" Single CMO " Management Committee 23 June 2011

group housing of pregnant sows as applicable from 1 January 2013

"Single CMO" Management Committee23 June 2011

DG AGRI C4 23 June 2011 2

Development of the EU Pig Carcasses price

115

135

155

175

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

€/1

00

kg

5 yr Avg (06-10) 2008 2009 2010 2011


Percentual change in Pig prices May 2011

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT LU HUMT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SV UK EU

Diff

eren

ce in

€ur

o in

%

-1 year

- 1 month


Private Storage

prevision for de-stocking

Total May June July August

141 218 tons 28 175 52 873 24 873 35 297

~ 1 … 3% of monthly slaughter


Development of the EU Piglet price

25

35

45

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

€/ p

iec

e

5 yr avg (06 - 10) 2008 2009 2010 2011


Change in Pig slaughter Jan - April 2011/2010Avg increase 1,6% re

April slaughter shows smaller increase as expected.

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

be bg cz dk de ee ie gr es fr it cy lv lt lu hu mt nl at pl pt ro si sk fi se uk EU

in %

Jan = +1,3% Feb = +5,6% Mrz = -0,6% Apr = +0,5 forec. (+2,4%)

BG & RO: Increase, or more offical and less non official slaughter?


Relation between monthly pig slaughterings and weekly pig carcass prices 2009 - 2011

1 100

1 300

1 500

1 700

1 900

2 100

2009 2010 2011

Sla

ug

hte

r in

1000 T

105.00

115.00

125.00

135.00

145.00

155.00

165.00

175.00

Eu

ro/ 100kg

(expected) Slaughter EU 27 PriceSource: EU Commission DG AGRI

NB: Monthly Slaughter "official" slaughter only


Price of Basic Ingredients 2008 - 2011

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan 08 April Juil Oct Jan 09 April Juil Oct Jan 10 April Juil Oct Jan-11 April Juil

Euro

/ to

nne

Soft Wheat (EU)

Barley (EU)

Maïs (EU)

Soja (CAF)

Hulls (EU)

Manioc (CAF)

C.G.F. (CAF)


Futures for Soybeans in US$ct/ Bushel (nearby = 2010 & 2011)

750

900

1 050

1 200

1 350

| Jan | Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun |

01 Nearby

2011 05 May

2011 07 Jul

2011 11 Nov

2012 01 Jan

Delivery:


Futures for Feed wheat EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2010 & 2011)

80

110

140

170

200

| Jan | Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June |

€uro

/ Ton

n

01 Nearby

2011 May

2011 Jul

2011 Nov

2012 Jan


Futures for Maize EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2010 - 2011)

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

| Jan | Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun |

€/To

nn

01 Nearby

2011 Aug

2011 Nov

2012 Jan

Delivery:


TOEPFER weekly Cereal and Substitute prices 2008 - 2011

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 2 8 14 20 26 32 38 44 50 4 10 16 22 28 34 40 46 52 6 12 18 24 30 36 42

US$

/T

FREIGHT Panamax soja beans USA soja pellets ARGCitrus p. Palm pitkernels EU maïs in US$C.G.F.

week 24 of 2011 -77% compared to

week 1 of 2008


Comparisson between Compoundfeed for Pigs and a Cereal-Feedmix

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |

Euro

/ 10

0kg (

pig

carc

ase

)

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

€uro

/ T (

cere

alm

ix &

Com

p. fe

ed)

margin pig/ comp. Feed (4.4 > 4.0)Pig carcaseAvg Margin 2006 - 2010 (43.83€/100kg)Cereal-mixCompound feed

NB: June - december estimations Pigprice: June - December forecast


Weekly average Pigprices 2007 - 2010 in Euro/ 100kg carcase

EU, Brazil and the US

55.0

75.0

95.0

115.0

135.0

155.0

175.0

| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |

weeksEUUSBraz. avgCDN Quebec

EU = weighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meatUS = weekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iowa-Minn. 167-187lbBR = avg of maximum prices in main producing states (suino.com.br)CDN= Quebeck index 100 (agr.gc.ca)


Pigprices in US and EU and forecastsEU forecast: Working group priceforecast pigmeat

US Forecast: Chicago Mercantile Exchange

70

95

120

145

170

195

| 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 |

€uro

/ 10

0kg

EU

US


Weekly exchange rate US dollar 2007 - 2011

1 €uro = ………US$

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

| 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 |


Trade in Pigmeat


Main Importers of PIG Products (up to April)

Ch

ina

+ H

. Ko

ng

.

