholic University


104.10.31 ~ 11.1 Chang-Tai Hsieh, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago
11 1

Bonggeun Kim, Department of Economics, Seoul National University
1117 “Biases from Uncontrolled Quality When Unit Values Are Used to Estimate Quantity Demand Give Grounds for Caution on Fat and Sugar Taxes”
104.11.20 ~ 11.26 Shu Shen, Department of Economics, University of California, Davis
1124 “Distributional Tests for Regression Discontinuity: Theory and Empirical Examples”
104.11.28 ~ 12.5
Giampiero M. Gallo, Scuola di Economia e Management, Università, University di Firenze 123-42015 121 “Median Response to Shocks: A Model for VaR Spillovers in East Asia”
23
/
104.11.29 ~ 12.11 Ruey S. Tsay, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago
12 3-4 2015
104.11.29 ~ 12.11 George C. Tiao, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago
12 3-4 2015
104.12.2 ~ 12.6
Ji-Liang Shiu, Hanqing Advanced Institute of Economics and Finance, Renmin University of China
12 3-4 2015
104.12.2 ~ 12.7
Hanghui Zhang, School of Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
12 3-4 2015
104.12.10 ~ 12.16 Biung-Ghi Ju, Department of Economics, Seoul National University
12 15 “Fair Allocation of Disputed Properties”
104.12.14 ~ 12.20 Myoung-Jae Lee, Department of Economics, Korea University
12 15 “Regression Discontinuity with Integer Running Variables”
104.12.15 ~ 12.19 Seung-Gyu (Andrew) Sim, Department of Economics, University of Tokyo
12 18 “Wage Dynamics with Private Learning-by-Doing and On-the-Job Search”
104.12.18 ~ 12.26 Chiu-Yu Ko, Department of Economics, National University of Singapore
12 25 “Division of a Resource in a Network”
24
104.12.21 ~ 12.24
Briana Chang, Department of Finance, Wisconsin School of Business, UW-Madison
12 22 “Endogenous Market Making and Network Formation”
104.12.21 ~ 12.26 Yuichi Kitamura, Department of Economics, Yale University
12 22 “Methods for Microeconometric Analysis of Heterogeneous Agents”
104.12.25 ~ 105.1.8 Minchung Hsu, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies