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© OECD/IEA, 2009
ESDS International Energy ConferenceESDS International Energy ConferenceReal Data – Real WorldReal Data – Real World
London, 30 November 2009London, 30 November 2009
Real Energy World – Real Energy DataReal Energy World – Real Energy DataYes, but don’t forget…Yes, but don’t forget…
Real Challenges to Energy StatisticiansReal Challenges to Energy Statisticians
Sharon Burghgraeve Jean-Yves Garnier
Energy Statistics Division
International Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA, 2009
Real Energy WorldReal Energy World
Energy is “a” (if not “the”) key element of global economy
Energy markets are becoming more and more global
CO2 emissions from fuel combustion represent the largest share of greenhouse gases (GHG)
© OECD/IEA, 2009
Energy is “a” (if not “the”) key elementEnergy is “a” (if not “the”) key elementof global economyof global economy
Example of oil:
Daily productionDaily production November oil priceNovember oil price Days per yearDays per year
85 Mbl/day
6 800 million US$/day
2 500 billion US$1.4 x GDP of UK1.4 x GDP of UK
80 $/blx
365x
+ 46%
+ 171%
x 2
Underlying factors:1. Overall IEA GDP “only” increased by 140% compared to 270% for non-IEA. As a consequence,
the share of IEA in global GDP dropped from 81% to 74%, and from 63% to 51% in GDP PPP2. Total IEA population increased by 220 million compared to 2 400 million for non-IEA3. Average IEA energy intensity (consumption/GDP) is the lowest of the above countries/regions
Energy consumption Energy consumption
Energy markets are becoming more and more global
59%59% 44%44%
More energy is now consumed outside the IEA than in IEA member countries
© OECD/IEA, 2009
COCO22 emissions from fuel combustion represent emissions from fuel combustion represent
the largest share of greenhouse gases (GHG)the largest share of greenhouse gases (GHG)
World Annex I countries
Energy-related CO2 contribution to GHG emissions
© OECD/IEA, 2009
Latin America(22 countries)Latin America(22 countries)
Africa(26 countries)
Africa(26 countries)
Middle East (13 countries)Middle East
(13 countries)
Former Soviet Union (15 countries)
Former Soviet Union (15 countries)
OECD (30 countries)
OECD (30 countries)
Non OECD Europe(11 countries)
Non OECD Europe(11 countries)
Asia(17 countries)
Asia(17 countries)
A coverage of over 130 countries,95 flows and 75 energy products
Real Energy DataReal Energy Data
The contribution of the IEA to provide a global energy data coverage
© OECD/IEA, 2009
Books
CDs
Internet
The contribution of the IEA to provide a The contribution of the IEA to provide a global energy data coverageglobal energy data coverage
© OECD/IEA, 2009
The challenge passed to the international The challenge passed to the international energy statistics community: energy statistics community: A need to further improve quality and coverageA need to further improve quality and coverage
The Energy Statistics Manual (with Eurostat)
The JODI initiative (7 organisations)
InterEnerStat (21 organisations)
The Energy Efficiency Template (EU ODYSSEE, APEC)
A few selected examples of concrete actions taken by the IEA (together with other organisations):
© OECD/IEA, 2009
Facilitating the understanding Facilitating the understanding of energy statisticsof energy statistics
The Energy Statistics Manual The Energy Statistics Manual (with Eurostat)(with Eurostat)
SpanishSpanish
RussianRussian ChineseChinese
FrenchFrench GermanGerman
An Arabic version is under preparationAn Arabic version is under preparation
TurkishTurkish
IndonesianIndonesian
© OECD/IEA, 2009
UN
Secretaria de EnergíaMexico
5% gap5% gap5% gap5% gap