Ch

ina

+ H

. Ko

ng

.

Ja

pa

n

.

Ja

pa

n

.

Ru

ss

ia

.

Ru

ss

ia

.

Me

xic

o (

up

to

Ma

r 1

1)

.

Me

xic

o (

up

to

Ma

r 1

1)

.

Un

ite

d S

tate

s

.

So

uth

Ko

rea

.

EU

*

.

EU

*

.

Un

ite

d S

tate

s

.

So

uth

Ko

rea

.

-500

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

2010 (up to April) 2011 (up to April)

Qty

in 1

000 T

onnes

Main Exporters of PIG Products (up to April)

EU

EU

Un

ite

d S

tate

s

Un

ite

d S

tate

s

Ch

ina

+ H

. Ko

ng

Ch

ina

+ H

. Ko

ng

Ca

na

da

Ca

na

da

Bra

zil

Bra

zil

Ch

ile

Ch

ile

-500

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

2010 (up to April) 2011 (up to April)

Qty

in 1

000 T

onnes


46

13

5

59

72

0

71

93

7

51

64

1

63

80

0

55

91

8

56

07

7

54

49

9

72

27

6

22

61

2

21

73

0

32

36

8

43

17

9

59

83

8

51

66

2

43

40

1

11

93

2

88

1 0

11

94

3 4

05

1 0

83

23

0

1 2

38

13

8

1 5

56

96

1

1 5

45

90

7

1 3

31

80

8

1 5

26

56

3

1 5

09

30

2

1 7

80

56

8

1 9

38

45

5

2 0

89

36

3

1 9

10

90

8

2 5

69

08

7

2 3

84

53

6

2 6

85

31

9

97

4 3

02

0

250 000

500 000

750 000

1 000 000

1 250 000

1 500 000

1 750 000

2 000 000

2 250 000

2 500 000

2 750 000

3 000 000

3 250 000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan-Apr11

To

nn

es

pro

du

ct

we

igh

t

IMPORTS EXPORTS

EU trade of PIG products


EU imports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

OriginsOriginsCompared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to J an-Apr 10

Switzerland 10 476 24% 12 377 21% 17 240 33% 17 481 40% 6 012 50% 9%

Chile 12 323 29% 17 142 29% 16 557 32% 8 874 20% 2 184 18% -38%

Croatia 2 863 7% 3 965 7% 4 061 8% 5 250 12% 1 504 13% -7%

Serbia 1 217 3% 1 181 2% 387 1% 851 2% 742 6% +++

USA 9 065 21% 21 532 36% 6 416 12% 5 616 13% 396 3% -87%

Canada 2 660 6% 53 0% 340 1% 414 1% 26 0% -91%

Other 4 576 11% 3 588 6% 6 661 13% 4 916 11% 1 069 9%

EXTRA EU 25/27 43 179 59 838 51 662 43 401 11 932

% change + 39% - 14% - 16% - 33.5%

2007 2008 2009 Jan-Apr 112010


EU imports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27 (Tonnes prod. weight)

5 960

1 4962 995

396

4 839

6 971 3 500

2 184

3 7675 457

6 012

0

2 0443 192

1 8385 517

1 753

18 228 17 94216 403

11 932

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

Jan-Apr 08 Jan-Apr 09 Jan-Apr 10 Jan-Apr 11

USA Chile Switzerland

Croatia Argentina Other destinations

IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27 (1000 EUR)

