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© OECD/IEA 2010
Cecilia TamInternational Energy Agency
Martin TaylorNuclear Energy Agency
The Role of Nuclear Energy in aSustainable Energy Future
Paris, 27 May 2010
© OECD/IEA 2010
Energy-related CO2 Emissions in the WEO-2009 Reference Scenario
In cumulative terms, by 2030 emissions are 35 Gt lower than in WEO-2008. 75% of this reduction is due to the financial crisis, 25% to new policies
Mto
e Other renewables
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
WEO-2008 total
Global energy demand grows by average 1.5% p.a. to 2030; 22% more oil, 42% more gas, 53% more coal than today
Source: World Energy Outlook, IEA 2009
© OECD/IEA 2010
A Sustainable Energy Future: The ‘450 Scenario’
Efficiency accounts for 2/3 of the 3.8 Gt abatement in 2020. Renewables contribute 20%. With substantial abatement potential outside the OECD+
region, financing will be key to meeting a 450 ppm trajectory.
2007 2015 2020 2025 2030
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
450 Scenario
Reference Scenario
OECD+
Other Major Economies
Other Countries
3.8 Gt
13.8 Gt
Nuclear– 10%
CCS – 10%
Efficiency – 45%
Renewables & biofuels – 21%Nuclear– 13%
CCS – 20%
Efficiency – 67%
Renewables & biofuels – 19%Nuclear – 8%
CCS – 6%Efficiency – 55%
Renewables & biofuels – 34%Nuclear– 9%
WorldBy regionAbatement by technology, 2030
Efficiency – 57%
Renewables & biofuels – 23%
Source: World Energy Outlook, IEA 2009
Key Technology Options
Contribution of different technologies and measures to CO2 emission reductions in the BLUE Map scenario, compared to the Baseline
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gt C
O2
CCS 19%
Renewables 17%
Nuclear 6%
Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5%
End-use fuel switching 15%
End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
Baseline emissions 57 Gt
WEO 2009 450 ppm case ETP2010 analysis
© OECD/IEA 2010
© O
EC
D/I
EA
200
9
Based on a scenario to halve CO2 emissions by 2050
Establish a baseline of technology status today
Identify and address technology-specific barriers
Create technical, policy, legal, financial, and public acceptance milestones and priority near-term actions
Create a process for stakeholder collaboration
Special developing country focus on engagement, national roadmaps
Identify partners for implementation
Support technology diffusion, knowledge sharing among countries
The Role of the IEA Energy Technology Roadmaps
Present Status of Roadmaps
2009 releases• Carbon capture & storage, Electric vehicles,
Cement sector, Wind energy
2010 releases• Solar PV and Concentrating solar power – May• Nuclear power – June• Efficient buildings: heating and cooling – September• Smart grids and Biofuels – November• Vehicle efficiency and Geothermal power – December
2011 releases• Hydrogen & fuel cells; Clean/high-efficiency coal;
Energy efficiency in buildings: design & operation;Biomass combustion for heat & power
Gas20.9%
Nuclear13.8%
Hydro15.6%Oil
5.7%Biomass
and waste1.3%
Wind0.9%
Other*0.3%
Coal41.6%
World
19 756 TWh
Gas21.7%
Nuclear21.4%
Hydro11.8%
Oil4.1%
Biomass and waste
2.0%
Wind1.4%
Other*0.4%
Coal37.2%
OECD
10 642 TWh
Nuclear is Already a Widely Used Low-Carbon Technology
Source: World Energy Outlook, IEA 2009
© OECD/IEA 2010
A New Age of Electrification
Under the Baseline, fossil fuels continue to dominate.In BLUE Map, nuclear provides 24% of global electricity production.
In the High Nuclear case, nuclear provides 38%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050 BLUE High Nuclear 2050
PWh
Other
Solar
Wind
Biomass and waste + CCS
Biomass and waste
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural gas + CCS
Natural gas
Oil
Coal + CCS
Coal
© OECD/IEA 2010
Nuclear Competitiveness (1)
Levelised Cost of Electricity Generation by Region (5% Discount Rate)
Nuclear is already a very cost competitive technologySource: Projected Costs of Generating Electricity, IEA/NEA 2010
© OECD/IEA 2010
Nuclear Competitiveness (2)
Levelised Cost of Electricity Generation by Region (10% Discount Rate)
But nuclear costs depend strongly on the discount rateSource: Projected Costs of Generating Electricity, IEA/NEA 2010
Nuclear is a proven technology and can play an important role in a low-carbon strategy
Installed capacity could reach 1 200 GW and supply 24% of the world’s electricity in 2050 under the ETP BLUE Map scenario
Political support and public acceptance are key for implementation of a nuclear programme
Financing nuclear is another key challenge Expansion of nuclear industry capacities and skilled
workforce needed In the longer term, Generation IV technologies could
reduce costs and improve performance and security
Nuclear Roadmap Prepared by IEA and NEA: Key Findings
Growth of Nuclear Capacity and Electricity Generation to 2050
Nuclear capacity triples in the BLUE Map scenario, and its share of electricity generation rises from 14% today to 24% in 2050. Under a High Nuclear case,
nuclear capacity could reach 2 000 GW, providing 38% of electricity
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Shar
e o
f glo
bal
ele
ctri
city
pro
du
ctio
n
Inst
alle
d c
apac
ity
GW
Africa & Middle East
Economies in Transition
Other Developing Asia
OECD Pacific
OECD Europe
Latin America
US & Canada
India
China
BLUE Map
BLUE High Nuclear
© OECD/IEA 2010
Selected Key Actions 2010-20
Demonstrate the ability to build the latest nuclear plant designs on time and within budget
Develop the industrial capacities and skilled human resources to support growth in nuclear capacity
Establish the required legal frameworks and institutions in countries where these do not yet exist
Encourage the participation of private sector investors in nuclear power projects
Make progress in implementing plans for permanent disposal of high-level radioactive wastes
Enhance public dialogue to inform stakeholders about the role of nuclear in energy strategy
Expand the supply of nuclear fuel in line with increased nuclear generating capacity
International collaboration is needed to expand nuclear around the world
China, 893
India, 389
Latin America,
116
US & Canada, 883
OECD Europe, 586
OECD Pacific, 615
Other Developing
Asia, 107
Economies in Transition,
330
Africa & Middle East,
56
Regional investment needs 2010 to 2050 USD bn
Non-OECD countries could represent half of the nuclear capacity in 2050 and greater international collaboration will be needed, particularly for
capacity building in new nuclear countries
© OECD/IEA 2010
Milestones for Development of Nuclear Technology
2010-2015
Life extension of existing plants Fully establish Gen III+ designs, operate FOAK plants2015-2020
Complete several Gen III+ plants, on time and cost Implement plans for geological disposal of HLW2020-2030
Demonstration of most promising Gen IV designs Complete RD&D for advanced fuel cycles2030-2050
Build & operate the first commercial Gen IV plants Increase use of nuclear in non-electricity sectors
© OECD/IEA 2010
Nuclear Roadmap will be released in late June 2010
www.iea.org/roadmaps