- Good Shepherd -

The “In-Between” Church

Presentation inspired by The In-Between Church: Navigating Size Transitions in Congregations, by Alice Mann, Senior Consultant for the Alban Institute

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Size and Form

• What size church did you grow up?• What form did that church take?

• What size was Good Shepherd when you first came through the doors?

• What form did Good Shepherd take at that time?

• Sunday attendance level defines our size – attributes of size help define our form

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Dilemma to Growth – Both Up and Down

• Very often when size changes, there is slow recognition of its occurrence

• …until the form begins to develop stress points which requires some degree of change

• A parish’s form operates within boundaries, but when we transition up or down in size, reasonable expectations of operating are disrupted

• Dilemma: How do we focus our efforts and resources?1-3

How Comfortable Are You During Change?

• In general, we are uncomfortable recognizing and adapting to change

• Today we’ll look at what drives Good Shepherd’s current Size and Form by looking at our Geographics and Demographics

• First, a look at the National Episcopal Church

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U.S. Episcopal Church Growth (?)

• Change in active baptized members:– 2010 to 2011 = Decrease 28,861– 2011 to 2012 = Decrease 28,865

• Churches growing 10% last 5 years = 25%

• Churches declining 10% last 5 years = 41%

Source: http://www.episcopalchurch.org/sites/default/files/domestic_fast_facts_trends_2008-2012.pdf

- 58,000 in two years!

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Episcopal – Average Sunday Attendance

• % Congregations with ASA <100 = 68%

• % Congregations with ASA >300 = 4%

• % Change in ASA– 1 Year Decrease 2.7%– 5 Year Decrease 12%– 10 Year Decrease 24%

Source: http://www.episcopalchurch.org/sites/default/files/domestic_fast_facts_trends_2008-2012.pdf2-2

How Does COGS Count People?

In a variety of ways:

• Communicants: 833

• Baptized Members: 1529

• Directory List: 770 Adults 354 Children

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Counting Reality

• Nothing matches!

– 50% of Adults in Directory are neither designated Confirmed nor Baptized

– Majority of Children in Directory are:• In college• Out of school/working• Married

– For our purposes, we will use the Directory2-4

How Will We Define Church Size?

• Stair Step Approach

< 5050 - 125

125 - 250250 - 350Family

> 350Pastoral

Transition

Program

Resource

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Where Does COGS Fit in SIZE?

• In 2014, current ASA = 241 (including Easter)• ASA = 224 (without Easter)

< 5050 - 125

125 - 250250 - 350Family

> 350Pastoral

Transition

Program

Resource

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201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000199919980

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Average Sunday Attendance (ASA) – Good Shepherd

ASA

Family

Pastoral

Transition

Program

Resource

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Geographics and Demographics of COGS

1. How much has the area population size grown/declined the past 10 years?– What pattern is projected for the next 10 years?

2. How has the composition of the population changed during the past 10 years?– How is the composition of the population

projected to change?

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COGS Population by Home Address

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The Pull of “Competing” for Members

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ASA Trends in Adjoining Churches• St. Andrews– Steady 2002-2006 = ~375– Decrease 2006-2010 = ~285– Increase 2011-2012 = ~310

• St. Albans– Decrease 2002-2008 = ~275 to 190– Steady from 2009-2012 = ~190 to 210

• St. Barnabas– Decrease 2002-2009 = 175 to 125– Steady 2010-2012 = ~130-140

• St. Peters in the Woods– Decrease 2002-2007 = ~175 to 75– Increase 2008-2012 = ~75 to 155

Source: http://pr.dfms.org/study/exports/7701-0320_20140512_04523529.pdf4-3

Demographics – Recently and Projected

• Population– Less than 5% growth since 2000 – Less than 3% growth projected to 2022– Households steady – increase from larger families

• Race/Ethnicity– Remain same from present to 202260% Caucasian 18% Asian 13% Hispanic 6% Afr/Amer

• Aging Trend– Ave age risen from 36 to 38+ since 2000– Projected to be 41 by 2022

Source: http://pr.dfms.org/study/StaticPDFs/7/7701-0320.pdf4-4

Demographics Cont’d

• Phase of Life– As children age, they are leaving the area– While parents age in place

• Households and Children– Projected 2% increase in married couples with

children– Projected 2% decrease in single parent families

• Marital Status– 57% Married 31% Single 12% D/S/W

• Religious Practices– Imp. to attend 23.5% Considered spiritual 49.5%

Source: http://pr.dfms.org/study/StaticPDFs/7/7701-0320.pdf5-1

A Look at Children and Birth Rates

• U.S. birth rate now is 1.9 births per woman over her lifetime

• 2 births per woman is necessary to sustain the population on its own!