13 084

3 6587 289

1 197

11 132

15 140 8 346

7 152

5 818

7 928

5 996

4 328

33 01030 566

25 954

17 698

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

Jan-Apr 08 Jan-Apr 09 Jan-Apr 10 Jan-Apr 11

USA Chile SwitzerlandCroatia Argentina Other destinations


I mpor t s of sel ect ed PI G product s

0

1 500

3 000

4 500

6 000

|J an 06

2006 |J an 07

2007 |J an 08

2008 |J an 09

2009 |J an 10

2010 |J an 11

i n Tonnes ( pr oduct wei ght )

FRESH FROZEN FAT OTHERS


EU exports of selected PIG products:Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

DestinationsDestinationsCompared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Apr 10

Russia 647 052 33.9% 769 044 29.9% 760 880 31.9% 809 149 30.1% 271 198 27.8% + 8%

Hong Kong 243 171 12.7% 462 299 18.0% 413 548 17.3% 421 948 15.7% 163 056 16.7% + 25%

South Korea 137 421 7.2% 115 757 4.5% 95 163 4.0% 100 796 3.8% 83 208 8.5% + 141%

Japan 232 951 12.2% 236 609 9.2% 186 134 7.8% 223 903 8.3% 78 448 8.1% + 14%

China 86 345 4.5% 147 951 5.8% 178 725 7.5% 212 020 7.9% 74 519 7.6% + 32%

Philippines 34 243 1.8% 40 912 1.6% 26 572 1.1% 89 388 3.3% 36 805 3.8% + 16%

Belarus 10 509 0.5% 55 276 2.2% 28 369 1.2% 80 284 3.0% 27 152 2.8% + 108%

Ukraine 2 757 0.1% 189 001 7.4% 147 030 6.2% 137 882 5.1% 24 307 2.5% - 30%

USA 66 472 3.5% 61 471 2.4% 55 495 2.3% 58 627 2.2% 21 531 2.2% + 10%

Croatia 56 151 2.9% 63 426 2.5% 70 697 3.0% 67 581 2.5% 19 179 2.0% + 7%

Angola 48 637 2.5% 49 003 1.9% 45 424 1.9% 44 501 1.7% 17 510 1.8% + 32%

Australia 34 583 1.8% 45 621 1.8% 46 703 2.0% 50 310 1.9% 13 985 1.4% - 29%

Other 310 615 16.3% 332 719 13.0% 329 795 13.8% 388 931 14.5% 143 403 14.7%EXTRA EU15-25-27 1 910 908 2 569 087 2 384 536 2 685 319 974 302

% change + 34% - 7% + 13% + 28.5%

2007 2008 2009 Jan-Apr 112010


EU exports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (Tonnes prod. weight)

205 670 250 431 271 198

135 221130 413

163 056

78 448256 637

271 329

303 872

66 79568 652

758 184 811 603

974 302

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

Jan-Apr 09 Jan-Apr 10 Jan-Apr 11

Tonn

es (p

rodu

ct w

eigh

t)

Russia Hong Kong China

Japan South Korea Other destinations

EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (1000 EUR)

266 862 339 326 397 007

118 893167 764

255 533

469 495 474 219

566 515

232 040224 342

1 223 163 1 267 003

1 625 160

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

1 800 000

Jan-Apr 09 Jan-Apr 10 Jan-Apr 11

1,00

0 E

UR

Russia Hong Kong China

Japan South Korea Other destinations


Exports of selected PIG products

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

|Jan06

2006 |Jan07

2007 |Jan08

2008 |Jan09

2009 |Jan10

2010 |Jan11

in T

on

ne

s (

pro

du

ct

we

igh

t)

FRESH FROZEN FAT LIVE ANIMALS OTHERS


Cumulated quantity of weekly requests

for Export licenses in the Pigmeat sector

for Gatt year 2010 - 2011

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

To

nn

es

Cumulative quantity available

cumulative attributions

Documents

" Single CMO " Management Committee 23 June 2011