Forecast sprawl Guide long-range population and employment
forecasts o For the region o For individual counties Allocate
growth to County subdivisions o Municipalities o Traffic Analysis
Zones Test policies o Highway vs transit investment o VMT tax o
Purchase development rights
Slide 3
General purpose land use planning, analysis, and forecasting
tool Integrates demographic, employment, land use, and
transportation data within GIS Identifies vacant land that will be
developed o No infill o No redevelopment Links to Travel Demand
Model o No direct connection o No feedback loop o Single future
year outcome (no interim years)
Slide 4
Highway Congestion Transit Network GIS Map of New Development
Patterns MCD & TAZ Tabular Summaries
Slide 5
1. Determine amount of population and employment growth 2.
Define Allocation Areas 3. Remove Development Masks from Allocation
Areas 4. Determine development Attractors and Discouragements 5.
Run synthetic auction
Slide 6
Population and Housing o Total population o Persons per
household o Percent of units by household density type o Average
lot size by household density type Employees and Jobs o Employment
per household o Percent of jobs in employment density type o
Average Square footage by employment density type GIS layers o
Buffer (area of influence) o Weight (magnitude of influence)
Slide 7
Existing open space o Vacant o Agricultural o Wooded Planned
Growth Areas As of Right or Proposed Zoning
Slide 8
Parks, Military, Protected Areas (NJ Pine Lands, Farms)
Environmental Conservation Areas Water Bodies, Streams, and
Wetlands Existing Development
Slide 9
Transportation Infrastructure o Freeway Interchanges o Other
Major Roadways o Rail Stations and Bus Lines Similar Existing
Development (Clustering) Favorable Government Policy Highway
Congestion (Commercial Only)
Slide 10
Montgomery County, PA
Slide 11
Preservation Areas Flood Plains and Wetlands Steep Slope
Unfavorable Government Policy Highway Congestion (Residential
Only)
Slide 12
Allocation Area Wooded Vacant Agricultural Masks
DiscouragersAttractors Congestion Steep Slope Municipal Policy
Coefficients Water Features Existing Development Protected Lands
Similar Type Development (Clustering) Transportation Facilities
Sewers Municipal Policy Coefficients
Slide 13
UUPlan allocates New Footprint Development by bidding priority
oIoIndustrial highest bidder oRoResidential high density
oCoCommercial high density oRoResidential medium density
oCoCommercial low density oRoResidential low density- lowest bidder
oRoResidential v. low density
Slide 14
UPlan allocation without NJ 55 UPlan allocation with NJ 55
1990-2005 land use change Legend !. FreewayInterchange !.
FreewayInterchange (Unbuilt) Freeway Major Arterial Minor Arterial
1990 Existing Development Undevelopable Land Land Use Commercial
Industrial High-Density Residential Medium/Low-Density Residential
Gloucester County, NJ N
Slide 15 "high density" everywhere else High degree of
differentiation within each county">
Magnitude of total demographic and employment growth determined
by user Existing development is fixed. User defines where
redevelopment can occur Weak transportation linkage County-level
densities can be confusing in final presentation o Low-density" in
Philadelphia > "high density" everywhere else High degree of
differentiation within each county