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1
21
2005.11.17
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2
ぜ
Dr. Gro
Harlem Brundtland
┞
Committee of Inquiry into Human Fertilisation.and
Embryology Mary Warnock
Ⅴ Ⅴ
without compromising the ability of future generations
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↓ ――
―― endanger
↓
minimized さ
㊪
ゝ
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3
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↓ ″
enhance both current and future potential
さ さ
″ ├ 19
リ John Locke 1632 1704 ♣
♣
♣ さ
Ⅴ
ぞ
♣ Ⅴ
♣
… 10
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4
♣
さ ↓ ″
さ ↓ ″
19 John Stuart
Mill 1806 1873 ″ ├
♣ ♣
19
″ ├ ♣
″ さ
Herman E Daly 1938
1938
1 1972 ┐ゼ
♣
ゼ
ゼ
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5
″
┘
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↓ ㈻ よ
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ふ ぜ
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6
Unconventional Oil oil sand, heavy oil, oil shale
oil sand heavy oil oil shale
oil sand
heavy oil oil shale
さ
┘
20 Unconventional Oil
80
60 70
Ⅴ
Unconventional Gas tight sand gas, coal bed methane, shale gas,
geopressured gas, methane hydrate
methane hydrate ┬
┬ モ methane hydrate
methane hydrate
リ
↓ ″
″ ぜ
″
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┷ ┘ ″ ″
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♣ ラ
″ Unconventional Resources Unconventional Oil Unconventional Gas
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っ
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7
CO2 CO2 Unconventional Oil
Unconventional Gas
CO2
CO2
CO2 さ
セ
″
↓
″
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″
″
Peak Oil
㌱ ㊪
Henry Alfred Kissinger 1923
ぜ ″
20 ″ ┘
㌱
┘
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♣
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8
♣
セ
↓ ″
″
40
て
R
reserve P production
ぜ ッ
♣ 1998 58 R/P
79 77
よ
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9
ぜ フ
ぜ
㈻ Colin J. Campbell and H. Laherrere “The End of Cheap Oil”
Scientific American, March 1998 peak oil 1996
7,850 85,000 ぜ
1.8 さ
2001
85
ゝ
ッ
50 ゝ ふ
ぜ㎲
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1,000
20 34 50 60
60 70
ぜ ″ ぜ㎲
R.K. D. .
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48
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87 88 89 ぜ
Ⅴ
87
1,933 87 ぞ ぜ
90% 89 2,550
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ぞ ぜ 72% ル OPEC ┍
⇒Ⅷ
75
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㈻ USGS 2000 96 フ
6,880 ″ 210
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↓ ″ 43 30
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R.K. D. .
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11
↓ ″
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″ 44 1970 100
GNP さ 1990
70
さ
30
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┞
100 さ
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C.D. ┐ゼ 2001
Ⅵ ↓ ↓
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12
┞
り
ぜ
1902-1994
リ
ぜ
ぜ 1820
1885 65 さ ┞
ぜ 1916 1945 29 さ
ぜ
1985
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a.
┤ ゼ
┤
70 90
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13
The Day After Tomorrow
ー
c.
ぜ ″
d.
d a
ぜ㎲
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Unconventional Oil Unconventional Gas
↓
↓ ㌹
↓ ㌹
ぜ㎲ 30 さ
ぜ
Ⅴ
30 さ
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14
20kWh/m2 3 2
2kWh/m2 9560kWh/m2 1 2400kWh/m2
500 5000 E.O.
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25 25
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Unconventional Oil
Unconventional Gas リ
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1000 ス
m
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5000
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BP British Petroleum ♣ ♣
♣ ♣ ♣
BP Beyond
Petroleum ♣
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