• Birth rate has been plunging since the recession started in 2007

• Projected to fall to a 25-year low this year and not recover to pre-recession levels anytime soon

Source: CDC & Pew Research Center5-2

Look at U.S Birth Rates – By Age Group

Source: CDC & Pew Research Center5-3

So, Where are the Children in Church?

• Of the 18-34 year olds– 22% say they have delayed having a baby because of

the weak economy– Another 20% have delayed getting married– Roughly one in four adults in that same age range

have moved back in with their parents during the economic downturn, after living on their own

• Of the families with children in the COGS directory: Average number of children = 1.8 !!

• …and, only 17% of families attending have school age, or below, children

Source: Pew Research Center

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Episcopal Fact: Households w/ Children

• If the percentage of households with children is less than 20%...

…then fewer than 1 in 5 churches are growing in size

Good Shepherd’s Households with Children = 17%

http://www.episcopalchurch.org/page/research-and-statistics

Research says:

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Charitable Giving

• Survey used 10 areas of charitable giving– % Households giving varied from 1.2% for Public TV

to 10.7% for Other– Churches were not broken out, unless it was a part

of “Other”!• In all categories, Burke giving by % of

households is much above VA as a whole

• Other reputable surveys note overall amount of charitable giving down for past several years– Economy since 2008 deemed primary reason

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A Look at COGS Pledging

• Using the Directory of Families:

– 45% of all listed families pledged in 2014

– 75% of families identified as “attending” services pledged in 2014

• Number of pledges show a steady decrease since 1990s

• Total pledge amount dropped since 2007

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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

100

200

300

400

500

600

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

Pled

ges

Pledge Dollars

Pledging at Good Shepherd

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What Does This Information Tell Us?

• How has our current size at COGS been driven by these other forces:

1. Our location in Burke?2. The NationalEpiscopal Church?3. National trends in family size?4. County trends?5. Charitable trends?

• What aspects of our form are being stressed?

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Where Does COGS FORM Fit into its SIZE?

• Let’s assess the church…where does each area fit against the definitions of size?

Worship Music C. Education Youth Pastoral Care Stewardship Building & Grounds Outreach Pre-School

Specialty Activities-e.g.

Players

Pastoral Size

Full Time Rector

Basic Services Musician

Part Time Secretary

Basic Janitorial Services

Transition Size

FT Rector

FT Minister of Education

PT Minister of Youth

Expanded PT Music Ministry

FT Secretary

PT Custodian

Program Size

FT Senior Rector

FT Minister of Education

FT Minister of Youth

Extended Music Ministry

FT + PT Secretary

FT Custodian

Intern

Resource Size

Same as Program Size

+ Specialty Associate Rectors

FT Business Manager

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Where Does COGS FORM Fit into its SIZE?

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Worship Music C. Education Youth Pastoral Care Stewardship Building & Grounds Outreach Pre-School

Specialty Activities-e.g.

Players

Pastoral Size

Full Time Rector

X X X X

Basic Services Musician

Part Time Secretary

Basic Janitorial Services

Transition Size

FT Rector

X

FT Minister of Education

PT Minister of Youth

Expanded PT Music Ministry

FT Secretary

PT Custodian

Program Size

FT Senior Rector

X X X

FT Minister of Education

FT Minister of Youth

Extended Music Ministry

FT + PT Secretary

FT Custodian

Intern

Resource Size

Same as Program Size

X X X

Plus Specialty Ass’t Rectors

FT Business Manager

Going Forward Considering Form & Size

• Literature says that one does not try to make multiple changes at the same time if growth is the goal– Way too disruptive and efforts are too diluted

• It does say to FOCUS on changing ONE important area that will have the greatest impact overall…what is COGS’ Focus?

• And, then be ready to adapt the form to meet our size as it changes7-4