1995 1996 1997 1998APEC 2653 2903 3087 3134IEA 2741 2872 3062 3109OLADE 2722 2969 3022 3070OPEC 2618 2858 3022 3071UN 2834 2977 3166
Crude Oil Production for Mexico (in kbd)
3210
The Joint Oil Date Initiative (JODI)The Joint Oil Date Initiative (JODI)(APEC, Eurostat, IEA, IEFS, OLADE, OPEC, UNSD)(APEC, Eurostat, IEA, IEFS, OLADE, OPEC, UNSD)
© OECD/IEA, 2009
Country:Country:Month:Month: Unit:Unit:
JOINT APERC/EUROSTAT/OECD-IEA/ OLADE/OPEC/UN DATA EXERCISE
Production
Imports
Exports
Closing Change
Refinery Intake
Crude Oil
Stocks
Petroleum Products
LPG Gasoline KeroseneGas/Diesel
OilFuel Oil Total Oil
Refinery Output
Imports
Exports
Closing Change
Demand
Stocks
A joint questionnaire as simple as possibleA joint questionnaire as simple as possible
Simple definitions Simple definitions
Month -1 and month -2Month -1 and month -2
Choice of units left to organisations Choice of units left to organisations
A simple format (42 data points) A simple format (42 data points)
© OECD/IEA, 2009
International Energy Forum Conferences JODI Conferences Inter-Secretariat Working Group MeetingsInternational Energy Forum Conferences JODI Conferences Inter-Secretariat Working Group Meetings
Amst.May 04
MexicoMay 02
ParisDec 03
Nine years of hard work and cooperationNine years of hard work and cooperation
RiyadhNov. 01
MexicoMay 02
Luxem.Jan 02
ViennaApr 02
MadridJuly 00
BangkokApr 01
ParisNov 00
RiyadhNov 00
ViennaMay 01
ViennaOct 01
Amst.May 04
ViennaJan 03
ParisJuly 02
ParisDec 03
ViennaJun 04
ParisNov 05
RiyadhJan 05
ParisJul 05
RiyadhNov 05
CairoOct 03
BaliOct 04
OsakaSep 02
Luxem.Jan 06
ViennaSep 06
N YorkMay 06
RiyadhNov 06
DohaMay 06
ParisNov 07
ParisOct 08
Luxem.June 08
ViennaMar 09
QuitoJune 09
RomeMay 08
Current developmentExtension to natural gas
Extension to additional annual data
Launch of the JODI Database
77thth International JODI Conference, 4-5 June 2009, Quito, Ecuador International JODI Conference, 4-5 June 2009, Quito, Ecuador
Improvement in JODI performance
GlobalParticipation of *98 countries
Number of Smiley Faces ☺2008Jul-Dec
2006Jul-Dec
Improvement (%)2008 Jul-Dec/2006 Jul-Dec
Submission TimelinessCompletenessSource: Joint Oil Data Initiative*No assessment for Tunisia who joined the Initiative from January 2009 data
☺ 82 71 15.5%
☺ 54 48 12.5%
☺ 64 55 16.4%72 countries have reported M-1 data in April
2009 (compared to almost none in 2002)
Major progress in timeliness
M-1 vs. M-2
© OECD/IEA, 2009
An extension of JODI to all fuels and all flows
An extension to data provider and user organisations
Priority given to harmonisation
InterEnerStatInterEnerStat21 international/regional organisations21 international/regional organisations
© OECD/IEA, 2009
Close to an agreement on Close to an agreement on harmonised definitionsharmonised definitions
4th InterEnerStat Meeting, IEA, October 20094th InterEnerStat Meeting, IEA, October 2009
© OECD/IEA, 2009
FAO
UNEUROSTAT
OPEC
OAPEC
?AFREC
Harmonisation of definitions, a first step Harmonisation of definitions, a first step towards a common questionnairetowards a common questionnaire
© OECD/IEA - 2009
World abatement of energy-related COWorld abatement of energy-related CO22 emissionsemissionsin the 450 Scenarioin the 450 Scenario
Two-thirds of CO2 reduction should come from energy efficiency by 2010; 57% by 2030
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gt
450 Scenario
Reference Scenario
OECD+
OME
OC
3.8 Gt
13.8 Gt
CCSNuclear
Renewables
& biofuels
Efficiency
World abatement by technology
20203.8 Gt
65%
19%
13%3%
203013.8 Gt
57%
23%
10%10%
The Energy
Efficiency Template
© OECD/IEA, 2009
Aggregated
Indicators
Disaggregated
Indicators
Process
Efficiency
TPES/GDP
TPES/Production
Electricity Cons./Population
CO2/GDP PPP
Efficiency Elec. Prod.
Cons./ton cement
Heating Cons./sqm/DD
Litre/100km (stock)
Only a minimum Only a minimum set of indicators set of indicators can be derived can be derived
from basic from basic statisticsstatistics
Only a minimum Only a minimum set of indicators set of indicators can be derived can be derived
from basic from basic statisticsstatistics
Dry process
Condensing boiler
Litre/100km (vintage)
The problem is that current data are not detailed The problem is that current data are not detailed enough for sound energy efficiency policyenough for sound energy efficiency policy
The Indicator Pyramid
© OECD/IEA, 2009
Lack of proper indicators could lead to major Lack of proper indicators could lead to major uncertainties for formulating action plansuncertainties for formulating action plans
Industry
Tra
nspo
rt
Residential
Ser
vice
s
And the 1st priority is...
Industry!
And the last priority is...
Residential!
So, the need to act and reactSo, the need to act and react
© OECD/IEA, 2009
In consultation with APEC, the ODYSSEE, the IEA has In consultation with APEC, the ODYSSEE, the IEA has developed a questionnaire on energy efficienciesdeveloped a questionnaire on energy efficiencies
After several years of negotiations, Ministers have agreed to adopt this new questionnaire in October 2009
After several years of negotiations, Ministers have agreed to adopt this new questionnaire in October 2009
© OECD/IEA, 2009
Examples of detailed informationExamples of detailed informationto be collectedto be collected
RESIDENTIAL
%
106
kWh
/un
it
© OECD/IEA, 2009
Liberalisation of the market: From one company to hundreds
Confidentiality (linked to liberalisation)
More work passed to statistics offices:More companies to survey (liberalisation)
Renewables (remote information)
Energy efficiency indicators (including socio-economic data)
Environment (estimation of GHG emissions, ….)
etc.
Resources do not follow work load:Statistics still have a low profile, budget cuts
What about new challenges faced by What about new challenges faced by energy statisticians at the country levelenergy statisticians at the country level
© OECD/IEA, 2009
Please Help Me…
A need to raise the profile of energy statistics and statisticians
A need to raise the profile of energy statistics and statisticians
More work and fewer resourcesMore work and fewer resources
© OECD/IEA, 2009
Raising the profile of statistics and the role of statisticians
No direct link
between policy
makers and
statisticians
No direct link
between policy
makers and
statisticians
Current
Current
situation
situation
Current
Current
situation
situation
© OECD/IEA, 2009
Decision makersNeed the right data
immediatelyAllocation of resources
Decision makersNeed the right data
immediatelyAllocation of resources
Prime users of the data Advisors to policy makers Interface between policy
makers and statisticians Lobby Comments on data
Prime users of the data Advisors to policy makers Interface between policy
makers and statisticians Lobby Comments on data
The ones who do the work Should be fully involved in
the whole process Statisticians need to
understand why they collect the data
Policy makers need to understand the problems faced by statisticians
The ones who do the work Should be fully involved in
the whole process Statisticians need to
understand why they collect the data
Policy makers need to understand the problems faced by statisticians
In fact, the relationship between policy In fact, the relationship between policy makers, analysts and statisticians should be makers, analysts and statisticians should be
more based on a 3-way streetmore based on a 3-way street
© OECD/IEA, 2009
On 19 November 2005, an example of how the profile of statistics can On 19 November 2005, an example of how the profile of statistics can be raised is the launch of the JODI Database by King Abdullahbe raised is the launch of the JODI Database by King Abdullah
JODI has been a
major contributor
for raising the
profile
© OECD/IEA, 2009
Real Data – Real WorldReal Data – Real World
Energy StatisticsEnergy
Statistics
Forecast the evolution of the energy situation
Review the energy market
Feed the debate on climate change
Assess the past to better understand
the present
© OECD/IEA, 2009
A Few Words to ConcludeA Few Words to Conclude
Thank youThank you
The real world needs more and better data
Harmonisation and cooperation are two key words to provide more and better real data
The IEA is very active to improve quality and coverage for OECD countries and worldwide
However policy makers should understand the challenges passed to their statisticians